Thursday, May 26, 2022

They Begin To Feel The Pinch. Or, Didn't I Tell You So?

Not that they haven't been warned by real professionals. Ah, wait, they haven't been. What they have for "military experts" cannot be taken seriously by anyone with military background. 

But, but, NBC, haven't you gotten the memo that Russia is losing badly and is about to run out of ammo? Just ask Generals Petraeus or Keane, they'll tell ya.  They know what they are talking about, they won exactly... zero in their careers. Or ask CNN or MSNBC, they will tell you that Putin faces the coup (having almost 80% of public support), has cancer, Shoigu just had a heart attack and Gerasimov is barely alive from his wounds. Hey, you must uphold the reputation of the American MSM as a sewer and primitive propaganda tabloids. 

Of course this also contradicts the narrative of the last 3 months:

Now the new narrative is needed, since by different estimates another 15,000+ VSU are trapped at Severodonetsk-Lisichansk cauldron. So, that means that VSU is about to "win" yet another "victory". Just to remind you how cauldrons are created. And believe me, Russians are really good at creating them. Here is harking back to the closing of Wehrmacht in many of them. Operation Bagration: count yourself how many major cauldrons have been created, the smaller ones are not even counted:

So, Russian Army knows how to close and boil those cauldrons. in fact, has an unparalleled experience of doing this, including by learning from own disasters in cauldrons set up by Wehrmacht during its halcyon Blitzkrieg days of 1941-42. 

The dynamics of VSU collapse is telling and even Kissinger's suggestions to 404 to trade territory for existence are too little, too late. Russia is in no hurry, she can clearly see the economic implosion of the West, and this doesn't add optimism in regards to prices at the pump:

U.S. Refiners Set To Add Just 350,000 Bpd Capacity By End-2023

That, plus this:

Tells everything you need to know for today. As my friend Byron King stated, when speaking to the assembly of investors in Vancouver a week or so ago. Describing the focus of his talk he notes:

the focus was on economics and where sanctions will take the world economy. Along those lines, we all may be far from the front lines and at no risk of getting bombed or shelled. But those sanctions are exploding across the world. They’re blowing back, in fact, and doing grave damage right down the street from wherever you live. It’s as near as the grocery store, gas station or even the electric power meter on the side of your house.

These are immediate effects of failed sanction Byron describes:

Now consider other aspects of global trade that have been adversely affected by sanctions:

  • A food crisis looms – fertilizer, wheat, and other grains are less available from Russia. Hey, have you been grocery shopping lately?

  • Global air traffic and cargo are disrupted – Russia has denied overflight to “unfriendly” countries, meaning that many flights must fly circuitous routes, adding time and expense.

  • Ongoing cargo ship jams – here’s a legacy of Covid disruptions, but now add issues with “Russian” cargo that meets resistance from shippers, insurers, bankers and even dock workers in some locales.

  • Energy/food price increases have embedded inflation into the dollar system – inflation undermines the credibility and utility of the dollar as the unit for trade and means to preserve wealth over time.

Sadly, these are us, simple folks who do our considering, people in D.C. do not. And as it begins to emerge more and more--they can't and many are not rational players at all.  Meanwhile, suffering from cancer, gout, acid indigestion and other illnesses, but looking very healthy and energetic, Vladimir Putin, in his conversation today with Italy's Prime-Minister Mario Draghi, stated (in Russian) that, sure, Russia is ready to help with food and fertilizer crisis, once the politically-motivated sanctions will be removed (wink, wink). It is worth noting that it was Draghi who asked to speak to Putin, not the other way around. Per gas? Sure, Russia always fulfills her contractual obligations. But I am sure if it comes to it, EU an American "partners" will help Italy, right? Nah, I am screwing with you.

No comments:

Post a Comment