Those Good Ol' Systems.

Some people are in distress over yet another, how to put it politely, less than satisfactory performance by Israeli weapon systems. 

MOSCOW (AP) — Syria's air defense forces shot down seven out of eight missiles launched by Israeli warplanes during a raid that targeted the Syrian province of Aleppo, the Russian military said Tuesday. Rear Adm. Vadim Kulit, the head of the Russian military's Reconciliation Center in Syria, said that four Israeli F-16 fighter jets targeted facilities southeast of Aleppo in Monday's strike. Kulit said seven of eight missiles launched by the Israeli fighter jets were downed by Syrian air defense units that used Russia-supplied air defense systems Pantsyr-S and Buk-M2. One missile damaged the building of a scientific research center in Safira, he said. A Syrian military official previously said in remarks carried by the state news agency SANA that Israel carried out an aerial attack in the Aleppo province late Monday. He said that Syrian air defenses shot down most of the missiles in the attack that occurred just before midnight.

By now it became a routine, really. Israel gets its combat aircraft into the international air space and launches missiles at allegedly Iranian assets in Syria. Syrians, most likely, get early warning from Russians and then shoot down most of the missiles by S1s and Buks. Give Syrians Air Defense a due credit--they are getting really good at it. Obviously such numbers are very disturbing for the Israeli and the United States Air Forces which get a bit of a taste of what even fairly straight-forward and not newest, to say the least, Air Defense can do. Now, even when linearly extrapolated on Russian Air Defense, one gets a very good feel about "leakage" rates and survivability of attacking aircraft in case of real shooting war. A very low probability of such a survival. 

While the whole world discusses new Russian fighter whose first flight is scheduled in 2023 (in Russian), and, as it turned out, what is being shown to public IS NOT a static mock up but an actual aircraft which will take to the skies in 2023. I can hear cries from pain (you know, butt-hurt) from many quarters and I can hear Almaz-Antey laughing all the way to the bank. Now, about this 7.5 ton payload--rumor has it that this number is ONLY for the internal bays. If true (will know soon)--it is an amazing aircraft. Kyle Mizokami, being an ignorant journo that he is, tries, however, to put a good face on:

Could Checkmate indeed, uh, checkmate the F-35? It’s way too early to tell. But if UAC can keep costs down and stick to its development schedule, it could hurt the F-35 in the foreign sales market. The F-35 is the equivalent of a Mercedes Benz, but there are plenty of countries that would be perfectly happy to have a Hyundai.

For Myzokami:

The US Air Force Quietly Admits the F-35 Is a Failure

To call this barely flying POS a "high end" and compare it to Mercedes is an insult to good engineering and combat experience. On the other hand, Mercedes, together with most German cars, consistently takes the lead as one of the least reliable and monstrously expensive vehicles to fix. Alleged Mercedes' advantages over "competitors" (Toyota laughs at such statements), it's dick enlargement factor and "luxury" to feed the ego of wealthy has zero real value, and since Mizokami mentioned Hyundai I saw a new Sonata two days ago on the parking lot of our local Safeway--it is a gorgeous car for a fraction of price and has it all. At least Mercedes, when it drives, can drive fast, "high end" F-35 cannot even fucking fly supersonic:

The F-35 Has a Problem With Going Supersonic, But the DoD Does Not Want to Fix it

Let alone have super-maneuverability and super-cruise, which new Sukhoi "Checkmate" has. But sure...  

To understand the level of butt-hurt, stupidity and delusion of these people, enough to listen to America's foremost "patriot" and "expert" John Bolton, who with a straight face delivered this few days ago. 

Former national security adviser John Bolton insisted on Friday that the United States had not lost the war in Afghanistan while criticizing President Joe Biden’s order for a full military withdrawal from the country. Bolton — who served as a high-ranking State Department official under former President George W. Bush at the time of the initial U.S. military invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001 — maintained that America’s armed forces did not lose the two-decade conflict, but had simply “walked away from it.” “We weren’t defeated,” Bolton told CNN in an interview. “You have to be defeated to lose a war. We’ve given up because we’ve lost patience. That’s a sad commentary about the current administration, but it’s not a defeat for the United States.”

