For Those Who "Grieve".

I don't like Alexandr Kotz in a slightest--I know how he covered SMO--but when the man is right, he is right. It is in Russian (Google Translate will help). 

Мне не жаль сирийские власти. Я слишком хорошо помню, как в далеком 2012 году нас, российских журналистов, «щемили» на погранконтроле, выворачивая наизнанку весь багаж, изымали камеры и фотоаппараты. Потом шпыняли по кабинетам всевозможных министерств, прогоняя через нерешаемый ребус с получением различных бумажек-разрешений. А западных репортеров едва ли не носили на руках, пытаясь продемонстрировать либеральность взглядов на фоне восстания в Дераа. Это не мои личные обиды. В этом в том числе выражалось отношение к моей стране. Снисходительное, с закатанными глазами и брезгливо приподнятой верхней губой.

Потом мы спасли Сирию в 2013 году, если кто не помнит. Обама собирался накрыть ее ковровыми бомбардировками после химической провокации в Восточной Гуте. И усилиями российской дипломатии катастрофу удалось предотвратить. Отсрочить, как теперь выясняется. В 2015-м мы снова пришли на помощь Асаду, когда террористы были в пяти километрах от центра Дамаска. И как смогли, залатали это лоскутное одеяло, состоявшее из различных религиозных, социальных, запрещенных и не очень кусочков, между которыми росли противоречия. Появившееся было уважение в глазах «садыков» откатилось назад пусть и не до брезгливости, но до вынужденного терпения неизбежного. Как к кашлю при ковиде. 

Translation: I do not feel sorry for the Syrian authorities. I remember too well how, back in 2012, we, Russian journalists, were “squeezed” at border control, with all our luggage turned inside out, and our cameras and photo cameras confiscated. Then they hounded us around the offices of various ministries, putting us through an unsolvable puzzle of obtaining various papers and permits. And Western reporters were practically carried around in their arms, trying to demonstrate their liberal views against the backdrop of the uprising in Daraa. These are not my personal grievances. This, among other things, was an expression of their attitude towards my country. Condescending, with rolled eyes and a disdainfully raised upper lip. Then we saved Syria in 2013, if anyone doesn’t remember. Obama was going to cover it with carpet bombing after the chemical provocation in Eastern Ghouta. And thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomacy, the catastrophe was averted. Postponed, as it turns out now. In 2015, we came to Assad's aid again when the terrorists were five kilometers from the center of Damascus. And as best we could, we patched up this patchwork quilt, consisting of various religious, social, forbidden and not so forbidden pieces, between which contradictions grew. The respect that had appeared in the eyes of the "Sadiks" rolled back, if not to disgust, then to the forced patience of the inevitable. Like a cough with Covid.

Pay attention to how he describes SAA generals bestowing themselves with new stars and privileges for the victory which was won by Russians and Iranians primarily. Make your own conclusions, those who still retain a modicum of a common sense. Arab military, yet again, performed what is expected of them--decomposed and ran. I speak about it in my today's video.

Well, Arab Militaries...

 ... I want to remind AGAIN about the article by Colonel Atkine--Why Arabs Lose Wars. If one disregards the nonsense Atkine writes about Soviet Armed Forces, of which he has about zero knowledge, his delving into the nature of Arab militaries is valid, as are testimonies of a majority of Soviet/Russian military advisers who trained, as an example, Iraqi and Syrian militaries. I knew a few of them really well. 

Allegedly, these are "opposition" forces already in Presidential Palace in Damascus. 

Now, classic Arab apologetics starts with blaming everybody but themselves. Here is a classic Middle Eastern Army--selling itself to the highest bidder. 

The Syrian Army command announced on Sunday that President Bashar Assad’s 24-year rule has come to an end, according to a Syrian officer who spoke to Reuters. The announcement follows a rapid offensive by jihadist forces in the capital. The jihadists claim that Damascus is “now free of Assad” and are expected to make their first public statement via state TV, Reuters reports, citing two anti-government sources. In response to the political uncertainty, Prime Minister Mohammad al-Jalali stated that he is “ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people,” as quoted by Al Jazeera. He added that he remains at home and is inclined to support the continuity of government.

The question always is how much is worth Arab military high ranking officer(s) for betrayal. Evidently, as early as the  last week Iran (if to believe WSJ) told official Damascus about reducing its military aid and started removing command of some of its forces from Syria. Syrian Girl reports that SAA "was ordered not to fight". I don't doubt for a second that there was a high level military-intel treason, but let's also face the fact that if not for Russian and Iranian forces in Syria it wouldn't have survived by now. In other words--it takes outside forces to prop up most of regional militaries.

Now about hysterics re: Russia, especially by all kinds of "concerned citizens". If to believe reports about Assad family flying to Moscow (big if, though)--it becomes clear that Russia knew what was afoot. Fast advancement of the HTS forces and cowardly abandonment of Syrian towns and cities by SAA was not due to HTS military prowess but due to SAA ceasing to exist as a viable fighting force due to corruption, military incompetence, cowardice and treason--all classic traits of such militaries. But as I repeat ad nauseam--Russian bases in Syria ARE NOT there to "defend" Syria, let alone fight the war for Syrians... again. If Syrians do not want to fight for their country, neither does Russia, nor does Iran, as it should be. Is it bad? For Syria it certainly is, for Russia--let's wait and see. Because Syria for Russia is not a priority. 

Were Russian lives lost in Syria in vain? Absolutely, as far as the Syrian statehood is concerned--it is an undeniable fact and it merely reinforces a well established pattern of backstabbing being one of the major traits of the region. So, we have to wait and see how it plays out for Russia, but it is clear that Russia made a decision not to support official Damascus anymore, but Russia can reinforce her bases in the region if need be. The situation is very fluid and we need to be patient and very cautious in making conclusions before clearer picture emerges.

