Showing posts with label US bases. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US bases. Show all posts

Friday, January 24, 2020

A Bit On Iranian Boeing And Other Business.

I. Going back to the unfortunate (tragic, really) downing of Iranian commercial B-737 in the wake of Iran's missile strike at US bases in Iraq in response to murder of General Soleimani. I maintain and will continue to maintain my position that Iranian missile from Tor-1 which downed this Boeing was launched due to:

a) Mounting pressure on combat crews of AD complexes around Tehran in anticipation of the American response which never came;
b) Possibly not a very good training of crews and failure to follow procedures (which procedures, that matters). 

And here is a clue that Iran was correct in anticipating of some sort of US response after missile strikes. Let's Russia's Sergei Lavrov speak.
Российские системы ПВО-ПРО контролируют воздушно-космическое пространство вокруг России на тысячи километров. Об этом заявил Сергей Лавров, сказавший о том, российские средства ПВО смогли обнаружить у границ Ирана шесть истребителей F-35 через несколько часов после ракетного удара по американским базам. По словам и.о. главы МИД РФ, "в это время в воздухе на границе с воздушным пространством Ирана было минимум шесть F-35. Эта информация еще требует перепроверки, но подчеркивает всю нервозность ситуации".
Translation: Russia's air-defense-anti-missile systems control air and space around Russia for thousands of kilometer. This was stated by Sergei Lavrov, who also stated that Russia's air-defense systems detected six F-35 fighters near Iran's border several hours after Iran's strike on US bases. In his words:"this time, in the air, near Iran's air border, there were minimum six F-35s. This information needs more clarification but it underscores the nervousness of this situation." 

Cannot get any clearer than that. But this also brings fourth couple of important issues: 

1. Trump, as POTUS, needs, ahem, just teeny-weeny bit better explanation on how things can and DO go wrong when people make stupid and irresponsible decisions;

2. Russia's tracked "invisible" F-35s thousands kilometers away using latest radar Container.  

While Russia's ability to detect, track and develop firing solution on VLO targets is news mostly for flag-waving fanboys, one thing which is noted by establishment Rossiskay Gazeta where the article originated is this:
А если говорить по Ирану, то у нас просто нет соглашения об обмене данных по противовоздушной обороне. Возможно, придется их заключать.
Translation: If to speak about Iran, we (Russia) do not have an agreement on the air-defense data exchange. Possibly, we need to have one.

Now the question, could Russia's NTSUO (National Defense Control Center) have at least tipped Iranians about incoming F-35s? Not only it is possible, it is very-very likely. Iranians, most likely, being under stress over anticipation of American attack, simply overreacted. Which, indeed, brings up the issue of Russia covering Iran's air space by early warning umbrella, thus allowing Iran to have track and targeting on any type of targets. That means, making Iran's aerospace largely impenetrable. But that is a whole other story in itself. This also shows that present and upcoming air-defense technologies not only are capable of detecting all those "super-invisible" targets, but able to track them and provide targeting. I do not need to comment on that anymore. 

II. One of the traits of Putin's leadership, which also manifests itself increasingly as time goes by, is his principle of making Russophobia an extremely expensive luxury for anyone who exercises it. Poland fits the bill perfectly. I will omit writing too much on this issue but as you may recall--I state non-stop that Holocaust, that is deliberate annihilation of Jews did happen, it is just that some numbers should be adjusted for Jews who actually died fighting and that Jewish Holocaust was not the only one. Slavs were deemed untermensch also and were murdered on an industrial scale. Read this piece by Israel Shamir to get a scoop on what really is going on.
BTW, Israel DOES have now monument to people of Leningrad (this is not to mention May 9 being Israel's national holiday). 

Poland, meanwhile, equates USSR to Nazi Germany and desecrated monuments to Red Army soldiers who died liberating Poland from Nazism. Plus, of course, there is this "teeny-weeny" fact of Poles taking a very active part in murdering Jews and Russia is declassifying those archive documents as there is no tomorrow.  You see, and that is the whole point, Russians tried not to "disturb" memories in Soviet times in order to preserve a degree of harmony between various nationalities populating USSR. Such as trying to downplay a huge role of Ukrainian nationalists not only in helping Hitler, but excelling at murdering civilian population such as they did to Khatyn, among many other places. They repeated it in 2014 in Odessa. Now it is Poland's turn to face her own REAL history. 