Yes, of course, if F-35 is a "high end" and a Mercedes of the combat aircraft, then who can forget a brilliant "victory" in Vietnam and surely "not being defeated" in Afghanistan.The level of a butt-hurt is off the scale.

Why It Matters Very Little.

I mean Putin and Trump's meeting in Osaka. Here is one such reason:

Moscow and Beijing have inked an intergovernmental agreement to switch to national currencies in bilateral trade and boost cross-currency settlements up to 50 percent as they ramp up efforts to move away from the US dollar.The document was signed by Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and the head of the People’s Bank of China, Yi Gang, earlier in June, Izvestia reports.Moscow and Beijing are currently developing new mechanisms of cross-border payments between Russian and Chinese businesses, the newspaper said, citing a letter from Deputy Finance Minister Sergey Storchak to Anatoly Aksakov, the head of the financial market committee of the State Duma (lower chamber of Russia’s parliament). The two sides may settle payment gateways between their domestic alternatives to the traditional SWIFT system, Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) and China’s Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System (CIPS).

In the same time it is a very good move to invite Trump to celebrate 75th Anniversary of Victory in Moscow, especially if Western Allied troops will take part in the Red Square Parade too. In 2010 it did happen and it was a wonderful exhibit and experience, this is not to mention that scores of Americans, British, Canadians etc.  now attend Immortal Regiment marches not only in home countries but visit Moscow, St. Pete (Leningrad at Victory Day) and other Russian cities. 

I am, however, upset with Putin (wink, wink)--how could he on the eve of my next book's release steal my thunder, LOL. This is so unfair. 

Globalization and the ‘liberal idea’ have failed Europe and the US, while post-Cold War chaos is driving crises in Venezuela and North Korea, but was stopped in Syria, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview to FT. In a lengthy interview with the UK-based Financial Times on Wednesday, Putin candidly addressed questions about the Russian intervention in Syria – and lack thereof in Venezuela – as well as nuclear proliferation, North Korea, immigration policies in the US and Europe, Russian economy, relations with the UK, and the failure of what he called the “liberal idea” to provide for the people’s well-being.While the Cold War was bad, Putin told FT’s Lionel Barber and Henry Foy, “there were at least some rules that all participants in international communication more or less adhered to or tried to follow. Now, it seems that there are no rules at all.”

Vladimir Vladimirovich, don't do this to me anymore, please;-))) On a serious note, though, what possibly was missed, is when Putin explicitly called Merkel's immigration policy "a cardinal mistake" (in Russian), in his interview to Financial Times. I wonder what is his opinion on American immigration debate? I have a very clear idea, quoting Putin himself, humanitarianism is fine, "but what about interests of own population, when refugees count is not in couple-three dozens people, but is in hundreds thousands of those who arrive to Western Europe?"(c) So, who is more European, then? Some "lefty" psychos will call this "meddling" in Europe's internal affairs. It is not, it is a sentence and diagnosis of a political crime being committed against indigenous population of Europe, and white European-root population of the United States. Again, recall Putin's monologue at Valdai in 2017. I think, in the long run, he and many people in Russia do understand that Russia may become a refuge for European keen. Today, we can only see some foggy shapes of the emerging new world order, if we all avoid a war, we may see in 10 years an unrecognizable international system. As per Putin-Trump meeting, do not take much of it too seriously. Trump decided to let go at least informed adviser on Russia, Fiona Hill. Rumors are, some close John Bolton's creature will take the post. Wonderful.  

So? What's The News?

According to Guardian (yeah, I know, not the most reliable source of information or expertise), Trump's National Security Adviser John Bolton sabotages INF negotiations.  

John Bolton is pushing for the US to withdraw from a cold war-era arms control treaty with Russia, in the face of resistance from others in the Trump administration and US allies, according to sources briefed on the initiative. Bolton, Donald Trump’s third national security adviser, has issued a recommendation for withdrawal from the 1987 intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty (INF), which the US says Russia has been violating with the development of a new cruise missile.

The hell you say, draft dodger, neocons' neocon, war monger, a lawyer  and a coward, trying to get out of INF? I cannot believe this! Oh wait, I can, in fact I anticipated most of Trump's foreign policy agenda stated during election cycle to go down the drain pretty fast after he started firing his NS advisers left and right and, especially, turn it into the typical neocon delusion after DJT personally invited this Bolton guy to be in his Cabinet. 

