Showing posts with label shot down. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shot down. Show all posts

Friday, January 24, 2020

A Bit On Iranian Boeing And Other Business.

I. Going back to the unfortunate (tragic, really) downing of Iranian commercial B-737 in the wake of Iran's missile strike at US bases in Iraq in response to murder of General Soleimani. I maintain and will continue to maintain my position that Iranian missile from Tor-1 which downed this Boeing was launched due to:

a) Mounting pressure on combat crews of AD complexes around Tehran in anticipation of the American response which never came;
b) Possibly not a very good training of crews and failure to follow procedures (which procedures, that matters). 

And here is a clue that Iran was correct in anticipating of some sort of US response after missile strikes. Let's Russia's Sergei Lavrov speak.
Российские системы ПВО-ПРО контролируют воздушно-космическое пространство вокруг России на тысячи километров. Об этом заявил Сергей Лавров, сказавший о том, российские средства ПВО смогли обнаружить у границ Ирана шесть истребителей F-35 через несколько часов после ракетного удара по американским базам. По словам и.о. главы МИД РФ, "в это время в воздухе на границе с воздушным пространством Ирана было минимум шесть F-35. Эта информация еще требует перепроверки, но подчеркивает всю нервозность ситуации".
Translation: Russia's air-defense-anti-missile systems control air and space around Russia for thousands of kilometer. This was stated by Sergei Lavrov, who also stated that Russia's air-defense systems detected six F-35 fighters near Iran's border several hours after Iran's strike on US bases. In his words:"this time, in the air, near Iran's air border, there were minimum six F-35s. This information needs more clarification but it underscores the nervousness of this situation." 

Cannot get any clearer than that. But this also brings fourth couple of important issues: 

1. Trump, as POTUS, needs, ahem, just teeny-weeny bit better explanation on how things can and DO go wrong when people make stupid and irresponsible decisions;

2. Russia's tracked "invisible" F-35s thousands kilometers away using latest radar Container.  

While Russia's ability to detect, track and develop firing solution on VLO targets is news mostly for flag-waving fanboys, one thing which is noted by establishment Rossiskay Gazeta where the article originated is this:
А если говорить по Ирану, то у нас просто нет соглашения об обмене данных по противовоздушной обороне. Возможно, придется их заключать.
Translation: If to speak about Iran, we (Russia) do not have an agreement on the air-defense data exchange. Possibly, we need to have one.

Now the question, could Russia's NTSUO (National Defense Control Center) have at least tipped Iranians about incoming F-35s? Not only it is possible, it is very-very likely. Iranians, most likely, being under stress over anticipation of American attack, simply overreacted. Which, indeed, brings up the issue of Russia covering Iran's air space by early warning umbrella, thus allowing Iran to have track and targeting on any type of targets. That means, making Iran's aerospace largely impenetrable. But that is a whole other story in itself. This also shows that present and upcoming air-defense technologies not only are capable of detecting all those "super-invisible" targets, but able to track them and provide targeting. I do not need to comment on that anymore. 

II. One of the traits of Putin's leadership, which also manifests itself increasingly as time goes by, is his principle of making Russophobia an extremely expensive luxury for anyone who exercises it. Poland fits the bill perfectly. I will omit writing too much on this issue but as you may recall--I state non-stop that Holocaust, that is deliberate annihilation of Jews did happen, it is just that some numbers should be adjusted for Jews who actually died fighting and that Jewish Holocaust was not the only one. Slavs were deemed untermensch also and were murdered on an industrial scale. Read this piece by Israel Shamir to get a scoop on what really is going on.
BTW, Israel DOES have now monument to people of Leningrad (this is not to mention May 9 being Israel's national holiday). 

Poland, meanwhile, equates USSR to Nazi Germany and desecrated monuments to Red Army soldiers who died liberating Poland from Nazism. Plus, of course, there is this "teeny-weeny" fact of Poles taking a very active part in murdering Jews and Russia is declassifying those archive documents as there is no tomorrow.  You see, and that is the whole point, Russians tried not to "disturb" memories in Soviet times in order to preserve a degree of harmony between various nationalities populating USSR. Such as trying to downplay a huge role of Ukrainian nationalists not only in helping Hitler, but excelling at murdering civilian population such as they did to Khatyn, among many other places. They repeated it in 2014 in Odessa. Now it is Poland's turn to face her own REAL history. 

