Monday, September 17, 2018

Russia Loses Recce IL-20 In Syria...

Launches of the missiles from French Frigate Auvergne (FREMM-class) are detected while four IAF F-16 attacked Syria. These are red line news in Russia now (in Russian) and French better pray that it is just a coincidence. It is a fog of war now but if Auvergne launched her Asters we may be facing some major escalation. For now it is not clear what kind of missiles (TLAM--Scalp, or AD--Aster) were launched from French frigate. I'll keep updating the more info pours in. 

UPDATE: Israel refused to comment on IL-20s and its 14 crew members' disappearance. 

NOT UPDATEJust a thought--at this stage there is still NO info on WHICH kind of missiles Auvergne launched. If those were Asters, it becomes pretty much clear what is going on. It has been now more than two hours and still no clarity on this crucial issue. 

GOT TO GO NOW:  Got to go, so "in-progress" thought. If Israel is culprit--No Fly Zone. If, however, France is involved--that could be tricky but, depending on what Auvergne's maneuvers are right now (such as exiting launch zone full steam, as an example) and if her Asters were involved in shooting down IL-20, let's put it this way--Elysee Palace better find some really damn convincing explanations and actions to follow to make Putin's decision not to sink French naval assets more or less bearable. I am sure Russian military knows exactly what distance French frigate was from IL-20's loss of contact and what the ranges of Aster missiles are. It is not that difficult to figure it out and I am sure Putin by now has a good grasp of what has happened. 

INTERMITTENT SUMMARY:  So it is clear mow that IAF used the oldest trick in the book by shielding her aircraft by IL-20 which was descending for landing--so very Israeli--and then, of course, lied that it warned Russian side. minute prior. I will return to Israel later, for now it is known that Bibi wants to speak with Putin and that Israel is engaged with Russia across a whole spectrum of diplomatic, military, what have you, activity trying to prevent what might be coming. 

Having said all that. The part of the blame rests with Syrian AD and specifically with those operators who launched S-200. There is very little doubt that IL-20s IFF (Interrogation Friend-Foe) system was on and that would have necessitate a much more stringent ROE. It didn't work. So, Russian AD specialists may want to introduce additional rules (or caveats) for the whole complex in Syria. After this event it will be easier to control Syrian part. Russian side also bears responsibility. Now back to Israel. 

The most important part in all that is that unlike previous statements from General Rudskoi, Defense Minister Shoigu's statement today carries much more weight and Shoigu directly made Israel responsible for the situation. So, what's in store now? For starters, I think, a lot depends on what Bibi will be willing to give Russia. If not much, the game changes and, indeed, all kinds of scenarios, from No-fly Zone to Syria getting S-300, or simply additional Russian-operated S-300 and S-400 appearing in Syria, to who knows what else. Israel is not in a very good situation right now and the only thing they may do is to place the blame on someone else (i.e. Syria). It is a sad day for Russia and, of course, I can only imagine what kind of agony relatives of IL-20 crew are going through right now but highly sensitive personal aspect of this unnecessary tragedy should not obscure a very obvious fact of Israel's treachery (what's new?) and the price it will pay one way or another. What price is it going to be? We'll see in time.

UPDATE: Putin's quote:
Russia will investigate the incident, Putin said, adding that Moscow will boost security of Russian troops in Syria following the incident. He said that these will be “the steps that everyone will notice.”
UPDATE: Some very important info. Really important which clarifies a lot (in Russian):
Syrian AD didn't have IFF codes, which Russia (understandably) didn't want to provide. So, that means the integration with SAA's AD is done by simpler protocols. 

No comments:

Post a Comment