They Begin To Suspect Something. Like...Again.

Like now. 

Took them merely a few decades to figure that out. Congressional Research Service prepared the overview of economic sanctions in January this year for 117 Congress and, boy, they finally figured Russia's game out, LOL.

The economic impact of a sanction also depends on the extent to which the target is able to circumvent or adapt to the sanction. The Maduro government of Venezuela, for example,has sought closer economic ties with China and Russia in the face of U.S. sanctions, and the Russian government used its sizeable foreign exchange reserve holdings to support sanctioned firms and focused on creating domestic industries.It is more difficult for the target to find alternative markets when sanctions are imposed multilaterally than when sanctions are imposed unilaterally.

The report is hilarious in a "no shit" or "the hell you say" sense and if Russia's "secret" game (which is in the open since who knows when) was finally "revealed", conclusions like that should give those geniuses in Congress a pause.

Sanctions also impose economic costs for the United States, because they restrict economic transactions in which U.S. individuals and firms would otherwise engage. U.S. business groups have at various points raised concerns that sanctions harm American manufacturers, jeopardize American jobs, and, when sanctions are implemented unilaterally, cede business opportunities to firms from other countries. U.S. sanctions also risk retaliatory measures by the target. For example, the Alaskan seafood industry and Washington State apple and pear producers were negatively affected by Russia’s retaliatory ban on agricultural imports from countries imposing sanctions. Policymakers have expressed longer-term concerns that extensive use of U.S. sanctions that restrict access to the U.S. financial system could erode the status of the U.S. dollar in the global economy. Since World War II, the U.S. dollar has been widely used in international economic transactions, and the United States incurs economic benefits from its widespread use (including lower borrowing rates). The United States has increasingly leveraged the role of the U.S. dollar for foreign policy goals, including restricting access to the U.S. dollar and financial markets for Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Many foreign governments targeted by U.S. financial sanctions and their economic partners are increasingly exploring and creating ways to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar. If countries pivot from the U.S. dollar to alternative currencies, the United States could face higher borrowing costs, among other economic effects. 

Serious countries do pivot away from US Dollar and the dedolarization continues to accelerate even as I type this. Even this fresh graph doesn't tell the whole story, albeit it gives a good hint. 

In related news--shooting oneself in the foot hurts like hell. Committing a suicide also has an adverse effect on one's health etc. Make no mistake, all kinds of BS ratings "proving" that the US Dollar is a coolest most widely-used currency will continue to be concocted in the currency-speculation alternative economic universe in the US, but facts are irresistible things, no matter how one tries to spin them:

The US dollar has lost to the euro as the number one currency for global transactions for the first time in nearly eight years, said the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT). According to Bloomberg citing monthly SWIFT data, the last time the euro was in the number one spot was February 2013. 

Moreover, alternatives to SWIFT, let alone mutual trade in respective currencies, are already in place and this cannot be changed other than by the means of a global war. Does the 117th Congress want to try it and see what happens? Russia cannot be contained in any way: economically, financially, let alone militarily. China? Well, the window of opportunities to do so militarily--economically China dwarfs the United States--is closing really fast and if actual military alliance between Russia and China is formed, the United States will simply be pushed to the periphery of global economic activity, most of which is already concentrated in Eurasia. EU, in this sense, is a secondary matter--it will either disintegrate, with some countries choosing economic monster in the East, or it will continue to sink in its own cesspool of shrinking manufacturing and bizarre totalitarian cults ranging from alternative energy to alternative gender (and mental) composition. Simple as that. If they sink, they can go to hell, as Lavrov so explicitly told Borrell on his recent visit to Russia for EU to go fuck itself. Now, those butt-hurt Europeans contemplate how could this barbaric and backward Russia tell EU to go fuck itself. 

The European Union's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, has said that Russia does not want a dialogue with Europe and has refused to rule out further sanctions on Moscow over the treatment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny. In a statement on Twitter, Borrell said that his visit to Russia "highlighted that Russia does not want to seize the opportunity to have a more constructive dialogue with the EU. This is regrettable and we will have to draw the consequences," he said.

