Bernhard Commented On Larry's Superb Piece.

Yesterday, Larry demolished what passes in the US for main stream "journalism" by exposing utter BS they publish about Ukraine and SMO, specifically NYT and WaPo. 

The U.S. and European officials are relying on HOPE–hope that troop shortages and old, worn out equipment slow the Russian advance. A reporter worth a damn should have asked, “what is the evidence of troop shortages?” Russia is not a totalitarian state. Russia has not shut down opposition media and political parties. Ukraine has done that. So where is the social media showing a rising tide of disgruntled Russians being forced to put on the uniform and then being compelled to show up on the front lines without adequate training? I have not seen it. Have you? Please forward if you got it and please, no video game footage. That does not count. Are you familiar with the refrain, “If if and buts were candy and nuts it would be Christmas everyday.” That seems to be the position of the unnamed U.S. and European officials desperately hoping that Ukraine’s million man offensive against Kherson will succeed. Only several little problems. Ukraine is having a dickens of a time scraping together that mythical million man army. And if they do succeed in rounding up that many sentient fellows, how will they get proper training while Russia continues to hit Ukrainian training bases with missiles, rockets and shells? 

Read the whole thing at Larry's excellent blog. But Bernhard of MoA didn't just read Larry's piece, he, in typical methodical Bernhard's manner, expanded and provided some additional insights. As Bernhard states:

I am not going to join Larry in dispelling the myths those 'journalists' try to spread. These people do not go out into the field to look at the facts. They do not consult frontline maps, casualty statistics, structure of forces or economic data. They have no experience in the art of war. They are mere stenographers, highly paid ones, who hang on the lips of 'officials' and write down whatever the 'sources' who invite them want them to tell.

Exactly, and Bernhard lists those "sources" and then concludes:

What is terrifying about such pieces is that 'officials' in Washington and Europe are actually reading such stuff and come to believe in it. They are consuming the myths they themselves produce and then act on them. They thereby ignore history, basic facts and the very real life of the people who become casualties of their wars.

Exactly! Somebody, a few years ago, complained that Louis C.K., the comic, was doing his Russian "routine", laughing at Russia he visited in 1990s. In 2015-16 he still thought that it was the same Russia, he never even bothered to visit Russia in 2016 and he still thought about this grim crime-ridden miserable place he saw in 1990s. This is the problem for the US, including also the problem that overwhelming majority of the US decision-makers are civilians with humanities degrees who never served a day in the uniform and who have huge difficulties with grasping even basic physics and mathematics principles behind modern warfare and as a result they tend to rely on absolutely the same ignoramuses from US media, who are in the business of spreading BS. 

Sadly, even professionals, who should know better sometime don't know better. I was bombarded in the comments sections to my videos with questions like: but Prof. Postol says that Russian Early Warning System sucks compared to the American one.(c) After that even Douglas MacGregor repeats that, despite obviously missing the caveat by the same Prof. Postol that he was basing his opinion on late 1990s-early 2000s data. It has been more than 20 years since then. Remember? I had to write a separate post about this horrendous misperception.  

What is horrible here is the fact that many still do not grasp a fundamental difference between Russian and US ABM systems--Russian ABM system at this stage already is capable to mitigate a nuclear attack on Russia by fielding (no, not planning but actually deploying) systems with a full blown intercontinental anti-ballistic capability such as S-500, S-550, A-235 Nudol. These are capabilities the US simply doesn't have. Importantly, one needs a system of BMEWS radar with accuracy characteristics such as Voronezh to not just detect but provide accurate targeting for ABM systems. Look at the comparative characteristics of Russian and US BMEWS radar. Especially their accuracy in targeting. Guess from three times who gets better probabilities for a hard-kill (kinetic, meaning physically slamming into nuclear warhead) of the incoming MIRVs. Right. 

And this is just one example out of very many. Now to today's news, which reminds me the news from 1944 and Patton's (yes, yes, this "genius for war") Lorraine Campaign. 