As I, not for once, warned, Bolton is only good in operating within government bureaucracy, that is being a master of intrigue, manipulator and score-setter, with no actual expertise in any serious issue related to arms limitation, despite the fact that I know John Bolton not for once used bathrooms in both UN building in NYC, where he "served" as ambassador to...whatever, or in the buildings where the all kinds of arms limitations negotiations were held. Bolton, being a typical product of American political bureaucracy production line (Ivy League, "degree" in Law or Political "Science" or any other useless field) which is incapable of producing statesmen doesn't have any expertise in modern weapons nor fighting doctrine which they enshrine because Law Degree and knowledge of State Department bureaucracy are not good foundation for understanding a whole set of complex issues involved in arms limitations, even when one is "consulted" by actual experts from military to science-engineering filed. As empirical evidence demonstrates--in the US it doesn't work (not for once) in the last 70 years. Add here current POTUS, who loves military, precisely for the reasons of never serving in it, and now calling Jim Mattis a "Moderate Dog" and you get the picture. 

Russia knows that US in general, and Trump Administration in particular, are not treaty-worthy and there is no need to spend paper on signing any treaties with US, but what Bolton doesn't understand (he can't--it is beyond the grasp of people who have no serious military-academic and engineering background despite highest level of clearance) that posturing against Russia doesn't work. Trump, as usual, will huff and puff, and the US may even exit INF Treaty, or send whatever number of Carrier Battle Groups to Northern Seas across GIUK Gap--it all doesn't matter anymore. The issue is not just in weaponry which is simply beyond the grasp of US for many years to come, albeit there is an attempt to reverse decades of deindustrialization in the latest document. I didn't have the chance to review it in depth (just browsed it) but there are some good ideas in it but who and how will implement them is a whole other story. The issue is that Russia is a different nation--US elites simply are incapable to grasp it precisely for the reasons of them being badly educated, narrow-minded and very uncultured. Bolton is a perfect embodiment of that. So, let Bolton succeed. The results will be catastrophic for the US, not for Russia, but then again--inability to learn is a first indication of a very low intelligence and modern American elites have a very low intelligence. 

But look what real professional, US Army officer, combat veteran and former Professor in US Military Academy at West Point, Danny Sjursen wrote: 

Don’t Replace Nikki Haley at the United Nations. Let's just take our ball and go home---like we always do.

Just read the piece by true American patriot and real professional, who risked his life (unlike Bolton, Trump, Hailey etc.) for what he thought was for his country. It is a bitter piece, and I, as strange as it sounds, feel Sjursen's pain--America I knew is gone. Just some islands, however substantial, of human integrity and decency remain. Let the INF Treaty fail and let Bolton's name be written all over this failure.

"Another Mindless Crime"(c)

This line from Queen's Show Must Go On pretty much summarizes what is about to transpire and in order for me not to regurgitate same points any person with brain can understand, I give here a link to Colonel Lang's excellent analysis. 

The White Helmets are saddling up for another ride

And to his superb comment on what is going on and who Trump is in all that. 

IMO he is probably like a mushroom on this. Kept in the dark and fed horseshit.

In the comments to my latest piece on Grand Strategy at Unz Review I reiterated my old point:

I specifically pointed out that I am talking about current situation. Russian governance axiom for the last 100 years? Never again should some civilian cabal “rule” Russia. Only people with military-intelligence background, only with a very strong industrial-engineering, military or, generally, what is known in the West as “national security studies”, educational foundation should be in charge of Russia. Today, many from Russian elite are taught some crucial courses in Military Academy of General Staff–a timely and wise decision.

US elites, including at the very top are good only at PR and getting "elected"--remove Mattis, and the only people you have left in top echelon in the US are headless warmongering chickens who are utterly unqualified even for running a "public sanitation in the prison"(c). DJT, evidently, is not that great of a "master of a deal" when surrounding himself with a bunch of ambitious careerists who will sell him out for nothing, such as his Cohen guy did and John Bolton inevitably will. But then again--this is the ONLY human and professional material Washington produces anymore. In fact, Bolton is already at it and Trump has no clue. One has to, at this point, contemplate tongue in cheek Verhoeven's masterpiece at least semi-seriously.