About Power Projection.

And why it is done. Starting from 22:40 in otherwise excellent conversation between Larry and Alex Christophorou (of Duran), Alex makes an astonishing claim that in Mediterranean everything is lost for Russia and talks about sway and about Med being NATO and US lake.

For all my deep respect for Alex, here are some important points one has to consider and I will be blunt. 

1. Russians don't give a flying coitus about having sway anywhere--Greece, Germany or the US. Russia is not USSR and is not interested in the International Worker's Movement or International Socialist (and Communist) Movement. Russians don't give a fuck about being loved or respected in EU. Europe is Russia's existential enemy. Russia is strictly transactional--wanna do business? Fine. If you don't, well, feel free to find better deals elsewhere. Russians DO NOT buy all this crap about cultural "closeness", or common "Orthodox root" and shit like that--everybody has their price, look what $5 billion buys one in 404. Tsipras government demonstrated to Russians everything they needed to know about Greece. Tourism and a few Russophile clubs here and there in the EU are just that--clubs with negligible impact. 

2. As Paul Atreidis stated in Dune: "He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it". Soviet/Russian projection of power was always NOT about bombing the shit out of locals--this is the American idea of "projection of power". Russian idea in Med since post WW II was about a) Shipping Lanes Of Communication (SLOC) and free movement of commodities between USSR/Russia and her clients, b) to prevent the Med's flank from resupplying NATO forces in case of WW III. And here is the issue:

3. Alex speaks from the POV of how NATO people think, that is the problem, because--this is the thinking from the XX century school of geopolitics, which ignores completely a simple XXI century fact that Russia can sink ANY combination of the NATO Fleets, including any number of the US Navy's Carrier Battle Groups from Gibraltar to Bosporus and NATO can do nothing about it. Zero, zilch. Combined West is simply stuck in the 1980-90s military thinking and technology. 

A single frigate of Gorshkov-class with a single pr. 885 Yasen-class SSGN can, in a single salvo of 4 3M22Zircon each destroy two US Navy Carrier Battle Groups--none of those CBGs will know what hit them. Moreover, what is also missing from this outdated POV is the fact of a term which Vladimir Putin and Russian military professionals saying about Oreshnik--read attentively--it is a HIGH PRECISION weapons. That means that Oreshnik's hypersonic maneuvering blocks with the range of 5,500 kilometers can hit any types of targets on the land or in the sea. NATO navies, including US Navy's CBG can huff and puff, can simulate Alfa-strikes but all this is for naught because since roughly 2018 there is no NATO "lake" in Med with or without Russian bases there, because all of those navies are nothing more than fat prestigious defenseless targets. What matters the most, those who are not completely brainwashed in NATO navies know this. And this is why any attempt to sabotage Russian commercial activity supported by Russian Armed Forces can start with the demonstration of sinking some Euro-chihuahua ship, say French or Spanish FFG as a warning. 

Too bad Royal Navy's ships do not go to sea anymore--no, really and, yes, I am being facetious about sinking those. So, in this case, after Syrians (or whatever they consider themselves now) made their choice. Now they, ahem... LOL))

The new Syrian authorities are calling on the international community to intervene and help it stop Israeli strikes, the head of the Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) jihadist group, Abu Mohammed al-Julani, has said. In an interview on Saturday on the Istanbul-based Syria TV channel, Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is better known by his nom de guerre, spoke about Israel for the first time since taking over the country. Militant groups led by HTS launched an offensive against Syrian troops in November, capturing major cities and advancing towards Damascus. After the collapse of the Syrian military, Former President Bashar Assad fled the country and was granted asylum in Russia. Al-Julani said that “the Israeli arguments have become flimsy” and “do not justify their recent violations.” The HTS leader stressed that West Jerusalem has “crossed the lines of engagement” in the country, which might threaten an escalation in the region.

Don't you love it? Meanwhile Russia relocates a few assets to Libya, which is a critical location for expanding Russia's Saharan and sub-Saharan commercial and military activity. Just to demonstrate what Oreshnik's reach is in relation to Med...

Now, let's talk about whose lake the Mediterranean is. Remember: "He who can destroy a thing, has the real control of it"(c). Wise words. 

Well, Arab Militaries...

 ... I want to remind AGAIN about the article by Colonel Atkine--Why Arabs Lose Wars. If one disregards the nonsense Atkine writes about Soviet Armed Forces, of which he has about zero knowledge, his delving into the nature of Arab militaries is valid, as are testimonies of a majority of Soviet/Russian military advisers who trained, as an example, Iraqi and Syrian militaries. I knew a few of them really well. 

Allegedly, these are "opposition" forces already in Presidential Palace in Damascus. 

Now, classic Arab apologetics starts with blaming everybody but themselves. Here is a classic Middle Eastern Army--selling itself to the highest bidder. 

The Syrian Army command announced on Sunday that President Bashar Assad’s 24-year rule has come to an end, according to a Syrian officer who spoke to Reuters. The announcement follows a rapid offensive by jihadist forces in the capital. The jihadists claim that Damascus is “now free of Assad” and are expected to make their first public statement via state TV, Reuters reports, citing two anti-government sources. In response to the political uncertainty, Prime Minister Mohammad al-Jalali stated that he is “ready to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the people,” as quoted by Al Jazeera. He added that he remains at home and is inclined to support the continuity of government.

The question always is how much is worth Arab military high ranking officer(s) for betrayal. Evidently, as early as the  last week Iran (if to believe WSJ) told official Damascus about reducing its military aid and started removing command of some of its forces from Syria. Syrian Girl reports that SAA "was ordered not to fight". I don't doubt for a second that there was a high level military-intel treason, but let's also face the fact that if not for Russian and Iranian forces in Syria it wouldn't have survived by now. In other words--it takes outside forces to prop up most of regional militaries.

Now about hysterics re: Russia, especially by all kinds of "concerned citizens". If to believe reports about Assad family flying to Moscow (big if, though)--it becomes clear that Russia knew what was afoot. Fast advancement of the HTS forces and cowardly abandonment of Syrian towns and cities by SAA was not due to HTS military prowess but due to SAA ceasing to exist as a viable fighting force due to corruption, military incompetence, cowardice and treason--all classic traits of such militaries. But as I repeat ad nauseam--Russian bases in Syria ARE NOT there to "defend" Syria, let alone fight the war for Syrians... again. If Syrians do not want to fight for their country, neither does Russia, nor does Iran, as it should be. Is it bad? For Syria it certainly is, for Russia--let's wait and see. Because Syria for Russia is not a priority. 

Were Russian lives lost in Syria in vain? Absolutely, as far as the Syrian statehood is concerned--it is an undeniable fact and it merely reinforces a well established pattern of backstabbing being one of the major traits of the region. So, we have to wait and see how it plays out for Russia, but it is clear that Russia made a decision not to support official Damascus anymore, but Russia can reinforce her bases in the region if need be. The situation is very fluid and we need to be patient and very cautious in making conclusions before clearer picture emerges.