Wednesday, February 28, 2024

There Is A Huge Difference ...

 ... between styling oneself and being one. Even Politico notices this: 

Macron is clearly styling himself as a statesman who can step into the breach in the mold of Italy’s Mario Draghi, who famously steadied the crisis-stricken eurozone with his pledge to do “whatever it takes.” Indeed, Macron echoed that very phrase on Monday: “We’re determined to do whatever it takes for as long as it takes.” The question, then, is: How far is Macron truly ready to go this time? His previous lofty rhetoric on Ukraine, after all, has not been matched by action. Most significantly, can he hope to prevail as a galvanizing Western leader if he fails to carry France with him? All French opposition forces have already rounded on him. Marine Le Pen, on the far right, has pilloried his assertion that Western troops in Ukraine “shouldn’t be ruled out” as toying with “the lives of [France’s] children,” while far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said it was “madness” to pitch “one nuclear power against another nuclear power.” More mainstream forces, such as the Socialist Party and the conservative Les Républicains, also condemned the French president’s muscle-flexing.

The problem with Macron is that he is a bank teller, Napoleon was an artillery officer. And he would do just fine if he would stay away from Russia, but no-o-o, he wanted it all and as a result Russians entered Paris in 1814. Russians do not want to enter Paris--there is nothing much to do there--St.Petersburg will do just fine, but if Macron wants the war with Russia, Russians may oblige. With France's 30 operational tanks and who knows how many... tens of Rafales flying--they will get a very warm reception. Melenchon also better learn about strategic ABM and why French nuclear deterrent which is operationally valid only through 4 SSBNs of Triomhant class may not be even that "deterring". I omit here 54 ASMP air-to-ground missiles with the range of 300 kilometers. Ah, this COFM (Correlation Of Forces and Means)--Russians love to calculate it. 

So, the result is--French chihuahua barked and everyone laughed. But French are determined, LOL.

For Jeanbart, Macron’s statement was more about “sending a message to diplomatic partners” after facing criticism for “his proximity” to Russia’s Vladimir Putin at the start of the war. 

Absolutely, it is all about "message" against the backdrop of military impotence of the US and NATO. But no worries, as one of my patrons sent me today, ask David Axe about Russian military tactics, LOL. 

During World War II, Japanese troops often resorted to human-wave attacks they hoped would overwhelm Allied troops. The Allies labeled these attacks “banzai charges”—and responded by opening fire with machine guns and mortars. Eighty years later in Ukraine, Russian troops are resorting to similar tactics. The difference now is that the Ukrainians are running out of ammunition, mostly owing to Russia-aligned Republicans in the U.S. Congress continuing to block U.S. aid to Ukraine.Infantry-first “meat assaults” are nothing new in Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, but the tactics are evolving. Noting the Ukrainians’ desperate shortage of artillery ammo, the Russians are betting that back-to-back-to-back waves of troops, riding in or on infantry fighting vehicles, can deplete Ukrainian firepower faster than the Ukrainians can deplete Russian manpower.

You may have already guessed it--David Axe. Great tactician and strategist from Forbes, who knows it all--he draws comic books about "war". Never in history did the country, the United States, destroy own military mythology with such a blazing speed through its media personalities who paraded themselves from losers such as Axe to four star generals as utter amateurs and sore losers. David Axe is one of the "brightest" of them all. 

Here is an interesting bit. Russians long ago identified NATO "advisers" in 404. Most of them cadre military--from pilots to operators of air-defense complex--but what is interesting: on the ground they are used primarily as the barrier troops shooting into the backs of retreating Ukies. They are identified by good training and... very low staying power, buckling under sustained pressure (in Russian). Now, consider yourself how "well" NATO regulars will do under sustained fires--no NATO serviceman experienced anything like this, except for the unlucky SOBs who sit in the tactical rear and force 404 cannon fodder into the meat grinder. That's everything you need to know about NATO armies. And, NO, they will learn very little, because wars are lost and won on operational and strategic level and that is beyond the grasp of NATO militaries because they do not have access to reliable data sets and the way Russians plan the war. 

They try, though, TRADOC released a voluminous publication ATP 7-100.1 Titled Russian Tactics, in which it states:

Russia pursues a global strategy driven by a desire to once again be recognized as a world power. Its foreign policy stratagems will endure beyond the current leaders, and it is highly likely that future Russian leaders will pursue these policies for the foreseeable future, given its institutionalization throughout the Kremlin and other bureaucracies. As a world power, Russia believes it can provide stability for countries on its periphery, particularly the former Soviet states, and influence international policy and law away from the liberal international system of the West. To achieve this end state, Russia will give priority to the following strategic objectives: maintaining regional dominance, ensuring protection and security of its national interests as well as the current regime, countering foreign interference, and recognition as a global power. 

Boy, those TRADOC guys, who lost all their wars, still cannot grasp a simple fact--Russia was great power before the United States existed as a country. No wonder they call Russia the enemy--her military history and achievements simply dwarf America's military record. It is an acute professional envy which drives these types of statements, especially against the background of learning a few details here and there and not seeing the whole picture.

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