Chinese Are Practical People.

And when they see this flying yesterday from Irkutsk to Moscow non-stop for final certs:

Or this, also flying beautifully (ahem...):

Both being fully Russian aircraft which are powered by state-of-the-art PD-8, PD-14 and use Russian avionics, composites et al, Chinese know that PD-35 is coming and is not far away. You all remember how joint Russian-Chinese wide body aircraft CR-929 became C-929, because Russians didn't like how Chinese side viewed profits share. Now Chinese know that Russia fully recovered her commercial aircraft mojo and can do it all completely on her own. And suddenly, Russians are also practical and very delicate people who know that after all, it is Russia which is not only second (after the US) nation in the world capable totally out of own resources build state-of-the-art aircraft, but also the nation which tied all West's resources which otherwise would have been thrown against China. Comrade Xi is very sincere when stating today: 

ПЕКИН, 9 мая – РИА Новости. Россия и Китай должны быть настоящими друзьями, закаленными, как сталь, заявил председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин. "Необходимо поддерживать дружбу из поколения в поколение и быть настоящими друзьями, закаленными, как сталь", - приводит МИД КНР слова китайского лидера, сказанные во время встречи с журналистами после переговоров с президентом России Владимиром Путиным.

Translation: BEIJING, May 9 – RIA Novosti. Russia and China must be true friends, tempered like steel, said Chinese President Xi Jinping. "We must maintain friendship from generation to generation and be true friends, tempered like steel," the Chinese Foreign Ministry quotes the Chinese leader as saying during a meeting with journalists after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

And lo and behold:

Москва. 8 мая. ИНТЕРФАКС - Россия и Китай намерены продолжить сотрудничество по созданию дальнемагистрального широкофюзеляжного самолета, оно не прекращалось, заявил "Интерфаксу" первый вице-премьер РФ Денис Мантуров. Отвечая на вопрос о том, может ли РФ вернуться к кооперации с КНР по созданию широкофюзеляжного самолета, он сказал: "Может, мы его (сотрудничество - ИФ) и не прекращали".  ... В августе 2022 года руководство ОАК сообщило, что работа над CR929 продолжается, но с учетом последствий пандемии и введения против РФ санкций из-за конфликта на Украине формат участия в проекте придется "актуализировать". Мантуров тогда уточнял, что РФ будет участвовать в статусе поставщика агрегатов и компонентов для самолета, в мае прошлого года он подтверждал готовность России участвовать в проекте "на основе договора исполнителей". Вместе с тем, в феврале этого года совместное предприятие ООО "Инженерный центр программы СиАр929", учрежденное CRAIC в 2019 году под проект разработки дальнемагистрального пассажирского самолета CR929, подало заявление о ликвидации юрлица. Сейчас компания проходит соответствующие процедуры.

Translation: Moscow. May 8. INTERFAX - Russia and China intend to continue cooperation on the creation of a long-range wide-body aircraft; it has not stopped, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov told Interfax. Answering a question about whether Russia could return to cooperation with China on the creation of a wide-body aircraft, he said: "Maybe we have not stopped it (cooperation - IF)." ... In August 2022, the UAC management reported that work on the CR929 was continuing, but given the consequences of the pandemic and the introduction of sanctions against Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine, the format of participation in the project would have to be "updated." Manturov then clarified that Russia would participate as a supplier of units and components for the aircraft; in May last year, he confirmed Russia's readiness to participate in the project "based on a contractor agreement." At the same time, in February of this year, the joint venture Engineering Center for the CR929 Program LLC, established by CRAIC in 2019 for the project to develop the CR929 long-range passenger aircraft, filed an application for liquidation of the legal entity. The company is currently undergoing the relevant procedures.

Go figure, right? Well, there is nothing to figure here, actually. China knows that sanctions are coming and no amount of maneuvering can save both Comac-919 powered by US-French LEAP engines and, let alone, perspective "Chinese" C-929 which was planned as the aircraft (after letter "R" disappeared) which could be remotorized on the variety of the American and Rolls-Royce engines. And no, world-class competitive high bypass ratio Chinese engines are not coming any time soon. And here is this trick--any commercial aircraft Russia produces can be exported anywhere, because they are all Russian-manufactured. The only thing the US can do is to try blackmail potential buyers, but that's for other time to discuss--Boeing and Airbus have all reasons to sweat about MC-21. China, however, is pinned down now to its, however large, internal market and IS under the Sword of Damocles of not quite adequate POTUS who may, in the last ditch attempts to stop Chinese economic juggernaut, simply sanction jet engines and that will be it for Chinese attempt not only at competition abroad, but even domestically. So, enter PD-14 and PD-35 and Russian made subsystems from avionics to APU, to composites. Make your own conclusions. As I stated--Russians are very delicate people, apart from being very practical, like Chinese.

It Is The Devil You Know--II.

