Monday, March 2, 2020

Never Jump To Conclusions...

Based on some obvious social media propaganda and misinformation. These past days the ONLY question which realistically was at the center of the shitstorm with Turkey and Erdogan going off hinges was not of Turkey winning anything or dealing "catastrophic" (not really) damage to SAA but how to arrange a face-saving retreat for Erdogan. As was expected, SAA retook Saraqib today (in Russian, TASS), Erdogan suddenly expressed his love for Russia and Iran in Syria by declaring today that Turkey merely seeks her security and in no way aims at Syrian territory and especially not at Russia (in Russian), and, of course, those declarations came about, probably, after Russia, namely Command of Russia's Syrian Group nonchalantly stated that it cannot guarantee safety of Turkish aircraft over Idlib. Anyone needs any comments here?   

Putin-Erdogan meeting will proceed as planned in Moscow on March 5th (I think) and Erdo will have to endure a rather humiliating several hours when he will be read instructions on how to behave. As I said, he could have had a lot, now he will be forced to take what will be given to him. So, here is my advice to all who were making "conclusions" based on Turkish propaganda in social media: learn to be patient. Combined arms operations, especially with limited forces such as those of SAA take time and as any operation they have phases and are characterized by fluid tactical and operational situations. As per Russia, I repeat it again, as I did so many times before--Russia is in Syria not to fight the war for Syrians, it is their responsibility, Russia merely helps, including by providing safety for Bashar Assad's government, which is the only legitimate government in Syria. Simple as that. Now we have to be patient and see what Moscow and Ankara will arrive to on Syria. The process of clearing Idlib from jihadists must continue and it will continue after, most likely, some ad hoc short "truce". 

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