There Is No "Strategy".

NATO doesn't do strategy, in fact--most in it do not have even a fleeting grasp of what strategy is and how to match critical resources to political aims--you know, the reason why wars are fought. 

Multiple reports in Western news media highlight President Donald Trump’s growing dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Financial Times reported that Trump had encouraged Kiev to punish Putin by striking deep inside Russian territory—perhaps even hitting Moscow—if the U.S. provided it with more long-range weapons. (Trump has denied he supports such strikes.)  In marked contrast to the initial weeks of his second term, Trump has now effectively signed on to NATO’s uncompromising strategy of insisting on Russia’s capitulation with respect to the terms of a peace accord between Russia and Ukraine. The Western demands include Russia’s complete withdrawal from conquered Ukrainian territory (including Crimea) and its acquiescence to Kiev’s possibly joining NATO. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Admiral James Stavridis expresses the prevailing mentality of hardliners when he contends that sending Ukraine openly offensive weapons might be the most effective way to force Moscow back to the negotiating table.

Pentagon (I omit here amateurs from European armies) doesn't do strategy--one cannot do strategy based on own military fairy tales and Wall Street "economic" indices. But that is what they teach in NATO's military academies. So, Trump is free to sign on whatever it wants, but it gives me a great pleasure to point out, despite our irreconcilable differences on Russian history of the the 20th century, our almost word in word assessment of the Western militaries. 

You cannot overcome this cultural and mental block, period. And let's state very clearly, in fact, stress it--a MAJOR factor driving speeches and actions of such people like Stavridis or Keane is an insufferable professional jealousy and envy. Just to demonstrate another one fairy tales narrator from the US military--now Army Europe Chief General Donahue:

We know what we have to develop and the use case that we’re using is you have to [deter] from the ground,” he said. “The land domain is not becoming less important, it’s becoming more important. You can now take down [anti-access, aerial-denial] A2AD bubbles from the ground. You can now take over sea from the ground. All of those things we are watching happen in Ukraine.” For example, Donahue noted, Kaliningrad, Russia, is roughly 47 miles wide and surrounded by NATO on all sides and the Army and its allies now have the capability to “take that down from the ground in a timeframe that is unheard of and faster than we’ve ever been able to do.”

Somebody has to explain to him, that everything he was taught and knows about "war" (he never saw one) is largely police operations' mangled pseudo-strategic BS. I guess he still doesn't understand that the pivot of all US Army Field Manuals those proverbial "long-range fires" are not even in the same universe with what Russian Army fields today. And if he wants to "take" Kaliningrad, Russia will take out first any column of NATO troops moving towards Kaliningrad and if that will not help, she will take out Washington and most US bases around the world. But then again, this is the simple truth I try to convey for the last decade--choose your own league. Roger Waters gets it when explains that the US doesn't understand who did it get itself entangled with, but he is a musician--granted, a genius one--evidently US generals don't.  

When M.K. Bhadrakumar Forgot A Small Detail. Dmitry Orlov on NATO.

He wrote an excellent, insightful post on the issue of Germany and her aspirations. He makes an astute observation:

The hypothesis that the Anglo-Saxon axis is pivotal to the proxy war in Ukraine against Russia is only partly true. Germany is actually Ukraine’s second largest arms supplier, after the United States. Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a new arms package worth 700 million euros, including additional tanks, munitions and Patriot air defence systems at the Nato summit in Vilnius, putting Berlin, as he said, at the very forefront of military support for Ukraine.  German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stressed, “By doing this, we’re making a significant contribution to strengthening Ukraine’s staying power.” However, the pantomime playing out may have multiple motives. Fundamentally, Germany’s motivation is traceable to the crushing defeat by the Red Army and has little to do with Ukraine as such. The Ukraine crisis has provided the context for accelerating Germany’s militarisation. Meanwhile, revanchist feelings are rearing their head and there is a “bipartisan consensus” between Germany’s leading centrist parties — CDU, SPD and Green Party — in this regard.

