Didn't Want To Do That...

But I was reviewing some things related to my videos and decided to answer the "criticism" (primarily trolling from IPSO losers from 404 and other trolls) about me "promising"  that Russia will not "invade" Ukraine. Well, because I am a fairly busy man, I didn't have the chance to address this, as well as other BS and justified "criticisms". So, allow me to bring you back to December 2021(that is why I love internet--preserves a lot) and remind you that I also was very active, not any more, at the Aftershock News--a popular Russian resource until I stopped writing there due to "Podolyakization" and decline of the level of this site during SMO. I have my renome to uphold and there is a lower limit below which I simply cannot afford to stoop. So, here is what I reiterated on 22 December of 2021 and that was from the original forecast made by me in November 2021. 

Возможность им говорить с Лавровым дали, они не поняли--пришло время говорить с Шойгу, а это, да, это очень неприятно. Но как бы там ни было, по 404 решение похоже приняли и это всё называется военно-дипломатическим сопровождением. Я ещё раз обращаю внимание--доминирование эскалации. Россия обладает полным доминированием эскалации в Европе. Ни НАТО в целом, ни США в частности, оным не обладают от слова совсем и в своём арсенале имеют только ОДИН инструмент--эскалацию к ядерному порогу. Всё. Все остальные силовые элементы только у России. Ну а чё--выбор огромен, от полноценного обнуления 404, до физического истребления "Азова", до ударов по НАТОвским объектам, да мало ли чего ещё.  

Translation: They (US and 404) were given the opportunity to speak to Lavrov, they did not understand - the time has come to speak with Shoigu, and this, yes, this is very unpleasant. But be that as it may, in regards to 404 the decision seems to have been made and this is all (Lavrov's statements) called military-diplomatic accompaniment. Once again, I draw attention to the escalation dominance. Russia has a complete escalation dominance in Europe. Neither NATO as a whole, nor the United States in particular, possess it at all and have only ONE tool in their arsenal - escalation to the nuclear threshold. That is it. All other power elements are only in Russia's possession. Well, what - the choice is huge, from a full-fledged zeroing of 404, to the physical extermination of "Azov", to attacks on NATO facilities, but who knows what else.

The reason I didn't express this in this blog (albeit I did hint on a number of occasions), I didn't want to be explaining myself constantly. So, good that I waited. Time did put everything in its place. Plus, at that time I was especially busy. So, it was clear that military action is coming already in early Autumn of 2021, the main question was the scale and it is clear now that the scale is "a full-fledged zeroing of 404". And then "discussions" of Russia's December 2021 ultimatum will commence. 

In related news, here is Larry talking to Steve Ericsson about many things like SMO, NATO, Russia what have you. As always, Larry does a great job.  Also, there were other 150 corpses of Nazis and VSU found in refrigerator (which was broken) in the deep recesses of Azov Steel, those remnants will be returned to Ukrainian side. We will not have realistic figures of Ukie losses for a while and most likely they will grow, not decline. It is clear that they are horrendous and Ukie propaganda is having a very difficult time hiding them from own people.

Life Is Coming Back In Mariupol.

 Graham Phillips' excellent report on restoration of Mariupol. 

In related news, some reports are circulating that some US senior officers from allegedly 4th Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) were spotted in Odessa and Nikolaev area, evidently "preparing" them for defense. Listen, I get it, the boys want promotions and humiliate those nasty Rooskies, but they are way out of their league. No, seriously. The US Army can show us any of its proxies in the last 20+ years being a competent force? Plus, I am sure, those in VSU who graduated military academies on still Soviet and immediate post-Soviet programs know way more than those "trainers". Not to mention the fact of many of those VSU trying to survive a real army in the last 3 months--an affair unfamiliar to the US Army in principle. Risible. As was stated not for once, those "advisers" there can only learn, not teach those who know more than their "teachers". 

The Essence Of Western Media.

LOL)) Thanks to PolitWera who posted it.

This is The Telegraph))) Hey, The Telegraph, how about employing people and "consultants" who have a clue? Nope? Ah, OK, I forgot, British media have no concept of shame or morality. Neither do American ones.

James Kunstler Notes...

... astutely, that:

Well, for one thing, we appear to be in a close race between Klaus’s controlled demolition of the global economy and the US midterm elections this November, and perhaps the gang perceives that won’t go so well for them. Their key project in the 2022 offensive, the War in Ukraine, isn’t working out, either. The idea, it seems, was to bog down and humiliate the Russians so as to bring on the defenestration of Mr. Putin, who, believe it or not and despite the tsunamis of aspersion loosed on him by WEF-funded propagandists, is strangely and actually a defender of Western Civ. Yeah, I know, a stunner, right? (God works in mysterious ways — but the Davos Gangsters don’t believe in him / her / they.)

I have been on record for years that the best what Western Civilization gave to the world survives today in Russia. For all (justified) distancing of modern Russia from contemporary West, it is Russia who is genuinely Western in civilizational sense than modern day Europe or the United States. Especially when one gets to the definition of Western Civilization, such as given by late Roger Scruton, who, incidentally, was a Russophobe.                           

"The roots of Western civilization lie in the religion of Israel, the culture of Greece, and the law of Rome, and the resulting synthesis has flourished and decayed in a thousand ways during the two millennia which followed the death of Christ"

What passes today for modern "West" is hardly Western in any meaningful sense and loses last connections to what Western mind and ethos were in the last 500 years, which gave us not only wars and suffering--characteristic of ANY civilization--but greatest achievements of science, art, industry and human spirit. Most of it is gone today in the combined West. Which is post-Christian not in a sense of the dwindling number of people attending church services on Sunday but in losing Christian ethics substituting it with terrifying menagerie of human anomalies in moral and physiological sense. This becomes evident to many people nowadays, and while Russia is not without her own blemishes of national character and life, what she represents today for many people around the world, is what the combined West was supposed to become but never did.                            

Bernhard Did An Excellent Write-up.

On this whole situation with VSU's "victories" and how Western media are beginning to recognize a horrendous truth (for them) behind demolishing of VSU, which at this stage is literally being pummeled into utter submission. Bernhard discusses fighting doctrines of Russia and NATO and notes (correctly):

'Western' doctrine, which is essentially U.S. doctrine, is betting on air supremacy. The enemy's air defenses get destroyed in first few days of the war. After that enemy formations get wiped out by applying a huge amount of aerial bombing against them. Russian doctrine never has believed in air supremacy. Russia itself has excellent air defenses so it knows what it is talking about. To destroy enemy formations Russia applies artillery, lots of it.

