Some Thoughts On Russian "Opposition".

I deliberately used "opposition" term, instead of more traditional "liberals", for a reason--at this stage I see less and less difference between most of the politico-ideological fringes in Russia be that "liberals", self-proclaimed "nationalists" or, even, some "communists" from, what Alexander Rogers astutely termed as CPRF (Commercial Party of Russian Federation--you know, "communists"). There is very little difference between these people and media which serve them. Practically all of them are hysterical and, as was noted not for once (this relates to any media), are populated by office plankton which fancies themselves "journalists". This is an eclectic public which is badly educated and has no serious professional or human skills but, because they have degrees in "journalism", "economics", sociology, what have you, they think that they know things. They don't in regards to any field which actually requires serious expertise, forget serious system analysis.

As I stated not for once--modern world became so complex that ability to use iPhone or, even, write some app counts for nothing where systematic education and ability to grasp complex reality is required. Person with degree in the so called "journalism" does not have cognitive apparatus for passing judgements on even basic technological and industrial topics, forget military ones--that is a wowser. Such a person surely will not be able to write Manufacturing Plan (say for leading edge of the wing of aircraft), nor will.... nah...whom am I kidding here--most of them don't know shit from shinola. Add here, usually, egos larger than cathedrals, arrogance and organic disagreement with policies (usually from liberal, that is libertarian, perspective--that is, it is all about me, me, me) no matter how good or bad those policies are and you get this BS from known mouth-piece of Western "business circles" rag Kommersant which drops the "news" (5 days ago) about Russian MC-21 narrow body aircraft being under threat because the West stopped providing composite materials for MC-21's "black", that is fully composite carbon fiber, wing (in Russian).  

The fact that trio of losers who wrote (or were ordered to) this piece forgot to mention that such a "threat" was realized already in 2015 and that there was a reason that UAC (United Aircraft Corporation) responded to publication and to Kommersant's "sources" which were used for writing this load of crap, as totally contrived, seemed not to bother them. Of course, they know better, because they are...journalists. But, as you may have guessed already, in the world of liberal (and so called "patriotic") hamsters this publication created yet another shitstorm about "Putin Vse Slil" (Putin Flushed Everything Down). And here we come to the key issue--it is not surprising that it is very difficult to find bio (or basic CVs) info on all those liberal (and "patriotic") journos. Who would want to flaunt their incompetence. But hear me out. It was this same Kommersant which 8 month ago, in April 2018, started spreading not only fake (I called it immediately, in Russian) but deliberately provocative info about allegedly 7 Russian aircraft destroyed at air-base Khmeimim in Syria. Well, Kommersant was spreading this BS based, yet again, on its "sources" in MoD. Boy, was there a revelation when their "source" turned out to be nothing more than amateur Roman Saponkov who decided to become a freelance "hero-reporter" and who, most likely himself was BSed by his Syrian "sources" of the level of janitor in the convenience store near Khmeimim most likely. 

Inevitably the BS was utterly debunked with a single SU-24 having its empennage slightly damaged by a shrapnel--damaged parts were replaced within 24 hours and the aircraft continued to fly combat missions. Saponkov doubled down on his BS and, basically, should be treated as a pathological liar and a man with zero military experiences. But Kommersant really DOES know what it is doing and for WHOSE benefit it is constantly spreading all kinds of BS. After shistorm created by this rag subsided somewhat and, as usual, all premise of this shitstorm turned out to be mostly a disinformation, specialists started talking. For starters they reminded these panic-mongers that already in 2015 things were rolling:
Russia aims to regain its leadership in the carbon fiber sector and the production of strong, lightweight composite materials used in construction and industry.   
So, basically for people who spread such a BS it is beyond their grasp that after Match 1, 2018 Putin's speech to Federal Assembly they should have made a note to themselves that they know very little. But significance of that speech was not in new weapons, by now even Russian "opposition", while cringing, already knows inside that they are fools. No, the significance of Kinzhals, Zircons, Avangards, what have you is in the fact that such missiles use large percentage of carbon fiber and other composite materials in their assembly. So, one is forced to ask then--can the nation which develops such breakthrough materials which allow weapon systems to remain under control and functional while flying in the cloud of a hot plasma, develop a carbon fiber material for a wing of a commercial aircraft? Well, for people with even an iota of common sense the answer seems obvious. This is not to speak of the fact that Kommersnat's BS was already debunked. But now recall this, recent "vbros" (throw in of fake info). Another BS spread, gleefully by Russian "opposition" media.

