Or, we all told you so. Thanks to Larch who posted this link at the Saker's blog. The reality begins to creep in. Get this headline from today.
Putin is NOT crazy and the Russian invasion is NOT failing. The
West's delusions about this war - and its failure to understand the
enemy - will prevent it from saving Ukraine, writes military analyst
Well, Roggio even complains that:
The world has underestimated Putin before and those mistakes have led, in part, to this tragedy in Ukraine. We must be clear-eyed now that the war is underway. Yet even the professionals at the Pentagon are letting sympathy cloud their judgement. Just two days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Department of Defense briefers were quick to claim that failing to take Kyiv in the opening days of the war amounted to a serious setback. DoD briefers implied that Russia's offensive was well behind schedule or had even failed because the capital had not fallen. But U.S. leaders should have learned to restrain their hopes after their catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Roggio should learn that US leaders do not learn and if military professionals have "sympathy cloud their judgment"--they are not professionals. For Roggio I can state straight--Pentagon and US Intel orgs have a vague understanding of Russia and Russian military and how it is incorporated into the Russian society. The United States simply lacks such historic, cultural, doctrinal and strategic experiences. Read my lips (again): NO US servicemen, from general to grunt, ever fought in modern history in defense of his motherland. Period. American combat experiences are very niche and the military record is rather underwhelming. Speaking in tactics and operational lingo does not address the issue of continental warfare. Not surprising for a country where Patton is considered a "genius for war" and Earl Ziemke's book which makes the case of Western Allies winning the World War Two primarily on the secondary theaters is still available for download from the US Army War College. It is only natural to have own judgement clouded. In fact, it is not a bug, but a feature.
But Patrick Armstrong goes further and gives it a broader perspective (not forgetting to touch upon operational and strategic matters) and I quote:
We are seeing the collapse of post Cold War triumphalism, “end of history”, “unilateralism” and all the rest of it. Reality is biting, and biting hard. All you have to do is watch CNN’s parade of talking heads and “experts” speculating about how crazy Putin is: they don’t understand, therefore he must be nuts. For the West, as it has been, it’s over. The confusion, the bullshit, the boasting, the hysteria, the bans: the West has nothing left in the locker. Pour Russian vodka down the toilet, fire a singer and director, change the name of a drink or a salad, ban cats or trees, sanction a Russian plutocrat and steal his yacht, wear a blue and yellow t-shirt. Pathetic. And don’t, under any circumstances, allow a Russian outlet to tempt the sheeple with “disinformation”. Just like the USSR but stupider. And who thought stupider was even possible?
And if Roggio sympathizes with present Ukraine, he better learn Russia's history, not that he will be able to grasp it--people with much greater credentials than his failed to do so. But at least he begins to feel where the winds are blowing. And yes, what is missing from Roggio's piece--the comparisons between Russian and American wars will be made again and we all know how they will be judged.