Bingo! After that he elaborates on the territorial issue--the ever-present Europe's malaise and precedes it with this guy's statement:

In an interview in the weekend, the CDU’s leading foreign and defence expert Roderich Kiesewetter (an ex-colonel who headed the Association of Reservists of the Bundeswehr from 2011 to 2016) suggested that if conditions warrant in the Ukraine situation, the Nato should consider to “cut off Kaliningrad from the Russian supply lines. We see how Putin reacts when he is under pressure.” Berlin is still smarting under the surrender of the ancient Prussian city of Königsberg in April 1945. ... Evidently, Kiesewetter’s remarks show that nothing is forgotten or forgiven in Berlin even after 8  decades. Thus, Germany is the Biden Administration’s closest ally in the war against Russia.

And here is this forgotten detail: Russians also have a very good memory, in fact it is better than that of Germany, enough to take a look at May 9 celebrations across Russia, and are keenly aware of Germany's wet dreams to "return" Kaliningrad, and follow Germany's militarization very attentively. Because of that, any Germany's attempts to instigate "cutting off" Kaliningrad will result in Germany ceasing to exist as a nation. Unlike Bundeswehr, which has been reduced to a toy force, Russian Armed Forces have all, and the best, tools at their disposal to finish German militarism once and for all. Which brings us to an excellent piece by Dmitry Orlov about NATO, where he explains WHY Zelensky was treated at NATO summit as an outcast and why Pentagon is very unhappy. 

Dmitry arrives to the same conclusion as I do in terms of NATO weapons' "performance". 

So, what did the Ukrainians do to raise the ire of the Pentagon so suddenly, and as a direct consequence, fall into disfavor with NATO? In short, the Ukrainians demonstrated that NATO's weapons are crap. Evidence of this built up slowly over time. First, it turned out that various bits of US-made shoulder-fired junk — anti-aircraft Stingers, anti-tank Javelins, etc — are rather worse than useless in modern combat. Next, it turned out that the M777 howitzer and the HIMARS rocket complex are rather fragile and aren't field-maintainable. The next wonder-weapon thrown at the Ukrainian problem was the Patriot missile battery. It was deployed near Kiev and the Russians quickly made a joke of it. They attacked it with their super-cheap Geranium 5 "flying moped" drones, causing it to turn on its active radar, thereby unmasking its position, and then fire off its entire load of rockets — a million dollars' worth! — after which point it just sat there, unmasked and defenseless, and was taken out by a single Russian precision rocket strike.This was sure to have seriously pissed off US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, whose major personal cash cow happens to be Raytheon, the maker of the Patriot. Yes, the Patriot proved useless using the First Gulf War, where it failed to protect Israel against ancient Iraqi Scud missiles; and it proved useless later on when it failed to protect Saudi oil installation against ancient Yemeni Scud missiles... but you aren't supposed to advertise that fact. And now this!

 

And to top it all off, the German-donated Leopard 2 tanks and the US-donated Bradley infantry vehicles, not to mention the silly French wheeled non-tanks, performed absolutely miserably during the recent Ukrainian efforts to approach, never mind penetrate, Russia's first line of defense. Rubbing salt into the wounds, Putin remarked off-the-cuff that Western armor burns rather more easily than the old Soviet-made stuff.

Exactly. Just to demonstrate what even latest Leopard-2 tanks are, find (easy to do) the photos of one or two Leopards with their turrets' armor snapping apart just from... the explosion of 152-mm shell nearby. It is downright breathtaking. Ah, this vaunted German quality and engineering. Do you want to ride into the battle in such a dud? Do you think latest Abrams will do better? Or can you imagine the impact of the burning Challengers on the fragile British public's mental state? There you go. Dmitry is absolutely correct: NATO weapons were supposed to be super-pooper, as even some fanboys on this blog's discussion boards try to profess, but poor poor dears--they still cannot grasp this simple truth that I stated a few years back: 

The partial answer to some of these rather dismal failures of American military technology is that those weapons never had to be realistically effective since they were never used in actual defense of the United States. Russian military technology was honed in non-stop fighting against external enemies, including those such as Napoleon or Hitler, who, at the time, occupied leading military technological and operational positions in the world. In the Russian view, the weapon must work since the nation’s survival depends on it and that is what dominates Russian military-technological thought. Effectiveness, cost/effectiveness ratios and reliability were and remain defining characteristics of Russian weapons. Surely, Russians have managed to produce their own share of questionable weapons or pursue questionable technologies, but Russian military history is too violent to allow commercial and profit considerations to eclipse what mattered and matters the most—the weapon must reliably kill. 

