Tuesday, September 5, 2023

Ilya Kramnik...

... is no "military expert". He never was. Graduating Moscow State University with law degree and then "transitioning" to "journalism" and studying warfare (in Russian), LOL, he, nevertheless, managed to insert himself, the same as recently fired director of the Institute of the USA and Canada, into the peacetime media "military expert" cabal. RT, whose only real military expert who writes for them in English is Scott Ritter, decided to inquire Mr. Kramnik about SMO. In the piece filled with platitudes and conjectures he makes, however, one fascinating conclusion. Exactly the kind one would expect from Moscow's humanities dumbed down Beau Monde, who, having zero military background, such as Karaganov, among many others, and having no clue about the subject of their "study" (combined West), still continue to wax "strategic". 

Here is what Kramnik states:

NATO could have avoided this situation by increasing the production of weapons and military equipment back in 2022, and deploying additional production facilities. In this case, some progress would already have been visible by the winter of 2023-24. However, the bloc did not have a unified vision regarding additional weapons production, which severely complicated the decision-making process. Not a single NATO politician was ready to guarantee arms manufacturing companies a steady, large-scale demand for weapons once the conflict in Ukraine ended. Moreover, even though the scale of the conflict is significant, it is in some cases insufficient to ensure the necessary demand for new weapons. Finally, it should be noted that a number of Western politicians and military leaders believed that the current military aid to Ukraine would suffice to meet the goals of 2023 – obviously, this was due to false conclusions made as a result of the battles in the Kharkov and Kherson regions in the summer-fall of 2022. 

Kramnik, as any Moscow "expert" who never worked a day worth in actual serious professional capacity, let alone served as cadre officer, and has zero STEM and serious industry background, continues to exercise a delusion that combined West could have, should the political guarantees have been extended to military-industrial complex, somehow ramped up weapons production and delivery to VSU. That exposes Kramnik as nothing more than a shyster who, while working for the section of the study of the US in the Institute of the Economic Relations and International Relations, didn't study modern US and especially its industrial capacity, or, rather lack thereof, and has absolutely no concept of how utterly corrupt and impotent Pentagon's procurement policies have been failing for decades preceding SMO. 

Generally, when I read all kinds of Russian "experts" RT loves to publish on matters of geopolitics, waxing all "strategic" and "doctrinal" and using such big words as "unified vision", I am forced to repeat what I am writing for years now--you do not have serious STEM background, military academic background and military-intel serious professional experience on the level of brigade staff office or CO of the company and larger--you cannot be taken seriously. And even that, as is being demonstrated by the bulk of US and UK generals, is not a guarantee from being stupid. And then there is this teeny-weeny factor of clearance, which for people like Kramnik or Valdai boys, quoting my friend colonel Volodya Trukhan (you can hear it at Vera's, Volodya and my podcast only on VK) is defined as "get the fuck out of here clearance". So, if Kramnik doesn't understand fundamental issues of CINC (Composite Index of National Capability), or never internalized what Jeffrey Barnett prophetically defined in Parameters as 14 keys to power in early 1990s, I don't know how to help people like Kramnik. 

Kramnik, unlike me, with my rich experience of working in US commercial aerospace, also has no idea about criticality which accumulated in whatever is left in American industries, especially in terms of R&D and labor force, and, of course, he would have difficulty comprehending purely operational issue presented on a professional level--a precise level which is occupied by military professionals who calculate and plan a lot, and this cannot be "studied" without having prerequisites I listed above, namely professional military-intel background. And here we go again, RT provides the tribune to all kinds of Russian "experts" none of who, surprise, surprise, has any clue what they are talking about, OR, when such "experts" as Colonel Khodaryonok, who wouldn't find his ass with both hands in a brightly lit room as far as practical geopolitics is concerned, live by generating platitudes which, most of the time, contain no meaningful information.  

And so it goes on, and on, and on, and when I talk to my friends in Russia, the answer to the question of why my books will not be translated and published in Russia, the answer is simple--a large portion of Russian media Americanists and "military experts" should be then thrown out of work as shysters and BSers. Many of them are. Sadly, I cannot post here the link to Solovyov's video a couple of days ago when this creature suddenly... assaulted all those "military bloggers" and voenkors he himself... promoted so actively. Well, times are changing, aren't they. Everybody wants to be at the filled to the brink trough and fat media tit of Russian State, but it is too late for them--they discredited themselves in the most dramatic manner. And that is the "unified vision" Kramnik better acquaints himself with, before writing anything on issues he has zero understanding. The time of real professionals has come.

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