Go To 0.25 Of Normal Speed.

On Youtube for this clip from Russian MoD. Can you see the missile? I don't, no matter how I played with it:

In accordance to  Russian MoD Kalibr missile covered 250 kilometers in 137 seconds before hitting the target in the Crimean Peninsula. This is Mach=5.5 land attack missile. Are we yet again in "Revelation Mode"? Let's wait and see, but this Zvezda article (in Russian) has this funny phrase: Initially, when missile accelerates, supersonic fighters which follow it are practically equal (meaning following) with it (c). And then, and then... I guess this was THE message. Make your own conclusions. Many people already did.

 

On US Missile Defense In Poland And Romania.

Today, in Sochi, Vladimir Putin held the meeting with Russia's security council where the activation of US missile defense sites in Poland and Romania was discussed. Well, the larger issue here IS NOT much touted (or, rather, marketed) missile "defense" shield--that is not an insurmountable problem at all and, shield or no shield, all necessary targets will be destroyed in case of conflict. The problem here is different--Russia is worried about the use of launchers for very different, other than anti-ballistic, missiles. We are talking about the first strike weapons, which are medium and short range missiles. These are not "defensive" weapons.  These are first-strike weapons. The piece from US News & World Report to which the link is provided is very vague in describing Russia's real concern. Here is a piece in Russian and Putin's quote from Russian President's site:

Второе: это явное нарушение Договора о ракетах средней и малой дальности, потому что пусковые установки, которые будут размещаться после введения в строй РЛС в Румынии и Польше, могут быть легко использованыдля размещения ракет средней и малой дальности. Причём это переоборудование происходит в очень короткие сроки, и для нас с вами этобудет действительно незаметно, что там происходит. Мы даже не сможем это контролировать. И это дополнительная для нас угроза.  

Translation: Second: this is an obvious violation of the Short And Medium Range Missile Treaty, since these missile-launchers which will be deployed at the sites in Romania and Poland upon activation of the Radars there could easily be reconfigured for short and medium range missiles. This reconfiguration of the launchers could be done in a very short time and for us it will be impossible to see what is going on there. We will  not be able to control (used as "monitor" semantics) it and this is an additional threat to us.   

The first question which should be asked here is this: is United States really planning to go as far as to deploy these short and medium range missiles? By now, for anyone who didn't spend last 15+ years under the stone (or stoned) it is increasingly clear (and I know that it is painful for many true American patriots to swallow and I understand them) that making any kinds of treaties with US is a waste of time and paper. Current US power "elites" are not trustworthy. They are also incompetent and increasingly irrational. So, the answer is, yes, absolutely. It is in the nature of the beast which combines in itself massive military-industrial-media-political complex interests with pathological inability to learn. Thus the question becomes a purely military-technological one. 

I am not going to go deep into the technological and tactical nature of the issue but I, certainly, can testify to the fact that Putin's words about finding a solution are not an empty bluster. In the end, the issue here is in numbers and the essence of US shield in Europe which is, indeed, anti-ballistic in its nature (for now) and is based largely on naval technology of Aegis and Spy-1 radar. 

   

Deveselu, Romania Air Base, yesterday.

 
Here is one of the latest developments in Russia which may give some insight in what is already in store for these sites, if, God forbids, things go hot between NATO and Russia. I am talking for now about conventional high-precision response. These sites, of course, are simply incapable of intercepting hyper-sonic maneuvering blocks of latest Sarmat ICBMs, as an example, nor of Iskander's Mach=7 and maneuvering missiles. But possible appearance of the short and medium range missiles is already being countered, among many other things, by the start of production of missile corvettes Project 22800 Karakurt in Crimea. I already mentioned these brand new ships in one of my Mosquitoes related threads.  At least 18 of these corvettes will be built and, I assume, they will be equally distributed between Baltic and Black Sea Fleets. Adding here 6 brand new SSKs (Project 636, NATO--Kilo) and already deployed two Project 21361 Byan missile corvettes at the Black Sea, and three brand new Project 11356 Frigates, we are talking, roughly, 100 Kalibr missiles in the first salvo from the naval bases and patrol zones in the Black Sea which are well within both the range to Devesulu Air Base where the launchers could be (or will be) located and well within the Air Defense zone of Russia's Air Space Forces' units based in Crimea. This is the most likely scenario against Romanian site, since Iskander's missiles have the range of 500 kilometers--it is more than enough to address the threat of the Polish missile installation from Kaliningrad District but is not enough to do so from Crimea against Romanian installation. 

