Chinese Are Practical People.

And when they see this flying yesterday from Irkutsk to Moscow non-stop for final certs:

Or this, also flying beautifully (ahem...):

Both being fully Russian aircraft which are powered by state-of-the-art PD-8, PD-14 and use Russian avionics, composites et al, Chinese know that PD-35 is coming and is not far away. You all remember how joint Russian-Chinese wide body aircraft CR-929 became C-929, because Russians didn't like how Chinese side viewed profits share. Now Chinese know that Russia fully recovered her commercial aircraft mojo and can do it all completely on her own. And suddenly, Russians are also practical and very delicate people who know that after all, it is Russia which is not only second (after the US) nation in the world capable totally out of own resources build state-of-the-art aircraft, but also the nation which tied all West's resources which otherwise would have been thrown against China. Comrade Xi is very sincere when stating today: 

ПЕКИН, 9 мая – РИА Новости. Россия и Китай должны быть настоящими друзьями, закаленными, как сталь, заявил председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин. "Необходимо поддерживать дружбу из поколения в поколение и быть настоящими друзьями, закаленными, как сталь", - приводит МИД КНР слова китайского лидера, сказанные во время встречи с журналистами после переговоров с президентом России Владимиром Путиным.

Translation: BEIJING, May 9 – RIA Novosti. Russia and China must be true friends, tempered like steel, said Chinese President Xi Jinping. "We must maintain friendship from generation to generation and be true friends, tempered like steel," the Chinese Foreign Ministry quotes the Chinese leader as saying during a meeting with journalists after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

And lo and behold:

Москва. 8 мая. ИНТЕРФАКС - Россия и Китай намерены продолжить сотрудничество по созданию дальнемагистрального широкофюзеляжного самолета, оно не прекращалось, заявил "Интерфаксу" первый вице-премьер РФ Денис Мантуров. Отвечая на вопрос о том, может ли РФ вернуться к кооперации с КНР по созданию широкофюзеляжного самолета, он сказал: "Может, мы его (сотрудничество - ИФ) и не прекращали".  ... В августе 2022 года руководство ОАК сообщило, что работа над CR929 продолжается, но с учетом последствий пандемии и введения против РФ санкций из-за конфликта на Украине формат участия в проекте придется "актуализировать". Мантуров тогда уточнял, что РФ будет участвовать в статусе поставщика агрегатов и компонентов для самолета, в мае прошлого года он подтверждал готовность России участвовать в проекте "на основе договора исполнителей". Вместе с тем, в феврале этого года совместное предприятие ООО "Инженерный центр программы СиАр929", учрежденное CRAIC в 2019 году под проект разработки дальнемагистрального пассажирского самолета CR929, подало заявление о ликвидации юрлица. Сейчас компания проходит соответствующие процедуры.

Translation: Moscow. May 8. INTERFAX - Russia and China intend to continue cooperation on the creation of a long-range wide-body aircraft; it has not stopped, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov told Interfax. Answering a question about whether Russia could return to cooperation with China on the creation of a wide-body aircraft, he said: "Maybe we have not stopped it (cooperation - IF)." ... In August 2022, the UAC management reported that work on the CR929 was continuing, but given the consequences of the pandemic and the introduction of sanctions against Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine, the format of participation in the project would have to be "updated." Manturov then clarified that Russia would participate as a supplier of units and components for the aircraft; in May last year, he confirmed Russia's readiness to participate in the project "based on a contractor agreement." At the same time, in February of this year, the joint venture Engineering Center for the CR929 Program LLC, established by CRAIC in 2019 for the project to develop the CR929 long-range passenger aircraft, filed an application for liquidation of the legal entity. The company is currently undergoing the relevant procedures.

