Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Small Bypass.

Disqus seems to be under attack today and as a result comments simply do not post because the client freezes. So, I decided to make a short bypass and expand a bit upon this Ukrainian "buildup" (in Russian) around Azov Sea and the transfer there of their mighty and scary Gurza-M armored cutters, produced, of course, on Petro Poroshenko's own wharf. So, before going into this purely tactical matter let me explain why VSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine), which are, allegedly, among the five strongest armed forces in Europe, exist. Read attentively. VSU exist for only two purposes: 
1. To suppress unrest at home;
2. Most importantly--to launch a major provocation against Russia and perish while doing so.   
I have been through this on different forums and other platforms for five years now and communicated a lot with Ukrainian "patriots" and military "experts" who, especially around 2014-15 still lived, many still do, in this delusion that VSU are capable to resist Russian Armed Forces, which, allegedly they fight in Donbas. It goes without saying that for VSU any real fight with Russian Armed Forces can end only in two outcomes: very-very bad for VSU or a complete annihilation of VSU as a force with catastrophic casualties. It also goes without saying that Russia doesn't want to do this, while she is absolutely capable to simply demolish present Ukrainian terrorist state in a very short time. 

But back to Azov Sea. I already expounded on this Azov matter here and here. So, operationally and tactically appearance of two Ukrainian floating coffins (that's what they are) in Azov Sea changes absolutely nothing except for Russian FSB Border Guards slightly tweaking their tactical procedures (they are described in Tactical Manuals, such as defunct Top Secret NSPK-72, or TRPK) which do provide excellent guidance for prevention of any possible provocation of these two Ukrainian boats against commercial shipping. I know that crews of those brave Ukrainian sailors, unless they are on some serious drugs, should feel rather shaky in case of following orders of their superiors to do some stupid thing. Those orders may come but here is the deal. At this stage Russia can both prevent provocations or if one succeeds--Russia doesn't care much about the fact that US is desperate for any Casus Belli to unleash a massive (even more massive and even more hysterical) anti-Russian campaign. 
The ways to prevent VSU from doing the nasty are numerous and they may include, and are already being done as I type this, both aggressive patrolling of the neutral waters next to Ukraine's territorial waters, thus, in effect blocking any attempts to intercept commercial fishing and marine traffic by Ukies, to organizing escort corridors which is not that difficult really. How can VSU know that there is an axe over their head? Simple: those scary boats have emission detectors (I am sure) and they will know when the weapon systems are locked onto them and that is rather unnerving moment when one knows that it being tracked by not just radar but by the radar in lock and tracking (soprovozhdenie) mode. So, there are always many ways to send a signal. After all, behind USS Donald Cook situation, now universally, wrongly, assigned to SU-24 EW systems, was, realistically, a lock on by the radar of a very different system. In the end, suppressing those boats sensors and communications is not such big of a deal. Russia has vast experience of doing this since 1950s till today. VSU, actually, was on a receiving end and Ukies and their foreign curators didn't like it. 

In other words, Russia has a whole spectrum of technical, tactical and operational means to prevent any provocations and, if need be, to simply "correct" Ukrainian "threat" in Azov Sea. In the end, Russian fire power in the area is simply overwhelming. 

UPDATE: Today, just to demonstrate what I was talking about when mentioned aggressive patrolling without any violation of any rules. Here is a snippet of it. All whining by Ukrainian side that they are being intimidated...well, too freaking bad--one do not commit acts of piracy in violation of the spirit and the letter of a bilateral agreement and then complain. Typical svidomy logic (or rather lack thereof)--Us? What for? Let them be grateful that for now these are just light forces. They really do not want to face heavy cavalry.  

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