Zircons Paying A Visit..

 ... no, not Cuba and Venezuela only. This is the message. 

МЕХИКО, 6 июн — РИА Новости. Отряд из четырех кораблей российского Военно-морского флота прибудет с официальным визитом в порт Гаваны 12 июня, сообщило Министерство иностранных дел Кубы. "В период с 12 по 17 июня 2024 года порт Гавана с официальным визитом посетит отряд Военно-морского флота Российской Федерации в составе четырех кораблей: фрегат "Горшков", АПЛ "Казань", нефтяной танкер "Пашин" и спасательный буксир "Николай Чикер", — говорится в коммюнике на сайте ведомства. В Гаване отметили, что прибытие российских судов отвечает дружественным отношениям между Кубой и Россией, а также строго соответствует международным правилам. Там подчеркнули, что ни один из кораблей не несет ядерного оружия и их стоянка не представляет угрозы для региона.

Translation: MEXICO CITY, June 6 – RIA Novosti. A detachment of four ships of the Russian Navy will arrive on an official visit to the port of Havana on June 12, the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced. “In the period from June 12 to 17, 2024, a detachment of the Russian Navy consisting of four ships will pay an official visit to the port of Havana: the frigate Gorshkov, the nuclear submarine Kazan, the oil tanker Pashin and the rescue tug Nikolai Chiker.” , says a communiqué on the department’s website. In Havana, they noted that the arrival of the Russian ships is in line with friendly relations between Cuba and Russia, and also strictly complies with international rules. They emphasized that none of the ships carry nuclear weapons and their stay does not pose a threat. for the region.

 

These are the biggest guns in cruise missile business in the world. Gorshkov carries 32 Onyx, Zircon, Kalibrs and Otvet. These are the most advanced and deadly cruise missiles in history, with a serious combat pedigree. Kazan, which is Yasen-class SSGN carries also 32 VLS and, in addition, has 10 torpedo tubes which can shoot not just torpedoes. 

For people who long ago adjusted themselves to the realities of a modern missile combat it is absolutely clear that while both can strike all of the Eastern seaboard of the US and Canada, they are there not for that reason. God forbid it comes to real WW III there are plenty of Bulavas, Avangards, Sarmats and Yarses to deal with this horrifying business. No, both Gorshkov and Kazan are there to show that they can reach any combat ship or strategic sea lift vessel carrying any military combat set from North America to Europe in case of some nutjob deciding to try to survive a conventional war with Russia in 404. 

 

I want to remind you again about what just one Yasen-class armed only with 800-km range Onyx missiles can do in terms of possible "patrol" along the Atlantic SLOC:

Zircon carriers can sink any CBG or escort without even entering the risk zone of farthest edge of CBG patrol, including early warning aircraft. But, of course, Russia has more than two carriers of this "strike package". Plus, never forget good ol' pr. 949A Oscars, not to mention venerable pr. 971 Schuka (NATO Akula) who go to sea regularly. That's the message--in case of war the US will not be able to resupply and deploy additional troops to Europe. In related news, commemorating 80th Anniversary of the D-Day, Biden didn't even mention a key role Soviet Union and Red Army played making Allied landing possible. But, of course, we all know, should have Patton planned and executed Operation Bagration he would surely have done it better than Russkies. Boy, I wish the guy was present at Kursk Battle.

Visiting Marshal Shaposhnikov...

Sergei Shoigu and Admiral Evmenov show Comrade Kim how fully modernized Marshal Shaposhnikov looks nowadays, while Sergei Shoigu confirms serial production of 3M22 Zircon. 

Ah yes, those new missiles with the range of more than 6500 kilometers for strategic bombers. Boy, things don't look too bright for NATO. Hence this:

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is willing to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un “without preconditions”, a top government official said Friday. The prime minister has previously said he was ready to hold talks with Kim, but the reiterated invitation comes after the North Korean leader travelled to Russia to met President Vladimir Putin this week.

Al Capone's truism that you can get much further with a kind word and a gun, than just with the kind word alone, works each time. This is the only method of communications combined West understands.

Seemengly Unrelated...

But only seemingly. While world's attention is directed fully to an industrial slaughter of VSU and NATO proxy forces in 404, here is a no less important thing.  

«В соответствии с приказом главнокомандующего ВМФ новый корвет заложен под наименованием „Ретивый“. Торжественное мероприятие было приурочено к 90-й годовщине со дня закладки первого промышленного объекта Амурского судостроительного завода», — говорится в сообщении. «Перед началом церемонии закладки нового корвета командующий Тихоокеанским флотом проинспектировал ход строительства всех кораблей для ТОФ на заводе, в том числе малые ракетные корабли проекта 22800 „Ржев“, „Удомля“, „Уссурийск“ и „Павловск“, корветы проекта 20380 „Грозный“ и „Бравый“, а также проекта 20385 — „Буйный“, „Разумный“ и „Быстрый“. Ближайшим боевым кораблем АСЗ, который будет передан Тихоокеанскому флоту, станет корвет „Резкий“ проекта 20380», — уточняется в сообщении.

Translation: “In accordance with the order of the Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, the new corvette was laid down under the name Zealous. The solemn event was timed to coincide with the 90th anniversary of the laying of the first industrial facility of the Amur Shipbuilding Plant. “Before the start of the laying ceremony of the new corvette, the commander of the Pacific Fleet inspected the construction of all ships for the Pacific Fleet at the plant, including small missile ships of project 22800 Rzhev, Udomlya, Ussuriysk and Pavlovsk, corvettes of project 20380 Grozny and "Brave", as well as project 20385 - "Wild", "Reasonable" and "Fast". The nearest warship to be handed over to the Pacific Fleet will be the Project 20380 corvette Sharp," the message says.