Yes, Russia and EU are "drifting apart" because  Russia doesn't want to deal with a sanctimonious freak-show which Europe has become. If EU will impose new sanctions on Russia, so be it. They were told this on many occasions. Russia will simply counter-sanction EU and will throw more EU businesses out of Russia. Simple as that. I have been a proponent of a new Iron Curtain now for many years--culturally Europe is done and has no future whatsoever and the rotten corpse of once proud Western Civilization poisons the atmosphere. Russia is not into business of saving those who do not want to be saved. Minimal economic activity should be maintained, possibly some bi-lateral exchange, but the rest--Europe is a moral and economic leprosy-afflicted space which has to be isolated and contained. In fact, the events of the last few weeks give a good indication that the process of containment is ongoing. Boy, I wish I knew Chinese (Mandarin) to be able to read Chinese media about what Wang Yi and Lavrov discussed a few days ago, granted it is available for Chinese press. I begin to suspect something... wink, wink.

Mathematical View.

An extremely interesting comment of professional Swiss (I believe) mathematician Paul Schmutz Schaller on my two books at Saker's blog. Paul starts with this intro: 

In some sense, this article is a comment on some aspects of Andrei Martyanov’s two books „Losing Military Supremacy: the Myopia of American Strategic Planning“ (2018) and „The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs“ (2019). I am not aiming at discussing these excellent books...My interest here is the content of these books which is related to mathematics. In this regard, here is a try to condense some of Martyanov’s writing into simple theses:

1) The power of a nation very much depends on its military strength.

2) Military strength is a complex thing, depending on the strength of the whole society: its economy, its culture, its scientific level, its historical experiences.

3) Mathematics are crucial for the military strength, not only for the production of sophisticated weapons and military technology, but also for strategic planning and for warfare.

4) Western societies in general and the USA in particular suffer from a lack of education in mathematics and this is an important reason for their decline.

5) Without understanding mathematics in relation to military, one cannot understand military strength, nor geopolitical developments.

I agree with Paul's distillation, so to speak, of what I am writing about.  But Paul disagrees with me on the 5th point and, I agree, it is at least a debatable one--in a sense of being worthy of a separate discussion. But it is what Paul writes after this which is of a particular and great interest. He makes some extremely important observations, while giving a short retrospective of mathematics development throughout human history: 

Mathematics in the West are declining. This is may-be not yet visible when regarding some top Western universities; they still are quite attractive for mathematicians from other countries due to their prestige and their money. The decline concerns above all the Western societies as a whole. They have become quite hostile towards mathematics. Increasingly, mathematics are just seen as a necessary evil. Typically, in the film „Salt“ (USA, 2010), starring Angelina Jolie, the latter says: „I hate math.“ Could you imagine this in a Chinese, Iranian, Indian, or Russian film?

And Paul observes shift of mathematics to Asia. I agree--this, indeed, is taking place. Very little doubt that mathematics made the West, with Western society exploding with mathematics genius in the last few centuries, with the West, later, changing the whole world, but today balance changes. Oswald Spengler's famous The Decline of The West  takes a very close look at the mathematical thinking of civilizations and, in the words of one academic observer, defines Spengler's claim in the next words:

that similarities may be discerned in the style of mathematics, art and music developed by a particular High Culture – looking first at his discussions of the Ancient Greeks and how their thought-processes differed from that of Western Europeans,as well as from the Persians and Arabs. An attempt is then made to extend Spengler's theory to the Ancient Egyptians (referring to their Rhind Papyrus)and to the Sino-Japanese (by appealing to their 'Sangaku' mathematical art-forms). Finally, it is suggested that we may already be able to identify certain distinctive features and characteristics of the recently born Russian Culture.

Speaking of Russia. Already in Spengler's times (and that is almost a century ago), some feature of Russian high culture started to emerge, as David L. McNaughton continues, and I quote him in full:

