Saturday, May 28, 2022

Plans Are Changing For The US. Larry Talks To Eva.

Plans are always changing, that is why General Staffs plan 24/7, non-stop. The US military doesn't know what real war is in which US servicemen are subjected to fire impact (ognevoe vosdeistvie) which comes from the enemy which has the means to shoot back, and effectively at that. The only advantage the US has now is the fact that its C4ISR beyond the territory of 404 is not touched by Russians yet. In real war with Russia the US would have its C4ISR disrupted and would lose a lot of its space-based assets. But we are not there yet, thankfully, and hopefully will not get there. But for the US the struggle in Ukraine is existential and unfolding military catastrophe for VSU reflects directly onto the US, which still reels from military humiliation in Afghanistan and, let's be very straight forward, pathetic performance of genuine US military technology supplied to Ukraine. Now this new crisis. Severodonetsk was taken by Russian Forces as Kadyrov reported (in Russian)

So, what are you going to do, if you are CIA, State Department or Pentagon? Right, do what you always do, continue to support your very own SOBs and, preferably, widen the conflict. That's the "change of plans". The only way the US can "widen" the conflict is to continue to provide weapons to Kiev regime and hence the talk about Harpoons and now HIMARS. As I stated on a number of occasions, these deliveries will not change the outcome, but if HIMARS will be used against Russia's territory, we may have some very serious escalation by Russia and some of it will be very nasty for the US. Keep in mind, the US has very many assets and bases around the world. All of them are within the range of Russia's stand-off weapons and Russia will retaliate directly against both NATO members who delivered weapons, such as Danish Harpoons, and most US military bases will be under a direct threat of retaliation. 

And here is the issue: even Iran's retaliation against the US bases in 2020, after assassination of General Soleimani,  was an eye opener for the US. Russia's retaliation will be much more devastating and it may go without prior warning to the US side unlike it was done by Iran in 2020. But here is another issue: ATACMS and PrSM munitions for HIRAMS have ranges of 300 and 500 kilometers respectively. These are precisely the types of weapons which such AD systems as S-400, S-300V4 and later versions of S-300 have been created for. Putting aside already described retaliation by Russia, in case the US decides to pursue this suicidal "policy", which will not have any effect on the military outcome of SMO, which already ticking away towards US geopolitical defeat, even mitigation of the impact of such weapons by Russian AD will add weight to already well demonstrated US military, especially C2, and technological ineptness in 404 and the latest moves are nothing more than desperate convulsions in an attempt to prolong 404 (and own) agony. 

I am on record, Pentagon will not out-think Russia's General Staff no matter how they try and the US will continue on the path of "escalation" until it completely discredits itself militarily and technologically. US cannot afford Afghanistan 2.0 in Ukraine, because in absolute terms v. 2.0 is not applicable, because what is brewing in 404 will make Afghanistan 1.0's humiliation look like peanuts. Well, I guess the cards are dealt but Russia knows the game. 

Admiral Gorshkov today hit the surface target 1000 kilometers away by Zircon:

And it is just another demonstration of a huge and increasing gap in weapons which also is one of the major drivers behind US suicidal attempts to "fight" a proxy war in Ukraine. To do anything to get Russia mired in some sort of resources-consuming affair, not noticing that it is the US who loses both resources and status being involved, yet again, in the war it cannot competently execute. This also is reflected in today's interview of Vladimir Yermakov of Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in Russian) about a dialog between the US and Russia on strategic stability and, especially, surprise, surprise, the US desperate desire not to allow Russia to have RS-28 Sarmat (too late for that) and Poseidon. In related news, everyone knows that the US is not agreement capable, if not altogether, governable, so Yermakov and his team are doing their motions. You know, "the forms must be obeyed". 

Here is also a wonderful interview of Eva Bartlett with Larry Johnson. Strongly recommend.


This is the type of journalism which is sorely missing in the modern West today. So, this is the primer for Saturday.

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