Once the first salvo is launched from the Black Sea, the "mopping up" of remaining missile launchers and missile-defense (or air-defense) installations could be done by the salvo of X-101 missiles launched from deep within Russian territory by strategic bombers. It is a nightmarish scenario which will see many, not just NATO, but specifically serious American casualties. The escalation will follow and what will be its dynamics is unknown but it doesn't take a military professional to understand that it will be bad. What should also be understood that Russia will not attack first unless attacked. Evidently this simplest fact is beyond the grasp (or otherwise--deliberate calculations) of NATO, whose demoralization and slow rotting away can only be delayed, not prevented or reversed, for a little short while. But it seems Washington is hell bent on creating a situation when things may get out of control. The only difference today with the Cold War 1.0 is the fact that Russia does possess massive conventional stand-off capability. In fact, real military professionals in US do know that NATO can not win conventionally anything in Russia's immediate vicinity. This fact doesn't sit well with many in Washington, the same as the fact that no one in their own mind and with even a hint of competence in Russian elite will trust any US worthless "guarantees" anymore.

And here is the deal. US Dollar is a currency which today is supported by nothing but trust in US military power. Once great industrial empire, which was responsible in late 1940s for well over 60% of global GDP (measured in real numbers of manufactured goods) is gone. De-industrialization continues apace and we all live on the top of colossal financial thermonuclear bomb, which will go off inevitably. Once it goes off, the US financial markets will be done de jure, not just de facto. The only thing which prevents many from dumping US treasuries--the main instrument, together with printing press, of financing US as a nation, from collapse is US military, or rather what it supposed to be capable of conventionally. Nobody is interested in nuclear option. US military is sure as hell capable of turning conventionally a lot of third world countries and whatever passes there as armies into dust. But Russia is not third world and neither is China (but China is a separate case). Well, frankly, US military power wasn't faring that well, to put it mildly, as of lately. And then, of course, Syria happened and the whole hell broke loose precisely because of understanding (or, in most cases, sensing) the simple fact that there is another military power which fields very comparable, to put it mildly, conventional military capabilities. This is a clear and present danger, a massive threat, to US status as the owner of global reserve currency, which rests on US being conventional military superpower. The less US produces, the more is the share of military factor in the "trust" in US economy and financial system. It is also a threat to a livelihood of US 1% who did develop addiction to viewing themselves as militarily, hence financially, untouchable.

Consider this. Prior to the Soviet collapse and well into the 2000s, unless everyone talked about nuclear annihilation, which was understood as unacceptable by all sides, the whole notion of conventional response at US proper was seen as a fantasy at best. The only stand-off weapon, Soviet long range submarine-launched cruise missile S-10 Granat capable of long range conventional strike...well...all efforts were made not to allow this weapon  to be properly procured. Things changed since. The appearance of X-101 missiles with ranges exceeding 5,000 kilometers, to Kalibrs (with the range of 2,500 km.), to new cruise missiles whose range is reportedly up to 10,000 km--we are talking here the change of military paradigm since suddenly the conflict could be conceived (it doesn't mean that it should) within purely conventional framework. But that is what the US wanted all along for the last 25 years at least--all of this desire based on perception that no peer-to-peer power will match US conventionally in a foreseeable future. Yet, the shock was and still remains so great that Caspian Flotilla was mistakenly named a fleet. Obviously, Caspian Flotilla is just that--operational unit, while Fleet is, by definition, is operational strategic unit. Deploying such weapons--it is being done as I type it--on nuclear submarines, such as Oscar-II SSGNs, brand new Yasen-class SSGNs or perspective SSKs with air independent propulsion make conventional precision (emphasis on precision) strike on US territory a reality. This is a bottom line, anyone who says otherwise is full o' sh.t amateur or being totally in denial. It was none other than general designer of Bulava SLBM Yuri Solomonov who in 2008 predicted that US will offer in some form to get rid of nuclear weapons based on perception of own advantage in high precision weapons. Solomonov made a mistake in only one sense--that the offer will be made openly. In reality the US was moving into conventional paradigm for quite a while now, enough to take a look at really rundown state of US nuclear deterrent. 