And do not even start me on the issue of Field (Combat) Manuals and fighting doctrines. Read Dmitry's excellent piece in full and especially his deciphering of NATO post-summit communique. This is your Weekend primer.

Self-explanatory.

A few points for the day. This is self-explanatory. 

Three Mig-31 supersonic interceptor aircraft carrying Kinzhal air-to-surface hypersonic missiles have been deployed to Russia’s western exclave of Kaliningrad, the country’s Defense Ministry has announced. On Thursday, the planes were relocated to Chkalovsk airfield in Kaliningrad Region as part of “additional strategic deterrence measures,” the ministry explained. During their flight, the Mig-31s worked out interactions with Russian forces stationed in the area, as well as the naval aviation of the Baltic Fleet, it added. The planes will be placed on 24/7 combat duty in Kaliningrad, according to the Defense Ministry.

With Kinzhal's own range of 2,000 kilometers, it is clear what is in store for NATO C2 centers in case they decide to play stupid game.

Considering the ability of Kinzhal, as was demonstrated in Ukraine, to penetrate very deep into the ground, such as was the case on many occasions, especially against reinforced underground targets, this also becomes self-explanatory and sends a clear message.  

Also, for those of us who still doubt a catastrophic state of VSU, here is the first hand account, which corroborates many serious analysts' estimates of losses, which partially is confirmed by Kiev regime. 

МОСКВА, 18 авг — РИА Новости. Киев значительно занижает свои потери в спецоперации России, среди украинских военных уже числятся около 200 тысяч погибших, заявил РИА Новости один из лидеров запорожского ополчения, командир отряда "Троя" Владимир Новиков с позывным "Алабай". "Это мое сугубое мнение, думаю, порядка 200 тысяч "двухсотых" (погибших. — Прим. ред.) и больше 300 тысяч раненых, которые уже не вернутся в строй", — сказал Новиков. По словам командира отряда, он использует различные источники информации. "По совокупности информации могу озвучить такие цифры", — отметил он.

Translation: MOSCOW, August 18 - RIA Novosti. Kyiv significantly underestimates its losses in the Russian special operation, among the Ukrainian military there are already about 200 thousand dead, one of the leaders of the Zaporozhye militia, the commander of the Troy detachment, Vladimir Novikov, with the call sign Alabai, told RIA Novosti. "This is my personal opinion, I think about 200 thousand" two hundredth "(dead. - Approx. ed.) and more than 300 thousand wounded who will not return to duty," Novikov said. According to the commander of the detachment, he uses various sources of information. "Based on the totality of information, I can voice such figures," he said.

That explains quite well a hysterical reaction of neocon cabal, such as this yesterday's desperate and risible piece by all those great "strategists" in The Hill. 

US must arm Ukraine now, before it’s too late 

This juxtapositions itself quite well against yet another testimony about US weapons being not exactly as they are constantly advertised and of which I wrote three books. 

Efficiency of US missiles in Ukraine questioned.Radar-killing AGM-88 HARM missiles will have only “limited impact” on the battlefield, an expert believe. 

