Is Jim Mattis A Real Deal, After All?

Sure as hell looks like it. I never was too idealistic about this professional-to-professional comms as a method of sorting things out (albeit I count it to be essential), but for anyone who observed Mad Dog (really?) Mattis in the last several months, the conclusion that this USMC General is a real adult in the room must not be discounted. First, today, he states that he is enthusiastic about top dogs talking to each-other (in Russian). Now he says he is ready to meet Shoigu. What's going on? Wink, wink--it is Friday. 

Oh, man, real deal Soul. (Yes, I know Marvin's tragic story).

Nothing Unexpected.

As was expected, Donald Trump ended the Iran "Nuclear Deal", thus confirming that US is run by neocons and, generally, by Israel. Obviously, more nations will begin to think twice (if not more) before signing any agreements with the US since they are not worth the paper they are printed on--but that is not really the news anymore.  As one observer put a dramatic spin on the news:

Can America's Credibility Survive the Death of the Iran Nuclear Deal? 

I don't know under what stone this guy was living before but the only question which one is forced to ask is this: America has credibility? I think the "credibility" thing stopped being considered in US political top since Yugoslavia  1999, with it this credibility simply evaporated after Iraq's invasion in 2003. What is interesting in all this, however, is the fact of what is Iran going to do now? For those who think that Iran and Russia have allied relations--they better check their facts. Those relations are not easy and current Iranian top is rather explicitly reserved towards Russia when talks about real money begin. Obviously, till now Iran was very much leaning towards European products and manufacturers. 

Now, that a formal casus belli for Israel's and Saudi (that is US) war (whatever that war might be) on Iran begins to slowly take shape, I want to return to what I wrote 9 months ago:

Iran knows for sure that should the unthinkable but not improbable happen, such as an American attack on the Russian forces in Syria, Iran will not be left standing on the side—she gets immediately “involved” whether she wants it or not.

Well, now Iran gets involved one way or another in a first place and it will be up to Russia, not even China, to ensure that Iran remains standing. Does Israel want to start a land campaign in Syria? I don't know, she sure as hell, together with Saudis, wants to fight to the last American soldier (and pilot) against Iran and here we have to wait and see what Bibi has to say to Putin tomorrow after Victory Day Parade in Moscow.  In related news, US is about to impose another round of sanctions on Russia's Military Industrial Complex--all that, together with killing Iran Deal, despite objections of... get this... James Mattis. Who would have known that the only realist in Trump's Administration will be a combat general with a moniker of a "Mad Dog". Mattis should seriously consider transfer of this title to Mr. Bolton or Nikki Hailey. With Hailey, of course, there will be some issue with appropriate conjugation of the term "Dog", if you know what I mean. 

Meanwhile, judging by Putin's remarks to State Duma today after the vote for confirmation of Medvedev as a Prime Minister, one should have very little doubt where this whole spectacle in D.C. is going since Putin was blunt--Russia is going to end US Dollar in own economy. It also seems that all those talks about US-Russian summit should be put to rest. Meanwhile, May 9 is coming to Russia and this song will be played, and people will stand to it and sing all over Russia in millions tomorrow. 

    
With a Victory Day you all.  

  

Summit? What Summit?

As was predicted, there are no plans in Russia to arrange meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. It is absolutely correct approach:

MOSCOW, April 16. /TASS/. Russia and the US are not discussing any possible meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "There is no discussion of the presidents’ possible meeting, which they talked about during their recent telephone conversation," the Kremlin spokesman said. Peskov added that Moscow "expects some conversation to start with time, when American colleagues settle their domestic issues, despite the damage to bilateral relations that Washington is inflicting now."

The immediate question in this case is this: to discuss what with who? What's the point of Vladimir Putin, who represents and is supported by overwhelming majority of the nation and elites, thus carrying legitimacy and guarantee of any treaties and settlements Russia concludes with anyone, meeting with the guy who is completely unhinged as is most of US political class? As Vzglyad, via Wall Street Journal, reports (in Russian), Trump initially was predisposed for all-out attack on Syria including Russian assets and only Mattis' insistence made Trump to yield to more "moderate" version of illegal attack on Syria.

WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump deferred to his Pentagon chief’s caution and tempered his preference for a more robust attack on Syria over allegations it used deadly gas on civilians, the first hints at the direction of his revamped national-security team.

If to believe WSJ—a rather risky proposition for a rag which is vehemently neoconservative-interventionist and is long ago a propaganda outlet for American virtual economy—Trump wanted to go with the "trigger" which Russia clearly indicated: any attack on Russian assets or Russian casualty from strikes—Russian AD gets engaged and will shoot down missiles and will engage missile carriers. Trump, again, if to believe WSJ, wanted just that. So, what's to talk to with the guy and his cabal of unhinged "advisers", such as Bolton, about? It is guaranteed that no negotiated settlement or power configuration between Russia and the US will survive the very first meeting with American media-political environment which cannot be judged anymore in any terms other than a complete mad house. In other words—US is absolutely not-treaty worthy party, period. There is nothing to talk about. There is nobody to talk to for Vladimir Putin. It seems, though, that the only people who operate within general professional and reason-driven framework are "Mad Dog" Mattis and Joseph Dunford—they understand the war, others don't. 