He also compares combat organization of the main fighting units of Russian and US armies and, again correctly, arrives to the state-of-the-affairs for VSU. 

Unless the defending forces are fully under armor or extremely well dug in, as they had been for eight years at the Donetsk frontline, they have no hope to hold out against Russian artillery. Since the Russian army broke through the immediate frontline the Ukrainians have lost the protection of fortified dugouts and are on the run.  None of the above is new and it was the reason why I and other could easily predicted that the Ukrainian army would lose the war.

Read the whole thing, it is an excellent write up from Moon of Alabama. 

In related news, as was anticipated, the US decided not to play with fire and the danger of own annihilation and stopped any silly talks about sending HIMARS to 404 and it is all for the better. The US still wants to send some kind of MLRS (maybe even same HIMARS) but with much shorter range munitions. As Dmitry Medvedev noted today: 

«Разумно. Иначе при атаке на наши города Вооруженные силы России исполнили бы свою угрозу и нанесли удары по центрам принятия этих преступных решений. Часть из них находится совсем не в Киеве. Что дальше – объяснять не надо»

Translation: Makes sense. Otherwise, upon attacks on our cities, Russia's Armed Forces would have delivered on their threat to strike these criminal decision making centers. Part of those centers is located absolutely not in Kiev. What would follow--no explanation is needed. 

So, there you go. Meanwhile VSU continues to do what it was doing for the last 8 years--using civilians as human shield an shelling civilian areas of liberated cities and towns in Donbass. In other news, Denmark and Netherlands decided not to pay for Russian gas in Rubles. Sure, no problem.

The threat of cutting off gas supplies, if not being paid in Rubles, is taking another casualty. Russian gas giant Gazprom has announced that it will stop gas supplies to the Netherlands by Wednesday, in a reaction to the refusal by Dutch energy trader GasTerra to pay in rubles.

Evidently, the concept of money and paying for goods and services is still not developed in these two nations at this stage of their historic development, but, I think, in a few centuries they may figure this principle out and whatever will be left of them will join the family of civilized nations. Same goes for the present CIA big honcho William Burns (the US so called "diplomat"), who tries to wax Russia "insiderish" but fails miserably due to an extremely low professionalism of the current US "diplomacy" and "foreign service", so, he triers himself as Putinologist--a euphemism for ignorant US "diplomats" who, as it is normal now, know nothing about Russia. Even after being ambassador to Russia as Burns did.  So, he states:

Half of Washington, D.C., is in the business of analyzing Vladimir Putin’s every word and move these days. But when CIA Director William Burns speaks of the Russian leader, an autocrat waging a brutal war on Ukraine, his words carry unusual weight. Putin is the epitome of a “peculiarly Russian combination of qualities”: “cocky, cranky, aggrieved and insecure,” Burns has written. The Kremlin chief is “an apostle of payback,” Burns has declared.

But even this sophomoric "journalism" from Politico notes:

Burns may be a good Putinologist, but even he didn’t predict how much the Russian leader would scramble the Biden administration’s foreign policy agenda.

I have news for these US "diplomats" and "journos"--there are NO real "Putinologists", let alone good level specialists on Russia, anywhere in D.C. Because there is no US diplomacy as art and as noble profession in principle. Most what US foreign policy establishment, including its "elite" schools produces as its "diplomats" is a grey mass of under-educated ignoramuses who learn absolutely nothing about outside world and the same goes pretty much to any institution in D.C., including CIA. Burns is not an exception. 

It is the clock-work of the US "elite" education and selection mechanism which is completely broken and, as a result, produces people who are utterly unqualified to carry out any tasks related to any actual governance, be it in political, economic, diplomatic or military spheres. So, whenever the phrase such as "but even he" is used nowadays I always smile, "even they" in D.C. drove the United States to the precipice due to their corruption, careerism and lack of any professionalism. May be they should stop trying to be "Putinologists" and concentrate on their immediate professional responsibilities, instead of spewing PR BS through media which are as ignorant and amoral as they are. Nah, not gonna happen...

German General Has An Opinion. So Does Russian General--They Are Close.

In the interview to Welt, no less, General Roland Kather arrived to this conclusion:

„Die Russen haben lokal eine bedrückende Überlegenheit erzielt“

Translation: The Russians have achieved an overwhelming local superiority. 

Then, the other political observer arrives to this conclusion. 

Der russische Präsident Wladimir Putin sieht nach Einschätzung des Politologen und Militärexperten Carlo Masala derzeit keinen Grund zu Verhandlungen mit der Ukraine. Putin werde erst dann ernsthaft zu verhandeln beginnen, wenn er befürchten müsse, durch eine Fortführung des Krieges mehr zu verlieren als zu gewinnen, sagte Masala, Professor für Internationale Politik an der Universität der Bundeswehr in München, der Deutschen Presse-Agentur. Genau das aber sei derzeit nicht der Fall.

Translation: According to political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala, Russian President Vladimir Putin currently sees no reason for negotiations with Ukraine. Masala, Professor of International Politics at the University of the Bundeswehr in Munich, told the German Press Agency that Putin would only begin to negotiate seriously if he had to fear that he would lose more than he would win by continuing the war. But that is not the case at the moment. 

 

Truth is, this hasn't been the case from the get go and the question is not only in the fact that military issue was settled from the onset of the SMO, but because, as I am stating ad nauseam, the issue is even larger than Ukraine alone. It is a massive, unprecedented clash globally and it is existential in nature. I am also constantly, also ad nauseam, on record that we MUST give the recognition to the fact that none of us has access to information which Russia's military-political top has. We have to constantly factor this into our considerations. And while RT in English continues to "treat" us to a sophomoric amateur crap from fringe self-proclaimed experts, like this--unreadable BS. RT in Russian offers to its readers opinions of people who, actually, DO know. Such as interview with Colonel-General Georgy Shpak. It is a proper opinion of a top-notch military professional and here are some snippets. 

