Sunday, May 21, 2023

Not The First Time...

... people point out to Sy Hersh and his "denigrating" of Russian Army.  Let me explain something:

1. Sy Hersh may be a very good investigative journalist with zero background in military science, engineering science and Russia. He may know who blew up NS 2, but he wouldn't know the difference between shit and shinola in any serious issue related to Russia as a whole, and Russian Armed Forces in particular.

2. He denigrates himself when waxing "strategic" because he wouldn't know what strategy of Russia both on national level and, especially, on the military one is--for that one should have a solid military-intel background. Sy Hersh has neither even if one considers, as many professionals in Russia do, that he is a conduit for important leaks from one of the power blocks within US political power structure. He certainly should stick to what he does best and that is investigate a government level mischief. 

Which brings us to this issue. In my latest video I already stated--it doesn't matter what NATO supplies to whatever is left of 404, it would make no difference on operational and strategic level, and as you may remember military science axiom--wars are won on operational and strategic levels. Couple of lucky sorties, a leaker or two on some target in Russia, or any other trick for the consumption of the fanboys and military hardware masturbators make absolutely no difference for the outcome. Lt.Colonel Daniel Davis gets it and lists only some issues related to modern air combat for US fighter planes:

For starters, it will take a long time to adequately train Ukrainian pilots and maintenance crews to be able to fly the jets into combat and keep them airworthy. In February, Undersecretary of Defense Colin Kahl said it would take between 18 and 24 months to get pilots and maintenance crews trained, airframes procured, and delivered on site for use. Yet a leaked Air Force assessment leaked last Thursday suggested the training time might be as few as four months. Even if that were true — and in all likelihood that would get pilots to a minimum capacity to fly the jets but be far from proficient in air-to-air combat — the process to identify F-16s from partner countries, get them airworthy, and then deliver them with the full contingent of maintenance supplies, spare parts, and ammunition, will likely take into 2024. 

There is little likelihood, therefore, the fighters will see combat over the skies of Ukraine this year. Secondly, while the F-16 is clearly one of the best fourth-generation fighter jets in the world, its primary effectiveness is predicated on being one component in an integrated command and control battle management system of sensors. While the jet is capable of operating on its own, it is far less capable without additional acquisition assets, such as the E-3 Sentry AWACS. To date, there has been no discussion of providing this capability to Ukraine. Third, the F-16 is not a stealth aircraft. It was first delivered to the active Air Force in 1979, and it is vulnerable to Russian air defenses, such as the S-300 and more advanced S-400 air defense systems. One of the reasons the Ukrainian Air Force has played such a minimal role in this war has been their inability to neutralize the Russian air defense networks. While the F-16 is more capable than the MiG-29s the Ukrainians have been using, it is still vulnerable to attack by Russia’s air defenses. 

This today's piece gets it somewhat, but here is the issue which is going to irritate many rah-rah boys who learned about modern air combat from the Top Gun: Maverick school of the advanced military studies and who still cannot wrap their brains around this simple fact: NO modern US pilot, even the Senator Kelly, ever flew any mission under the conditions of high density Air Defense, EW and being outgunned and outranged by the enemy's Air Force. None, zero, zilch, nada and, consequently, lacking practical (emphasis--PRACTICAL) tactical and operational experience and all necessary tactical and operational data, they are reduced to theoretical study of experiences of those very few Ukie and possibly NATO pilots who survived more than one mission against Russians. 

Moreover, Russian Air Force Beyond Visual Range (BVR) against capable MiG-29s, Su-27 and Su-24 of Ukie AF is staggering--a wet dream for very many in NATO Air Forces. Moreover, USAF NEVER operated against the best air defense in the world. Davis forgets that air domain in SMO is stuffed with not just S-300 or S-400s, nope, Tor-M2s, S1 Pantsirs, let alone Buk-M2 and M3, not to mention S-350 Vityaz are all there and it is them who create the most hostile air environment in history, as Ukie AF learned the hard way. Here are their losses in fixed and rotary wing aircraft:

As you can see yourself, for today (May 21, 2023) aggregate losses of the 404 AF are: 428 fixed wing aircraft, 234 rotary wing and 4,245 UAVs of all kind. We will learn later how many of those combined 428+234 = 662 manned aircraft have been shot down by combat aircraft of Russian VVS (Air Force) and how many by Air Defense complexes, but to provide some proper perspective on the intensity of the air combat in SMO, take a look at these numbers.
In other words, Russian VKS (Russian AF and AD are constituent parts of VKS) wiped out the equivalent of the French Air Force with every single aircraft in its inventory. This is for those people who still are puzzled why NASA and USAF pilot Senator Kelly is full o shit, a liar and a sore loser badmouthing Russian pilots. As I am on record, the USAF never experienced anything like this. As a result, including an ongoing implosion of the American military mythology, the desperation in Washington is palpable and in feeble attempts to save totally destroyed reputation of American weapons, those neocon fanatics will continue to throw at Russia everything they gave got. And they will lie openly for the whole world to see, pulling numbers out of their asses. 

Russia is ready for any contingency, including even the suicidal decision by Washington to throw whatever forces of the US Army they will be able to assemble. They will have the fate similar to VSU and that is why Russian Ground Forces have roughly half-a-million fresh and well trained troops in a strategic reserve in the rear. In this case, F-16s in 404 are just a desperate gesture against the background of a catastrophic military-economic collapse of the combined West and regimes who drove Western Civilization into the ground and who are feeling the pinch. In related news: war crimes tribunals are set up by victors and the West ain't victor. But I am sure they know it in D.C. and Brussels, right?

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