Ten (10!!!) ships for Pacific Fleet simultaneously at the shipyard which a few years ago was on the verge of disappearance. Larger FFGs of Gorshkov-class are also coming. Half of those listed ships are 3M22 Zircon carriers. The dynamics of the rearmament of the Pacific Fleet is mind boggling once one begins top add submarines, both SSKs and nukes. 

Pacific Fleet will have three of those very soon and they, together with Marshal Shaposhnikov ARE carriers of hyper-sonic strike weapons NOW. Not in some future but now.  

Even considering a relatively weak AD of Shaposhnikov, all pr. 20380 and 20385 carry an outstanding Redut air-defense complex, which allows a detachment of such ships (with attached sub and patrol forces), usually 3-4 surface ships to control a gigantic area of more than 3.5 million square kilometers. It is also easily the distributed force--a thing which, as an example, top-heavy US Navy cannot do realistically, unless one considers LCS a real combat ship, which they are not. So, there you go. I am 146% positive China loves it--it is so nice to have a Norther Flank well protected. Just saying...

 

P.S. Speaking yesterday at the graduation in National Defense University, Mark Milley noted that there are only three superpowers in the world: US, China and... Russia. Ah, good. Now that they begin to understand this, it is a high time to adjust own behavior accordingly.  

Gorshkov Is On Patrol...

These are next to be loaded with 3M22 Zircons and on to changing naval warfare forever. 

Admiral Kasatonov:

Admiral Golovko:

Marshal Shaposhnikov:

And Gremyaschyii of pr. 20385.
 

These are immediately available carriers of Zircons, each of such ships capable to sink CBG in a single salvo without entering the range of carrier-borne aviation, and getting targeting from both Liana and other assets, including submarines on patrol, and that spells the end of navies as we knew them. Next "stop" are Zircons on operational-strategic aircraft such as TU-22M3M or even tactical aircraft such as SU-34 (Indians managed to stick Brahmos under the belly of their SU-30MKIs) and, the next year, on the submarines of the pr.885 Yasen-class. As they say, Happy New Year. 

The Russian navy frigate ‘Admiral Gorshkov,’ has become the first warship carrying Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles to begin routine combat service. Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the ceremony on Wednesday via video link, declaring that the Zircon missile was a “unique weapon” and that “no other country has anything comparable.” “I am sure that such a powerful armament will allow us to steadfastly defend Russia from potential foreign threats. It will help to maintain the national interests of our country,” Putin stated.

Yes, I am sure that is what Putin meant--Happy New Year.  US submariners' life has just got much more interesting;)) 

In related news, you have got to love the guy--his enthusiasm for developing firing solution is contagious. 

Yes, those great, legendary American battleships of WW II.

Larry Thinks About Hunger, Patrick--About Mistakes.

Larry Johnson asks a question--are we in for a famine? This is not a vain question, it is a very important one and Larry gives some numbers:

Let me help you with the math–Russia and the Ukraine combined accounted for 33% of all wheat exports among the top ten exporters. Russia exports more than the United States. Let that sink in for a moment.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is highly likely to disrupt Ukraine’s ability to fully plant and harvest wheat in 2022. And Russia will be blocked, in theory at least, from being able to accept U.S. dollars for its wheat export. On March 9 President Putin signed an order banning the exports of some goods and raw materials.

Larry presents some figures which should (we can only hope) give some pause to insanity which passes in the US for "foreign policy" and economics. Read the whole thing at Larry's blog--the link is in my blog-roll. 

Patrick Armstrong meanwhile writes about what he got wrong. I disagree, he got things right based on available information of that time. Nobody knew, albeit many did suspect, that new facts will change the thought process by many analysts, me included, about the objectives of Russia's campaign in 404. As Patrick writes:

So why was I wrong? What did I miss? I believe I missed three things – two I didn’t know about and one that I did but did not properly weigh. These are: the nuclear weapons issue, the planned strike on LDNR and the biolabs.

Biolabs is a huge issue with the US de facto admitting through Nuland's response at the hearings in Congress about them that the US was involved in developing bio-weapons program in Ukraine and was also working on a genetic weapons. This issue is not going anywhere, it will stay top and center in Russia's foreign policy agenda and it will feature prominently at the War Crimes Tribunal. By now Russian MoD and FSB have more than enough documents and witnesses to make a case, a very strong one.  

Lara Logan, however, makes one mistake, albeit it is not her mistake--it is an inevitable confusion by those in the US military who grasp at the last straw of US military credibility trying to confuse people who are removed from operational matters:

RuAF is a completely different animal than the USAF. Moreover, the flying hours of RuAF are probably in the top 5 in the world and RuAF performed extremely well, supporting a very high operational tempo in Syria, and now did an admirable job in 404. But that brings us to a larger issue which I stress all the time--Russia and the US fight very differently, but the US military is extremely sensitive when it comes to its combat "record" which, frankly, is underwhelming in the last 70+ years and the US fighting doctrine is distilled into a very simple principle--get overwhelming air dominance (against third rate opponents) and then blow shit indiscriminately. 

Moreover, the USAF doesn't know what it means to fight in the modern EW and AD environment. The last time it faced more or less adequate AD was in Vietnam and it lost 10,000 aircraft, 2,500 of them combat fixed wing ranging from B-52 strategic bombers to F-4s and even UAVs. Russian VKS of 2022 are a completely different game. And any USAF operations against Russia's VKS in a real conventional war will result in the most dramatic losses. Again, this only applies if US (NATO) air forces survive the meeting with Russia's high precision stand-off weapons at air bases. If to believe this video, it is Kinzhal flying to target--underground bunkers with ammo and weapons in Western Ukraine. Those were build to withstand indirect nuclear explosion impact. Kinzhal, reportedly, had no problems destroying them. I doubt this video shows Kinzhal, but still, military porn.

In related news, all Bastion launchers are capable to launch 3M22 Zircon. Evidently, per Russia's MoD, P-800 Onyx from Bastions are actively used in 404. I will expand on this military porn issue later. That's the primer for the weekend.