Suddenly, US is facing a conventional mid-life crisis. Those damn russkies not only have the most advanced nuclear deterrent in the world but have beaten US at its game of conventional high precision weapons. Now, what is going to happen is very simple. If US deploys medium to short range missiles both in Poland and Romania, the production of TU-160M2 strategic bombers will be greatly accelerated, 5th generation submarines will also be put in production as a priority, plus new.....Well, I will abstain from all those Russia-strong scenarios for a simple reason, I live in the US and my American friends, colleagues--decent and wonderful people--are as dear to me as my friends and even some relatives in Russia. For me any notion of US and Russia getting into the open conflict is blasphemous. I tremble at the thought that some moron in high corridors of power would make a stupid mistake. But it matters today that such a moron (or morons) exist mostly in US corridors of power. In this case, for all those fat cats who never served a day in their life and who try to provoke Russia day and night it is going to be a good reminder that, should they do a stupid thing, they will experience exactly what people of Serbia, Iraq, Syria or Libya experienced--destroyed property, killed relatives, horrific injuries. The only good thing about it, though, will be the fact that the world will have a chance to rebuild and go on living without fear of radiation poisoning, after hanging those who brought such a calamity to their own nation and I don't mean Russia.  As for Europe...who needs their opinion.   

Admiral Grigorovich, Welcome To The Fleet.

Yesterday, the leading ship of project 11356 Admiral Grigorovich was officially transferred to the Russian Navy. This ship, as well as two others, Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov, to be commissioned in April and October 2016 respectively, are a good lesson in geopolitical realism for Russia. Hopefully, the lesson has been learned. Original 6-ship series of this class was supposed to have Ukrainian-made power plant but, as you all may know, things didn't work out this way. Current regime in Kiev is anything but normal and there are no reasons anymore for Russia to buy anything from Ukraine, especially equipment for the navy. Nor was it a good idea to buy power plant from German MTU--sanctions on Russia are here to stay and it is all for the better, while Germany can forget about Russia's market. Good riddance. NPO Saturn is already busy with designing power plant for future Russian ships. Russia is totally capable of producing first class power plant (COGAG) for any class of the ships.

Meanwhile, three other hulls of this class, most likely will not get their power plant on time and could be sold to India with Ukrainian power plant. Initially, all six were planned for the Black Sea Fleet, now, it seems, the Black Sea Fleet will receive only three. This changes operational picture substantially. The Black Sea Fleet for decades, for a reasons of Crimea being a de jure part of Ukraine since 1991, was the most neglected Russia's Fleet. Times changed and six project 11356 frigates were supposed to be the core of what would eventually emerge as remote analogue of the Soviet Navy's 5th Operational Squadron (OPESK). While deliveries of the brand new SSKs of Kilo-class are on track and formation of the separate brigade of this highly capable subs is on track too, the Black Sea Fleet will need more in terms of its surface combatants. One of the stop-gap solutions could be, and it was articulated already, delivery of increased numbers of project 21631 Buyan-class and perspective project 22800 Karakurt-class  missile corvettes. There is also a possibility of some of the project 22160 patrol ships adding to what can be a mighty first salvo of deadly Kalibr and Onyx missiles. The problem with this solution, however, is that none of the missile corvettes listed have robust enough air defense systems and carry only short-range self-defense weapons. Grigorovich-class frigates were supposed to be the ones providing a robust air defense cover with their Shtil' AD Complex.

It is difficult to predict how this problem will be solved but there is little doubt that something is in the works. In the end, the transfer of Northern Fleet bound couple of project 22350 Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates with their mighty Poliment-Redut can not be ruled out. Meanwhile, the new ship for the Russian Navy and she is a beauty and a damn dangerous one at that. 

Grigorovich sister ship Admiral Essen

 As they say--7 feet under the keel............ 