About Poland:

— Поляки под национальным флагом не пойдут ни на Белоруссию, ни на Украину. В Донбасс, куда-нибудь на Львовщину или Тернопольщину могут отправиться наёмники, добровольцы, волонтёры — как их ни назови, но никак не военнослужащие польской армии. Польша входит в НАТО, а один выстрел со стороны НАТО в сторону России — это начало Третьей мировой войны. Это понимают все, и, думаю, Варшава получила из Вашингтона очень чёткую команду: не инициативничать. Америка не хочет погибнуть из-за Украины или из-за Польши. В глобальной ядерной войне, а именно такой неизбежно станет Третья мировая, победителей не будет. Что касается учений в Белоруссии, то это стандартные военные меры в ответ на проходящие по ту сторону границы манёвры натовских войск. Западный военный блок сейчас проводит их целыми сериями, одни за другими. Александр Лукашенко демонстрирует, что и он держит порох сухим.

Translation:  The Poles under the national flag will not go either to Belarus or to Ukraine. Mercenaries, volunteers, whatever you want to call them, can go to the Donbass, somewhere in the Lviv region or the Ternopil region, but not the servicemen of the Polish army. Poland is part of NATO, and one shot from NATO towards Russia is the beginning of the Third World War. Everyone understands this, and I think Warsaw received a very clear command from Washington: not to take initiative. America does not want to perish because of Ukraine or because of Poland. In a global nuclear war, which is exactly what World War III will inevitably become, there will be no winners. As for the exercises in Belarus, these are standard military measures in response to the maneuvers of NATO troops passing on the other side of the border. The Western military bloc is now conducting them in whole series, one after the other. Alexander Lukashenko demonstrates that he keeps his gunpowder dry.

Read the whole thing--it is professional. It also addresses the issue (hilarious one for those who understand how operations are planned) of "Russia running out of high-precision weapons", a favorite shtick of morons from Western media, who broadcast Ukie propaganda. Per "decision tree", I speak about it a lot in my videos. Here is your "media" primer for Sunday.

Plans Are Changing For The US. Larry Talks To Eva.

Plans are always changing, that is why General Staffs plan 24/7, non-stop. The US military doesn't know what real war is in which US servicemen are subjected to fire impact (ognevoe vosdeistvie) which comes from the enemy which has the means to shoot back, and effectively at that. The only advantage the US has now is the fact that its C4ISR beyond the territory of 404 is not touched by Russians yet. In real war with Russia the US would have its C4ISR disrupted and would lose a lot of its space-based assets. But we are not there yet, thankfully, and hopefully will not get there. But for the US the struggle in Ukraine is existential and unfolding military catastrophe for VSU reflects directly onto the US, which still reels from military humiliation in Afghanistan and, let's be very straight forward, pathetic performance of genuine US military technology supplied to Ukraine. Now this new crisis. Severodonetsk was taken by Russian Forces as Kadyrov reported (in Russian). 

So, what are you going to do, if you are CIA, State Department or Pentagon? Right, do what you always do, continue to support your very own SOBs and, preferably, widen the conflict. That's the "change of plans". The only way the US can "widen" the conflict is to continue to provide weapons to Kiev regime and hence the talk about Harpoons and now HIMARS. As I stated on a number of occasions, these deliveries will not change the outcome, but if HIMARS will be used against Russia's territory, we may have some very serious escalation by Russia and some of it will be very nasty for the US. Keep in mind, the US has very many assets and bases around the world. All of them are within the range of Russia's stand-off weapons and Russia will retaliate directly against both NATO members who delivered weapons, such as Danish Harpoons, and most US military bases will be under a direct threat of retaliation. 

And here is the issue: even Iran's retaliation against the US bases in 2020, after assassination of General Soleimani,  was an eye opener for the US. Russia's retaliation will be much more devastating and it may go without prior warning to the US side unlike it was done by Iran in 2020. But here is another issue: ATACMS and PrSM munitions for HIRAMS have ranges of 300 and 500 kilometers respectively. These are precisely the types of weapons which such AD systems as S-400, S-300V4 and later versions of S-300 have been created for. Putting aside already described retaliation by Russia, in case the US decides to pursue this suicidal "policy", which will not have any effect on the military outcome of SMO, which already ticking away towards US geopolitical defeat, even mitigation of the impact of such weapons by Russian AD will add weight to already well demonstrated US military, especially C2, and technological ineptness in 404 and the latest moves are nothing more than desperate convulsions in an attempt to prolong 404 (and own) agony. 

I am on record, Pentagon will not out-think Russia's General Staff no matter how they try and the US will continue on the path of "escalation" until it completely discredits itself militarily and technologically. US cannot afford Afghanistan 2.0 in Ukraine, because in absolute terms v. 2.0 is not applicable, because what is brewing in 404 will make Afghanistan 1.0's humiliation look like peanuts. Well, I guess the cards are dealt but Russia knows the game. 

Admiral Gorshkov today hit the surface target 1000 kilometers away by Zircon:

And it is just another demonstration of a huge and increasing gap in weapons which also is one of the major drivers behind US suicidal attempts to "fight" a proxy war in Ukraine. To do anything to get Russia mired in some sort of resources-consuming affair, not noticing that it is the US who loses both resources and status being involved, yet again, in the war it cannot competently execute. This also is reflected in today's interview of Vladimir Yermakov of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in Russian) about a dialog between the US and Russia on strategic stability and, especially, surprise, surprise, the US desperate desire not to allow Russia to have RS-28 Sarmat (too late for that) and Poseidon. In related news, everyone knows that the US is not agreement capable, if not altogether, governable, so Yermakov and his team are doing their motions. You know, "the forms must be obeyed". 

Here is also a wonderful interview of Eva Bartlett with Larry Johnson. Strongly recommend.

         

This is the type of journalism which is sorely missing in the modern West today. So, this is the primer for Saturday.

So, Simonyan...

... who herself is semi-literate (as most journos are) in any modern reality decided to finish flushing RT down the drain by offering the tribune to truly illiterate (I mean it) all-Russian imbecile with pedophile tendencies Yegor Kholmogorov. Next in RT list of "experts" are the remnants of Solzhenitsyn and seances with invocation of the spirits of General Krasnov and Ataman Shkuro (cadre SS officers).  