Expect in coming days, week or months an increased volatility and number of provocations initiated by none other than Trump himself with, possibly, Ukraine becoming slightly "hotter", plus other well-known and documented "technologies" from US Department of State's "arsenal of democracy" such as all kinds of "colored revolutions" and destabilization at Russia's perimeter—after all, May 7th is the day of Vladimir Putin's inauguration and then, of course, World Cup 2018—so many opportunities to show oneself a complete sore loser. So many European countries to stage false flag calamities. The United States, or, rather, her current power and media elites are on a collision course with Russia (why not China—is a separate manner, the issue is not only economic). The stakes are enormous—either Russia is destroyed or, which is most likely and is happening already and the process is irreversible, she completely removes herself from the shackles of 1990s and re-emerges as another superpower, this means the end of the United States as we know it, since the main pillar on which US virtual hegemony rests is her self-proclaimed military omnipotence. Once this pillar is removed, for the whole world to see, the US economy, large parts of which are completely "monetized" or exist only on paper, will crumble. I wrote for years and years that the US simply cooks the books, evidently there are people from purely economic-accounting business who agree with me:

With an expected debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% at the end of this year, the US is now just behind Italy as the world’s third most indebted major country, and far above Spain and France with their near 100% debt ratio. Still the future looks yet bleaker as we expect the US debt to grow to $30 trillion within five more years, by 2023. The US debt ratio would then be 140%. For most consumers of economic news, these figures might sound bewildering. But that’s just because you might not know that the US government has been cooking the books. To put it somewhat milder, the US government – (exceptional as they are) – is so to say creative in reporting its debt figures, or at the very least they don’t follow the conventions that apply to the mere mortal countries, that is, to the rest of the world.

It is impossible to even come up with the actual real number of the US GDP—it is not 20 Trillion USD, not even close and declared fictional number is not taken seriously by any competent analyst. American resources, while still significant, are absolutely inadequate for stated goals of American global hegemony. Once the peer appears who the United States cannot defeat militarily and especially so conventionally—the game is over. The more the US stays the present course the more it becomes inevitable that the only things which will be discussed at some point in the future will be not new power arrangements but the terms of surrender. But I wrote about it for years now. So will the US try the unthinkable and destroy herself, and the world, in the process? I wouldn't discount such a possibility.  

Let The Western Media "Win".

This morning, more-or-less verified data started to pour in. And it is not pretty, to put it mildly, for NATO "technology" and Western media went into overdrive delivering what they deliver best--incompetent BS and propaganda. But the main takeaway from this insanity by US and her two pathetic lap-dog, UK and France, is this:

1. It is obvious, that the strike was "choreographed" between US and Russia to allow both face saving and diffusing way out for POTUS who is an aggressive incompetent bully, who will try to put the world on the brink yet again, especially considering the fact that he is not "briefable" and runs completely on his mood and amateur impulses. One of the, obvious now, condition for strike was to both avoid hitting any Russian asset and, as most likely was settled, to keep Russian AD assets in Syria from direct engaging of NATO targets. 

2. Thus only Syrian AD was engaged in repulsing of the illegal NATO strike. Syrian AD proper, unlike newest Russian assets there, has mostly equipment, bar 40 S1s and some Buk-M2s, from 1980s. Of course, even those assets are now integrated into the Russian AD system and do receive acquisition and targeting information from Russian complexes' plethora of modern radar and optronic systems. 

3. Out of 103 TLAMs launched by NATO, it is confirmed now--71 have been shot down by Syrian AD. It is an outstanding result for older, granted--upgraded, AD systems. It is also an embarrassment for NATO. Judging by the overall pictures from Damascus and Homs even early morning--life seemed absolutely normal and very few hits and mild destruction were reported. As Deputy Chief of General Staff Alexander Rudskoy stated: there are no killed among SAA's servicemen (in Russian). He also expanded on the "sources" of launches which included B-1B bombers and launches were conducted both from Med and Red Sea. 

4. Evidently Buk-M2 performed extremely well and that is the system which was delivered to Syria some time ago and nobody knows how many of those are there. They are there, though--it is a confirmed fact. 

5. The United States, let alone her poodles from NATO, never experienced, since Vietnam, competent and effective AD system. Performance of Syrian AD today can easily be graded as A-  and it is totally deserved. 

In coming days and weeks US propaganda machine will continue to parrot pathetic grandiose statements by POTUS and Pentagon, but first conclusion is clear--they know their technology is good only against weak, badly trained, third world militaries. One thing Syrian AD has now, which all those "integrated" and "modern" systems from 1950s and 1960s in Iraq or in Yugoslavia didn't have is serious EW (ECM and ECCM) capability which Russia obviously provides for Syria today. Once this factors in--it becomes clear that once AD, such as Syrian one, gets its personnel properly trained and AD properly integrated with modern detection-acquisition-targeting complex it becomes deadly and reduces strike options only to stand-off weapons. Entrance of any manned aircraft into the range spells doom for aircraft and, possibly, for pilot. 