Of  course, this too was debunked, but couple days ago, Russia, as if taunting this bunch of Russian urban know-it-all office plankton, announced that Concern Tehnodynamica completed trials of fire protection and oxygen systems for both SSJ-100 and MC-21 (in Russian) thus continuing to increase the share of the domestic parts in both aircraft to such a degree that no "sanctions" will matter. But my issue is not with Russian industry, which continues to produce state-of-the-art technology, both military and civilian, totally out of own resources but with this extremely narrow circle of pretentious "market analysts", merchandisers, marketing specialists and holders of other degrees in recognition of a good Scotch from the bad one and Ph.Ds in the brands of smartphones, designer clothing and jewelry. Do they even feel (I don't think they have brains to grasp) this sense of own uselessness other than in the fields no serious person cares about? I give them this, though, they are useful tools (and many of them subsist on foreign grants and stipends) and idiots in a titanic war combined West, under American guidance, unleashed on Russia and Russian people. But that is the point--these are precisely the people who can produce nothing of value, beneficial to either own nation, or humanity and who can only sell ignorance and disinformation in the world in which their "reporting" is nothing more than trash thrown out daily on a dumpster where it truly belongs.    

UPDATE: Ah, lovely. Today 01/16/19 (or 16/01/19 for Europeans) the General Director of Aerocomposit company, Anatoly Gaidansy, in his interview to popular weekly Arguments and Facts (AiF) humiliates and wipes the floor with incompetent BSers from Kommersant (in Russian), while assessing their BS as: 

                      Это полнейшая техническая безграмотность

Translation: this is a complete technical illiteracy. 

My question is to Gaidansky: Anatoly, what did you expect from those losers from this liberal cabal in Moscow, the knowledge of composite structures and how their specifications are formed and applied? I am sure those advanced girls and boys from Kommersant and other "market" publications can tell us all a lot about AS9100, ah..well. In late Soviet times, during Gorbachev's disaster, the only use their newspapers would be good for as a toilet paper only. In Stalin's times they would be...well, they wouldn't be. 

Enclosed Technological Cycle.

I write about them all the time. Why is the US a superpower in aerospace? Obvious--US can produce aircraft from literally a scratch. US can produce all required materials, all required parts, fuselage, avionics, engines, APU... Ah, yes, APUs--those proverbial Auxiliary Power Units which no modern aircraft can exist without today. Those units do it all while aircraft engines are silent--they keep engines warm, they run all on-board systems, from air conditioners to lights, in the end--they start main engines. APU is an extremely important, crucial aircraft system. Well, here is the news (in Russian), Russians certified own APU TA18-100 by EASA. EASA is European Aviation Safety Agency which issues certificates of type of aviation systems and grants permission to operate both aircraft and systems in EU. 

This seemingly not important fact is actually huge because it clears road to Russian commercial aircraft such as MC-21 and SSJ-100 to a complete Russification. Yes, yes--that means removing many American parts and substituting them with Russian-made, thus opening the market not only for Europe, but to...Iran and whomever else the US will put under sanctions. And this is not all, apart from certification of excellent PD-14 which has ZERO foreign components. In related news, in Samara at Aviaagregat (in Russian) they already manufacturing all required pipes for SSJ-100s. Now wait what KRET will come up with in terms of avionics and voila', 90+% Russian-made MC-21 and SSJ-100s are ready to be delivered to anyone, US sanctions or no sanctions. Didn't I tell you (and not me alone) that sanctions are good for Russia? And here I have to recall recent talk by some of Russia's media figures who almost ranted (fully justifiably) about sanctions. I will add here my take too: in the beginning of sanctions and spreading of the myth of Russian "economy left in tatters", I recall many economic "experts" from all kinds of BS organizations and rags, such as WSJ, making smart faces on TV telling that Russia depends on Western extraction technology, aircraft technology, some other technology. I have one question for them: morons, do you understand that the country which builds Borey-class SSBNs or flies into space will have no fvcking difficulty creating some drilling pump or materials for drills or any other equipment. The only thing Russia needed was time. Here are the results. 

