Yes, Yes, But ...

 ... it is all staged. And it is in Moscow only. Russian propaganda. I agree, the deli, meat and fish departments in, say, Globus 100 km away from Moscow are much larger than what is shown here;)) Vladivostok with Novosibirsk are nearing famine. While you can see kilometer long lines in Samara for bread and maybe, if they are lucky, cabbage. 

Larry Thinks About Hunger, Patrick--About Mistakes.

Larry Johnson asks a question--are we in for a famine? This is not a vain question, it is a very important one and Larry gives some numbers:

Let me help you with the math–Russia and the Ukraine combined accounted for 33% of all wheat exports among the top ten exporters. Russia exports more than the United States. Let that sink in for a moment.  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is highly likely to disrupt Ukraine’s ability to fully plant and harvest wheat in 2022. And Russia will be blocked, in theory at least, from being able to accept U.S. dollars for its wheat export. On March 9 President Putin signed an order banning the exports of some goods and raw materials.

Larry presents some figures which should (we can only hope) give some pause to insanity which passes in the US for "foreign policy" and economics. Read the whole thing at Larry's blog--the link is in my blog-roll. 

Patrick Armstrong meanwhile writes about what he got wrong. I disagree, he got things right based on available information of that time. Nobody knew, albeit many did suspect, that new facts will change the thought process by many analysts, me included, about the objectives of Russia's campaign in 404. As Patrick writes:

So why was I wrong? What did I miss? I believe I missed three things – two I didn’t know about and one that I did but did not properly weigh. These are: the nuclear weapons issue, the planned strike on LDNR and the biolabs.

Biolabs is a huge issue with the US de facto admitting through Nuland's response at the hearings in Congress about them that the US was involved in developing bio-weapons program in Ukraine and was also working on a genetic weapons. This issue is not going anywhere, it will stay top and center in Russia's foreign policy agenda and it will feature prominently at the War Crimes Tribunal. By now Russian MoD and FSB have more than enough documents and witnesses to make a case, a very strong one.  

Lara Logan, however, makes one mistake, albeit it is not her mistake--it is an inevitable confusion by those in the US military who grasp at the last straw of US military credibility trying to confuse people who are removed from operational matters:

RuAF is a completely different animal than the USAF. Moreover, the flying hours of RuAF are probably in the top 5 in the world and RuAF performed extremely well, supporting a very high operational tempo in Syria, and now did an admirable job in 404. But that brings us to a larger issue which I stress all the time--Russia and the US fight very differently, but the US military is extremely sensitive when it comes to its combat "record" which, frankly, is underwhelming in the last 70+ years and the US fighting doctrine is distilled into a very simple principle--get overwhelming air dominance (against third rate opponents) and then blow shit indiscriminately. 

Moreover, the USAF doesn't know what it means to fight in the modern EW and AD environment. The last time it faced more or less adequate AD was in Vietnam and it lost 10,000 aircraft, 2,500 of them combat fixed wing ranging from B-52 strategic bombers to F-4s and even UAVs. Russian VKS of 2022 are a completely different game. And any USAF operations against Russia's VKS in a real conventional war will result in the most dramatic losses. Again, this only applies if US (NATO) air forces survive the meeting with Russia's high precision stand-off weapons at air bases. If to believe this video, it is Kinzhal flying to target--underground bunkers with ammo and weapons in Western Ukraine. Those were build to withstand indirect nuclear explosion impact. Kinzhal, reportedly, had no problems destroying them. I doubt this video shows Kinzhal, but still, military porn.

In related news, all Bastion launchers are capable to launch 3M22 Zircon. Evidently, per Russia's MoD, P-800 Onyx from Bastions are actively used in 404. I will expand on this military porn issue later. That's the primer for the weekend.

I Would Love To Celebrate North American World Cup 2026, But I Can Not.

Both Bernhard of Moon of Alabama and Daniel Larison of The American Conservative to their highest human credit are ringing in all bells to attract attention to a possible famine and genocide which Saudi Arabia, with the help of UK and US, is about to unleash by attacking Hodeidah--the only port-city which provides delivery of food to Houthis. 

Here is Larison:

The Saudi coalition has waged their war on Yemen with flagrant disregard for the lives of the civilian population, and with the attack on Hodeidah they are doing the same thing on a larger scale. The U.N. and aid agencies have all warned against this attack because of the horrific consequences that will follow, and as usual the coalition governments have ignored those warnings and pressed ahead anyway. The U.S. has been a major enabler of the coalition’s war effort for the last three years, but instead of using its leverage with the coalition to prevent this atrocity the Trump administration is going along with and actively helping the attack. The Saudi coalition has been imposing collective punishment on the people of Yemen for three years in their bid to starve the country into surrender, and by attacking the port that the vast majority the population relies on for their food, fuel, and medicine they are intensifying their efforts to strangle Yemen to death. We are witnessing a massive crime being committed against the people of Yemen, and once again the U.S. is aiding and abetting the governments responsible for it.

It is important to understand that the Saudi coalition would not have made it this far without U.S. military assistance. The U.S. is not simply an indifferent bystander. Our government is an active participant and belligerent in this shameful and atrocious war. Hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of Yemenis may die in the coming weeks and months because our government values good relations with reckless despots much more than it values their lives.

I have nothing to add here, other than this atrocity being a direct and completely justified case for R2P and by the Right to Protect I don't mean a casuistic cynical imperial action which American interventionists are so fond of, especially when bombing with impunity innocents. I mean literally--a protection of population of Houthis from deliberately induced famine by a Saudi regime of head-choppers and sponsors of terrorism, who also happened to be America's "dear allies". Obviously, very little could be done to stop this atrocity at this time, but documenting it becomes a very important task.  As well as keeping it visible in media.