Monday, December 11, 2023

Patriot PAC3 Is Having...

... a very bad time against Kinzhals.  

Российские гиперзвуковые ракеты "Кинжал" нанесли удар по стратегическим объектам военной инфраструктуры ВСУ в Киеве - в частности, по американскому зенитному комплексу Patriot в левобережной части столицы Украины. Воздушная тревога была объявлена уже после поражения объектов. Это указывает на то, что терминальный участок траектории ракет пролегал под углом более 73 градусов к поверхности, в мертвой зоне многофункциональной РЛС американского комплекса MPQ-53/65, пишет "Русское оружие". Пикировать на цель вертикально, вне поля зрения систем ПВО - фирменный трюк многих российских ракет (например, "Искандера"). Также отсутствие своевременной реакции на ракетную атаку говорит об отсутствии на боевом дежурстве других радиолокационных комплексов, способных отслеживать сложные баллистические цели с малой эффективной поверхностью рассеяния.

Translation: Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles struck strategic military infrastructure facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kyiv - in particular, the American Patriot anti-aircraft complex in the left bank of the Ukrainian capital. The air raid alert was announced after the targets were hit. This indicates that the terminal part of the missiles’ trajectory ran at an angle of more than 73 degrees to the surface, in the dead zone of the multifunctional radar of the American MPQ-53/65 complex, writes Russian Weapons. Diving vertically onto a target, out of sight of air defense systems, is a signature trick of many Russian missiles (for example, Iskander). Also, the lack of a timely response to a missile attack indicates the absence of other radar systems on combat duty capable of tracking complex ballistic targets with a small effective scattering surface.

As I state ad nauseam--modern Western AD systems are legacy systems good only for dealing with relatively slow targets with "comfortable" flight profile. Arguably the best US AD missile, SM-6, is designed to intercept targets flying with the speeds of UP TO M=3. And even that is over the surface of the sea with well defined radio-horizon and "moderate" clutter. There is nothing NATO has which can deal with real hypersonic weaponry. The fact that yesterday the air raid siren was turned on AFTER the raid was over tells you not just that it was Kinzhal, but that it was possibly launched by Su-34. Usually, US ISR tracks the take off of MiG-31Ks and informs Kiev Regime. Su-34 is a different animal and it is difficult to define its mission. 

Here is the illustration of zones of intercept (kill zones) by S-400 and Patriot PAC 2/3. Pay attention to the left side of graph in order to understand that the inclination is a 2D representation of the "dead zone", a precise "cone" into which all those weapons like Kinzhal, Zircon, Iskander et al fly in. 

With their speeds (after burn out) reaching up to M=7 for Kinzhal and M=10+ for 3M22 Zircon--good luck intercepting them, granted you will be able to detect them at all, let alone have firing solution. And yes, Patriot is not even in the same league with S-300PMU2 let alone S-400, let alone S-300V4. 

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