Will Russian commercial aircraft be competitive on the international markets? Hell, yes, especially secondary markets such as Iran, Iraq, many African nations, Indonesia etc. Well, look for yourself what US sanctions here. All hi tech, especially many in aviation related fields (not only, of course). So, we may yet witness some amazing moves at commercial aircraft market and there will be a lot of sabotage, blackmailing and arms twisting, such as with Indonesia who wanted to buy SU-35s. Nothing personal--just business.     

You Reap What You Sow.

Saudi Arabia's Asharq Al-Awsat reports today (Google does a decent job translating from Arabic):

وأكدت المصادر أن إسرائيل نفذت فقط غارتين جويتين على سوريا بعد تلك الحادثة، بتنسيق مع القوات الروسية. وفي كل مرة، كان الروس يبدون تبرمهم من هذا النوع من العمليات. والمعروف أن حكومة بنيامين نتنياهو فشلت حتى الآن في تسوية الخلافات مع موسكو. فالرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين صد مطالب نتنياهو للقائه على الأراضي الروسية طيلة الشهرين الفائتين. وعندما وافق على لقاء نتنياهو في باريس، الأسبوع الماضي، خلال حفل عشاء ضمن الاحتفالات بذكرى مائة سنة على الحرب العالمية الأولى، أصر على أن يكون اللقاء قصيراً (ربع ساعة) ومقتضباً، وذلك بعد جهود إسرائيلية وأميركية كثيرة مع موسكو. ومع أن نتنياهو اعتبره لقاءً مهماً ومفيداً، فإن بوتين اعتبره لقاءً عابراً، مؤكداً أنه من غير المرجح أن يلتقي معه مرة أخرى في المستقبل المنظور. وتبين من تقرير داخلي في المؤسسة الأمنية في تل أبيب أن «روسيا أوضحت لإسرائيل بطرق مختلفة أن الوضع الذي كان قائماً في السابق قد انتهى، لأن عمليات تل أبيب في سوريا تضر بمشروع موسكو الأساسي في المنطقة، أي استعادة الحكومة السورية سيطرتها على معظم أراضي البلاد، لضمان مصالح روسيا الاقتصادية والأمنية في سوريا. وهي تستغل حادثة الطائرة بكل قسوة لتحقيق أهدافها». وأكد التقرير أن الجانب الروسي بدأ يستخدم لهجة صارمة، تتسم بعض الأحيان بفظاظة، في اتصالات التنسيق مع العسكريين الإسرائيليين عبر ما يسمى «الخط الساخن»، الخاص بمنع وقوع الحوادث 

Translation: The sources confirmed that Israel carried out only two air raids on Syria after that incident, in coordination with Russian forces. Each time, the Russians began to sign these kinds of operations. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu has so far failed to settle differences with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin blocked Netanyahu's demands to meet him on Russian territory for the past two months. When he agreed to meet with Netanyahu in Paris last week at a gala dinner marking the 100th anniversary of the First World War, he insisted that the meeting should be short (one-quarter of an hour) and brief, following many Israeli and American efforts with Moscow. Although Netanyahu considered it an important and useful meeting, Putin considered it a passing meeting, asserting that he is unlikely to meet with him again in the foreseeable future. "Russia has made it clear to Israel in different ways that the situation that existed in the past is over, because the Tel Aviv operations in Syria are harming Moscow's basic project in the region, that is, the restoration of the Syrian government's control over most of the country's territory, To ensure Russia's economic and security interests in Syria. It is taking advantage of the aircraft incident with all its cruelty to achieve its goals. " The report said that the Russian side began to use a strict tone, sometimes crude, in coordination contacts with the Israeli military through the so-called hotline, the prevention of accidents in Syria, between the parties.