Egor Kholmogorov: The intertwined roots of history explain why Russia can't let go of Ukraine 

RT was going down the drain for a while now by means of its reserve of "experts" (such as Mr. Khodaryonok or Trenin), but this one tops it off. Simonyan (and her "team") obviously mistook their access to the fringes of Russian political power for their own talents, which they have very few. But then again, if medical doctors develop God Complex because they save human lives, journalists such as Simonyan develop such because they have no applicable real professional skills. The latest from RT is a perfect demonstration of this by invoking opinions of utter moron who barely lasted one year in Moscow State University  History department before dropping out even from this easy program. But then again, as they say in Russia: the fisherman recognizes the fisherman from afar, which is a euphemism for BSer recognizing a BSer a mile away. Simonyan just proved this truism beyond the shadow of a doubt. 

A Distraction Which Is Needed.

It is Friday and we cannot constantly be engaged with the serious and, sometimes, tragic matters. Even during the Great Patriotic War which was a horrendous event, people in the Soviet Union danced, they went to movies and there were even comedies. Human soul needs both distraction and nourishment. Here is the latest and freshest from incomparable Alan Parsons and Tommy Shaw from great Styx. Existential as always from Alan, whose music stood the test of time. 

"What is lost will be found 

As the serpent coils round and round 

Now the future’s the past 

In the grasp of the uroboros". 

Profound. As is always the case with Alan. Do not miss references to all Alan Parsons Project albums. 

Update. One of the best comments of all time:

 Слушал певца на работе без звука. Очень понравилось!

Translation: Listened to a singer at work. Without sound. Loved the song;)

I have to admit, the music is pretty good.

A Bit Of MIlitary Porn.

As it turned out, per reputable TASS (in Russian), ground version of 3M22 Zircon should begin arriving to the first line units by the end of this year. These are Navy's ground forces also known as BRAV (Beregovye Raketno-Artilleriiskie Voiska, Coastal Missile-Artillery Troops). Judging by the admirable efficiency of the ground-based Bastion with its 700 kilometers range P-800 Oniks supersonic missiles which saw action in both Syria and current SMO against land targets, arrival of M=9, 1,500+ kilometer range of Zircon in Crimea basically closes the whole Black Sea completely for any surface force and "controls" targets well into the NATO territory. 

Bastions become even more relevant once Danish (they say it is two trucks with 4 containers on them) U/A/RGM-84 Harpoons (if, of course) make it actually to any kind of deployable status in 404. Considering the fact that from the launch site by Bastion somewhere around Yevpatoria it is about 250 kilometers to Odessa, it is easy to calculate that with the average speed in excess of M=2.5 it takes a salvo of P-800s about 250/830 meters per second (or 0.83 km per second)= about 300 seconds, or roughly 5 minutes to reach the target once launched. That leaves, again, if those Harpoons ever make it, which I doubt, too little time to receive targeting (obviously from NATO's assets tracking Black Sea Fleet ships in the area) and develop firing solution. Russia, as I am on record, has her very impressive ISR capabilities, and they, actually, are growing day by day. So, that's simplest of arithmetic. 

But even political level big honchos begin to have doubts:

The US and its allies have communicated to Ukraine the danger of escalation should the weapons provided by the West be used to attack targets inside Russia, according to an exclusive report by Reuters quoting anonymous officials on Thursday. However, Washington has not explicitly banned Kiev from doing so. The highly sensitive, behind-the-scenes discussions have “sought to reach a shared understanding of the risk of escalation,” according to the agency’s sources. “We have concerns about escalation and yet still do not want to put geographic limits or tie their hands too much with the stuff we're giving them,” said one of the three US officials who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. Only two officials were quoted by name, and it wasn’t clear what their relation to these discussions might be. Douglas Lute, a retired US Army lieutenant-general and Washington’s former ambassador to NATO, said that if Ukrainian troops struck deep inside Russia, “it would spark a divisive debate inside the alliance. And, of course, the alliance doesn't want that. And neither does Ukraine.”

Well, this verbal acrobatics is merely a convoluted way to say that Russia not MAY, but WILL escalate, and NATO will begin to lose its own assets. Recall Putin commenting on a HMS Defender hoax? He clearly stated, next time we will sink any ship sent to our waters and UK will do nothing about it. Nobody wants that, but, hey, a la guerre comme a la guerre, simple as that. Any NATO P-8 or any other aircraft over the Black Sea are easy targets for both Black Sea Fleet aviation or S-400s or S-300V4. In the end, Russia is ready for a really big war if shit hits the fan in the West big time, she was for the last 4 years at least. It is now or never, and it is entirely up to the West (a euphemism for the US) to decide how it will handle its own political, economic and military cauldron it finds itself in now.   

Meanwhile, Chinese border city of Heihe, across Amur river from the Russian city of Blagoveshensk, sends these messages to its neighbors in Russia. 

The message is: Russia, we are with you. Once the authenticity of this is confirmed (TV Zvezda reported on that, BTW), this is a very nice neighborly gesture from Chinese in the city of Heihe. There are polls in China which testify to the fact that large majority of Chinese are really rooting for Russia against the combined West and that support means a lot. For everything else there is a MasterCard...(c) Or, rather, Mir Card which buys you almost anything in Russia, who is awash in cash, resources and technologies which really matter. I am beginning to ponder, will Turkey make a dash into the emerging Eurasian economic and military union? Hm, fascinating... Hungary?

They Begin To Feel The Pinch. Or, Didn't I Tell You So?

Not that they haven't been warned by real professionals. Ah, wait, they haven't been. What they have for "military experts" cannot be taken seriously by anyone with military background. 

Russia is tightening the noose on Ukrainian troops in the country's east. A fierce ground and artillery assault has seen Moscow's forces advance, and they now appear close to encircling the last two hold-out cities in Luhansk province — which together with neighboring Donetsk forms the Donbas region that has become the key focus of the Kremlin’s war. With Ukrainian officials voicing concern their troops are now outmanned and outgunned, this Russian push could prove a decisive moment in the conflict.

But, but, NBC, haven't you gotten the memo that Russia is losing badly and is about to run out of ammo? Just ask Generals Petraeus or Keane, they'll tell ya.  They know what they are talking about, they won exactly... zero in their careers. Or ask CNN or MSNBC, they will tell you that Putin faces the coup (having almost 80% of public support), has cancer, Shoigu just had a heart attack and Gerasimov is barely alive from his wounds. Hey, you must uphold the reputation of the American MSM as a sewer and primitive propaganda tabloids. 

