Chinese Are Practical People.

And when they see this flying yesterday from Irkutsk to Moscow non-stop for final certs:

Or this, also flying beautifully (ahem...):

Both being fully Russian aircraft which are powered by state-of-the-art PD-8, PD-14 and use Russian avionics, composites et al, Chinese know that PD-35 is coming and is not far away. You all remember how joint Russian-Chinese wide body aircraft CR-929 became C-929, because Russians didn't like how Chinese side viewed profits share. Now Chinese know that Russia fully recovered her commercial aircraft mojo and can do it all completely on her own. And suddenly, Russians are also practical and very delicate people who know that after all, it is Russia which is not only second (after the US) nation in the world capable totally out of own resources build state-of-the-art aircraft, but also the nation which tied all West's resources which otherwise would have been thrown against China. Comrade Xi is very sincere when stating today: 

ПЕКИН, 9 мая – РИА Новости. Россия и Китай должны быть настоящими друзьями, закаленными, как сталь, заявил председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин. "Необходимо поддерживать дружбу из поколения в поколение и быть настоящими друзьями, закаленными, как сталь", - приводит МИД КНР слова китайского лидера, сказанные во время встречи с журналистами после переговоров с президентом России Владимиром Путиным.

Translation: BEIJING, May 9 – RIA Novosti. Russia and China must be true friends, tempered like steel, said Chinese President Xi Jinping. "We must maintain friendship from generation to generation and be true friends, tempered like steel," the Chinese Foreign Ministry quotes the Chinese leader as saying during a meeting with journalists after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

And lo and behold:

Москва. 8 мая. ИНТЕРФАКС - Россия и Китай намерены продолжить сотрудничество по созданию дальнемагистрального широкофюзеляжного самолета, оно не прекращалось, заявил "Интерфаксу" первый вице-премьер РФ Денис Мантуров. Отвечая на вопрос о том, может ли РФ вернуться к кооперации с КНР по созданию широкофюзеляжного самолета, он сказал: "Может, мы его (сотрудничество - ИФ) и не прекращали".  ... В августе 2022 года руководство ОАК сообщило, что работа над CR929 продолжается, но с учетом последствий пандемии и введения против РФ санкций из-за конфликта на Украине формат участия в проекте придется "актуализировать". Мантуров тогда уточнял, что РФ будет участвовать в статусе поставщика агрегатов и компонентов для самолета, в мае прошлого года он подтверждал готовность России участвовать в проекте "на основе договора исполнителей". Вместе с тем, в феврале этого года совместное предприятие ООО "Инженерный центр программы СиАр929", учрежденное CRAIC в 2019 году под проект разработки дальнемагистрального пассажирского самолета CR929, подало заявление о ликвидации юрлица. Сейчас компания проходит соответствующие процедуры.

Translation: Moscow. May 8. INTERFAX - Russia and China intend to continue cooperation on the creation of a long-range wide-body aircraft; it has not stopped, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov told Interfax. Answering a question about whether Russia could return to cooperation with China on the creation of a wide-body aircraft, he said: "Maybe we have not stopped it (cooperation - IF)." ... In August 2022, the UAC management reported that work on the CR929 was continuing, but given the consequences of the pandemic and the introduction of sanctions against Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine, the format of participation in the project would have to be "updated." Manturov then clarified that Russia would participate as a supplier of units and components for the aircraft; in May last year, he confirmed Russia's readiness to participate in the project "based on a contractor agreement." At the same time, in February of this year, the joint venture Engineering Center for the CR929 Program LLC, established by CRAIC in 2019 for the project to develop the CR929 long-range passenger aircraft, filed an application for liquidation of the legal entity. The company is currently undergoing the relevant procedures.

Go figure, right? Well, there is nothing to figure here, actually. China knows that sanctions are coming and no amount of maneuvering can save both Comac-919 powered by US-French LEAP engines and, let alone, perspective "Chinese" C-929 which was planned as the aircraft (after letter "R" disappeared) which could be remotorized on the variety of the American and Rolls-Royce engines. And no, world-class competitive high bypass ratio Chinese engines are not coming any time soon. And here is this trick--any commercial aircraft Russia produces can be exported anywhere, because they are all Russian-manufactured. The only thing the US can do is to try blackmail potential buyers, but that's for other time to discuss--Boeing and Airbus have all reasons to sweat about MC-21. China, however, is pinned down now to its, however large, internal market and IS under the Sword of Damocles of not quite adequate POTUS who may, in the last ditch attempts to stop Chinese economic juggernaut, simply sanction jet engines and that will be it for Chinese attempt not only at competition abroad, but even domestically. So, enter PD-14 and PD-35 and Russian made subsystems from avionics to APU, to composites. Make your own conclusions. As I stated--Russians are very delicate people, apart from being very practical, like Chinese.