Go figure, right? Well, there is nothing to figure here, actually. China knows that sanctions are coming and no amount of maneuvering can save both Comac-919 powered by US-French LEAP engines and, let alone, perspective "Chinese" C-929 which was planned as the aircraft (after letter "R" disappeared) which could be remotorized on the variety of the American and Rolls-Royce engines. And no, world-class competitive high bypass ratio Chinese engines are not coming any time soon. And here is this trick--any commercial aircraft Russia produces can be exported anywhere, because they are all Russian-manufactured. The only thing the US can do is to try blackmail potential buyers, but that's for other time to discuss--Boeing and Airbus have all reasons to sweat about MC-21. China, however, is pinned down now to its, however large, internal market and IS under the Sword of Damocles of not quite adequate POTUS who may, in the last ditch attempts to stop Chinese economic juggernaut, simply sanction jet engines and that will be it for Chinese attempt not only at competition abroad, but even domestically. So, enter PD-14 and PD-35 and Russian made subsystems from avionics to APU, to composites. Make your own conclusions. As I stated--Russians are very delicate people, apart from being very practical, like Chinese.

And She Flies With PD-14.

For aerospace industry professionals this is without a doubt a historic (for some joyous, for others--sad) event with Russia's returning to the very exclusive, elite club of full cycle production of commercial aircraft with own world-class, high bypass engine PD-14 (and all derivatives which will follow). Huge event. Here is MC-21 with PD-14 on maiden flight.

I can not stress enough a significance of this event. You can count nations producing own top notch commercial jet engines on the fingers of one hand: United States, France, UK, Russia. The rest of the world--not even close. 

Real Economies.

A superb demonstrator, and a "predictor" of the size of REAL economy globally through real tangible indicator--electricity generation. It gives a good framework and order of magnitude of what each nation is capable of and it explains why Russia is realistically 5th or 4th economy globally. 

Here is another video of an enormous significance, from yesterday: 

Here you can see the assembly of first MS-21 which starts test-flying with PD-14 engine in the nearest future. Well, that, plus Russia finishing final tests of GTD-110M, which is first fully Russian gas-turbine of very large (between 110 to 500 MWT) power (in Russian). That means one thing: bye-bye, Siemens (and GE as a very remote second). The serial production of GTD-110M starts in 2020. Meanwhile this shows that modern Russia, especially when one accounts for energy-saving technologies, in terms of electricity production begins to surpass that of the...Soviet Union.

But that brings me to the point of getting into a very "dangerous" field of the actual standard of living. Sergei Brekotin of Aftershock News went there (in Russian) yesterday:

But I have my own, down to earth, observations which I will share on the account of actual living standard in Russia and in the West, especially the United States. I'll give you a hint: Russia's ownership of personal automobiles grew tremendously, plus enormous number of Russians OWN some real estate which doesn't need to be mortgaged and paid off. And, you can easily buy antibiotics over counter which spares you visit to a doctor, which, most of the time, is free anyway. I'll elaborate on that later.    

A Tiny Piece Of News.

Behind all the chaos of modern world and a wall of BS by the so called "legacy" media, one piece of news is of a particular interest. While MAKS-2019 proceeds as planned, with MC-21 making a flying (public) debut, news of CR-929 getting to fly in 2023 are a huge deal. As Izvestiya reports two days ago (in Russian), Chief Designer of CR-929 program Maxim Litvinov (I wonder if he is related to Stalin's 1930s Peoples' Commissar of Foreign Affairs) stated that the first flight of CR-929 will happen in 2023 while serial production will start in 2025. This is fast, folks, for a project of such a scale, it is really fast. Russia, in this joint venture, is responsible for a design of the wing and center section of aircraft (in Russian) and, drum roll, for PD-35 engine, which will power this machine. 

As you know, PD-14 already received the certificate of a type and is in serial production for MC-21. Here is what was stated about PD-35 in 2017:

Russia’s new bypass turbofan engine, dubbed PD-35, will be developed in the next six years, Alexander Inozemtsev, chief designer of Aviadvigatel (a subsidiary of the United Engine Corporation), has told TASS news wire. The engine is intended to power future wide body aircraft, including the Russo-Chinese C929. Inozemtsev said the powerplant program is currently in the scientific research phase. Total investment in the project will amount to almost 180 billion rubles (approximately $3 billion). Of this sum, 60 billion rubles will be spent on test benches and laboratory equipment. The PD-35 is a turbofan engine projected to develop 35 tons of thrust. The program was launched in the summer of 2016 as a joint effort by Russia’s largest powerplant specialists, Perm-based Aviadvigatel and NPO Saturn, which is located in Rybinsk (both are part of the United Engine Corporation). The plan is to scale up the core of the PD-14 engine, which is currently being developed for the Irkut MC-21 narrow body airliner, and add a stage to its high-pressure compressor. There will be nine stages in the compressor and two stages in the turbine.