Spengler (1922, pp. 192-196, and 1934) believes that a new High Culture has recently crystallized in Russia. He even attempted to discern and analyse the nature and character of its 'soul'. For example, he maintained that the Russian death-impulse "is an expressing and expanding of self (Sichentäussern) till 'it' in the man becomes identical with the boundless plain itself... That 'All are responsible for all' ... is the metaphysical fundament of all Dostoyevski's creation. Mystical Russian love is the love of brothers under equal pressure all along the earth., ever along and along" (Spengler, 1922, p.295 note 1). Spengler may not be completely correct in asserting that the 'prime symbol' of the new Russian Culture is the infinite plain. If so, he can perhaps be forgiven – because he made that assessment one hundred years ago. But if he is right that another 'Cultural organism' has indeed been born, then new discoveries and developments in mathematics, art and music will blossom there. On that assumption, can we try and guess what sort of mathematics might emerge?Without doubt, Russian mathematicians have already made prominent contributions in that field. In particular, Grigori Perelman should be highlighted for demonstrating the truth of the Poincaré Conjecture. In 2006, the world-renowned journal “Science” recognized his achievement as the scientific ‘Breakthrough of the Year’ – the first time such a tribute had ever been accorded in mathematics (Mackenzie, 2006). For his work, Perelman was also awarded the highly prestigious Fields Medal – but refused it. After interviewing him, John Ball (outgoing president of the International Mathematical Union) remarked: "He has a different psychological make-up, which causes him to see life differently" (BBC News, 2006). Earlier, Perelman had confirmed the Soul Conjecture with (what Wikipedia describes as) "an astonishingly concise proof". His two discoveries are important insights and landmarks in the development of mathematical topology (which may be defined as the study of spaces and their connectivity). So perhaps the new Russian mathematics will specialise in this topic? For example, eventually it might produce a comparatively simple proof of the Four Colour Theorem (explained by Appel and Haken, 1977). If the Spenglerian 'timetable' is correct, Russian art, music and mathematics will attain their zenith (after a few more centuries) during what he calls their 'summertime' – so it is probably too soon to know how exactly they will manifest themselves. Despite that, it is worth asking whether the Russian ability and love for the game of Chess is evidence that a new cultural soul is unfolding in that landscape. Each piece on the chessboard commands or controls only certain squares, i.e. a 'subspace' of the whole. And game-strategy assesses how the power or potential of each piece can best coordinate and interact with the others. In a different field, there might be grounds for arguing that it was no coincidence that the Periodic Table of the Elements was first conceived in a Russian mind – that of Dmitri Mendeleyev – rather than a Western one.

It is a very loaded but not incorrect conclusion. The article by McNaughton was written in 2016. You all know what happened in March, 2018. Since then, this is what has been dictating the logic of geopolitical shift on unprecedented scale and what is effectively keeps the world from sinking into one huge global conflict. Math had everything to do with it, math and physics, with physics being, in effect, a mathematical description of the natural world. Does math define a high culture? Absolutely: music is very mathematical, so is architecture and, of course, so is technology. But that is my main point--only nations with high culture can produce what Russia produces today. Far from military technology alone, breakthroughs in such field as aerospace, nuclear energy, new types of propulsion, new materials, among many, have already happened or are about to happen. This happened because of the way the world is viewed by Russians--in a very mathematical way. In the end, Russia awards degrees in Military Science which is same higher math projected at the stochastic world of the warfare.     

As Paul Schaller concludes:

Coming back to the question of the power of a nation, we have to refine. This power is not only related to the present level of mathematics, but also to the attitude with respect to mathematics. In this regard, two items are obvious for everybody. First: The Western empire(s) are fading away. Second: Asia in general and East Asia in particular have already a huge advantage over Western countries.  

Difficult to disagree: both in Russia and China mathematics is a secular religion of sorts, because there is clear understanding that mathematics and future are inseparable. Empirical evidence supporting this is overwhelming. But I wrote on this issue not for once myself, it is pleasant to read similar thoughts from a professional mathematician. 

In other news, meanwhile, Russian government is buying back all shares held by Russia's Central bank in Russia's main consumer bank SberBank (in Russian). Do you smell that smell(c)? Ahh, poor-poor dear German Gref, the CEO of SberBank, the boy always complained that Russia is a nation-downshifter  and, in general, is very backward. Well, I am sure Gref's "expertise" will be in demand among people attending Davos forums. But as Russian government stated--Russia's Central Bank having shares of SberBank is a, and I quote, conflict of interests. Take this news any way you want, but paraphrasing Mr. Samuel Clemens (aka Mark Twain)--the reports of death of Russia's financial sovereignty have been greatly exaggerated.    

Another One Bites The Dust (c).

Oops, here comes Johnny! As Turkey goes, so goes Azerbaijan, which still is a complex issue on its own. 