 

Merry Christmas

Roger Scruton defines Western Civilization in these words:"The roots of Western civilization lie in the religion of Israel, the culture of Greece, and the law of Rome, and the resulting synthesis has flourished and decayed in a thousand ways during the two millennia which followed the death of Christ"(c)

Well, Western Civilization is Christian Civilization first and foremost. I, being an atheist, albeit of Oriana Fallaci's type, which she called Christian Atheist, understand clearly the roots of many things which I love and treasure in my life. In the end, it was Christianity which created a framework in which Western culture could flourish, including the science which, in many respects, spelled the doom to many Christian doctrines. It certainly demolished purely evangelical world-view. Yet, the message of Christ endures and so does morality which fights a desperate rear-guard battle for preserving what is left today of Western Civilization. It is the last bastion which separates our civilization from chaos and decay of gutless, self-centered world without any enduring and necessary inhibitors with which humanity managed to survive so far.

By celebrating Christmas we celebrate Western Civilization, this is especially true today and, being an atheist, today I am a christian in a full cultural sense that transcends the limits of scriptures. This day my thoughts are with persecuted Christian people of the Middle East, they are also with all decent, honest, hard working people who quietly live by 9 Commandments (unless we are talking Walter Sobchak types, if you get my drift;-). So, Merry Christmas, my friends, and let us hope that we will kick evil's ass and we should. 

Now to the Christmas presents. They are mostly for Russian Navy. 

1. Two Project 22800 Karakurt missile corvettes were laid at Pella shipyard in St. Petersburg.

Project 22800 (In Russian)

These ships named Uragan and Typhoon are two first ships of what is promised to be 18 ships class. Displacing 800 tons they are more sea-worthy than notorious Byan platforms and, of course, are carriers of no less notorious Kalibr and Onyx missiles. First two hulls, as it seems now, will carry no missile Air Defense complex, albeit further ships in class will carry what is known today as navalized version of Pantsir gun-missile AD system, which will give these ships a very respectable close-range (18-20 km) air defense capability.

All this is not good news for US Navy and its, especially so, Littoral community. For US Navy, which became a hostage of sorts of its own magnificent and, arguably, unrivaled combat history which is dominated by large combatants (traveling 1 st Class, remember?), the whole notion of a 800-ton ship outgunning, in missile exchange, its own much larger and much too expensive combatants is anathema. Russian Navy will network these ships, making Russia's littoral impenetrable and will deploy these ships, in a good ol' Soviet tradition of 5th Operational Squadron, to Mediterranean, either as a part of Ship Strike Group (KUG) centered around larger combatants with vastly superior ASW and AD, or as an autonomous group. It is clear, however, that such a platform, albeit with "degraded" electronics and sensor suite has an enormous export potential, thus opening the door to export versions of  Kalibr and Onyx missiles. This could be a game changer in many littorals, especially of the nations which do have some semblance of real air forces and AD systems. 

2. A very important news: Northern Shipyard (Severnay Verf) has started a massive modernization program.

New Facilities (In Russian) 

The centerpiece of this program is a brand new dry dock with the length of....400 meters. That means only one thing--aircraft carrier(s). Will the time be right for Russian carriers by 2020-2022? I am not in a position to judge but there never were doubts about Russia's blue water aspirations. We'll see. Judging by the tone of news, most of the programs for Russian Navy seem to be financed in full.

The Perils Of Mosquito (conclusion).

I was about to continue with fairly extensive conclusion on the topic of Mosquitoes when, well, Russian Navy, or, to be more precise, Red Banner Caspian Flotilla simply demonstrated what those small missile ships, granted, accompanied by a larger corvette Dagestan, can do. The file on REAL distributed lethality is, finally, open. 4 ships, with total displacement of about half that of a single destroyer and the price tag even less than that, launched the salvo of 26 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea. Some time later, those missiles hit 11 targets of terrorists in Syria--about 1500 kilometers away. Strategic ramifications of this are colossal, it was clear already before, but after today it became a reality of an immense power of modern missile weapons and those seemingly "unimpressive" platforms which carry them. After all, the range of Kalibr is up to 2500 kilometers and GLONASS' combat (not civilian) CEP  (Circular Error Probable) is rumored to be about 0.4-0.6 meters, that is 1.5-2 feet. 

Will Russia put active homing device on Kalibrs? Possible, but 5000 kilometer range cruise missiles are already in line for procurement.

P.S. Now I have to rewrite almost completed article for Proceedings submission. The article about, and you may have guessed it already, what else--Mosquito fleet.