This report comes on the heels of my publisher sending me yesterday a link to Bernhard's (MOA) excellent piece on Israel, which I read by then anyway. But Asharq Al-Awsat reports also on a significant increase of the sorties by Russian VKS' aircraft in Syrian air space and all this fits perfectly the pattern which I (well, forgive me, but can I feed my ego at least once in a while?) predicted within hours of IL-20s tragedy. This brings up this ever important issue (and I will soon resume my Russia's Non-Jewish History series of posts) of true influence of alleged Jewish (Israeli) lobby on Russia. As I already stated not for once, Russia's foreign and defense policies are immune to any kind of influences which contradict Russia's crucial national interests. Russia is interested in stable and secure Israel but not at the expense of own strategic interests. For sure, Israel has her own legitimate security concerns but the main question is what is the extent of this legitimacy? I don't know, I am not a specialist in the region, but the issue of new settlements and, inevitably, of Golan Heights will come up once Syria recovers most of her territory and will start in earnest postbellum restoration. 

Theoretically, Russia can guarantee Israel's survival but it will come with a lofty price tag. Obviously, for Israeli and American Likudniks (neocons, Israeli-firsters, what have you), who got used to kick US Congress around any way they want, such a disposition where they have to actually listen and not talk is huge humiliation, but, I hope, even most delusional Zionists both within Israel and US power structures, must recognize that Russia does have many strategic options, they--don't. As Asharq Al-Awsat reports:

 كشفت مصادر سياسية في تل أبيب أن القيادة العسكرية الإسرائيلية تبدي قلقاً من فشل القيادة السياسية في تسوية الأزمة القائمة مع روسيا في الشهرين الفائتين، منذ سقوط طائرة التجسس «إيل - 20» في 17 سبتمبر (أيلول) الماضي. وتقول إن استمرار هذه الأزمة يتسبب في تناقض مصالح مع روسيا، وبات يضيق على إسرائيل في خياراتها القتالية ضد الوجود الإيراني في سوريا، وحتى ضد نشاط «حزب الله» في لبنان.

Translation: Political sources in Tel Aviv revealed that the Israeli military leadership is concerned about the failure of the political leadership to resolve the crisis with Russia in the past two months, since the fall of the spy plane "El - 20" on 17 September. She says that the continuation of this crisis is causing a conflict of interests with Russia, and is narrowing Israel's choice of combat against the Iranian presence in Syria, and even against the activity of "Hezbollah" in Lebanon. 

The name of the "crisis", of course, are two (or three--who knows how many) battalions of S-300PMU2 Favorit and the evolution of this whole situation could serve as a classic example of the  Force In Being translating into tangible (geo)political results. Russia really wanted to work with Israel but Israel, obviously, grossly overestimated own capabilities, especially against the background of gross underestimation  of Russian ones--a scenario replayed constantly in the US which still remains enamored with Israel's military "achievements" against traditionally weak Arab military and para-military formations. Things are  changing, though. I will go out on a limb here and speculate that Syrian Arab Army's prestige among Arabs is extremely high, as is prestige of Hafez al-Assad, who defied Israel, international Jihad, Turkey and NATO. Syria IS emerging as a pivotal state of Arab secular nationalism whether intentionally or not--but it is the fact of life. Read MOA's review on some indications of that. Long term geopolitical, economic and cultural ramifications of that for the region are immense and Russia is only happy to benefit from that, apart from satisfaction from playing a key role in saving the last secular Arab state. Just one small fact: 

 SCAC signs the LOI with Alexcina LLC/15.11.2018

One may argue, justifiably, that this is so far only LOI--sure, but the breakthrough for Russian civilian aircraft into rich Gulfies' market is a good sign, considering the fact that Russian weapons there are in high demand and Qatar and Saudis are really interested on getting their hands on S-400s. For Arabs, in general, the fact of containment of Israel is huge and it matters that Israel was contained by Russian weapons. Israel has only herself to blame for finding herself in such a conundrum but, and this is my profound conviction, Israel got used to beating on weak and exerting an immense influence on the United States internally so much, that she simply forgot that Russia is not the United States and it is inconceivable to have THIS in Russia, in the US--it is a normal occurrence. And that is the difference Israel should understand and the faster she does it, the better it will be for all parties involved. In the end, you reap what you sow.