Wrapping Tests Up For 3M22.

Yet another Zircon has been launched in the White Sea by Admiral Gorshkov and it hit the target more than 400 kilometers away (in Russian). The missile is already in serial production so the Russian Navy has many New Year presents coming its way. TV Zvezda already reported on it:

But this is not what is interesting in Russia nowadays. Dmitry Medvedev (remember him?) stated something which Russians want to hear, and, if fact, already see the government reacting to ethnic crime--primarily by Russia's Muslim Caucasus "representatives" and Middle Asia migrants who are being now shown that Sharia and unmotivated aggression are not practiced in Russia proper. Some people speculated that this Medvedev's statement is an attempt to put himself back on the electoral map of Russia. I don't think so. I think he is just trying to do his job.

МОСКВА, 29 ноября. /ТАСС/. Российские власти не должны допустить возникновения на территории страны этнических анклавов. Об этом на совещании о проблемах реализации миграционной политики РФ и задачах по повышению ее эффективности заявил заместитель председателя Совета безопасности РФ Дмитрий Медведев."Нужны дополнительные меры, которые позволят иностранцам лучше адаптироваться в нашей стране. Нельзя допускать их изоляции, как это, к сожалению, происходит во многих странах мира, и маргинализации, возникновения на территории нашей страны этнических анклавов", - подчеркнул Медведев. Заместитель председателя Совета безопасности констатировал, что "примеров такого рода анклавов в мире предостаточно". "И все они являются рассадниками преступности", - подчеркнул он.Он призвал уделять внимание диспропорциям, возникающим в связи с внутренней миграцией населения между регионами РФ.

Translation:  MOSCOW, November 29. / TASS /. The Russian authorities must prevent the emergence of ethnic enclaves on the territory of the country. Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev stated this at a meeting on the problems of implementing the migration policy of the Russian Federation and the tasks of increasing its effectiveness. "Additional measures are needed that will allow foreigners to better adapt in our country. We must not allow their isolation, as, unfortunately, in many countries of the world, and marginalization, the emergence of ethnic enclaves on the territory of our country," Medvedev stressed. The Deputy Chairman of the Security Council stated that "there are plenty of examples of this kind of enclaves in the world." "And they are all breeding grounds for crime," he stressed. He urged to pay attention to the imbalances arising in connection with the internal migration of the population between the regions of the Russian Federation.

First and foremost: ANY ethnic enclave is always in part or whole is involved into ethnic organized crime. Always, 100% of the time. It is especially true for Muslim population which is first generation from their native lands and are transferred from some village (aul) with its tribal culture aggravated by Sharia to such country as Russia. For some Tajik labor-immigrant or Dagestani (even if Russian citizen) 18-20 year old transplant from primitive conditions of mountain village appearing in Moscow, St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg or Vladivostok with their liberties, nightlife, urbanizm, glitz and many beautiful seemingly available (meaning not-dressed into burka) girls often is a cultural shock of massive scale. But old traditions die slow and here is the example. Few Dagestani "men" beat the girls in Astrakhan after they pointed out to them that putting their feet on the table is wrong. They beat them severely. 

You don't need to know Russian. 

Now look at how Russian Police deals with these people when taking them in. Guess what? Public support is overwhelming.

You just don't beat women because your custom tells you that they are below you--not in Russia, where women are revered as wives, mothers and friends and, frankly, have more rights than men. It is all good. Evidently, Russian government, not to mention an overwhelming majority of Russia's populations, had it and they act. Remarkably, in my life I had a variety of positive experiences with Russian Azeris, Dagestan natives (there are many ethnicities there), Chechens and others who were transplants to Russia but who were fully integrated, spoke excellent Russian, worked in respectable jobs (doctors, teachers), loved Russian culture and were for all intents and purposes Russians who didn't lose their ethnic flavor. 

That what Medvedev's statement is all about. You want to live in Russia? Well, when in Rome do as Romans do. And Russians, unlike French, German and other EU lefty traitors of their own culture and nations are ready to enforce their way of life in their own country which is the way of civilized modern society which also loves own culture. You don't see the United States in this list for a reason--it is both blessing and tragedy of America, which was consumed in cities by homicidal "progressive" lack of culture but whose country-side (America which I personally love) is armed and still holds some natural values dear to them and is ready to shoot. Maybe there is a hope in this readiness, even when it is sometimes somewhat misguided.

I Am Abusing This Expression...

But again, what can I do under present circumstances, so it goes: no shit, geniuses. Get a load of this:

Boy, what a novel concept--creating a weapon which has a targeting. Wow! I am sure "intel community" in NATO was surprised, because considering the development of modern weapon systems in the West it is supposed to dominate...everything. Which it does not, not even close, that is why for them the news that Soviets/Russians were into the business of providing "targeting capabilities" since 1960s comes as a surprise. This is not to mention the fact of, obviously, not fully understanding of how targeting for anti-shipping cruise missiles is provided especially such missiles as hyper-sonic Kinzhal and Zircon. 

There is a strong empirical evidence that "intel community" was not really intelling anything since once Russians....ah, let me quote myself, because this is becoming tiresome commenting on "surprised experts" all the time:

USSR/Russia were in business of over-the-horizon targeting and shooting for a long, very long time. Since 1960s, and most important Soviet anti-shipping missiles had combat ranges in hundreds of kilometers since then. Those who read my latest book know--I concentrate on this issue--how important it is to know coordinates of a target and the rate of their obsolescence for developing a firing solution (or a flight plan, if one wishes) for a salvo of missiles. For that, in 1970s USSR created MKRC Legenda, which, for some of its shortcomings did provide good recon and targeting on which a number over-the-horizon launches were executed with excellent precision.  