Of course this also contradicts the narrative of the last 3 months:

Russian troops have taken over the town of Liman in the northern Donetsk region, the government in Kiev admitted on Thursday evening. Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn west-southwest towards Slavyansk. “We have lost the town of Liman,” Alexey Arestovich, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a livestream on Thursday. Though Arestovich cited “unconfirmed reports,” Russian military correspondent Alexander Kots posted a video of Russian troops in the city shortly thereafter, captioned “Liman is ours.” Ukrainian troops “fled” west and southwest, Kots added, while covering their retreat with artillery fire.

Now the new narrative is needed, since by different estimates another 15,000+ VSU are trapped at Severodonetsk-Lisichansk cauldron. So, that means that VSU is about to "win" yet another "victory". Just to remind you how cauldrons are created. And believe me, Russians are really good at creating them. Here is harking back to the closing of Wehrmacht in many of them. Operation Bagration: count yourself how many major cauldrons have been created, the smaller ones are not even counted:

So, Russian Army knows how to close and boil those cauldrons. in fact, has an unparalleled experience of doing this, including by learning from own disasters in cauldrons set up by Wehrmacht during its halcyon Blitzkrieg days of 1941-42. 

The dynamics of VSU collapse is telling and even Kissinger's suggestions to 404 to trade territory for existence are too little, too late. Russia is in no hurry, she can clearly see the economic implosion of the West, and this doesn't add optimism in regards to prices at the pump:

U.S. Refiners Set To Add Just 350,000 Bpd Capacity By End-2023

That, plus this:

Tells everything you need to know for today. As my friend Byron King stated, when speaking to the assembly of investors in Vancouver a week or so ago. Describing the focus of his talk he notes:

the focus was on economics and where sanctions will take the world economy. Along those lines, we all may be far from the front lines and at no risk of getting bombed or shelled. But those sanctions are exploding across the world. They’re blowing back, in fact, and doing grave damage right down the street from wherever you live. It’s as near as the grocery store, gas station or even the electric power meter on the side of your house.

These are immediate effects of failed sanction Byron describes:

Now consider other aspects of global trade that have been adversely affected by sanctions:

• A food crisis looms – fertilizer, wheat, and other grains are less available from Russia. Hey, have you been grocery shopping lately?


• Global air traffic and cargo are disrupted – Russia has denied overflight to “unfriendly” countries, meaning that many flights must fly circuitous routes, adding time and expense.


• Ongoing cargo ship jams – here’s a legacy of Covid disruptions, but now add issues with “Russian” cargo that meets resistance from shippers, insurers, bankers and even dock workers in some locales.


• Energy/food price increases have embedded inflation into the dollar system – inflation undermines the credibility and utility of the dollar as the unit for trade and means to preserve wealth over time.

Sadly, these are us, simple folks who do our considering, people in D.C. do not. And as it begins to emerge more and more--they can't and many are not rational players at all.  Meanwhile, suffering from cancer, gout, acid indigestion and other illnesses, but looking very healthy and energetic, Vladimir Putin, in his conversation today with Italy's Prime-Minister Mario Draghi, stated (in Russian) that, sure, Russia is ready to help with food and fertilizer crisis, once the politically-motivated sanctions will be removed (wink, wink). It is worth noting that it was Draghi who asked to speak to Putin, not the other way around. Per gas? Sure, Russia always fulfills her contractual obligations. But I am sure if it comes to it, EU an American "partners" will help Italy, right? Nah, I am screwing with you.

About Force Multipliers And Game-Changers. By Larry.

Here is Larrys' good review of some of the force multipliers in Ukraine.  

Let me give you the bottomline up front–Ukraine’s military units in the Donbass in the area of Lysychansk are now essentially encircled, which means Ukraine is facing the loss of at least 15,000 troops unless they are able to retreat. Some pundits refer to this as Deep Operational Encirclement.

Read Larry's excellent write-up at his blog. I just want to add, of course, as I stated so many times that I lost count, last time today at conference with PolitWera and Vladimir Trukhan (in Russian), that Russia operates a full blown space based recon and targeting system which is at least on par with what the US has. And this, BTW, is a very good circumstantial evidence of a REAL situation on the ground in Donbass. 

Ukrainian presidential advisor Alexey Arestovich resorted to obscene language to criticize those in the West urging Kiev to cede part of the country's territory to Russia for the sake of peace. “Go f**k yourselves with such proposals, you dumb f**ks, to trade Ukrainian territory a little bit! Are you f**king crazy? Our children are dying, soldiers are stopping shells with their own bodies, and they are telling us how to sacrifice our territories. This will never happen,” Arestovich said in an interview on Wednesday. Arestovich criticized the logic of “bleating” voices encouraging Ukraine “to curb its appetite” and to give Russia the territories it supposedly wants, as such concessions would allow Kiev to “establish a comprehensive peace and to return to business as usual.” Another adviser of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mikhail Podoliak, took to Telegram on Wednesday to address “pro-Russian lobbyists in Europe.”

Arestovich, apart from being a psychopath and a war criminal (exact type Western elites respect), is also a man with not only zero, but negative, military background and experience and he, certainly, doesn't understand what good ol' Henry Kissinger meant when he stated few days ago that Ukraine should consider ceding territories. Henry wanted to save the Kiev regime in general, and Arestovich's ignorant ass in particular. But then again, can you imagine explaining to a guy who studied in his life everything but the modern warfare what C4ISR is and how combat networks operate and targeting is developed. Right! Neither can I. But the desperation is there, and the stream of videos of Ukie territorial defense units refusing to die for Zelensky and his curators continues unabated. Here is TV Zvezda Newscast (while it still lasts on YouTube). Apart from Putin visiting wounded in hospital, Zvezda also reports on those refusing to fight in VSU. 

So, Arestovich has to start thinking where to haul his sorry ass (UK, Poland, what have you) before he faces all those nasty Rooskies and war crimes tribunal. I need to get a good sleep tonight and cook some video (in continuation of Operations "lectures") on force multipliers.

This Shouldn't Be Ignored.