So, these latest news about CR-929 taking to the skies in 2023, then, could be viewed as a confirmation that PD-35 development is on schedule (give and take a year). This is also a confirmation of Russian civil aviation not just taking off--we knew that it was taking off years ago--but getting to the cruise echelon. As Yvonne Lorenzo reports (in her wonderful review of my new book):

Russian-based MAKS 2019 aviation exposition, Boeing was an exhibitor, and the news was reported on the site included, “Boeing Company will announce new strategic initiatives and sign agreements with Russian partners at the International Aviation and Space Salon, according to the press service of the American aerospace manufacturer. Boeing will sign a number of agreements with Russian companies at MAKS-2019. ‘Agreements will be signed with Russian partners and will strengthen long-term obligations within the framework of the company’s partnership with the Russian aerospace industry,’ the statement says.” Thus, sanctions notwithstanding, Russian companies continue to buy—or at least have an interest—in Boeing products and “god-emperor” Trump, “grand and glorious” though he may think himself has—as of now—not prohibited any such sales to Russia by a vital member of the Military-Industrial complex.

What do ya know. Of course, one should remember that a lot of things, including a wing for B-787, were designed at Boeing's engineering facility in Moscow. So, while the United States sanctions Russia non-stop and insists, especially, on Europe doing the same (those morons evidently took it too far for their own comfort now), somehow Boeing continues to operate in Russia and even, well look at that, hosts Russian school kids, the winners of the contest Aviation From A to Z in 2018 (in Russian). Indeed, and why would Boeing do such a thing (wink, wink). 

But all this brings us back to a purely geopolitical question. Whose side is Russia on?  The answer is very simple: Russia is on Russia's side, period. Moreover, pushing on with the development of the MC-21 and CR-929 and the line of their power-plants such as PD-14 and PD-35 Russia not only returns to own domestic civil aviation market with a vengeance, she made sure she will have a huge share of a Chinese one. While public at MAKS 2019, traditionally, was treated to a dizzying display by Russian combat aviation, it was this bird which stole the show for people who look at the world not just through the aiming device. 

In related news, Europe (the United States is not far behind, but there is still a hope, maybe) continues her descend into madness and totalitarianism with Thought Crimes exposed now by Thought Police non-stop. 

PHP Central Europe would have gathered hundreds of users of PHP, a popular programing language, together in Dresden in October, if not for one seemingly innocuous tweet that sowed the seed of destruction coated in a shell of positive verbiage. “This year's PHP CE conference seems to have gone with the ‘White Males Only’ conference lineup. Shame. It's 2019, we can do better,” wrote Karl L Hughes, an obscure tech industry figure and “concerned citizen”, who had no plans to travel to Germany himself. The tweet went viral....  after the brouhaha, “ticket sales stopped.” This week, organizers published a notice saying that the event in Dresden was canceled, citing the tweets and articles as the reason. They say that there will be no PHP CE conference next year or ever again.

I am not sure in 20 years Europe will be able to produce a decent kitchen combine, let alone aircraft, because it will be too busy developing mechanisms of upholding gender, race and religious quotas, lest there be a dominance of smart white males in manufacturing of the technologies for the XXI century.    

It Did Happen!

No, not the Ukraine electing a certified clown as her President. But the delivery (in Russian) of a first couple of serial production PD-14 engines (first batch numbers 16 engines) to Irkut corp to be installed at the serial MC-21 commercial aircraft. This is huge and I cannot emphasize enough how huge it is. It is a state-of-the-art engine which is very competitive with Western analogues, getting pretty close in terms of bypass ratio, while being better in fuel economy. EASA is due to certify it this year, while in Russia it already received the certificate of type. This is a new era in modern Russian commercial aerospace and implications are gigantic. 