(Bloomberg) -- President Ilham Aliyev said Azerbaijan won’t seek closer integration with Europe, which he accused of discriminating against Muslims and undermining his country’s traditional values. “Where shall we integrate?” Aliyev said in a rare public criticism of the West in a speech to university students and teachers in the capital, Baku, on Tuesday. “Shall we integrate with those who are saying ‘Stop Islam’? Shall we integrate to a place where there’s no difference being made between men and women? We definitely shall not.” Aliyev’s remarks mark a departure from the national security strategy he approved in 2007, which said energy-rich Azerbaijan targets membership in European and Euro-Atlantic alliances. The majority Muslim but secular nation of 10 million people sandwiched between Iran and Russia forged close political and economic ties with the U.S. and the European Union after declaring independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991. The president’s speech “was his acknowledgment of the failure of secularism and western values in Azerbaijan,” prominent Azeri journalist Khadija Ismayil wrote on Facebook. Ismayil, who’s known for investigative reports into Aliyev’s undeclared family businesses, was sentenced to prison in 2015 and freed the following year after international criticism of her detention and trial.

First, let's start with debunking the point about "failure of secularism". Oh, please! Ilham Aliyev had absolutely different thing in mind. For starters, even in Soviet times it was a normal occurrence for some deceased Party bureaucrat to be buried in Muslim tradition, with Mullah present and all that. Azerbaijan was always a Muslim country but initially Russia imperial and, later, Soviet rule provided an extremely serious boost to Azerbaijan's development which fused with a rather rich and colorful Azerbaijani culture. Among all former Soviet Caucasus republics, now independent states of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan in 20th century was most genuinely multi-cultural place, with the capital of Baku being an extraordinarily cosmopolitan city with very large, almost equal in size,  Azerbaijani, Russian and Armenian diasporas populating it, with yet another smaller diasporas of Jews, Germans and heirs of Russian Molokans constituting the rest. That gave the rise to a unique recognizable identity and even lingo of Bakunians (Bakintsy) who were Bakunians first, and Azerbaijani, Russians or Armenians second. In other words, Azerbaijan has a vast and, with the exception of tragedies of connected to the collapse of the USSR, positive experience of true integration. Enough to mention that even today a huge share of Azerbaijani public schools teaches students in Russian language, despite Russian diaspora in Azerbaijan dwindling to few tens of thousands after the collapse of the Soviet Union. 

Just to demonstrate. Here is 2018 graduation ceremony in Baku's school # 145 (my wife graduated it)--it is still school with in depth physics-mathematics curriculum. Pay attention--all of it is in Russian, and in fact repeats to the smallest detail almost Soviet, and, in general, modern Russian graduation traditions. 

Same goes for higher education and with many Azerbaijani youth doing their higher ed. in Russian. So, Aliyev's speech is not about "secularism" or its "failure"--quite opposite. Ilham, who himself is a graduate of famous MGIMO and a son of possibly the only one man in Politburo who could stop the collapse of the USSR, Geidar Aliyev, knows where the actual Islamization stops. Here is Ilham's wife and mover and shaker of Aliyev's business, Mehriban Aliyeva, with Putin four days ago during inter-regional forum in Moscow. 

I dare to say, that Azerbaijan's moves are precisely against talibanization and recognizing the fact that, especially after Turkey's moves, it will be a traditional, and dear to many good honest hard working Azerbaijanis, Moscow (and Russia in general) with who the fates of their country lie. I deliberately omit here the issue of Nagorny Karabakh--it is a separate and a very complex topic on its own--but the number of Azerbaijanis living and doing business in Russia is large and yes, by far not all of them are selling vegetables and fruits at the markets, nor are involved in the ethnic organized crime--an inevitable "benefit" of multi-ethnic state. Many are excellent doctors, engineers, people of art and culture and, in general, well-educated and highly socially adaptable people. In the end, it is all about geopolitics. For Azerbaijan, the West is far, Russia, on the other hand, is a few hours of drive north from Baku to Dagestan, same goes for Iran to the South. Plus, Baku commands serious reserves of oil and gas, plus, so called modern Western "values" are equally rejected in Moscow and Baku. 

But even more importantly, Azerbaijan is a pivot state of the region and, speaking in a very simple language, she gets it one way or another if the "reputable" (/sarc) United States decide to commit suicide and go for Iran's jugular. There are 20+ million ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Northern Iran, including in the province symptomatically called Azerbaijan. Boy, talk about the complexity of the region. Of course delusional "opposition" people in any nation sound all the same and read from the same script written either by Soros or CIA and they do sound stupid:

The president is “quite sincere” in his opposition to European integration because “Europe means democracy, free elections, rule of law, universal human rights and social welfare,” Altay Goyushov, an opposition politician who heads the Baku Research Institute, a think tank in the city, wrote on Facebook. “Aliyev wants to see a medieval monarchy in Azerbaijan,” he said.