A Lesson In Real Realism.

I do follow Daniel Larison's writing periodically and just yesterday he posted a note about ABM Treaty, or rather its abrogation by the United States. In it he notes, correctly: 

The Folly of Leaving the ABM Treaty, 20 Years Later.Withdrawing from the ABM Treaty was an early Bush blunder, but it is one whose costs we continue to pay even now.

In his piece he refers to Mr. James Acton of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (LOL)))  who also laments, not unreasonably, this blunder with ABM Treaty. Acton writes:

It’s clear now that withdrawing was an epic mistake. The United States’ homeland missile defenses are porous; why else would Washington worry that North Korea is deploying intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)? Yet those defenses have succeeded in fueling arms races with Russia, whose hostility toward the United States is alive and well, and now with China too. This experience should prompt Washington to try to negotiate new limits on missile defenses, and it provides a cautionary tale about the very real costs of withdrawing from international agreements. Bush’s central contention was that the treaty “prevents us from developing effective defenses.” He was wrong on two counts. First, the treaty wasn’t the problem. Physics was. And engineering. And program management. And budgets. 

Obviously it is true but another (third) count Acton misses (not surprisingly for a person working for Carnegie Endowment) is the fact that neither Bush and his infested with neocons administration nor other administrations which followed had any clue what they were dealing with. Namely, Russia. Remarkably Larison IS on record about the utter ignorance of the US establishment, both political and what passes in the US for intellectual, on the account of the world outside. But if there is a country which represents a complete caricature in the American elitist mind it is Russia. The other count on which US establishment is ignorant is a real war (I doubt Mr. Acton understands it either) and, more generally, the nature of the conflict on the global scale. It is a cultural issue and most even smart people such as Mr. Acton do have serious difficulties penetrating the depth of it. 

Surely, Acton's background of a physicist makes him somewhat more predisposed to a rational thinking but here too we immediately are reminded that cultural ignorance doesn't spare even Ph.Ds in Theoretical Physics from Cambridge. Acton does admit that what Russia does technologically pretty much nullifies US efforts in ABM defenses but that is far as it goes. For starters, Acton lies, even if he doesn't understand it (which is even more damaging) and I return back to the first quote from him, read attentively:

Yet those defenses have succeeded in fueling arms races with Russia, whose hostility toward the United States is alive and well. 

Judging by the looks of Acton and, especially, the start of his activity as a scientist which falls on the second half of the first decade of 2000s, it is reasonable to assume that he met the collapse of the Soviet Union and immediate consequences of this collapse in 1990s being of a fairly tender age and having zero life experiences and self-awareness to assess times when Russia not only was NOT hostile to the US, but with the incredible energy tuned herself into a door mat for the United States up to the point of self-humiliation. Russians loved and admired the United States and then Yugoslavia happened. He doesn't remember that, I do. So, he lies following a classic BS taught in Anglo-world as a "history", hence his other quote from him.

The tens of billions of dollars that the United States has poured into homeland missile defense since 2001 have proved ineffective, and they have fueled arms races with China and Russia that have undermined U.S. security. President Joe Biden’s administration has sensibly identified arms control as a way to manage these growing dangers. A willingness to negotiate new limits on homeland missile defenses—in return for significant concessions from China and Russia—should be part of its approach.  

Acton does not recognize (he can't) that starting from late 1980s USSR (and then Russia) was surrendering one after another, in an act of unprecedented historically generosity, bordering on folly, her  strategic advantages. Not that the United States didn't benefit from those--the list is very long. And Russia learned her lesson. Mr. Acton, evidently, not, if he ever knew what that lesson was. I am sure he was never taught that in Cambridge--for that you need to attend a serious higher military educational facility. That is why what is highlighted in yellow is preposterous and could be only the product of a person with a white board life experiences and zero foreign policy, military and geopolitical acumen. 