Let's continue a bit of rationalization and reasoning which we started in the previous post with the same title  and get back to our global commercial airspace matters. Here is the MC-21 cockpit:

here is more:

This is largely Honeywell avionics and Honeywell is extremely proud to be a part of MC-21 program as main avionics and some other aggregates provider. For now. Honeywell is proud to be part of Chinese aviation too. For now.

This is how MC-21 or, for that matter, any other commercial aircraft flies. Straight and slow.

For this kind of flying commercial aircraft need all kinds of computerized on-board systems which control all mechanics and engines, which also provide monitoring and representation of the state of on-board systems visually. They also require radar, collision avoidance system, altimeters, navigation (usually inertial navigational complex with various correction systems, GPS, GLONASS Et all)  and the list goes on and on this is what Honeywell, plus some Israeli and French avionics companies pride themselves on doing it better than anyone in the world. When speaking about Russian commercial aircraft, however, one should be fully aware of the presence of Western avionics and some other systems not because Russians are so dumb and can not make their own, but primarily because having Western "partners" helps the process of certification and of reaching foreign markets. After all, there is also a reasonable want of many potential customers to deal with avionics, aggregates' and engine packages they got used to. But let us continue:

Here is a standard cockpit of SU-35:

 here is more:

This, meanwhile, are SU-35 (and SU-30SM) engines, or rather engine exhausts:

And this is how this damn aircraft flies:

If you want to get the point without watching the whole thing, get to 6:30 mark and try not to drop your jaw to the floor. Avionics of SU-35 presented in the photos above is 100% Russian-made and overwhelmingly, including elemental base, including processors, Russian-designed and produced. So now, let's cut to the chase. Not only modern combat aircraft such as SU-35 can do any commercial aircraft type flying easily (well, without passengers, of course) but they fly in such a way and carry an astonishing array of cutting edge sensors and weapons, that any commercial aircraft avionics and what it can do compares to SU-35 avionics as a horse and buggy compares to the top of the line Ford truck. In other words, try to develop AI based software and then realize it in own produced hardware for all-aspect thrust-vectoring engines. I can tell you immediately, it is much harder than producing pretty much unified and fairly boring avionics package for commercial aircraft. 

Here we are coming to this very important juncture at which we have to ask this straight-forward question: if KRET (part of Rostec mammoth corporation) is capable to make avionics which makes SU-35 fly like an alien spaceship while simultaneously using fully integrated sensor and weapons suite which commercial pilots (unless they are former military) have no grasp of, isn't it reasonable to assume that, say, KRET and UAC will have no serious problems removing US (or Western) made avionics from Russian made aircraft, together with 100% Russian designed and made engines, thus removing them from the sanctions which are coming? What sanctions you may ask? Well, the US has the right to prohibit any sales of aircraft to anywhere if they contain more than 10% of US-made parts. And this is the next step Trump Administration will take against Russian airspace.  

Russian know it. But once you remove P&W engines and Western avionics and aggregates from MC-21 (and, accidentally, SSJ-100) you get almost fully Russian-made aircraft which will not be affected by sanctions, at least not this way. And here is the trick. Look at PD-14--not a single foreign piece in it. In fact, this engine pushes boundaries of what is possible and promises enormous savings for customers. Some say as high as 17% over any Western analogue. Well, even if it is 10%--it is gigantic in commercial aviation terms. US plane makers know it. Moreover, PD-14 already launched another mini-revolution of sorts in commercial engines design (is it possible that it is somehow connected to Russian combat aviation, wink-wink) and materials. So, make your own conclusion if the makers of avionics and aggregates for SU-35 or SU-57 will be able to replace western parts on commercial jets? I guess it is always harder coming up in complexity than down and that is your answer. But perspective is even more threatening for the end of the next decade once PD-35 and CR-929 go on-line. 

If Russian commercial aviation market is large--its loss for Western commercial aircraft manufacturers is painful but survivable, the loss of Chinese market, on the other hand, talk about tectonic shift in commercial aviation and that is what CR-929 will do. Well, that plus I have some difficulty believing that all issues with COMAC 919 will be solved in timely manner (they will be solved eventually) but one way or another it is not real competitor to MC-21, A-320 Neo or B-373 Max 8. So, it's impact will be limited. The reason? China does not have modern engine, Russia does and, in fact, it is being certified as I type this. So, the trend is being set and, considering the fact that DJT doesn't control his own government, there is very little necessity of any kind of cooperation, especially with upcoming November sanctions and, I don't think, Putin really believes Trump anyway. But it was stated many times before--sanctions are good for Russia, well, except for the last vestiges of some so called liberal (in reality criminal) and so called "business" (mostly money making and laundering) circles of Russia who, as I said many times before, should worship Putin who is the only obstacle between this public and lamp posts on which they might be hanged the minute he steps down if they trespass. But that is a separate topic altogether. 

To Be Continued...