US can not and doesn't know how to lose--it will double down to overcome embarrassment and knowing clearly who Donald Trump is today, we will see escalation. But let's still give credit where credit is due--to Mad Dog Mattis and to Joseph Dunford who did all they could to keep insane dwellers of the mad house, aka The White House, from unleashing the WW III. At least not yet. For now let the sewer known as US media percolate triumphalist BS. 

P.S. Yes, it seems S-300 latest versions will be now delivered to all Russia's allies. 

48 Hours Expired, Still Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock...

Meanwhile Russia sent yet another signal that she is not intimidated--delegation of Russia's Duma MPs departed to Syria to see President Assad (in Russian). Putin spoke with Bibi too in the last couple of hours and mighty Israel stated that she will not allow Iran to get a foothold in Syria (in Russian). It is, obviously, not for Israel to decide but when she has whole US Congress and White House working for her, sure, one may lose a bit of reference points. Hey, even POTUS serves Israel. Well, Israel and Saudi Arabia, of course. 

Trump, obviously, enters now this pre-action pause which is a very tricky thing--the more he delays the action the worst it becomes for him and establishment. Can Pentagon reverse his actions? I don't know who really runs affairs in America anymore, but, hey Mattis has a chance to show himself a good professional and a sensible politician, even a statesman. Those promised by Trump 24-48 hours have long since expired. It is also remarkable that suddenly Sarah Sanders, a spokeswoman for White House just now announces at her briefing that POTUS actually is looking for means other than missile strikes to deal with Syria (in Russian from Ria). Moreover, she stated that the decision hasn't been made yet. 

The inevitable question is this--who in their mind would want to deal with this kind of people? As someone on Colonel Lang's blog asked about Putin and I responded, I will repeat it here. As famous Russian military journalist Vlad Shurigin correctly stated prior to Russia's presidential elections on March 18, Russia was not electing a President, she was electing a Supreme Commander. This is not the first time when Russia did it, tacitly or through democratic procedure. On the US side, however, I may throw in a theory--Trump should understand that starting any confrontation with Russia he may actually accelerate greatly the end of his presidency even if the world in general, and US in particular survive this ordeal. Impeachment? Possibly. But who knows how he may be removed against the background of the threat of the escalation to a nuclear threshold. In the end--nobody made him twit this morning what could be the abrupt end of what remains of Pax Americana.  Zug Zwang, tick-tock, tick-tock.

Two Can Play The Game.

It is a really news-worthy Monday. Now US accuses Russia of supplying Taliban with weapons again. Of course, no evidence (it is normal now in US) of such activity was provided. 

At a news conference with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis at his side, Gen. John Nicholson, the American commander in Afghanistan, wouldn't provide specifics about Russia's role in Afghanistan. But said he would "not refute" that Moscow's involvement includes giving weapons to the Taliban.

I already wrote about this nonsense here. But Mattis response was pure gold:

"We'll engage with Russia diplomatically," Mattis said. "We'll do so where we can, but we're going to have to confront Russia where what they're doing is contrary to international law or denying the sovereignty of other countries." 

It all begins to look and sound like bad joke or... a descent into a complete madness. But if one to follow the logic (or lack thereof) of this whole panopticon one may recall what General Gromov and Dmitry Rogozin wanted from US in 2010:

 A “successful end” to the operation in Afghanistan will not come simply with the death of Osama bin Laden. The minimum that we require from NATO is consolidating a stable political regime in the country and preventing Talibanization of the entire region.  

I have some news for Mattis: US lost the war in Afghanistan (but he knows it, he is a smart man) and the US will not do anything anymore other than provide some support for current Kabul government on the battlefield which increasingly begins to be dominated by Taliban. The task of stabilizing the region will fall largely to Russia and Russia doesn't give a crap about "human rights" and "democracy" in Afghanistan. Not any more. If it will take a grim dictator and fundamentalist to tame Afghan violence and drugs--so be it. But if Russia would have really supplied Taliban with weapons I can guarantee that the "evidence" (same level of "reliability" as evidence of Russia tampering with US elections) would have been presented long ago and the operational situation in Afghanistan would have been much much worse than it is today.  

Nothing lasts forever and we observe today how US global military-political power fades--it is an objective process and the only things which can be done about it is to:

1. Arrest it or slow it down;
2. Provide for more or less "soft" landing, which means avoiding global conflict.   

United States is faced with the necessity to leave Afghanistan now, US resources turned out to be finite--a 20 trillion dollar debt is a dramatic testament to this. Trump Administration already now is faced with hugely difficult choices which it has to make in order to avoid a global conflict and with it the end of the United States. After the tragedy of 9/11 the United States received an unprecedented political capital and mandate, she also received an enormous sympathy and support. She squandered this capital and now has to live with the consequences. In the end, it was not Russian idea to arm mujaheddin and let the genie out of the bottle. One reaps what he sows. 
     

"Freedom-fighters"

P.S. Taliban is identified in Russia's law as a "terrorist organization". The only contacts Russia has with Taliban are related either to the terms of surrender (changing sides) or to warnings about not doing completely stupid things.