Wednesday, August 30, 2023


For those who still don't get it and do not want to see the reality of SMO. This is Torfyanovka border crossing facility at Russian-Finnish border. 

We crossed it twice--once on the way to St. Petersburg from Helsinki, once--other way around. There are busses between St. Petersburg and Helsinki. Nice, comfortable (with the toilet) busses. Every single vehicle stops both on Finnish and Russian check points, people disembark and go through customs and passport control. In Russia it is run, naturally, by Border Guards of FSB RF. Checks are thorough. And here is this illustration: once we all disembarked on Russian side (for entry) we, as American citizens, have been singled out (the only people from G-7 on the bus) and pushed ahead of everybody in the line. It was expected and FSB spoke to us for about 20 minutes while everyone was getting checked. After that and thorough check of our phones we have been let go.

And here is illustration: the only other non-Russian citizen persons who have been pushed even ahead of us have been a young mother and her son of about 10 years. Both had Ukrainian passports. Well, guess what--after 15-20 minutes of questioning they have been led inside service facilities and, as a result, they have been taken from the bus. Why, you may ask. Well, the explanation is filthy simple--under this "brotherly people" BS premise Russia, together with millions of genuinely displaced people allowed into the country a huge number of Ukies who hate Russian guts and continue their both passive and active "resistance"--a euphemism for sabotage and terrorism--against Russia. FSB has its hands full with detecting and eliminating a huge number of sleeper cells run by SBU and GUR under control of MI6, CIA and others on Russian territory and this involves, and you have guessed it by now, a large number of mid to short range drone operators who constantly try, and sometimes succeed, to attack Russia's infrastructure. 

Many people still cannot wrap their brains around the fact that Russia's European part ALONE--the territory where 80% of Russians live and work--is almost 4 million square kilometers or 1.5+ million square miles. To give a proper comparison--it is almost the area of a whole European Union. So, make your own conclusion what it means to control such a territory (including newly added administrative subjects of 404)--even the best ISR means (and Russia DOES have best ISR means) do not guarantee detecting a group of saboteurs who can move into the launch area with hidden prepositioned or simply carried 10-12 drones and launch them at any target. Even modified 45 minutes endurance commercial drone with about 0.5 kilo of explosives attached to it gives you a range of about 40-50 kilometers. Let's recall middle school geometry: A=3.14 x 50^2 = 3.14 x 2,500= 7,853 square kilometers one must search and detect.  

If we re talking about drones with the range of 100 kilometers it gives you, consequently, the area of 31,400 square kilometers to control and search and here we are talking about equivalent of the territory of... Belgium. So, good luck opening the Theory of Search, together with the Theory of Probability, Statistics and the math and physics of modern ISR means and there you go--you may finally understand that technology alone is NOT enough, especially in the country covered with forests. One MUST have a superb human intel on the ground and the network of informants. In case of Russia we are talking about thousands upon thousands possible and highly probable Ukie saboteurs who are... drum roll--Russian citizens. Russia IS NOT going to do American Japanese "thingy" of 1940s. 

And now that you know these very simple facts you may appreciate the issue of Operational Sweeps, Probability Density Maps, sensor fusion and human intel, among many other things, which may help to understand the scale and the scope Russia's military-intel community faces in mitigating 404 (NATO's, really) threats. THERE WILL BE leakers, the sabotage will continue such as attacks on Pskov or Moscow, or Rostov-on-Don et al, and some will get lucky--it is inevitable in case of the scale of the events unfolding in a front of our eyes. It is simple as that. And that is why this Ukrainian woman and her son have been taken off the bus and have been led for thorough check. We learned later that after the checks have been completed she and her (now identified and confirmed) son have been put on the next bus to Russia. 

Meanwhile, one of the last remaining European statesmen, Viktor Orban notes what I am writing about for many years now:

The administration of US President Joe Biden “misunderstands” Russians if it expects economic sanctions and frontline losses to erode support for President Vladimir Putin, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has claimed. The focus of Western politics is on “how to provide more freedom to the people,” while for Russians the top priority is national unity, Orban told US journalist Tucker Carlson in an interview published on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday. “This creates a kind of military approach [by Russia]… always on security, safety, buffer zone, geopolitical approaches,” the Hungarian prime minister explained, arguing that this attitude was “legitimate” considering Russia’s history. “They misunderstand the Russians,” Orban said of the US leadership. “It is a difficult thing, especially when you have an ocean between you and Russia.”

As I am on record ad nauseam--people who run US degree mills for the "elite", they have no tool kit for grasping what it means being on the grounds of this, now beloved by Russians, cathedral:

And why the names of Alexander Nevsky, Mikhail Kutuzov and Zhukov with Rokossovsky, among many others, present today the unbreakable stream of Russia's 1,000 + years long history and why when you pass on the highway by Lakhta Center you see this grandiose sight:

And that is why the feeling of a calm confidence is palpable in Russia. Something clicked in such a way in Russia that US decision makers simply cannot understand. This is what Tolstoy called a "latent warmth of patriotism" among Russian Army personnel on the eve of Borodino Battle. So, one or two "successful" attacks by Kiev criminals change absolutely nothing and they know it. I warned long time ago that Russians are wrong people to fuck with but they never listen.

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