Now, before saying anything about RT using Business Insider "experts" as a source, it has to be stated that US MSM in general DO NOT have real military experts, firstly, because there could be no experts on tactics and operational matters among the graduates of the journo and communications schools and, secondly, the level of the American military "expertise" as performed by all those generals, colonels and "intel" people in 90% of cases is appalling in its ignorance and lack of understanding of modern war and Russia. And yes, US military "technology" is largely a failure in a peer-to-peer environment. So, as is expected a lot of butt-hurt and consumption of copium. And, thanks to my friend Mile Krupa, Mr. Mearsheimer, for all his accomplishments, continues to demonstrate a complete ignorance of the realities of modern warfare in his piece in Foreign Affairs. Mearsheimer, having no clue about what the current state of military balance in Europe is, speculates how the US can get involved directly into the conflict.

A more likely scenario for U.S. intervention would come about if the Ukrainian army began to collapse and Russia seemed likely to win a major victory. In that case, given the Biden administration’s deep commitment to preventing that outcome, the United States could try to turn the tide by getting directly involved in the fighting. One can easily imagine U.S. officials believing that their country’s credibility was at stake and convincing themselves that a limited use of force would save Ukraine without prompting Putin to use nuclear weapons. Alternatively, a desperate Ukraine might launch large-scale attacks against Russian towns and cities, hoping that such escalation would provoke a massive Russian response that would finally force the United States to join the fighting. The final scenario for American involvement entails inadvertent escalation: without wanting to, Washington gets drawn into the war by an unforeseen event that spirals upward. Perhaps U.S. and Russian fighter jets, which have come into close contact over the Baltic Sea, accidentally collide. Such an incident could easily escalate, given the high levels of fear on both sides, the lack of communication, and the mutual demonization.

Mearsheimer, a graduate of the USMA at West Point in early 1970s is still stuck in... 1945 and continues to drink Kool-Aid from US media, not understanding what state the VSU are in and not understanding that Russia maintains an overwhelming escalation dominance and ability of a strategic maneuver by force. But he speaks with a confidence on this:

What about the ultimate form of escalation? There are three circumstances in which Putin might use nuclear weapons. The first would be if the United States and its NATO allies entered the fight. Not only would that development markedly shift the military balance against Russia, greatly increasing the likelihood of its defeat, but it would also mean that Russia would be fighting a great-power war on its doorstep that could easily spill into its territory.

Unlike Mearsheimer, I am largely up to date on general view of Russian military on Western military "power" and, having an engineering degree am all ears and eyes trying to hear from Mearsheimer some details on WHAT force and HOW can NATO muster to attack Russia. Don't expect a professional answer from Mearsheimer, because he still thinks that it is 1980 and NATO can do a Reforger type thingy. He doesn't understand, that in order to fight Russia conventionally in Eastern Europe NATO, headed by the US, will need a force around 1 million ground troops with adequate equipment and C4ISR to even have a shot at not being defeated outright--a task impossible in principle, not to mention the fact I would like Mearsheimer's "forecasts" on matters of the US daily losses, in thousands KIAs and WIAs daily, on reconstituting a draft in the US, on the combat readiness of the US ground troops and, in the end, on all those "sophisticated" weapons which the United States is simply afraid to provide not because they are just afraid, and the US is afraid, of real escalation, but because all of those "sophisticated" weapons do not work in real. 

I do not expect from Mearsheimer any assessment of operations of RuAF, Air Defense or Navy--he doesn't know it--but maybe he will have enough integrity for stopping spewing an absolutely sophomoric amateur BS on subjects neither he, nor his "political science" environment, have any clue about. In the end, he better learn that it is the United States, not Russia, who is very use of nuclear weapons biased nation precisely because it is incapable of planning and executing anything even remotely similar to SMO. But then again, I don't know if he studies real military history of the world, not BS they teach in Ivy League circle jerk on American exceptionalism. As Mike correctly concluded: "Mearsheimer better concentrate on writing about Israeli Lobby". Agree 100%, this is his field and he better resign himself there: real history, warfare, practical geopolitics, real Russia studies and operational art are not his forte. 

In related news: my book is out in Poland.

Germany is next. This is your primer for today.

North-South.