                     LESSON IN REALISM FOR JAMES ACTON:

No normal nation, especially Russia after her experiences with what Pat Buchanan described as:

The Russian people, having extended a hand in friendship and seen it slapped away, cheered the ouster of the accommodating Boris Yeltsin and the arrival of an autocratic strong man who would make Russia respected again. We ourselves prepared the path for Vladimir Putin. 

Would trade any of her growing military-technological advantage over the United States, especially when the United Sates has zero on offer. Not because the US is holding back, but because there is nothing of value, bar general geopolitical favors, to offer in exchange. Because you don't exchange 3M22 Zircon for F-35, you do not trade S-550 or A-235 Nudol for THAAD or AEGIS ashore. Would Acton trade his 2020 Ferrari Pista Coupe (Russians, and other Slavs here, you keep your mouths shut;)) for Chevrolet Citation without cash? Would he trade his Ph.D in Theoretical Physics from Cambridge for AA in creative writing from local community college? The answer seems obvious. Geopolitics is not a charity. But Acton's arrogance and ignorance of the modern history of the last 40 years shows. What can possibly the United States offer to Russia and her people, who observe the American collapse in real time and whose only concern is not to allow the United States and its lap dogs unleash the war in a desperate attempt to hold on to elusive power for a little bit longer. 

Russia's is not trading her military edge, she is using it to keep the combined West within limits until it either sorts itself out or collapses into oblivion but without taking the rest of the humanity with it. But to understand that, one has to know Russia and her history, especially starting from 1812. It is now too late to cry about the fate of ABM Treaty, what is done--is done. Time to face consequences--a concept modern Western elites will learn soon. In fact, the process has already started. Ah yes, I warned 8 years ago that the time to negotiate is now until it is too late and the time of the ultimatums, not concessions, comes. Well, Mr. Acton, that time has arrived and it is not the West which issues them. Because any treaty with the West and its leader, the United States, is not worth the paper it is written on. 

The Duran Interview.

As I stated a couple days ago: There will be a lot of back-and-forth on this issue in coming days. It started, and Alex Christoforu and Alexander Mercouris discuss in no non-sense manner the meaning of the launch of the Power of Siberia. It is an excellent 35 minutes long discussion (listen to the very end) and it contributes greatly to an understanding of geopolitical dynamics. 

Sadly, I cannot post here another interview, it is strictly in Russian with no subs, with a man whose change in strategic outlook in the last year or so is simply breathtaking from almost defeatism to now asserting Russia as a major power pole globally. I am talking about Captain 1st Rank (Ret.) Konstantin Sivkov, who was known in Russian internet as a man with grim views on Russia. Now he sings as a bird. That's a symptom, a positive one. But in The Duran's interview around 30th minute I finally heard from Mercouris the word which was waiting to be said--a synergy. This, plus, of course, pointing out that Obama and his cabal fvcked it up so badly with Russia that it will be viewed as one of the most catastrophic policies for the West in history. But then again, what do you expect from mediocrities with degrees in law. So, enjoy.  

Geopolitics Of Pipes.

As was announced earlier, Power of Siberia was switched on today. 

And, without being sappy sentimental, it is, indeed, a historic moment since solidifies Russian-Chinese alliance with the blood of modern geopolitics--energy. Initially, Power of Siberia will pump modest volumes of natural gas but they will grow each month. China will need more, much more. Even English language propaganda outlets such as Associated Press had to note a true meaning of this pipeline. 

BEIJING (AP) — China and Russia launched on Monday a gas pipeline that is more than 6,000 kilometers (3,750 miles) long, an outcome of their long-planned energy partnership. As its relationships with Europe and the United States have grown more volatile, Russia is looking to bring its vast natural gas resources to the east. China is the world’s largest energy consumer and needs new supply sources to meet domestic demand. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin inaugurated the pipeline — dubbed the “Power of Siberia” — through a joint video conference. “This step takes Russia-China energy cooperation to a whole new level and brings us closer to achieving the goal set together with Chinese President Xi Jinping of extending bilateral trade turnover to $200 billion in 2024,” Putin said. The pipeline bolsters the nations’ ties while China is embroiled in a trade dispute with the U.S. It stems from a $400 billion deal signed in 2014 by Russian state energy giant Gazprom, which agreed to deliver 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually to China National Petroleum Corp for the next 30 years. Gazprom built the Russian side of the pipeline, which runs from new Siberian gas fields to the Chinese border.