That's the definition of being delusional. Especially when one talks about "democracy" in Europe which is run by corrupt homicidal EU bureaucracy and is dominated by political parties whose agendas are anything but "human rights" driven and have very little to do with "free" elections. In general, it all comes down to who will have better economic prospects with all that follows politically in the mid to long term future. It is Eurasia--pretty much no-brainer. As for Azerbaijani Armed Forces, guess who is in charge and what institutions many of them graduated from?  Well, including my naval academy. Those people are not stupid, they can count and plan. They also can assess geopolitical situation and deduct power balance. I am sure they do it professionally and do identify trends well. Talk, especially about "human rights" and "democracy" (not to mention "rule of law") is cheap. The only things that matter are actions and things that work. Europe doesn't. So, it is not about Islam, or, rather, not about it primarily. It is about pure national interest and elites seeing future for themselves. Prosperity usually produces stable political situation, especially when one has to consider what neighborhood he (she) resides in. And, frankly, I would (and probably will, inshallah;)) rather visit Baku than Paris or Madrid.  Beaches are good and the food is out of this world--I know, I was born there. In a sense that I have a slight idea about how it works.

   

Here are some additional views of modern day Baku. A warning, do not try to compare it with glitzy and tawdry Arab Gulfie newbie playgrounds such as Qatar or UAE.      
                                       

Where Germany Still Survives.

From the get go--let's drop this "far-right" moniker in relation to Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. They are NOT "far-right". AfD is your classic nationalist party, which, against the background of Germany's insane suicidal politics professed by her traditional parties, looks almost alien. They are. For brainwashed, emasculated and culturally "enriched" by rape, lawlessness, gender-bending and suffocated by PC Western parts they seem too "extreme". They are not, they might well be the last vestige of Germanness. Unsurprisingly, AfD soars in what used to be GDR (DDR).    

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has received a groundswell of support in Eastern Germany, leading in polls just weeks before regional elections in three states. Support for major parties is at a historic low.In an outcome sure to unnerve Germany’s more conventional politicians, a series of polls conducted in June and July has demonstrated that the anti-establishment force has moved to the fore in the former Eastern Bloc territory, where they enjoy steady public backing – all ahead of the crucial regional elections, two of which are scheduled in about a month’s time.By contrast, the heavyweights of German politics – Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their coalition partners in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) – are facing what might be called a near collapse of popular support in the same eastern regions. In the latest poll conducted by the Emnid Institute, AfD picked up 23 percent of the vote in the five East German states, narrowly beating out the CDU, which received 22 percent.

One may begin to wonder about Eastern Germany--ahh, sure, they are still not up to "speed" with allegedly more economically developed West, but they sure as hell still have a lot of real German culture and spirit surviving there--courtesy of the....drum roll...Soviet Union which, having East Germany under occupation, instead of promoting European "values" (ahem), was acting fully in accordance to Stalin's prophetic:"Hitlers come and go, Germany remains". West Germany, on the other hand, was completely emasculated and "enriched", especially by actively Islamizing it. 

Frankly, at this stage, I personally don't really give a damn about what may happen with Europe in the future, I simply gave up, and I leave it up to chance--Que sera, sera.  Europe is declining, it is easily visible, and in this sense will not be able to make right decision for its own survival. She will continue to be America's doormat, until the United States itself contracts (in progress now), but Germany is interesting in this case, since without Germany there is no Europe. I also do not believe in Germany's return as a global player, she fails in few crucial metrics for that (every European country does), but the fact that Germans at least are trying is indicative of a future configuration for (still larger) Eurasia. As America inevitably and visibly is fading away as a sole (self-proclaimed, mostly) global power, this configuration of political forces in Europe (or whatever will be left of it) will have huge significance for historic fates of what used to be known as Western Civilization.

Admiral Korolev About Russia's Navy.

As I stated not for once in the last several years--Russia is not interested in challenging US maritime dominance. There is simply no need to do that:

The Russian Navy doesn’t need to fight for a global sea control. The Russian Navy is not going to challenge the U.S. Navy’s global maritime dominance. The Russian Navy’s main task is to provide a reliable defense of Russia’s shores and avoid war by presenting a defensive and forbidding posture. The Russian Navy is an organic part of the larger military force of Russia, whose only concern is preventing a global conflict. In this sense, the Russian Navy is completely integrated into the Russian tradition of national security, which spreads across the wide spectrum of activities, encompassing diplomacy, coherent foreign policy, intelligence and military force—a set of security imperatives erroneously dubbed in the West “hybrid warfare.”