Few of the Germans defending Lorraine could be considered first-rate troops. Third Army encountered whole battalions made up of deaf men, others of cooks, and still others consisting entirely of soldiers with stomach ulcers. The G2 also identified a new series of German formations designated volksgrenadier divisions. (See Figure 1.) These hastily constituted divisions numbered only 10,000 men each and possessed only six rifle battalions; in theory they were to be provided with extra artillery and assault guns to compensate for the quantitative and qualitative inferiority of their infantry. Two to 3 panzer divisions faced Third Army in a mobile reserve role, but these units had managed to bring only 5 or 10 tanks apiece out of the retreat across France.

Well, get a load of this per today's briefing by Russia's MOD. As Konashenkov states today:

«Из-за высоких потерь режим Зеленского принимает меры по восполнению некомплекта личного состава украинских формирований в районе боевых действий в Донбассе. Так, принято решение о досрочной отправке на передовую мобилизованных граждан, начавших подготовку в учебном центре 72-й механизированной бригады в городе Белая Церковь Киевской области. Вместе с ними направляются и находившиеся в госпиталях раненые, не дожидаясь завершения ими полного курса реабилитации после ранений»

Translation: “Due to heavy losses, the Zelensky regime is taking measures to replenish the shortfall in the personnel of Ukrainian formations in the combat zone in Donbass. Thus, a decision was made to send mobilized citizens to the front line ahead of schedule, who began training at the training center of the 72nd mechanized brigade in the city of Belaya Tserkov, Kyiv region. Together with them, the wounded who were in hospitals are also sent, without waiting for them to complete the full course of rehabilitation after injuries."

You get the picture. Once one starts drafting 65 year olds, it is everything one needs to know about the state of the affairs on the front. For references see again the Patton's Lorraine Campaign. I will also be talking about what modern ISR complex is, including this Western and fanboys' fetish of UAVs and how modern (I stress again--modern) ISR complex is way more (much-much more) than mere UAVs.  

Russia said it launched a military satellite into orbit late Monday. The footage allegedly shows a Soyuz rocket blasting off from the Plesetsk State Test Cosmodrome in the Arkhangelsk region in northern Russia, at 11:25 p.m. The Russian authorities stated that it was carrying a military satellite named "Cosmos-2558."

Yes, yes, can you imagine--those backward Rooskies can launch not just satellites, but launch them when they want and however they want, not to mention the fact that those satellites nowadays are built around Russian-made microelectronics. Here, Russians are getting ready to start launching Sfera-program satellites (Skif series) for a high speed internet for Russia. And, naturally, all Western components were fast replaced by Russian-made ones (in Russian). Louis C.K. I am calling on you, granted that nowadays West made traveling to Russia extremely difficult, just get visa and go visit Russia today and see the difference between 1990s and 2022--you know, will be good for your stand up routine and your OODA loop.

I Respect Douglas MacGregor, But...

... here is where I disagree with him dramatically.  

Not only I disagree with him, but many people in comments also disagree. The assertion that Russia's SPRN (missile attack early warning system) is somehow "nowhere near" the American one is dead wrong. I know where this assertion originated, professor Postol stated this a couple of years ago. And it is a complete malarkey. 

It is exactly the other way around, not to speak of the fact that the US was lagging in advanced early warning radar systems behind not just Russia, but Soviet Union already in 1970s and 1980s. The proof is in the pudding. American nominally "strategic" system GMD (I will omit here a dubious effectiveness of it) is "run" by the BMEWS and its "derivatives" detection and targeting contour, aka Solid State Phased Array Radar, including its latest AN/FPS-132 Upgraded Early Warning Radar, plus some launch detecting space based assets (satellites). Here is one of those, spread by the US across the world from UK to Qatar. 

The only claim that the US could use up to mid decade of 2000s was in allegedly "processing" power, but that is not the case anymore. And while most radar have the range of 3000 miles, roughly 5000 kilometers, here is Russia's modern SPRN. 

Here is Russia's older but still well designed Don phased array 360 degrees radar and some intro to Russia's ABM system. 

Here are some fresh (2021) explanations about venerable Don. 