In the end, it was the Red Army which liberated Auschwitz and many other places where horrendous atrocities had been committed against civilian population. Somebody tries to rewrite history. Not so fast. In the end, many world leaders will attend Moscow on May 9, 2020. Even Trump is considering a trip, granted he will not be betrayed by his "own" party. If he survives impeachment, he may find trip to Moscow to be most desirable. Where will Polish delegation be on May 9, 2020? In reality, nobody cares. After all, Russians and Nazis, in accordance to Polish "historiography", are the same. So, let it stay this way in Poland. Just expect few more skeletons being taken out of Warsaw's closet. And then there is Ukraine, but that shithole of a country requires a separate post (not that I want to do it) dedicated to it and pro-Polish agenda of US former National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski who fvcked it royally up for the United Sates on so many fronts that it may require a separate Ph.D level study of this "American" allegedly "scholar" contribution to a current American crisis. Not to mention a complete destruction of Russian-American relations.      

Friday, June 21, 2019

I Didn't Want To, But I Might As Well.

Yes (sigh), Iran shooting US drone. I hate commenting on these things. Pure and simple: US wanted the response to her probing "action". Iran delivered the response. US has nothing to follow on with, honestly. What are the US options here? To launch a volley of Tomahawks and JASSMs at Iran, specifically at Bushehr, Tehran, what have you? So, some JASSMs will leak through, blow some buildings, damage some military installations, kill some Iranian military, possibly civilians? Then WHAT? I heard (do not even want to browse internet for that) the figure of 2000 sorties a day floating around supposedly required for "punishing" Iran, that is allegedly bombing her into the stone age. Good luck with that, considering the fact that Iranian Air Defense is not third-rate, at least. And then, of course, the air war against Iran will fast move into the territory the United States doesn't want it to go--attacks on US, Saudi and Israeli targets in the Middle East. Iran, unlike Iraq, has means to respond. 

Now, Pompeo's recent visit to CENTCOM in Florida was primarily to twist hands of US military which is very reluctant to get into the actual shooting war with Iran--after all, they are military professionals and they know how to calculate and what to expect. Trump doesn't want that war? Probably he doesn't, but being an utter amateur in military-political field he cornered himself by:

1. Assembling his so called national (in)security team consisting mostly of ignorant chicken-hawks and Israeli-firsters;
2. By constantly bloviating about how great personally he, Trump, and America are, capable of...exactly what?  

So, now media report that Trump pulled away from the precipice of the war on Iran in the last minute. Sure, in Trump's world it stands for statecraft. In the rest of the world it means an empty threat-mongering and chest-thumping ending, now predictably, with a whimper. Truth is, the United States doesn't have resources to attain any sensible political objective with Iran. US military knows it, again--they, unlike it is the case with Trump, Bolton or Haspel, were taught operational planning of scale. As with Venezuela, it all fast degenerated into the media circus yet again, while in the process making Trump and his Admin look like a bunch of amateurs. Oh, wait...

In the good news, if to believe "lefty" media sewer such as Daily Beast, it is now Tucker Carlson who advises Trump and Carlson's position is clear--he is in open opposition to Bolton-Pompeo gang and is decidedly anti-war figure. If true--good! I think Tucker is on several orders of magnitude more qualified to be National Security Adviser than this dangerous loser Bolton. Hey, Donald, do you hear me? Remove Bolton and offer his job to Tucker. In fact, I am sure Tucker will be good as the Secretary of the State too--way better than the grey mass of the so called American "diplomats", who are primarily Hillary's leftover bureaucrats who are incompetent. So, here it is. I hate, no really, I hate commenting on some launch sequence and firing solution in whatever Iran used (locally updated ancient Hawk missile complex?) to shoot down slow and radio-contrast target. The game is much larger than that and if Trump really wants to get his second term--he better learn how to govern really, not for the consumption of the mass media. And he better stay away from ANY military provocation against anyone. OK, done, over, let's move on.