Some people still cannot grasp the idea that USSR/Russia (as was disclosed by Russia's General Staff) practiced the long-to very long over-the-horizon salvos both on the platform-based (see Mineral radar, among many other things) and external targeting including based on the space assets such as modern day Liana and it really DOES NOT matter for targeting if its is 500 km or 2000. Modern targeting being an issue of datum concerns itself either with Bearing (Azimuth) and Range to target, or with Phi Lambda (geographic coordinates) of same. Period. Modern day systems provide virtually real time picture of surface and ground assets and can easily, based on the so called motion elements of the target--its course and velocity--provide initial targeting which in case of such weapon as Zirkon, at the range of salvo of about 800 kilometers, will have Tau (the delay time) of arrival to initial position of target a circle with the radius of R=Vtarget x Tau, or, if one wants to play with numbers:

1. Tau (at Mach=9) for Zircon = 4 minutes (for Kinzhal at M=11-12 will be around 3);

2. For target, say high speed carrier or DDG--30 knots, this is 30/6=5 cables per minute. 

3. Thus, the circle (pay attention--this is if we don't know target's course, if we do--the circle will become a sector) will have a radius:

         R=5 x 4=20 cables or 2 nautical miles, or roughly 4 kilometers. 

We know for sure (based on data on high selection-high ECM resistant radar seekers of such weapons as P-800 Onyx) that the minimal range of both radio and optronic seekers on either Kinzhal or Zircon is at least +-45 degrees angular coverage and range is at least 40 kilometers.  So, even if we shoot a single Zircon at the latest known position of target with Tau of 4 minutes, the range and width of coverage allow to find the target even if it has the speed of 60 and even 80 knots. In reality the width of the front will be:

                 W=R*2sin45=40 (км) *2*0,707=40*1,414=56.56 

or roughly 57 kilometers. 

So, even in this primitive scenario, for the target (the ship) to be able to escape beyond the width of the frontal coverage of Zircon (or Kinzhal) it will have to have the speed of 57 kilometers / 4 minutes = 14 + kilometers per minute or 870 kilometers per hour which also happens to be the average speed of a commercial jet such as A-320 or B-757. Obviously there are no known surface ships which are capable to do so. I doubt there ever will be, but, as you already all know in a missile exchange you launch a salvo of 2-4-6 etc. missiles whose task is to provide a leaker, or a missile which will break through air defense. 

So, you see. Once we omit here a rather complex issue of a resolution of uncertainties, sensor fusion and probabilities, as well as the issue of a Zircon's systems working properly (INS, updates, seekers, propulsion etc.) we arrive to a rather obvious conclusion that those who view targeting as a requirement to "pointing" target's position with the accuracy of 1 inch, they better update themselves on a modern missile tech, like since 1970s, when rules of missiles' launch were all about delivering missile to the range of detection by the missile's seeker (they vary from purely TV, to more complex optronics to radar to other things, wink, wink) and then... Well, some Soviet vessels and ships, such as hapless Musson (Monsoon) where my classmate lost his legs, learned it the hard way what happens when seeker captures the wrong target. Things changed dramatically since then, and what I wrote here is merely to underscore, yet again, how backward and badly educated those "experts" are if they think that receiving the targeting  and hitting the target 500 kilometers away is such a big deal. Not for Russians--they did it for decades and decades.

Read my lips: this is not a bravado, this is not an arrogance but the fact is that Soviet Navy was built around this concept--massive missile salvos at the maximum ranges which grew from 40-60 kilometers for venerable P-15 Styx to underwater start of the 600 kilometers-capable P-700 Granit and now 1000+ kilometer ranges. Russians have been at this longer than anyone else, simple as that. Good ol' MKRZ Legenda provided accurate targeting for Soviet Navy... even at the Royal Navy's assets during Falkland War. South Atlantic, guys, no less. Why they remain "surprised" dumbfounds me completely. Soviet/Russian anti-shipping missile developments has been documented extremely well and since 1990s Russians never made a secret out of it. In fact, they warned non-stop for the last three decades that hyper-sonic weapons and their enablers are in works and they are coming. Well, they came--now live with them. And don't tell anyone that you haven't been warned. 

In related news. It seems that CIA Director Burns spoke to Putin while visiting Moscow, and since the visit was requested by the American side, there is very little doubt that Burns had a message to Putin from Biden (or whoever is controlling Biden). Dems need something from Russia. They know their hold on power is tenuous now (not that GOP is much better, only marginally) and some arrangements are needed and, possibly, related to China.  

Why They Are Nervous. Short Excurse Into the Modern War. Part 4.

Now to the most important part. Recall what I wrote about ASW and missile attack in the previous three posts? Now forget it all because today it matters only under some extremely limited circumstances. Here is a simple illustration about CBG's relative scale to modern ranges. 

In this case, as you can easily see, it really doesn't matter how you configure your ASW for CBG, we don't even talk about a group of ships on their own, with only MH-60R Seahawks as air ASW assets at their disposal. Those are magnificent and advanced machines but their problem for modern ocean-wide warfare is the fact that they have a speed of 270 kilometers per hour and a maximum range of 830 kilometers, that is the range at which they can fly in ASW configuration in a straight line, but as you can already surmise, ASW is a very energy costly affair (with all this hovering and dipping at the Datum), granted that this Datum is (was) provided by good ol' Soviet Charlie-IIs and Malakhits. 