As most of you know, I am only marginally interested in the everyday "tactical" minutiae of SMO, because now it is mostly ruthless extermination of what's very little left of VSU and sorting out these co called Territorial Defense Troops of Ukraine which are nothing more than modern iteration of the Volkssturm and have no chance against LDNR forces, let alone regular Russian Army. But while this situation is ongoing, some other very important things happen elsewhere. No, I am not talking about Turkey removing veto for Finland and Sweden joining NATO--in a larger scheme of things it changes very little for Russia. But this, below, does:

Following agreements reached during the January official visit to Moscow by Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, to further develop and deepen bilateral relations between Iran and Russia, the countries have decided to jointly revive the North-South Transport Corridor. This decision has become particularly relevant against the background of the unlawful sanctions policy pursued by the United States and its Western allies against Russia and Iran, and Tehran’s and Moscow’s desire to establish trade routes that are not linked to the West. In order to implement this decision, Iranian authorities are seeking to revive the recently stalled International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project, which traverses Russian and Iranian territory and the two countries’ waters to connect with Asian export markets. As the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported on June 11, in order to implement the International North-South Transport Corridor, the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) has initiated the transit of cargo from Russia to India or to South Asia through the project, using just one consignment note for the entire transit route.

This is this corridor. 

Geopolitical ramifications are huge for the region, especially when both Iran and Azerbaijan, which will have new railway built connecting Russia and Iran, capable to handle large rail traffic of cargoes ranging from wheat to oil, to metals etc. As article notices:

The International North-South Transport Corridor emphasizes the Russian port of Astrakhan and the Iranian Chabahar as bases for further transport to Eurasia. The development of the latter, as well as the construction of a large petrochemical complex and an export terminal near the port of Jask, are projects being implemented by the Iranian government as part of the Mokran coastal development strategy. Nevsky Shipyard, which produces multipurpose dry-cargo ships of RSD49 (deadweight of 7150 tons, container capacity of 289 TEU) and 005RSD03 (container capacity of 225 TEU) projects, is also engaged in the work of the North-South transit corridor in building ships for the Caspian Sea.

This brings us to the part of Russia's shipbuilding industry which concentrates on construction of those River-Sea vessels, like these:

Nevsky Shipyard has the order for 10 of these, other shipyards also build those or similar to them transports. Caspian Sea may get even busier in terms of marine traffic in coming years. This is a very important piece of news. Together, of course, with EU now trying to "resolve" Kaliningrad "blockade" and promising to iron out details in a few days.

VILNIUS/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Trade through Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad could return to normal within days, two sources familiar with the matter said, as European officials edge towards a compromise deal with the Baltic state to defuse a row with Moscow. Kaliningrad, which is bordered by European Union states and relies on railways and roads through Lithuania for most goods, has been cut off from some freight transport from mainland Russia since June 17 under sanctions imposed by Brussels. European officials are in talks about exempting the territory from sanctions, which have hit industrial goods such as steel so far, paving the way for a deal in early July if EU member Lithuania drops its reservations, said the people, who declined to be named because the discussions are private.

Of course, they are private. In the West everything now is private and secret because public is completely excluded from any "democratic" process and should know only one thing--how unified and powerful combined West is, because, obviously, the reality is exactly opposite. But who cares about reality in West's political "elite"? I doubt many can even grasp it. But they surely are very "cultured". 

Ben Wallace has said Vladimir Putin is a “lunatic” with “small man syndrome”, as he accused him of trying to change history through “violence and invasion”.

I believe Ben Wallace is a typical representative of British "elite"--barely educated and low-cultured, and I am on record on the "quality" of Sandhurst "products". They are good for barking, not very good for real fighting against real enemies. I guess Wallace senses this, being a defense secretary of a toy army of a toy country. Pink Floyd were wrong when singing about "hanging on a quiet desperation is the English way". Ben Wallace's desperation is that of a bellicose and verbose jester at the plastic throne.

Why? Would You Ask?

Very simple--embarrassment. 