No, Boeing-Airbus duopoly will not get crushed immediately but the fact that Russia already has a line of very competitive aircraft, from SSJ-100 to MC-21, to upcoming Il-96 with PD-35 for own market and that of former USSR should give some people a pause when framing global commercial aviation mostly in terms of this duopoly as a constant. But, as we all know, everything changes, all the time. 

An Interesting Coincidence?

It is a very peculiar coincidence. First, Yahoo publishes this:

That the U.S. and EU bolster their respective aerospace giants is a basic fact of the industry at this point. Yet the firms’ fierce rivalry and the enormous market share at stake means the U.S. and EU have challenged the other’s state-sponsored support—It’s fundamentally unfair! It’s market-distorting!—for well over a decade. Both sides’ claims have been at least partially upheld by the World Trade Organization, and those victories mean that each has the opportunity to hammer the other with tariffs. In other words: it’s payback time. But as the U.S. and EU trade threats on behalf of their industrial champions, an upstart aerospace firm could pose a threat to Boeing and Airbus’s long-term lock on the market. And it’s not wasting time worrying about subsidies; in fact, it’s welcoming state aid from an enthusiastic booster: China.

Of course down the article Yahoo makes a distinction: 

In fact, France has warned against any escalation of the trans-Atlantic subsidies argument, with Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire saying last week that it could “play into the hands” of a potentially significant competitor to both companies: the Commercial Aircraft Corp of China, or Comac. Comac, in partnership with Russia’s United Aircraft Corp, recently unveiled proposals for a long-haul widebody jet. It is already selling smaller models to Chinese carriers such as Chengdu Airlines, and trying to target some emerging markets such as Ghana with those regional planes. And all with the Chinese government’s support.

I have news for France's Finance Minister, who, obviously, having degree in literature from Sorbonne, before enrolling into Government Administration program, may not know it, but there are few very, how to put it politely, noticeable issues with this statement. Good that at least UAC and Russia were mentioned there. COMAC-919 is being created as primarily internal Chinese commercial aviation market filler for the nearest (10-30 years) future. COMAC-919 which still continues to have issues, is an outdated design and, apart from being a thoroughly "Western" aircraft it doesn't have...drum roll... indigenous competitive engine. It is simply not there, apart from few demonstrators which are not in the production and God knows when will be. 

And here is a Russian "coincidence: in Vzglyad with a telling title:

Китай ждет помощи от России в области авиации (China expects help from Russia in aviation field). 

Here is in English. 

Enter life-giving US sanctions on Russia. Only totally delusional people will continue to believe BS of sanctions in military and aerospace field against Russia as having something to do with politics--BS. It is all about Boeing and American Military-Industrial Complex. After all, none other than Russia's PM Dmitry Medvedev (whose role I am in the process of reassessing in a very positive direction now, after some new facts) today already reported Russia's military contracts portfolio worth $54.5 billion. Thankfully, by imposing sanction, such as those on composites by Hexcell, US, thinking that they damage MC-21 program, merely accelerated and to a breakneck speed localization of this aircraft, which will be a direct, unlike is the case of COMAC-919, competitor to both A-320neo and whatever the ill-fated B-737Max 8 will become.   

But that is the whole point, for the first time in history China was invited to become a co-organizer of the famed MAKS air exhibition, MAKS-2019. It will be at this massive salon that China will feature own progress but also the mock-up of  CR-929, Russian-Chinese wide-body airliner--the actual article, which together with MC-21 is honed to break up Boeing-Airbus duopoly. Behind all that one can see the shadow of not only majority of Russian home-made systems ranging from APU to avionics, and composites, which are already part of the newly constructed MC-21s, but of PD-14 engine which already received the certificate of type, while Russian-made APU received certificate from EASA. Russia ALREADY has certified PD-14 and the logical next step of PD-35 for wide-bodied intercontinental CR-929 and, wait a minute, IL-96, is being taken as I type this.