In fact, I need to elaborate on the immensity of this news. Yesterday:

МОСКВА, 24 мая — РИА Новости. Министерство науки и высшего образования России подтвердило намерение выйти из Болонского процесса и отдать приоритет созданию собственной системы образования, сообщили в пресс-службе ведомства.

Translation:  MOSCOW, May 24 - RIA Novosti. The Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Russia confirmed its intention to withdraw from the Bologna process and give priority to the creation of its own education system, the ministry's press service said.

Here is the key point: 

Болонская система предполагает двухуровневую систему образования: бакалавриат и магистратура. Российская система образования кроме этих уровней включает подготовку кадров по уровню специалитета с нормативным сроком освоения образовательных программ в течение пяти-шести лет.  

Translation: The Bologna system involves a two-level education system: undergraduate and graduate. The Russian education system, in addition to these levels, includes training at the specialist level with a standard term for mastering educational programs for five to six years.

Read the whole piece (use Google to translate) and this "specialist" degree is what makes real professionals. It was always the basis of a superb Russian/Soviet education which was also program of study-rigid in providing both an extremely advanced foundation in general science (Math, Physics, Chemistry, Language etc.) while giving a professional training of the highest level. Return to classic Russian/Soviet system is yet another step in breaking the hold of many poor, if not damaging, Western ideas on Russia's life and this one is huge. You want some "elective" courses in dancing or acting while studying for engineer? Good, only on your own expense and time, otherwise, go and take entrance exams to profile colleges. It is also remarkable that it was Nikolai Patrushev who took an active role in removing this system. 

The consequence of all that will be the return to what Admiral Hyman Rickover was afraid of in 1959:  

Vice Admiral Hyman G. Rickover said today that his recent visit to the Soviet Union and Poland had convinced him that "our really great race with the Soviet Union is in education."

We all can observe today a collapse of the Western system of education through a sheer incompetence, stupidity and malice of contemporary Western "elites". We also see a precipitous decline in what was always thought as a strong point of Western education--STEM. Enough to take a look at Boeing-737 Max and at the killing of the energy sector in EU and the US. As Buzz Aldrin (I believe) said: in 1969 we thought that we would be flying to Mars in 2020, instead we have got Facebook. I may add B-737 Max, LCS and F-35.

So, I decided to give you all heads-up on this extremely important issue. And the sigh of relief in Russia, that finally the killing of Russian educational school is over. Consequences of that will be massive. This is the primer for today. I am physically exhausted for the last two days, so I just need a good day of sleep. So, later I will elaborate on SMO.   

A Profound LOL...

Thanks to Larry Johnson who has more courage and stamina than me to last more than 30 seconds reading CNN trash. Granted, this one is written by some pro-Nazi "journalist" and animal welfare "specialist" from...yes, Ukraine. But then again, CNN is a a Cable Nazi Network and half of them working there would have been charged as war criminals. Many are, really, genuine articles, that is why they lie, projecting their own criminal nature on others. So, the piece talks about some US "combat veteran" (combat with who? AK-47 carrying sandal guys?) who, actually, got to experience a real (emphasis on REAL) war. Boy, he didn't like it. Obviously, who likes to be on the receiving end? 

The number of foreign fighters now in Ukraine is a state secret, but a spokesperson for the International Legion told CNN that the "symbiosis" means Ukraine's "chances of winning are greatly increased.""The best of the best join the Armed Forces of Ukraine," Colonel Anton Myronovych told CNN. "These are foreigners with real combat experience, these are foreign citizens who know what war is, know how to handle weapons, know how to destroy the enemy."For the first time in his life, Kevin was defending against invasion by a better-equipped enemy. He, not the enemy, was the one who had to worry about airstrikes. There was no master plan, no air support -- and there would be no evacuation in case of disaster."It was like a movie," he says. "It was insanity from the start. We started taking indirect fire driving in -- small arms fire driving in. And I was in a pickup truck, just driving down the street.""There's tanks, and above us there's helicopters. And you can hear the Russian jets flying by. And out in the open fields the Russians were dropping troops off in helicopters. And so you're like: 'Woah, wow!' It's a lot."

OK, Kevin, or whatever your real name is. Whatever this loser Colonel of VSU states, none of you, guys, are people with "real combat experience". Shooting at some peasants with AK-47s and RPG-7s while calling on CAS is NOT a real "combat experience", and even those guys wearing sandals managed to kick your ass. No, the real war is a completely different thing, especially on the receiving end. That is why this whole piece by some Ukie propagandist who, like most of CNN staff, is in the business of whitewashing crimes against humanity, is also a concentrated military porn sophomoric BS. But even in this BS, some kernels of truth could be found. And the truth is, none of the "foreign fighters" in 404 are in reality "combat veterans", other than killing those who are always grossly outgunned, because once Russian MLRS begin to shoot, all this "combat experience" is worth nothing, not to mention the fact of a up-close and personal encounter with Russian (not even LDNR) SSOs. You know, the guys who wiped out best of the best of ISIS while fighting always outnumbered? 

 

So, reading this pathetic sappy sentimental diabetes-inducing molasses about some Kevin, who, I am sure, is good at killing civilians--that is what VSU does--cannot hide a simple fact that, when CNN states that:

Kevin says he feels like he's aged five years in the past three months. He doesn't know how to explain what he's experiencing here to his friends back home. He doesn't know if he wants to.But he knows that Ukraine "is where I should be," and plans to stay in the country for the foreseeable future."We've seen this play out time and time again in history. People ask me all the time, 'Oh, this isn't your fight.' Or, 'What are you doing over there?' Yeah, but it wasn't our fight many times in history. And then it was. It's not your problem until it's your problem."

That it is not "his fight", and it never was, because this "combat veteran" knows nothing about fighting defending his family, wife, children, parents, property since he has no concept of that. Most Americans don't. And if he is still alive, he better think really hard what he will feel if he doesn't die easy and instantaneously once Kalibr or Iskander land near him, not to mention other means of delivering death by the enemy who was in the business of defeating world's best militaries way before even great great grand parents of this Kevin-dude were born. So, this phrase, highlighted in yellow, is a complete made up BS by this "animal welfare" specialist who fits perfectly the profile of "journalists" from CNN, or any other BSer from Western main-stream media, who are into whitewashing Ukrainian Neo-Nazism, especially against the background of an impending and inevitable encounter with a horrifying reality of Kiev regime's crimes and a final destruction of its military machine.