Russia has modernized its unique Don-2N radar station located in the Moscow region, Yuri Anoshko, general director of the RTI Systems (Radio Technical and Information Systems) told RIA Novosti. “Now it is being tested. As a result of these works, the functionality has changed,” he said at the Army-2021 forum. He said that both quantitative and qualitative characteristics have changed but did not get into the specifics. The Don-2N station is part of the missile attack warning system and provides information to the anti-missile defense (ABM) of Moscow. The construction of the radar began in 1978, and in 1989 it was put into service. The antennas are installed in a concrete truncated pyramid, the height of an 11-storey building and with a base width of almost 150 meters. This is the only example of the radar system. The Don-2N radar is capable of detecting small-size ballistic missile warheads at long ranges, determining their trajectories, classify warheads and respond with heavy and light decoys, dipole reflectors, and active jamming.

But, of course, since 2010s Russia deploys an astounding variety of "BMEWS" radar such as Voronezh and here is 2018 "coverage":

With a very respectable overlaps and 100% (360 degrees) coverage of the threatening directions. Of course, Voronezh radar is just one of many other types which provide both early warning and targeting. And here is Russian TV network Rossiya 1 gives a comparison to, and you have guessed it, US latest AN/FPS-132.

 

You don't need to know Russian to see that Voronezh beats the best the US ever produced in "BMEWS" technology hands down. See especially the comparison with the error in targeting (developing target's coordinates). Voronezh--11 meters, AN/FPS-132--well, 120 meters. You know, the order of the magnitude less accurate, not to mention the fact of its inferior range. Of course, I am not even talking about a variety of radars Russia deploys for both ballistic and hypersonic targets such as Container radar which is full blown OTH (Over-the-horizon) system which sees everything on the ground and in the air at the range of 3000 kilometers. The United States literally looks like a backwater compared to those capabilities, not to mention the fact that, of course, the US has nothing (even considering its GBI) comparable to A-235 Nudol, not to speak of full anti-hypersonic defense capability which the US simply doesn't have and who knows when, or if, it will develop it.

This charade about Russia's ABM system in the US media is becoming really nauseating, especially against the background of S-500 beginning to be fully combat deployed and its radar is fully networked with both Voronezh and Don systems, as well as any other early warning radar system capable to allow S-500 radar to monitor the air and space to the depth of 3000 kilometers. With A-235 Nudol having its mobile version developed, and with S-550 getting ready to deploy--these are capabilities the US simply doesn't have. All listed above Russian systems are designed not only to intercept ICBMs but are fully capable of defeating hypersonic maneuverable blocks. I like this condescending tone in this article:

The unveiling by the Russian President Vladimir Putin of the new S-550 air defense system was a surprise because nobody to date knew the existence of this new anti-aircraft defense missile system. According information released by Russian military sources, the S-550 could be based on the S-500 Prometheus that was recently tested by the Russian armed forces. The missile system has been designed as an anti-missile and anti-space defense system. The S-550 will be able to intercept ballistic missiles at greater distance and altitude than missiles S-400 and S-500. It could counter the American THAAD and Aegis missile defense systems with SM-3Block llB missiles. At this time, there is no information about the characteristics and capabilities of the S-550. The S-550 could be fitted with new engine and using new fuel and can be equipped with an advanced computer systems able to analyze the trajectories of enemy missiles.

Obviously, comparing THAAD to S-500 with its 600 kilometer range and full low-orbit anti-satellite capability is a an exercise in arrogance because it is akin to comparing a VW Beetle to a 18-wheeler  truck. With S-550 (alleged) range in excess of 1,000 kilometers and who knows what other capabilities and all of those systems fully integrated into the netcentric ABM and AD defense capability--the US has NOTHING comparable to that. But in the end, with first RS-28 Sarmat ICBMs arriving to full combat duty by the end of this year and first Avangard regiment (soon, full division of RVSN) being already in full combat readiness near Orenburg, the US ABM system simply ceases to matter in case, God forbids, serious war. 

So, this silly talk of comparing Russia and US  early warning systems and what they provide should stop because those desperate attempts to grasp the last straw of the myth of the US military "superiority" is a waste of time and, in the end, doesn't serve well the reputation, in this case, of a very solid and important American military thinker such as very respected by me Colonel Douglas MacGregor. He is a good man and serious professional, but I am on record, and am ready to repeat it again: the United States lost the arms race to Russia, especially in matters of truly high-end systems in the foundation of a nuclear deterrents and early warning. Note: I didn't even address Russia's space based assets.