Remarkable in this commitment to get to $200 billion volume of trade, which now seems a totally achievable goal by 2024. It also makes it clear that with Power of Siberia operational and more similar projects in the pipeline (ahem), Russia's position vis-a-vis Europe re: gas supplies improves dramatically. I am sure Kiev is celebrating this event joyfully (/sarc). Nothing personal, just business, which also makes Russia's shift to Asia obvious. There will be a lot of back-and-forth on this issue in coming days, but, hopefully, there will be enough cool heads who will look into the issue of power balance WITHIN Russian-Chinese geopolitical arrangement, to finally dispel all this contrived BS about "junior-senior partner" dichotomy and will concentrate on actual tangibles which drive Russian-Chinese relations and, with that, world's power balance. Who would have thought 15 years ago that the world will move the way Russia and China move.  

I Seldom Use Poetry.

But Alexander Blok's magnificent 1918 The Scythians, being one of the most stunning in its prescience geopolitical poems of all time, I think, should be posted here. For those who want to see how Russian poetry must be recited (in Russian)--one can enjoy the "music", the sound and rhyme of it here, even if you don't know Russian:

But here is the best English version of it. 101 years on--it reads like it was written yesterday. 

Millions are you – and hosts, yea hosts, are we,
And we shall fight if war you want, take heed.
Yes, we are Scythians – leafs of the Asian tree,
Our slanted eyes are bright aglow with greed.

Ages for you, for us the briefest space,
We raised the shield up as your humble lieges
To shelter you, the European race
From the Mongolians’ savage raid and sieges.

Ages, yea ages, did your forges’ thunder
Drown even avalanches’ roar.
Quakes rent Messina and Lisbon asunder –
To you this was a distant tale – no more.

Eastwards you cast your eyes for many hundred years,
Greedy for our precious stones and ore,
And longing for the time when with a leer
You’d yell an order and the guns would roar.

This time is now. Woe beats its wings
And every adds more humiliation
Until the day arrives which brings
An end to placid life in utter spoliation.

You, the old world, now rushing to perdition,
Yet strolling languidly to lethal brinks,
Yours is the ancient Oedipean mission
To seek to solve the riddles of a sphinx.

The sphinx is Russia, sad and yet elated,
Stained with dark blood, with grief prostrate,
For you with longing she has looked and waited,
Replete with ardent love and ardent hate.

Yet how will ever you perceive
That, as we love, as lovingly we yearn,
Our love is neither comfort nor relief
But like a fire will destroy and burn.

We love cold figures’ hot illumination,
The gift of supernatural vision,
We like the Gallic wit’s mordant sensation
And dark Teutonic indecision.

We know it all: in Paris hell’s dark street,
In Venice bright and sunlit colonnades,
The lemon blossoms’ scent so heavy, yet so sweet,
And in Cologne a shadowy arcade.

We love the flavour and the smell of meat,
The slaughterhouses’ pungent reek.
Why blame us then if in the heat
Of our embrace your bones begin to creak.

We saddle horses wild and shy,
As in the fields so playfully they swerve.
Though they be stubborn, yet we press their thigh
Until they willingly and meekly serve.

Join us! From horror and from strife
Turn to the peace of our embrace.
There is still time. Keep in its sheath your knife.
Comrades, we will be brothers to your race.

Say no – and we are none the worse.
We, too, can utter pledges that are vain.
But ages, ages will you bear the curse
Of our sons’ distant offspring racked with pain.

Our forests’ dark depths shall we open wide
To you, the men of Europe’s comely race,
And unmoved shall we stand aside,
An ugly grin on our Asian face.

Advance, advance to Ural’s crest,
We offer you a battleground so neat
Where your machines of steel in serried ranks abreast
With the Mongolian savage horde will meet.

But we shall keep aloof from strife,
No longer be your shield from hostile arrow,
We shall just watch the mortal strife
With our slanting eyes so cold and narrow.

Unmoved shall we remain when Hunnish forces
The corpses’ pockets rake for plunder,
Set town afire, to altars tie their horses,
Burn our white brothers’ bodies torn asunder.

To the old world goes out our last appeal:
To work and peace invite our warming fires.
Come to our hearth, join our festive meal.
Called by the strings of our Barbarian lyres.

30 January 1918