As famous Russian anecdote goes: no matter how many times Russians will assemble crib (or sowing machine in some versions), the result will always be the same--AK-74. Same with the Russian Navy, which can only exist as a Sea Denial force. As Russian Navy's Commander-In-Chief Admiral Korolev stated yesterday--non-nuclear strategic containment (deterrence) becomes Russian Navy's primary task and State Armament Program 2018-2027 reflects this in full. I already can hear sobbing and weeping of Russia's "navalists", especially those who never served a day on any naval ship and study military history from weapon systems' booklets handed out at arms exhibitions, or from (wrong) books, but Russia in this case acts precisely as she should. 

It is understandable that building aircraft carriers, and I mean Russian version of CVNski, in their opinion, is the only way to go since, again--in their opinion, this is the only way to have an "ocean-going fleet". This whole Russian "ocean-going fleet" fetish, which implies that Russia doesn't have one, on their part is a good sign of their lack of education on serious operational matters. Indeed, how can the Navy which has advanced nuclear submarine (both SSGNs and SSBNs) component which deploys regularly to the.... ocean be considered non-ocean-going fleet is beyond my feeble mind, but what do I really know. 

1. Even today Russia's Navy is an "ocean-going" fleet is one considers a very simple fact that it goes there in a manner which perfectly suits current Russian naval necessities. Indeed, can Russian Navy send ships to the ocean? Of course it can. Such as many deployments of Russian ships recently to this very "ocean". Such as this one. I will abstain here from speculating on how many Russian subs are currently on combat patrol in Arctic, Atlantic and Pacific oceans but this IS what is called an "ocean-going".  Russia does have number of those subs on patrol as I type this.

2. Korolev, however, does mention building of a Green Water Navy, which, by definition Russian Navy already is. Of course, the "thing" in this world of military lingo and generalizations is a Blue Water navy. That is the navy which can do, among other things, a global "projection of power". The question in this case is this: does Russia need such a global "power projection"? Answering this question competently is a must if one wants to remain well-grounded in operational reality. The answer is not as simple as it may seem. It must be nuanced. Regional? Certainly, such as a Mediterranean, as events in Syria have shown, but globally? Does Russia need "power projection" against Kongo? New Zealand? Absolutely not.

3. Yet, as Paul Atreidis's strategic dictum goes: "one who can kill a thing, controls a thing"(c). Russia builds the Navy capable to kill any navy in the world. This is Containment 101. This task is on several orders of magnitude more important for Russia than any "power projection" capabilities, which come a very distant second in the current global transformation the world is going through. The only difference in this unfolding reality is HOW FAR from Russia's shores will Russian Navy be able to destroy aggressor's navy?

As it stands now and as it projects itself to 2020-2022 Russian Navy's capability, augmented by other forces' capabilities, a reliable Exclusion Zone, or No-Go zone, will extend (very roughly, of course) up to 3000 kilometers (1620 nautical miles) from Russia's shores. It will be at this distance at which operations of heterogeneous forces (submarines, surface ships, patrol and missile-carrying aviation with its fighter escorts) will be able to deliver a salvo of missiles which will destroy any naval force deploying for attack on Russia. All this will be done in purely conventional (non-nuclear) framework. I described those A2/AD "bubbles" not for once. Those bubbles are not getting weaker or shrink, to the contrary--they are getting stronger and expand. While Admiral Richardson's statement:

Russian Bastion-P supersonic anti-ship missile systems are not impenetrable... Nor do formidable Russian... air defense systems such as the S-400... necessarily render the airspace they protect into no-go zones for the carrier air wing.  

May be somewhat true, under some very rare specific circumstances, introduction of hyper-sonic missiles renders the whole concept of a classic US Navy's CVN and its battle group completely obsolete. In essence a classic dichotomy of Shield vs Sword is not valid anymore. Modern hyper-sonic weapons will penetrate any air and missile defense of any modern navy and they will sink or kill a mission with very high probability. Those salvos will be launched from the underwater, ground and air and they will get through. This is a new paradigm in the naval warfare and it overturns completely any geopolitical designs American neocons had on Eurasia. This is a tectonic shift of historic proportions, but about this--later.