Wednesday, November 30, 2022

About Timing...

My timing. Just yesterday I spoke about the necessity to look at the things that really matter on the global stage and that REAL news was Russia's "abrupt" withdrawal from START consultations. I also stressed, that technically Russia doesn't need START mainly due to these two major reasons (there are some other less important reasons too):

1. Technologically in terms of strategic arms, or arms having a capacity to provide a strategic effect, while not being strategic in de jure sense, Russia is so ahead of the United States that...

2. The United States doesn't have both technological and, most importantly, industrial wherewithal to close the gap, which is widening and makes namely the United States a party in a position of needing this treaty desperately. 

Russia has all necessary data on the state of the US nuclear deterrent and its ABM, very grossly exaggerated, capability and knows that she loses nothing if START is stalled, for a while at least. In the end, the US is a non-agreement capable party and any treaty with the US is not worth the paper such a treaty is signed on. takes two to tango. 

Russia sees no possibility of resuming talks with Washington on the cornerstone New START arms control treaty while the US continues to arm Ukraine, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Wednesday. Speaking in a live interview on radio Sputnik, Maria Zakharova said: “The US intends to supply even more weapons to the conflict region, in which the Russian Federation is directly involved. That is, they will supply all these weapons, they will encourage the Kiev regime to cause even more bloodshed, they will allocate money for extremist activities that are carried out under the auspices of these delusional people [in the Ukrainian presidency], and we will sit with them at the same table and discuss issues of mutual security with them, including those in their interest?" The spokeswoman stressed that Moscow values the New START agreement, as it serves the best interests of both Russia and the US, adding that the necessary conditions must be met before talks can be resumed.

State Department, evidently, never knew--not surprising--that others can play the game too, and it is going to hurt like hell. Recall, that many, yours truly included, pointed out to the fact that the MAD eventually will "dissipate" for a single reason that the US lag in anti-missile technology both qualitatively and quantitatively may, and most likely, will become so massive that the US deterrent my lose a lot of its credibility, which is the foundation of MAD. It was the US, not Russia, who abrogated ABM Treaty--after that the US discovered that it is nowhere near the ABM and anti-hypersonic capabilities of such systems as S-500 or A-235 Nudol, among other new physical principles weapons such as laser Peresvet and who knows what else. 

The death of INF Treaty saw the US discovering that its land-attack capability is nowhere near Russian one, especially in terms of ranges and velocities. 10,000 km range X-101s and 4,500 range 3M14M Kalibr are already here. And then, of course, there is this hypersonic arsenal. So, one can easily recognize the pattern of the US assuming wrongly and then finding itself in a strategic bind. I can only imagine how many in State Department and Pentagon salivate from any prospect of getting any close quarters intel on such things as RS-28 Sarmat or Poseidon. The only thing which can allow the US side to gain this legally is the regime of inspections for START. But here we are today--no inspections, only quid pro quo.  If not, then--too bad... for the US. Zakharova merely confirmed it today. Is there something like "S-700", of which late Zhirinovsky joked, in works in Russia? You can bet your ass on that.  

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