MOSCOW, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia on Friday accused the United States of brazenly threatening it after a senior U.S. general said Washington had drawn up a plan in case it needed to destroy air defences in Russia's Kaliningrad exclave in Europe. U.S. General Jeffrey Harrigian said on Tuesday that "If we have to go in there to take down, for instance, the Kaliningrad IADS (Integrated Air Defense System), let there be no doubt we have a plan to go after that," the Breaking Defense magazine reported. Kaliningrad is a Russian region that lies on the Baltic Sea between EU members Lithuania and Poland. Moscow captured the region from Germany towards the end of World War Two. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova criticised the comments by Harrigian, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe, at her weekly briefing in Moscow. "Firstly we consider this a threat. Secondly, we consider such statements to be absolutely irresponsible," she said. Russia's Ministry of Defence rejected Harrigian's assertion and said the region was well defended."The region of Kaliningrad is reliably protected from any aggressive 'plans' developed in Europe by U.S. generals passing through," it said in a statement.

Actually, the response in Russia was much harsher than reported and included this:

Поставленные в Турцию зенитные ракетные системы С-400 способны «десакрализировать» американские истребители F-35, заявили в Минобороны России. Ведомство заявило, что Калининградская область надежно защищена от любой агрессии, подчеркнув, что возможности системы ПВО «хорошо известны всем натовским пилотам, приближавшимся к воздушным границам РФ на Балтике», передает РИА «Новости».«В полной мере это касается и «невидимых», только для американских налогоплательщиков и зарубежных покупателей, американских истребителей 5-го поколения. Трепет и волнение Пентагона по поводу вероятной десакрализации истребителей F-35 турецкими же расчетами ЗРС С-400 небезосновательны», – отметило ведомство. 

Translation: "S-400 systems delivered to Turkey are capable to desacralize  American fighters F-35 was stated in MoD of Russia. MoD stated, that Kaliningrad Region is reliably defended against any aggression and underscored that capabilities of Air Defense System there are known to NATO pilots approaching Russia's air border over Baltic Sea, RIA News reports. In full measure this also covers "invisible", primarily for American taxpayers and foreign buyers, US 5th generation aircraft. Pentagon's trembling and worries about possible "desacralization" of F-35 by Turkish combat teams operating S-400 are not without justification."

But why such a spike of militant rhetoric? Here is why:

courtesy of Ria.Ru

The area of oil refineries had a complete radar field with excellent overlap (redundancy) by: Patriot PAC-2, PAC-3 and Aegis. Not a single missile was launched at relatively slow (subsonic) and fairly conventional drones. Not a single one! OK, I get it, I am not politically correct and I never hid my contempt for Saudi military and their modern war skills or, rather, lack thereof. But there was a number of modern detection and AD systems in the area which failed to react!!! How could this be? Russia MoD was flat out unemotional when stated yesterday (in Russian): because they do not match declared capabilities. And in English, here.  Attack on Saudi oil facilities became a dramatic confirmation of this fact. I can wax technical whatever I want here, including discussing dead (blind) zones on elevation for Patriots with 7 degrees on elevation above horizon, or about the fact that sector aiming is still needed to be performed, as opposed to Russian S-series AD systems where missiles are launched vertically and then take "a ride on the beam" towards target.  

Is this whole affair an embarrassment? Of course it is, especially when such people like Mike Pompeo begin to come up with technically illiterate lame excuses thus rubbing salt into already badly wounded ego. Can he at least shut up for a minute? Now, we are all not kiddies here, we all understand that ramifications are much greater that even rising risks of war in the Gulf Region, albeit give DJT a credit where the credit is due--he at least holds his ground, for now, in terms of attacking Iran. No, I am talking about the mid to long term ramifications for American military technology and, as an inevitable result, further acceleration of a departure form already lost to a large degree position of only superpower. So it is not surprising at all that Saudi Prince called Moscow immediately after the attack. Evidently General Jeffry Harrigian could not control his frustration and spilled the beans in a sense of classic Sun Tzu: paraded his weakness. Recall this great quote from Senator Fulbright: 

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….”   

The doubt has turned into a strong conviction globally now and this has all signs of an impending and recognizable complete collapse of the remnants of Pax Americana.