This time is over. Introduction of P-700 Granit with its range of 600 kilometers and fully networked salvo of these missiles in early 1980s was the thing which finally transferred ocean warfare from a combination of ASW and Air Defense to almost strictly Air Defense problem, granted huge Project 949A (Oscar-IIs) SSGNs could be tracked by the US SSNs at the ranges beyond CBG's ASW ranges. Sometimes they could track Oscars, sometimes they couldn't. But there was one thingy about those pesky P-700 Granits--unlike with Malakhits and other older anti-shipping missiles, there were a significant chances to miss a Flaming Datum when Oscars launched their Grantis. Once they were airborne it was entirely up to E-2 Hawkeyes to detect such a salvo and vector on-duty F-18s and F-14s for an intercept. Let's fast forward a bit, P-800 Onyx emerges and while officially its range is 660 kilometers, it is a much more advanced missile and its latest versions are reported to have a range in excess of 800 kilometers and speeds in excess of Mach=3. Look above at the illustration. What's left then? How to deal with this threat? Right--one needs Aegis and Standard missiles which theoretically can handle a salvo of...P-700 Granits. Theoretically. 

But P-700s are old missiles, what are you going to do against Onyx with submerged start? Welcome to a missile exchange paradigm and welcome to Salvo Equations. But since we discuss a real war not some fanboys' rah-rah bullshit from Popular Mechanics or Forbes, we have to recall that the war is a probabilistic event. So, what are, then, ways both warring sides approach and tackle this problem? Remarkably they are very similar because the same math and physics is used. For a commanding officer of ANY sub in the world carrying anti-shipping (or even TLAM) missiles the first thing which comes to mind is the assessment of Probability of a Success of whatever his sub is going to do, in our particular case--shooting and destroying a surface target(s).  In old times poor lads and their navigator and weps guys would calculate this probability by hand, by calculators etc. Until Combat Informational Control Systems or Battle Management Systems (Computers) which started to appear in their advanced forms precisely starting from the times mentioned many times before Charlies started to deploy, they started to calculate those probabilities based on the fusion of incoming data ranging from targeting to tactical and operational data from many sources (sonar, comms, visual, radar etc.). 

As we all know from the basic probability course, the probability of just about any event is calculated by multiplying probabilities of many related events which must occur in order for us to have a shot at achieving what we set to achieve.    

As you can see yourself a lot has to be done to kill a target. Even if you have a probability of detecting a target Pdetection =0.95, and the reliability of our targeting Ptargeting=0.95 and we have a probability of remaining undetected by enemy equaling 0.9 and whatever other probabilities factor in our probability of killing our target Pn=0.9, we will get: Pkill= 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.9 x 0.9 = 0.731. These are not the best chances but they are solid. We would love our chances to be within 0.9-0.99 (wink, wink) range. So, how do we increase our chances? Range and speed and excellent combat training. 

 

Once tactical characteristics of 3M22 Zircon have been confirmed, a man, who unlike me has an impeccable background in submarine warfare, Captain 1st Rank Igor Kurdin, who is usually very reserved about weapons, went on record: 

«Дальность «Циркона» составляет от 500 до 1000 километров. С такого расстояния никто нашу подлодку не засечет, если только за ней не следят давно и целенаправленно», – рассказал председатель Санкт-Петербургского клуба моряков-подводников ВМФ, капитан 1-го ранга Игорь Курдин. Собеседник напомнил, что задача американских противолодочных сил – засечь нашу АПЛ до того, как она произведет ракетные пуски. «Гиперзвуковая скорость предполагает, что после пуска «Циркон» практически невозможно уничтожить», – добавил он. 

Translation: “The range of the Zircon is from 500 to 1000 kilometers. From such a distance, no one will spot our submarine, unless they have been tracking it for a long time and purposefully, "said the chairman of the St. Petersburg Navy Submariners' Club, Captain 1st Rank Igor Kurdin. The interlocutor recalled that the task of the American anti-submarine forces is to detect our nuclear submarine before it launches missile launches. “The hypersonic speed suggests that once the Zircon is launched it is almost impossible to destroy,” he added.

We look again at the illustration in the beginning of this post and take in the range of 800 km. If such a range is viewed for regular Onyx with its varying speed on the flight path in excess of Mach=1.5-2.0 with acceleration to M=3.0 at the terminal, we are looking at the average velocity of M=2.0, which gives us Time = 800 km/2450 km/hr = 0.32 of an hour or roughly 19-20 minutes. With Zircon and its average of Mach=9 we are looking at 800/11025= 0.072 of an hour, which is around 4 minutes. No system can react to this, nor there are any air defense means which can intercept such a missile in any quarters, be it head on or, let alone, in pursuit, granted it is even detected, not to speak of a Datum which may stop being a Flaming one. This is for only one 3M22, when they fly in salvo of 2 or more...take a guess.  It comes down to merely reliability of missile itself, its ability to perform strictly on its technical merit which defines the probability of a kill. Here is what I wrote three years ago in my book:

A going and reasonable assumption today in regard to the latest anti-shipping hyper-sonic weapons is that the probability of intercept of such weapons, capable of Mach=9+, well in excess of any existing anti-missile weapons, even without maneuvering on terminal approach, is statistically insignificant. That is, in a basic Salvo Model for the losses of attacked force:

Where b1 is staying power of ships in enemy force B, which is the number of the missiles required to take out of action those respective ships. It takes a single missile of such a class to put any large combatant, with the possible exception of a nuclear aircraft carrier, completely out of action, thus making b1 =1. Coefficient b3 denotes a defensive power of the ships in B, which is the number of good enemy shots which will be destroyed or deflected by the defender—there is really no objective evidence of modern AD systems being capable of intercepting hyper sonic missiles. This makes b3 = 0 and, consequently, makes the multiple of b3 B = 0 ; this is a definition of a turkey shoot, in which the attrition ΔB of the opposing force, depends strictly on a number of hyper sonic missiles in A’s salvo at B. In other words, the equation is reduced to:

because  b1 =1 Alpha (α ) denotes the striking power of A, which is the number of missiles which would hit the target if there were no defense. There is no defense currently and this effectively eliminates B as a player in case of a missile exchange with A, thus making the exchange mostly a matter of reliability of missiles themselves. 

We will review those salvo transformations later, but for now a juicy piece of math with formula for a salvo by a group of subs, or missile carriers on the surface, just tweak some coefficients.