 

As Larry encapsulates it so well:

The whores that masquerade on a daily basis as news readers or pundits on the mainstream media are like any normal cheerleader. They will shout passionately on behalf of their team at the start of the game but fall silent once a total ass whipping is underway. Pretty tough to shout, “Two bits, Four bits, Six bits, a Dollar, all for Zhelensky stand up and holler”, when there is no good news to show on the nightly newscasts. The presstitutes are suckers for video showing a ship getting hit with a Ukie missile and sinking, or a Ukie jet strafing a line of stalled Russian tanks, or Ukie artillery raking the positions of entrenched Russian soldiers.

This is so well put! Ah yes, also, LOL at CNN.

My Talking Head For Today.

Just some thoughts. 

Pretty much self-explanatory. 

P.S. My profound gratitude to my Patrons. Thank you, guys! I know who you are and I cannot thank you enough for your support, both financial and moral. 

Larry Wrote An Excellent Counter-Argument To...

 ... Scott Ritter and it also fits well with what I posted today just below. It is about this $40 billion "aid" package to Ukraine. Larry makes an excellent point:

Money may make the world go around but it does not magically produce trained, enthusiastic troops willing and capable of using such weapons. During my time at the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism, I was the Deputy Director for the Anti-Terrorism Assistance Training Program (ATAP). We discovered that no matter how much money the United States wanted to supply to a specific country to combat terrorism we reached a saturation point. We learned that you reach a point where there are no more people to train or the recipients of the training could not absorb the support. Ukraine’s problem right now is not a lack of equipment. The had combat aircraft, helicopters, tanks, artillery and drones. Russia destroyed a significant amount of that materiel and killed the soldiers and pilots who were trained to operate those systems. Training replacements–competent replacements–can not be accomplished in a one or two day seminar. Training a pilot or an artillery crew, for example, requires weeks and, in some circumstances, months of instruction before the trainees are ready to go to battle.

Moreover, here is the thing which Scott Ritter seems to not-understand, as Larry notes:

Scott also asserts that intelligence sharing gives the Ukrainians an edge. When you provide intelligence on Russian troop movements, locations or plans, there is an assumption that the recipients of that intelligence will be able to do something to hurt the Russians. How did that work out in Mariupol? How about fending off the Russian missile attack in Desna. In my view, sharing intelligence with Ukraine is an effort in futility. Am empty gesture that will not change anything on the ground.

And Ritter is obviously misinformed about Russia's recon and targeting capabilities. Not only they are on par with those of the US, but Russian means of counter-measures ranging from jamming or "spoofing" radar satellites, or jamming signint are the best in the world.  There are NO "game-changers" for NATO in Ukraine, not to mention the fact that Pentagon never experienced anything of this nature and judging by steady annihilation of VSU completely misinterpreted Russia's aims and capabilities involved, not to mention the fact that de facto direct Pentagon's Command and Control of VSU failed miserably and that doesn't reflect well on the US, especially after humiliating debacle in Afghanistan. In general, read Larry excellent piece. 

This Is Seriously Fuc... I Mean Funny))

In the same time, in some sense, it is a very Polish thing to do:

Norway should share the “excess” profits it’s been making as oil and gas prices soar amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said at the National Youth Dialogue Congress on Saturday. “But should we be paying Norway gigantic money for gas – four or five times more than we paid a year ago? This is sick,” he said, claiming that the excess of the annual average gas and oil profit “will exceed €100 billion” this year for a country of five million people like Norway. “They should share these excess profits. It’s not normal, it’s unjust. This is an indirect preying on the war started by Putin,” the PM said. Morawiecki also urged young Poles to go and shame their Norwegian “friends” over the fat gas profits online to push the country into sharing the wealth.

Well, if my Alzheimer doesn't fail me, it was namely Poland who wanted spot prices and "market" to define them. Always think twice what you wish for, because those wishes may come true. Gazprom gladly obliged and Poland, unlike it is the case with Hungary, now should pay a fair price, the way market found it. But this Morawiecki's idea is down right bizarre. 

“Write to your young friends in Norway,” he said. “They should share it immediately,” Morawiecki stated, adding that it shouldn’t necessarily be shared with Poland, but with Ukraine.

Well, here is everything you need to know about present day Poland. You see, and I did elaborate on this issue in my videos on operation and operational planning, when commenting on Australian Defense Ministry's Science and Technology Board PPP:

Right, see the first bullet-point: determine the desired end-state with constituent criteria and associated conditions. This is an excellent operational truism which is applicable across the whole spectrum of human activity and especially so in the matters of macro economy, state level governance, diplomacy and geopolitics. Evidently, Morawiecki never heard of those things, because not only he failed to calculate anything in the immediate future but Poland was warned by... Russia that her wishes, when come true, will cost her. Now, Norwegian children should suffer. Not cool, Morawiecki, not cool. Norway plays, as does Russia, in full accordance to energy market rules. 

Meanwhile, I begin to elaborate in very small portions about my technical disagreement with Pepe regarding 404 being able to raise any army in the Western Ukraine. Today is a small piece of reasons:

1. 404 is now in Nth mobilization and the quality of personnel, many of them from Western Ukraine declined dramatically, because best of the best have been physically annihilated and, after two major waves of immigration--one to Russia, but even larger stream to Europe, Ukraine simply doesn't have mobilization base enough to assemble, let alone arm, any serious military force. Hence Zelensky's obvious lie about the size of VSU. But even if to assume that he doesn't lie, one has to admit Russian, dramatically numerically inferior, forces are doing a very good job of annihilating the Ukrainian military. Otherwise, how can one explain a huge number of those young men from Western Ukraine who are flooding Europe today and are in no hurry to be sent to the front. Just think about it:

More than 6.4 million people have fled Ukraine since the fighting broke out, according to UN data. The vast majority of them, nearly 3.5 million, went to neighboring Poland. Romania and Russia became two other major destinations for Ukrainian refugees, with around 900,000 people going into each country.

So, considering realistic population of Ukraine numbering now 25-27 million, with 7 million (much less now) living in the Western Ukraine, unless one wants to draft 12-13 year boys (I wouldn't put this past Kiev regime), the prospects of raising a proper, combat capable that is, new army are rather bleak. 