In the end, it was the Red Army which liberated Auschwitz and many other places where horrendous atrocities had been committed against civilian population. Somebody tries to rewrite history. Not so fast. In the end, many world leaders will attend Moscow on May 9, 2020. Even Trump is considering a trip, granted he will not be betrayed by his "own" party. If he survives impeachment, he may find trip to Moscow to be most desirable. Where will Polish delegation be on May 9, 2020? In reality, nobody cares. After all, Russians and Nazis, in accordance to Polish "historiography", are the same. So, let it stay this way in Poland. Just expect few more skeletons being taken out of Warsaw's closet. And then there is Ukraine, but that shithole of a country requires a separate post (not that I want to do it) dedicated to it and pro-Polish agenda of US former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski who fvcked it royally up for the United Sates on so many fronts that it may require a separate Ph.D level study of this "American" allegedly "scholar" contribution to a current American crisis. Not to mention a complete destruction of Russian-American relations.      

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

First Impression.

From what I gather so far, it seems that Iran went for "capability demonstration" strikes on US bases in Iraq. Considering the fact that statements about Iranian missile forces getting into battle mode were made publicly at least 24 hours in advance, that gave ample time for US personnel to "take cover". It will take some time before actual information on the damage will trickle down into public domain, but one fact is absolutely clear. Bernhard of MOA is spot on with his assessment: 
Exactly. Moreover, and that is extremely important, if to believe a number of sources, not only the Al Assad base:
And rumor has it that salvos were not only by intermediate range ballistic missiles but cruise missiles too. Apart from obvious and well justified statement of the simple operational fact that Iran can reach anywhere in the region, it is also clear that American Air Defense is not going to be any factor in case of a larger (hopefully not) conflict and the US military for the first time in its post-WW II history finds itself in uncharted territory of its rear and staging areas being merely fat and prestigious targets. As I write in my latest book:
In general, Western elites have huge issues of grasping the realities of a missile age. And, as the above example shows, it seems they will fail to do so in the future, still viewing the possibility of a conventional conflagration between NATO and Russia as very distant from any damage to London, Brussels or Washington D.C. Nothing could be further from the truth but that is what continues to constitute a main obstacle for many NATO and Pentagon planners—the myth of a completely secure rear in a conventional scenario.
Iran just demonstrated that she can hit whatever she wanted, whenever she wanted and that she has more than ample means to do so. As was stated on many occasions by me--Iran IS NOT Iraq. So, Donald Trump has now an option--to deescalate immediately and fire most of his "National Security" team, especially kicking out this cretin Pompeo. I have a suggestion to Trump, if he wants to stay not impeached and not convicted and to have at least some chance to get re-elected: hire both Douglas Macgregor as your National Security Adviser and make Tucker Carlson your Secretary of the State. How about that? Otherwise, we all may get a very real war which WILL make Vietnam look like a summer day picnic by comparison. Iranians are not bluffing here, they, however, definitely called Trump and his cabal of imbeciles' bluff. You all know what that means. So, if this semi-literate bloviating creep Hannnity thinks that:
I have some news for this moron--yes, this is exactly not only what they think, they KNOW that they can do this and so does Pentagon. But Hannity's, who dropped out of university and surely would have difficulty learning basics of Operational Theory doesn't know that. It is expected from a guy who started his adult life by running house painting business (nothing wrong with that) before moving into the BS, I am sorry, talk radio--ample "qualifications" for strategic planning (/sarc). 
    
In related, positive and peaceful, news Russia and Turkey officially launched the Turkstream pipeline. Ah, yes, the butt-hurt is already palpable. The Suez Moment in slow motion. If we all avert the war--there will be a good reason to light up a cigar and pour a shot or five of Jack on the rocks. At least, let's hope.   

UPDATE: Summary:
Our missiles are big, powerful, accurate, lethal and fast...The fact that we have this great military and equipment, however, does not mean that we have to use it.
Yes, US missiles are big (what's the deal with him constantly underscoring this fact, wink, wink), they are accurate and fast--so let's settle on that but I support his message: agree, it absolutely doesn't mean that US has to use it. Back away from this mess and, please, purge your Cabinet of all kind of creeps who are yearning to God Damn start Armageddon and are waiting for Rupture because they are not really Christians but some fvcked up totalitarian cult which may get us all killed. And yes, Russia, whose active role in averting a disaster will be acknowledged soon will be laughing all the way to the bank.