In the end, it is about more than just Boeing-Airbus saga, it is about those shady Russkies, hiding behind the tree in the ambush and waiting for their chance. So, let me reiterate--no own engine, no great aviation power. COMAC-919 will be powered undeniably by P&W or CFM. PD-14 is competitive and it already flies and is being produced, actually. Chinese AJ-1000A, will see. But in any case, Russia's return to commercial aircraft market will be noticed. Hell, it is already noticed, hence US sanctions--sanctity of Boeing, especially after this gigantic FUBAR with B-737 Max 8, must be well-guarded. Make no mistake, I am not sarcastic here, when I type this. The duopoly will be broken one way or another and behind it, apart from obvious advanced avionics, materials and design, all of which Russia has, is a massive Soviet/Russian school of engine manufacturing which was and is behind some of the most outstanding military aircraft in history. This experience is a key--that is why China paid billions to get her hands on Russian version of SU-35, that is why Egypt wants it, Indonesia signed the contract for 11 of them and that is why United States slaps economic sanctions on anything Russian--because it is too damn good and competitive. So simple, really.  

As per MAKS-2019. That is going to be a treat for aerospace obsessed and an eye candy. It always is.       

Russian-Chinese Wide Body Aircraft.

The title is not misleading and I am not being a Russian nationalist when putting Russia in this project in the first place. Today, Russia and China finalized the agreement for production of Russo-Chinese wide body commercial jet known as COMAC C929 which basically underscores some issues with Chinese aerospace. Yes, China recently conducted a maiden flight of her indigenous COMAC C919. It is an undeniably huge achievement for Chinese commercial aviation but, COMAC C919 is not an "answer" to Boeing, Airbus, nor it is an answer to MC-21, whose maiden flight is planned for early June this year. To start with, COMAC C919 has two major problems:

1. A very heavy wing;

2. Absence of indigenous engine. 

This makes C919 only good for China's internal  market. C929, however, is a totally different game. It gets into the B787 and A330 NEO markets directly both in China and, eventually, internationally. It will be doing this with traditionally superb Russian air-frame and PD-35 jet-engine, a larger, more powerful version of PD-14.  So, the stage is set for a big play in the most "hot" commercial market. Of course, others didn't sit idly:

The aircraft to be developed is expected to find the greater share of customers on the Chinese market. Later this year, General Electric and Rolls-Royce are expected to contest the right to provide the aircraft’s powerplant. The overall market is projected at between 800 and 1,000 aircraft, with deliveries starting in 2027.

Boy, talk about big money. C929, judging by a model, is a beautiful jet and it was Andrei Tupolev's dictum that: "Only beautiful planes fly beautifully".  

    

In related news, MC-21 did its rolling out and taxi runs and awaits the first flight.

   

And The Bird Is Out.....

And she is a beauty!!

  

This is a major development not only for Russia, with MC-21 already having 175 firm orders and 100 options from Russia's airlines, but also for global market. This jet is a direct and powerful competitor at the most voluminous market of mid-range aircraft with anything out there available today. In this roll out, MC-21, named after legendary Soviet/Russian aircraft designer Alexander Yakovlev (initially, the plane was known as Yak-242), is equipped with Pratt & Whitney engines--this configuration will be used for promotion in the international markets. Russian versions will be equipped with newest PD-14, which will be in series production by 2018. 

MC-21 is a remarkably thoroughly Russian-made plane with a very high percentage of localization--from avionics to composites, which constitute 40% of aircraft air frame, including all-composite wings. A lot could be said about all that, but what must be said is that it is a milestone and a massive comeback of Russian civil (commercial) aviation which about 10 years ago was all but "buried" by all kinds of "experts".                 

This aircraft has a massive export potential but for now it must be oriented towards Russian  market.

                  

   

Now, onto flight tests and certification. This aircraft is badly needed in Russia. As they say--Godspeed.