2. Let's not forget also that we live in 2022 and this is how new VSU recruits get acquainted with modern war precisely in the areas (this one is in Desna North of Kiev) where many loyalists reside. These are Desna barracks with very little left of new recruits and this was just a couple-three 3M14 Kalibrs a couple of days ago.

And, of course, who can forget Yavorsky barracks filled with all those "fighters" from around the world who came to hunt themselves some Rooskies. Their "residence", which was blown to smithereens together with hundreds of them, was precisely in the Western Ukraine. 

So, just these two, out of many purely technical considerations, are already enough to start questioning REAL mobilization and military-industrial capabilities of 404, which were degraded dramatically. But knowing Poland, one has to keep an eye on Warsaw's actions, but then again, there is a reason Russia uses only small percentage of her capabilities in Ukraine and keeps most of them in reserve. Just in case Poland decides to do stupid things, which, judging by Morawecki's escapade towards Norway, tells us that nothing could be excluded when speaking about Warsaw and its curators in D.C.

Hm, Surprising.

That a radically establishment The Hill afforded a tribune for Kim Iversen. 

I, certainly, would question her views on real war reporting, but it is commendable that some people in MSM begin to question the narrative which in the West is utterly false. Not to mention it, as I am on record non-stop, being militarily risible and sophomoric. So, this is surprising in a good sense. 

In somewhat related news, WTF is going on withe the US Navy?

The number of sailors who deserted the Navy more than doubled from 2019 to 2021, while desertions in other military branches dropped or stayed flat, pointing to a potential Navy-wide mental health crisis amid a spate of recent suicides, according to experts and federal statistics obtained by NBC News.

I don't think it is the Navy per se, I think it is generational. 

What's The Deal With The US Four-Star Generals?

I don't know. One, certainly, cannot suspect General Barry McCaffrey in cowardice. He is a distinguished combat officer, but this...

Don't they care at all about their professional integrity and honor? And he is not the only one, here is another guy:

  

Petraeus cannot possibly know what the real cost of taking Mariupol is, because only Russia's General Staff knows it. US main-stream media military "experts" long ago chose using Ukie non-stop propaganda BS and their sublimation of a severe professional jealousy and butt-hurt over professional integrity and this parade of military losers, who didn't win shit in their life, and who are still reeling from Afghanistan humiliation, continues non-stop. 

They know what the US Army record of the last 50+ years looks like, they also know what military failures they are and they cannot contain their rage from experiencing the contrast between the two very different militaries and how they fight their respective wars. Even their "very own SOBs" in VSU are nothing more than Nazi war criminals who are singing like birds now both about NATO involvement in crimes against humanity in Donbass and about biolabs. Worst of all for them is well-documented fact of the US (and some NATO) military being directly involved in C4ISR for VSU which reflects extremely poorly on Pentagon's (always grossly exaggerated) reputation.  Hence this:

It would be really difficult to believe that the United States is not in a proxy war with Russia if reports that it plans to send anti-ship missiles to Ukraine are true. In fact, the State Department did not exactly deny this exclusive report from Reuters that Washington was readying to share the weapons capability to help “defeat Russia’s naval blockade…amid concerns more powerful weapons that could sink Russian warships would intensify the conflict.” “As the conflict is changing, so too is our military assistance to deliver the critical capabilities Ukraine needs for today’s fight as Russia’s forces engage in a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine,” a State spokesperson said on Friday. The only thing that is being directly denied are assertions by the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs adviser, who tweeted Friday that “the US is preparing a plan to destroy the [Russian] Black Sea Fleet. The effective work of the Ukrainians on [Russian] warships convinced [the US] to prepare a plan to unblock the [Ukrainian] ports. Deliveries of powerful anti-ship weapons are being discussed.” 

Well, Vlahos has been around D.C. for a long time and she surely should know that those "decisions" are not anymore dictated by some military necessity--not to mention the fact that those missiles will not change much militarily for Russia, and Ukraine--but that ANY US Administration in the last 20 years was in a full blown crusade mode against not just Russia, but Russians as people and it is driven by racial and cultural hatred and deeply hidden but not well contained complex of inferiority which exacerbates with the economic decline of the US (and combined West) and Russia taking the lead in forming new geopolitical reality. So, a lot of impetus behind desperate steps by D.C. is simply irrational. There are rumors now that the US considers supplying Patriot AD complexes to 404. The immediate question is who is going to be manning them when they will be annihilated? 

It has to be understood clearly that the US, not taking anything from the entrepreneurial, industrial, creative and scientific genius of the American people, was a main beneficiary of once in a lifetime pure luck in WW II. But the same as you cannot substitute actual annihilation of the most of Ukrainian Air Force with many shots from the video-games, you also cannot buy military history. And no US general ever fought in defense of his motherland against the best of the best, defeating them time after time. You just cannot buy it, even if you want to convince yourself that General Lee was "equal" of Napoleon (he never was even in the same universe) or that Patton fought REAL Wehrmacht at the zenith of its power, Russians did and defeated it. The United States was supposed to be this savior, a providential blessing upon the world, but the immediate benefits of the post-WW II restoration pretty much ran out by the year 2000 and the wobbling then finally resulted in the economic calamity which is only now begins to be felt, slightly. It is getting to number 11 pretty fast. 

For the United States the struggle is existential, it is also with its own chimeras of the past. I am on record, reality is a bitch, it eventually bites and it hurts like hell if you are not ready. Plus, you cannot fight it even with the most elaborate BS narratives, but that, it seems, is the only thing in which the US four-star generals are good at. Fighting real wars and not parading themselves as sore-losers, not much. Unless, of course, one begins to move goal posts and redefine all known truisms of military science. I know, I can only only imagine how it hurts to understand that after the 8 years of US training and support those who the CIA and Pentagon hoped to kill so many actual Russians (killing children and raping women was accepted as collateral damage) have had their ass kicked and humiliated by grossly numerically inferior Russian force. That's gotta hurt a lot. Here are some other "skills" US and NATO "taught" those animals. Here is incomparable Eva Bartlett.

In conclusion, Here is Larry's yesterday's take:

Mariupol’s Final Ukrainian Chapter, Russia Writes New book

Pay close attention to a video of good ol' Russian BM-21 MLRS doing its job. That is how the real war looks like. But I am sure General Petraeus knows all about it, right? Nah, I am being facetious.