There Is Always A Price To Be Paid.

We have been over this in this blog several times. It is good to repeat it yet again.

DUBAI (Reuters) - IranAir is looking to buy planes from any company not requiring U.S. sales permits and may consider Russia's Sukhoi Superjet 100, the flag carrier's head was quoted as saying, as Iran tries to renew its aging fleet despite facing U.S. sanctions... IranAir had ordered 200 passenger aircraft - 100 from Airbus, 80 from Boeing and 20 from Franco-Italian turboprop maker ATR. All the deals were dependent on U.S. licenses because of the heavy use of American parts in commercial planes.

I don't know if Iranians learned their lesson, after all Russian proverb the orient is a very delicate business applies fully here, but it is about time they started making some proper decisions. Especially with this in mind:

Most modern commercial planes have more than 10 percent in U.S. parts, the threshold for needing U.S. Treasury approval. But Russian officials have been reported as saying Sukhoi is working on reducing the number of U.S. parts in the hopes of winning an Iranian order for up to 100 aircraft. 

Big power politics does not work on mere trade contracts, however important they are.

The European Union, China and Russia backed a mechanism to allow “legitimate” business to continue with Iran, a plan aimed at sidestepping American sanctions and allowing international trade to continue unimpeded as President Donald Trump pursues his "America First" agenda. The push for such a channel, announced by EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini in New York late on Monday, reflects growing calls in countries such as France and Germany for the EU to adopt tools that will allow it to pursue its foreign-policy goals with less recourse to an unpredictable U.S. ally. A chief catalyst was Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal even as world powers urged the U.S. to stick to its mandate.

Bloomberg gives a decent representation of Iran's main export's (oil) distribution:

As you can see, if push comes to shove--new "instruments" or not, the United States can "kill off" Iran's deliveries to Europe and Asia easily. I do not have any faith with EU, which, I think, can be forced to do US bidding, especially when one talks about "defense" issue, which are important to Europeans (after all, aggressive Russkies are planning to harm Europe for...no apparent reason). This could be a disaster for Iran but... enter Russia. 

First, the reason Iran is still not bombed, as many in Tel Aviv (and D.C.) sleep and (wet) dream about, is because of, no, not China, but Russia. After all, even Iranian assets in Syria are breathing much easier as member of Knesset's Committee on Foreign Policy and Defense Xenia Svetlova (obviously of Russian Jewish descent) admitted today (in Russian). 

Since Russia supplied S-300s to Syria, Israel didn't fly a single mission into this country and this delivery changed the balance of power in region. 

Isn't it what I preach for years now? How many more empirical evidences are needed before people start to take in basic facts of great power behavior. Especially if this great power (or superpower) is Russia who loves peace and quiet. Iran, sure as hell, now better start thinking very clearly regarding her trade relations with Russia, because it is her who is selling this most important and desperately desirable product in the world--political stability. Hence the question: can Iran be slightly more patient for Russians finishing SSJ-100s to fully Russian specs, same goes to MC-21, which goes into series production next year, and so on? There is, after all, another dimension to this whole regional dynamics once one considers that almost 40% of Iranian population are ethnic Azerbaijanis and that brings into focus the issue of Caucasus and Turkey, which herself is somewhat in limbo right now, albeit I expect her to fall back into the NATO fold eventually. In the end, Iranian oil deliveries also rest on arrangements which Russia, who doesn't really gives a damn about sanctions, will make. 

So, no matter how important for Iran her regional ambitions are, she will have, at least for a little while, to dance a little bit to Russian tune, whose music sheet ranges from trade to military assistance to the alternative to SWIFT which eventually will be killed by the US, to...well, guarantees of Iran's safety which is a direct function of Russia's military might and geopolitical weight. It is what it is and for the time of this great turbulence, Iran will have to do a slight accommodation with Russia who is sincerely interested in keeping Iran stable, prosperous and peaceful. In the end, it was Iran who, once sanctions have been lifted, immediately signed contracts for 200 commercial aircraft NOT with Russia, who at that time hoped that Iran will consider Russia's support. But, as they say in Russia the orient is a very delicate business. It looks like Russians finally learned their lessons and that is what matters most at this point of time.