Sure...

 As AP reports. 

Jihadist groups in Syria have reached the suburbs of Damascus as part of a rapidly progressing offensive that has overrun some of Syria’s largest cities, the Associated Press wrote on Saturday, quoting opposition leaders and an Islamist commander. The Syrian presidency has refuted rumors that President Bashar Assad has left Damascus, adding that false reports of his departure from the Syrian capital have been spread by foreign outlets in an attempt to “mislead and influence” the country’s population.

This "source", should not obscure the fact that SAA performed dismally and, as is always the case with Arab militaries, has its general staff overwhelmed with panic. It is now very clear, that regular Arab armies, while having some competent and courageous people, cannot fight unless propped up by external force, such as Iranians and Russians. SAA left Palmira, or rather ran away from it. You can bet your ass on Russia's support for Damascus:

We are absolutely convinced of the inadmissibility of using terrorists like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to achieve geopolitical goals, as it is now being done by orchestrating the offensive in the Idlib de-escalation zone,” Lavrov stated on Sunday, after meeting with the Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers in Qatar.The foreign ministers of Türkiye, Iran, and Russia met in Doha on Saturday to discuss the lightning rebel advance in Syria.The militant group Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS), an offshoot of Jabhat al-Nusra, along with its allies, launched a surprise offensive against Syrian government forces last week, capturing large swaths of territory, including parts of Aleppo and the city of Hama. The Syrian military has redeployed forces to threatened regions, with the support of Russian warplanes.

The cultural problem with Arab militaries remains. Same goes for Western militaries which are good fighting wars only on paper or against said incompetent Arab militaries. But, as Larry notes astutely:

Damn Bernard at Moon of Alabama (just kidding)! He took the keyboard right out of my hand with his latest piece, U.S. Has Stopped Ukrainian ATACMS Strikes On Russia. That’s what I intended to write tonight. Instead of me regurgitating his piece, go read it. We learned yesterday that Russia’s top general, Gerasimov, called US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Charlie Brown, on November 27th. We do not know what was said in that conversation, but we do know that no more ATACMs, Storm Shadows or SCALPS have been launched into Russian territory since that conversation. You don’t need an advanced degree in logic to surmise that Russia warned the United States (and told them to pass it on to its NATO partners) that the Russian Oreshnik missile was a warning and that Russia would hit NATO bases if further attacks occurred. Guess what? Since that phone call, no more missile launches into Russia. Instead, Ukraine is still sending drones that are being routinely shot down. This means that the US and NATO are no longer providing attack coordinates to the Ukrainians. In this game of stare down, the West blinked.

This is the main news. And proceedings in Syria should be viewed only within this framework--desperation moves. Now Oreshnik goes to Belarus too. It has nothing to do with the range (Oreshnik's range cover all of Europe and Middle East)--it has everything to do with Russia exercising an overwhelming conventional escalation dominance over NATO. The only thing NATO has is to escalate to nuclear threshold, Russia, meanwhile, will be calmly continuing counting her escalation domination ladder steps conventionally--it is great when having almost a total freedom for maneuvering. 

P.S. We have our dearest friends from Russia staying with us and, as you may have guessed it, I am extremely busy. So, I apologize for going AWOL. Bear with me for a couple more days)).

Entirely Predicable.

As was expected and predicted, a new truce in Idlib was agreed upon by Russia and Turkey and it couldn't have been otherwise.  

A six-kilometer-wide security corridor is to be established in the area, with the militaries of the two countries given a week to agree all the details. Russian and Turkish troops will also be carrying out joint patrol missions along Idlib’s M-4 highway. The document, signed after the negotiations, underlined that both Moscow and Ankara remained committed to maintaining the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria. Both leaders acknowledged that the conflict in the country has no military solution and that it was up to the Syrians alone to decide the fate of their country. It was also agreed to facilitate efforts to prevent the humanitarian crisis in Idlib, while also creating conditions for the refugees to return to their homes.

I will remind you, all my online buddies and readers, again, through Deng Xiaoping's rephrasing of Clausewitz' dictum: "diplomacy is a continuation of the war by other means". You win on a battlefield, you get more at the diplomatic table, period. SAA in the last couple of weeks, granted with some help from Russia's VKS and SSO, handed Turkey its ass on a platter, showing that Arabs, after all, can do combined arms operations and SAA definitely dispels this long living (and often justified) stereotype that Arabs cannot fight modern war. Syrian Arab Army sure as hell learned a lot and, hopefully, when all this will be over, I cannot imagine how many Syria's heroes and military leaders will have, justly so, monuments erected in their honor. 

Erdogan could not, as some "experts" predicted, "dictate" anything to Putin for a simple reason--Russia has a damn good satellite constellation and SIGINT capabilities and can, and most likely did, point to Erdogan when, how and how many of his troops joined forces with Al-Qaeda outlets, thus also stating not only the obvious fact that Sultan is directly culpable in supporting Islamic Jihad, but also was given a description of what kind of casualties Turkish Army (nobody counts jihadists) will sustain if it continues to do what it did in the last couple of weeks. As I state non-stop for a long-long time, often contradicting even real Russian experts, who, actually MUST know better, Russia's first salvo of stand-off weapons would be enough to completely "switch off" Command and Control structure of a corps size force. Simple as that. All this even before any Russian VKS aircraft get busy blowing the shit out of those who think that they are smarter than everybody else. So, it is good that deescalation was agreed upon, let's see now how Erdogan will deal with the reality of his XXI century version of Ottoman Empire going down in flames. In the end, it is, indeed, only up to Syrians alone to decide what to do with their country.