Pay attention to both Qs. You can easily find the textbook The Submarine Tactics by Captain 1st Rank Khvosh in Russian and, of course, intellectual tour-de-force by legendary late Captain Wayne Hughes and his Fleet Tactics and Coastal Combat. 

 

To be continued...

Short Explanation.

Andrei Raevsky sent me this first and now I noticed our friend Marko also had his hand on the pulse. So, here it is: 

(CNN)The US suffered a setback in the race with China and Russia to develop hypersonic weapons when its latest test failed, the Pentagon said in a statement Thursday. A booster stack, which is the rocket used to accelerate the projectile to hypersonic speeds, failed and the test of the projectile, the hypersonic glide body, could not proceed, the statement said.Because the rocket failed the Pentagon was not able to test the hypersonic glide body, which is the key component needed to develop a hypersonic weapon.Officials have started a review of the test, which took place Thursday at the Pacific Spaceport Complex in Kodiak, Alaska, to understand the cause of the booster failure. 

As I repeat ad nauseam: there are hyper-sonic weapons and there are hyper-sonic weapons. The United States is trying to come up with something like both Avangard (long-range) and Kinzhal (medium range) which are either ballistic or quasi-ballistic weapons which do fly either inside the atmosphere or bounce from its edge, such as those gliders akin to Avangard. Eventually, the United States will be able to come up with something like that and the US desperately wants something like Kinzhal (in effect an advanced airborne version of Iskander). These are weapons which have only a boost phase, after which they fly and maneuver without propulsion. Look also up project Kholod. 

Now, 3M22 Zircon is a whole other animal altogether because it has a propulsion which works till the very end and thus provides this missile with the atmospheric speed of M=10 and the range of 1000 kilometers, coming modification of GZUR and Zircon will have the range of 1500 km and speed in excess of M=12-13. These weapons can attack both moving targets (like ships) and, obviously, stationary objects. These are the real game changers in a real war. If strategic weapons such as Avangard are what the United States wants, those, like any other deterrent exists to... deter merely by the threat of their use in case shit hits the fan. Kinzhal with Zircon, however, are the weapons of battlefield, because their main task is to sink enemy's ships and blow up military facilities using non-nuclear ordnance, albeit these weapons too can carry nuclear warhead and can destroy a good size city. If Avangard was created to be uninterceptable  by dedicated weapons of (strategic) Anti-Missile Defense, both Kinzhal and Zircon cannot be intercepted by existing air-defense and anti-missile systems such as THAAD or SM3/SM6 variety integrated with the AEGIS.   

While Avangard, and Sarmat (especially Sarmat) render any anti-missile defense useless, Kinzhal and Zircon are the most impactful, because they change modern warfare radically and already made modern surface fleets obsolete even within non-nuclear paradigm. As I repeat ad nauseam about repeating this ad nauseam--this is a strategic catastrophe for NATO (and US) because everything what NATO's "fighting doctrine" was built around in the last 40-50 years has become simply useless. I will give some ASW math on that later, but a single Yasen-class (pr. 885) with 15-20 Zircons "parked" somewhere  in the Atlantic in 1000 kilometer range from D.C. is not only extremely hard to detect and will require enormous forces dedicated to this kind of ASW, but controls the movement of any US naval asset from Norfolk or any other base on the East Coast which in case of (God forbids) real war will not be able to deploy. Granted, of course, that Russia builds 10 of such subs, modernizes couple of pr. 949A to AMs (that is 72 cruise missiles, including God knows how many Zircons) and there you go. So, in other words, it is not going to be a single sub. 

In related news, Russia officially announced the increase of range of venerable X-35 (of Bal complex) to 500+ kilometer, after Russkies were scared shitless by great American "strategist", prognosticator, second coming of Clausewitz and Sun Tzu wrapped in one, really, the great heir to the intellectual prowess of Mahan and Zumwalt, David Axe who promised to starve Kaliningrad by Estonian 300 km range anti-shipping missiles. As you know,  Shoigu and Gerasimov start their every morning by going to Forbes site trying to learn if David Axe has come up with a new stratagem designed to defeat those pesky Russkies. So, they went, saw the article on Estonian missiles, got scared and decided that covering both Baltic and Black Seas with the salvos (each of them) capable to contain between 16 to 32 X-35s is a really bad news for any NATO forces there, especially mighty Estonian ones. I would love to explain to David Axe basic math behind Salvo Equations and distribution of probabilities, but I don't think he wants to lower himself to my primitive level, so I have to live with that and I am sure Shoigu and Gerasimov will continue visiting those "military" sites such as Forbes or The National Interests to partake in strategic and operational wisdom of their "experts".

About Zircon, Again.

Judging by the stream of the news re: latest launch by Admiral Gorshkov of 3M22 Zircon, tests are very successful and as TASS reports (in Russian) another three launches from Gorshkov are planned by the end of the year. This includes the strike at the target imitating aircraft carrier. This is only natural and easy to foresee. Somewhere in these launches is supposed to be an underwater launch from one of the Yasen-class (project 885) SSGNs, last time it was Severodvinsk, I believe, which was planned to be used as a platform for this launch. As was expected, and guys on discussion boards already pointed out to this fact--there is a lot of butt-hurt and spin in Western media re: this launch. But then again, recall an initial reaction and then torturous (for the West) transition through Kubler-Ross Grief Model. It eneded up, of course, the United States demanding to include those non-existent weapons into the START treaty. I wonder why I don't hear anything yet from our great "strategist", prognosticator of prognosticators, exemplary military mind David Axe, but I am sure he will lend his expertise in Soviet/Russian weapons' programs any minute now.