It Is The Devil You Know.

I wanted to post it a week ago, when it just came out but I got overwhelmed with work. Now is as good of a time as any. Listen attentively to what Putin has to say at 5:55 at Russia's Energy Week summit. The whole piece is worthy of attention but what Putin says about sanctions is massively important in a grand-strategy framework:

Fact is, for a leader of a nation to state that it is preferable to be under the most severe simultaneous actions, since it unties the hands, is a wowser of a statement and it gives some insight into Russia's political and economic kitchen. Well, this plus Putin speaking in the beginning (from 2:00) about failing to comprehend why the United States destroys the US Dollar. I too, to be frank, fail to understand from a basic rational position why the US works so hard to finish off the last vestige of its power--the trust in US Dollar. But that is if one uses basic principles of rationality. But, of course, Putin does know why and I, at the risk of sounding as an arrogant a-hole, also have an idea. Obviously not as comprehensive of an idea as Putin has (after all--he has one of the best, if not the best, intelligence-analytical apparatuses in the world working for him), but an idea nonetheless.    

Only sublime people (or morons) would deny that today we face a gigantic geopolitical shift and global turbulence--all that, the resulting effect of an implosion of a liberal capitalism (aka globalism) which has no national and cultural attachment other than to itself and to the process of making money, while increasingly failing to deliver an actual value. Indeed, consumerism ran into the most horrifying (for shareholders) financial wall--it reached consumer plateau. People, some people, either "overate" in developed countries or will never be able to afford standard of living so well "presented" in commercials--it does not work like this anymore and the American Dream is, frankly, dead. It was dead for sometime. I know, I remember America of 1990s and I can compare. The contrast is startling and not for good reasons. Fact is, I have all reasons to suspect that the situation is even grimmer than it is being reported.

So, is there any chance that America will improve? Some think so, by applying the very same methods that are in the foundation of collapse of liberalism. One of them is, in Russian-American case, the fight with competition for the markets by means of sanctions against Russia. This is not to mention a rabid Russophobia of Western elites, which helps them commit irrational and suicidal acts. One of those suicidal acts is precisely squandering of own reputation as business entity worthy of trust. All that is in the past for the US and the same is approaching US Dollar.

Consider $5.43 billion Russian-Indian contract for S-400s. Let us be frank here and I understand that it may sound harsh but in simple language the US has nothing comparable to S-400. Not even close. In other words--US wants India as US own market but has nothing competitive to offer.  So, what does it do? US does "convincing" (well, blackmailing) of other nations to not buy Russian weapons. It is pretty much the same situation as to offer a car buyer with $40, 000 budget a brand new top of the line Toyota or used Tesla with broken batteries. It is kinda obvious what normal rational people would choose. The same goes for Russian-Indian other aerospace projects and technology transfers. Absolutely the same situation is with energy supply with US being in a constant bipolar state threatening and then recanting, then threatening again and recanting yet again, to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2. Any companies which want to cooperate with Russia on extraction are under the threat of sanctions. Good for Russia, since she was able to substitute key imports in hi-tech extracting and gas liquefaction equipment with Russian-made equally good analogues. 

So, not only Russia remains immensely competitive on gas market, she continues to supply the US with LNG. Thus the question: are they that dumb in D.C. that they do not understand that sanctioning half-of-the-world left and right they exhibit not US power but ultimate weakness to compete and doing so destroy reputation of US (well, it has been destroyed) as a reliable partner? With Russia in particular, the US is not competitive anymore across the whole spectrum of crucial military (and not only) technologies. In some, US simply has nothing, zero, to offer--such as non-nuclear submarines, cutting edge missile technologies and it increasingly falls behind in combat aviation. Now comes this MC-21 "thingy". 

One of the massive fields in which the United States remains highly competitive and a global leader is commercial aviation. I do like Boeing commercial aircraft, I will be missing a beauty and a queen of the skies B-747 once it is removed from the passenger service, I recall warmly B-727 and I have no problems with taking ever-reliable B-777 over Atlantic. In other words, I am a fan and admirer of the American (primarily Boeing) commercial aviation. But the juiciest part of Boeing's commercial contracts is medium range B-737 and it is precisely this segment where main money to be made. Now get this: Boeing fights with Airbus (with its A-320 series) for this immense market. Russia is not Boeing's significant market but Russian carriers surely bought many B-737s. Enough to take a look at Aeroflot fleet--42 B-737s, fewer than A-320-1, but still. But the rightmost column of Aeroflot shows 50 of Sukhoi Super Jet 100s which increasingly begin to fly (there are other carriers operating them) routes which used to be serviced by Boeing and Airbus mid-range aircraft. Here is Russian carrier Azimuth flying its SSJ -100 from St. Petersburg to Krasnodar. So, the shorter mid-range routes in Russia already see SSJ-100s substituting Western mid-range aircraft (B-737, A-320+1). Now imagine what happens when MC-21, especially with Russian PD-14 engine makes it to market? Yes, the removal of B-737s and A-320s will start in earnest. 

MC-21 is enormously competitive and it is significantly cheaper that either B-737 or A-320. So, the Russian state will have to do very little convincing of Russian carriers to buy MC-21. In fact, Russian commercial aviation is in full anticipation of this aircraft which was created specifically for this purpose--to compete with Western mid-range commercial aircraft and, eventually, come out on the global market. 

This video gives a pretty good feel about advantages of MC-21 over its direct B-737 Max competitor. It is very clear that MC-21 will have home field advantage in Russia, but MC-21's potential global appeal where the real danger to Boeing and Airbus monopoly is. How? Very simple: start from Iran and then, even despite own COMAC-919 (very slow and troubled development) there will be takers (possibly) in China and even in Europe. After all, nobody took SSJ-100 seriously too, initially. Now this aircraft flies in Europe and Mexico and people love it.

MC-21 is a much more serious competitor for a much bigger market segment and latest sanctions on Russian companies involved in MC-21 program are just a first salvo. But at this point, one has to understand why Putin wishes all sanctions, all of them severe, now. Russia, it seems, has already found or is very close to an economic model which works and this one has nothing in common with liberal capitalism. This model has no title yet but it is clearly some kind of fusion between state capitalism, socialism and free enterprise and it will be very interesting to see how this model will evolve. But all seems to point to the fact that it is already largely in place. After all, Russia openly proclaimed she will become number one arms supplier in the world and this, ladies and gentlemen, is as high tech and cutting edge as it comes. Ah, yes--dedolarization is in full swing, while President Trump threatens (in Russian--fresh) India and Russia. Evidently they have no idea of effects of a quicksand in D.C. For some odd reason this comes to mind:

To Be Continued...

About Breakthroughs.

About something peaceful, for a change. In the news which will never make front pages of any Western "business" media,  Russian commercial carrier S7 Airlines just signed letter of intent for 75 brand new, shortened 75 seat version, of Sukhoi Superjet (in German). The deliveries for this new modification of Sukhoi passenger jets will start in 2022. For anyone who wonders why it is significant, one has to remember that 10 years ago Russian manufacturers had no competitive jets to offer for internal market, now two major niches of regional jet, such as Sukhoi, and most popular mid-range jet, such as MC-21, are being filled and they are being filled fast.

Considering the fact that Aeroflot (42 SSJs) and Azimuth also use SSJs extensively--the trend towards domestically made aircraft is now well pronounced and, considering Russia's massive market for air travel, one can fairly safely predict that in decade or two these Russian-designed and made commercial jets will begin to dominate domestic market. But that was the idea to start with. For a commercial jet, such as SSJ, for which all Western "analysts" predicted a very grim fate--it is not too shabby to perform as it is performing, with Iran also signing letter of intent for 40 SSJs just a week ago. The issue of Iranian commercial jet market is a whole other story in itself and it is driven, as it supposed to be, by geopolitical, not just business considerations. Iran must know who really is a guarantor of her safety today and that "small" consideration is what I called a geopolitical currency. After all, MC-21 is an outstanding aircraft, if you know what I mean.