I am on record, consistently, that moving into hyper-sonic paradigm IS a real revolution, cannot get any more real than that. It is a revolution because it changes the nature of warfare. Putin, when speaking to Valery Gerasimov upon Zircon's launch was explicit--it is event  of a massive scale for Russia. Well, for the world too. Another "expert", Kyle Mizokami, writing about Zircon gets it all wrong. 

Zircon is designed to use white-hot speed to hit targets before they can mount an effective defense. If a defending ship has its search radar mounted 100 feet off the ground and Zircon flies at an altitude of 1,000 feet (the real number might be much lower), the radar should detect the missile around 50 miles. At 1.7 miles per second, Zircon will close the gap in just 29 seconds, meaning the defending ship will need to detect, track, identify, launch defensive missiles, and achieve intercept in less than half a minute. 

As any Russian anti-shipping (or land-attack) missile Zircon has a multi-variant flight paths and it can approach target on different trajectories, including "diving" into the cone of radar blindness, attacking almost vertically, similar to X-32. But this is beyond the point, any intercept of maneuvering M=8+ missile is not the matter of "29" seconds (granted it will be detected at all--and there are reasons to assume that even detecting this type of missile is extremely difficult), it is physically impossible even under the best of circumstances to do anything. The salvo of 4 or 6 Zircons--it is beyond capability of the most advanced anti-air/missile systems to even react and will remain so for a long period of time. 

There is no technological solution for stopping this type of weapons  in the US currently. Ramifications are colossal: generally, it will be slow arduous reshaping of surface fleets towards smaller (frigate size) strike platforms. For Russian Navy, Zircon unties hands in terms of Sea Control not only in littoral and Green Water zones but, upon necessity, in the remote or ocean zone, allowing to guard surface strike groups against any attempts of US Navy to bring to bear its CBGs' fire power. Thus aircraft carriers are finally removed to the niche where they belong--primarily a power projection tool against unstable entities. Obviously a gigantic expenditure of building and maintaining any US Navy's CBG  raises the serious question about a validity of the approach of having roughly $20 billion worth of hardware (CVN+escort ships+air wing) being commensurate with a rather very limited tasks this insanely expensive force can perform under present conditions. It is too expensive to bomb some shithole of a country somewhere, but attacking Russia? What a wonderful collection of expensive, prestigious targets. 

With Russia having officially announced 7 subs and 5 frigates already planned for being armed with Zircon, plus having potentially other 6 modernized Udaloys (project 1155M) armed with a full version (1000+ km range), not to speak of a massive fleet of Russia's small missile ships (pr. 21631 and 22800) slanted to receive Zircon Light (around 500+ kilometer range) version, one is forced to ask a question--What Now? Now Marshal Billingslea will try to, yet again, pretend that Russia will negotiate on her newest arsenal and he will "press" Russians who, probably, will giggle in private about being "pressed", into some sort of compliance with... whatever will be the flavor of the month in D.C. Of course, the most terrifying prospect for the US is appearance of some sort of similar weapon in China's hands. Not that it will happen necessarily, but who knows--Russia will not allow China to fall militarily if the shit will hit the fan (God forbids) and some crazies (and there is plenty of those) in D.C. will decide to finally direct America's implosion outside by starting a "little victorious" war. Even old fool Kissinger noticed:

The US needs to rethink its hegemony and talk to China about imposing limits on their competition, because the alternative is the creation of conditions similar to those that preceded World War I, Henry Kissinger has warned.“Our leaders and their leaders have to discuss the limits beyond which they will not push threats, and how to define that,” said Kissinger, a top diplomat during the Nixon administration, who is credited with orchestrating US rapprochement with China. “You can say this is totally impossible, but if it is, we will slide into a situation similar to World War I,” he warned.

The United States simply has no good options currently. None. The less bad option, however, is to talk to Russians and not in terms of geopolitical BS and wet dreams that the United States, somehow, can convince Russia "to abandon" China--US has nothing, zero, to offer Russia to do so. But at least Russians and Americans may finally settle peacefully this "hegemony" BS between themselves and then convince China to finally sit as a Big Three at the table and finally decide how to run the world. This is the only chance for the US to stay relevant in the new world. US either negotiates and accepts limits of its influence or it will vanish one way or another. Anyway, there is a lot to ponder on this issue, because the world changes with the insane speed. Bad timing, I picked the wrong week to finish my third book, LOL. 

God, do you remember those times when America was fun and laughed at itself sincerely. MAFA--Make America Fun Again, I kid, I kid;) 

RMA.

I understand that long forgotten art of simplest, middle school level, linear extrapolation based on two or three, or four data points is only now being resurrected in American top policy (or lack thereof, rather) circles. But it seems General John Heyten tried to deliver the "news" (those are the "news" only for Washington political "elite") yet again at Space Symposium on Tuesday. 

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. — The head of U.S. Strategic Command would not say whether the United States has seen evidence of Russia’s “invincible” hypersonic missile, but the U.S. military has observed both Russia and China operating hypersonic missiles of varied capabilities, he confirmed Tuesday. “I won’t give you any specifics about the means we use to watch that. I won’t give you any of the technical specifics about the capabilities of those missiles,” Gen. John Hyten told reporters at the Space Symposium. “But I can tell you that we have observed both Russia and China testing hypersonic capabilities.”

The Kinzhal hypersonic cruise missile, which will be able to be equipped with both a nuclear and conventional warhead, can “overcome all existing and, I think, prospective anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems,” Putin said then. Whether that missile is in its developmental stages or actually undergoing operational tests, Hyten wouldn’t say. But it was obvious he took Putin’s claims very seriously. “You should believe Vladimir Putin about everything he said he’s working on,” Hyten said. “Now, the operational status of a lot of those capabilities…that’s a different issue. But everything that he’s said, I know that Russia’s working on, and we watch them very closely. We also listen to what they say very closely, and none of what he did and none of what he said surprised me.”

The issue here is extremely, like almost kindergarten level, simple—the US and her so called Russia's "military expertdom", bar some very few (and I mean a very small number: 5-6 at most, if not fewer) real professionals and true experts, is pathetic. It has a "stellar" record of neither predicting nor understanding Soviet/Russian military-technological realities nor operational, strategic or political ramifications of just about anything Russia (or USSR) ever produced in her military technology. It is akin to explaining the aliens from other galaxy who procreate by spawning what is the meaning of unprotected sex. 

Soviet Union lead the United States in supersonic cruise missiles for many decades. Kinzhal or no Kinzhal, 3M22 Zircon or no Zircon, an overwhelming lead by USSR in this field became clear already by 1970s. M=2.5 at high altitude capable P-700 Granit became the mainstay of anti-shipping and secondary TLAM capability in Soviet Navy by 1980. West had nothing comparable. By the time P-800 Onyx (Oniks) came around in late 1980s only moron couldn't see where this all was going. The race was always for hyper-sonic speeds to limit reaction time of whatever air-defense systems NATO fleets would deploy and to deny any "traverse", let alone "catch up" intercepts in case of relatively high densities of AD means, such as the case with US Navy's CBGs. 4-6 3M54 missile salvo, especially from underwater, provides very high probabilities of at least the leaker or two, that is missiles which break through AD screen and hit targets, 10-20 missile salvo spells the doom to any group of the ships, including aircraft carrier. Zircon or Kinzhal make any group of surface ships simply defenseless. 

So, what's left for Pentagon to do in this case? As Russians themselves admitted, the United States works hard on some kind of hyper-sonic system but it is highly doubtful that it will come on-line, at least in IOC, such as Kinzhal has already, any time soon. As simply sensational performance of Pantsir S1 in Syria recently demonstrated, the fact US media are desperately trying to hide from public, any subsonic target for such systems is simply not a serious target, especially in the case of full integration into Russia's vast and powerful C4ISR complex. Starting from the third hull of Project 22800 Karakurt, all ships of this class will have navalized version of this very Pantsir, which will make those numerous ships not just capable, both anti-shipping and land-attack, missile platforms, but excellent air-defense screens. Pantsir, obviously, had no difficulties dealing with allegedly "Smart" and "stealthy" JASSMs (or naval version—LRASM). For now, the only weapon which is high supersonic on any US carrier is an aircraft carried HAARM missiles. The launch of such a weapon against the most likely background of pr. 22350 Gorshkov-class frigates, acting as a core of Ships Strike Group, armed with Redut AD complex mitigates any launch of HAARMs since requires any HAARM carrier to enter kill-zones and that is just one of the scenarios which doesn't account for impressive ECM-ECCM capabilities.  

Will the US at some point of time procure something more powerful and capable than venerable Harpoon or Tomahawk? Stop-gap measure of using SM-6 as "anti-shipping missile" is not being taken very seriously, at least not in Russia:

The US Navy is seeking to adapt the Standard 6 (SM-6) missile for use against ships. If this modification is successful, the range of the SM-6 will be increased from 250 km to 370 km. This is a new anti-ship mode that can shoot down airborne threats, and now the same missile can attack and destroy a ship at long range. The Navy wanted to spend $2.9 billion over the five years FY17-FY22on the modified SM-6 as part of its “distributed lethality” initiative. This new anti-ship mode makes the SM-6 highly lethal due to its speed and agility and nearly overnight doubles the purpose of every such missile used across our fleet of Aegis destroyers. Boeing’s (BA) Harpoon anti-ship missile has a range of about 67 nautical miles, less than 130 km. 

It is inevitable that US will get it done at some point of time but with modern Russian anti-shipping missiles hitting already launch ranges of 800+ kilometers, while improving the lethality of their AD systems, it really makes those stop-gap measures look merely as "doing something". This is WITHOUT consideration of Kinzhal and what it brings operationally and strategically. With Kinzhal and eventual deployment of MiG-31BMs which carry it to Syria, one can easily understand gigantic geopolitical ramifications. Perspective Russian destroyers, yes-yes, I know the score with those—long a tedious process of design, re-design and re-design yet again, with all those Design Bureaus showing off their models and exercising in PR, should be armed with either navalized S-400 of latest versions or, if available by then, navalized S-500, the whole concept of war in the ocean (and land) will be completely changed. Well, it already is changed—but who knows, we may indeed, be facing the final coming of long awaited but never materialized in 1990s and 2000s RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs). Who would have thought that it would be Russia, not US, who brought this about.   

UPDATE: Oh, goody, here we go again.  

Washington (AFP) - The US Air Force is awarding almost $1 billion to Lockheed Martin to design and develop a hypersonic missile that can be launched from a warplane.

The contract follows repeated warnings from senior defense officials about rapid advances by China and Russia in the field of hypersonic weaponry, where missiles can fly at many times the speed of sound and dodge missile-defense systems.

This, of course, was totally expected and predicted. 

Gary Pennett, director of operations at the Missile Defense Agency, recently said enemy hypersonic weapons -- which could be launched from planes, ships or submarines -- would create a "significant" gap in US sensor and missile interceptor capabilities.  

In related news for Gary Pennett, the gap "would not" be created, it has already been created. I am not sure, however, about China's real, not claimed, capabilities. They were doing their thing for a while too. Now, as was discussed on this blog not for once--what would US Navy's Carrier Union do, when its very own carrier offsprings, highly experienced carrier aviators, Commanders Joseph A. Gattuzo and Lori J. Tanner brought this issue up like this in 2001:

“In the past, the successful nations were those who best tailored force structures to meet political objectives... Cruise missiles will replace manned aircraft and sink the ships that carry them... Money spent furthering manned aircraft technologies and programs—the CVNX (proposed Nimitz-class carrier replacement) being one of them—is like polishing cannonballs so they will fly a little farther.”

Ah-h, this ever annoying force structure issue.