Ain't This Ironic, Eh?

 Yes, this is what normal civilized people do. 

HELSINKI, February 27. /TASS/. Russian icebreakers are providing assistance to several cargo ships stuck in the ice in the Gulf of Finland and in the territorial waters of Finland. This was reported by the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency. According to the agency, Finnish ships "are being assisted in the framework of international cooperation with Russian icebreakers" in accordance with the usual winter practice of navigation. Also, at the specific request of the agency, the Russian icebreaker can provide assistance to a cargo ship in the territorial waters of Finland.

Yes, this was supposed to be Europe of normal people. Not anymore. Western ruling class has something else in store for Europeans. Here is the news of a similar nature but ... 

The icebreaker “Neuwerk” was moved from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea to clear a channel to the frozen LNG terminal in the port of Mukran. Now, the “Neuwerk” has broken down due to a technical defect, causing the critical bottleneck to reappear. As a result, the LNG tanker “Minerva Amorgos” is still unable to dock at the terminal, as the channel to the port of Mukran remains impassable due to a thick layer of ice. The LNG tanker has been waiting in the ice-free zone in front of the LNG terminal for more than a week. 

Here is the map of Baltic Sea's ice situation from a few days ago. 

Here is a maneuver by forces by Russia. 

A heavy freeze in the Gulf of Finland forces Russia to move two icebreakers, among them the nuclear-powered Sibir, away from Arctic waters. On February 12, the Sibir entered Norwegian waters and subsequently sailed southwards on a course for St. Petersburg. In its wake followed the diesel-engined icebreaker Murmansk. It is freezing cold midwinter and the sea ice lies thick and heavy over Arctic waters. Ships are struggling to reach their destinations along Russia’s northernmost coasts. Nevertheless, Russia is redirecting a powerful nuclear icebreaker from the Arctic to the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Finland. Only a few days ago, the icebreaker was busy with icebreaking in the Gulf of Ob and Kara Sea. For most of January it was engaged in escorting a convoy of vessels to and from the east Arctic settlement of Pevek. On February 18, the Sibir arrived in St. Petersburg, where it immediately engaged in assisting ice-trapped vessels.

This is a great point for Russia's ice-breakers ship-builders and only buttresses Russia's "more is better" ice-breaking ideology. That is why coming of this:

Creates a panic today: 

NATO's falling behind in the race to build icebreakers, critical tools for a war in the Arctic. 

And for those who still need a reminder:

Speaking at the 6th International Arctic Forum, Likhachev said: "The volume of cargo has already amounted to tens of millions of tonnes with last year's record of nearly 38 million tonnes. Our northern deposits developers tell us to be prepared for hundreds of millions of tonnes ... now we need 11 icebreakers, which we already have (including eight nuclear icebreakers). We must move on to the next stage and plan 100 and 150 million tonnes and 15 to 17 icebreakers instead of 10 or 11. Therefore, we must construct them."

Do you see the pattern emerging? Recall--ah, hypersonic weapons are overrated. Ah, global warning will melt the ice soon. Ah ... That's what happens when your societies are run by lawyers, politicians with "degrees" in journalism and political "science", you know, by those know-it-alls who are dumb as stumps and have "egos larger than cathedral"(c). Hey, look at this guy. 

Yes, this is American general. And here is another clown:

You cannot explain to him what REAL integrated and networked air defense is. Remember closing sequence of first Matrix? It is all about OODA loop and the speed of decisions, their frequency which defines how you defeat an enemy. 

But yes, Ben Hodges needs to stay the hell away from AC in any transportation, because ... well, you know. 

These guys are constantly on prowl ... Boo! 

"history repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce"(c) Karl Marx. 

A-ha, Arctic On His Mind.

Donald Trump issued memorandum today and it is an interesting one. 

The Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Commerce, and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), shall lead a review of requirements for a polar security icebreaking fleet acquisition program to acquire and employ a suitable fleet of polar security icebreakers, and associated assets and resources, capable of ensuring a persistent United States presence in the Arctic and Antarctic regions in support of national interests and in furtherance of the National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy, as appropriate.  Separately, the review shall include the ability to provide a persistent United States presence in the Antarctic region, as appropriate, in accordance with the Antarctic Treaty System.  The Secretary of Homeland Security and the Director of OMB, in executing this direction, shall ensure that the United States Coast Guard’s (USCG) Offshore Patrol Cutter acquisition program is not adversely impacted. 

First, let me introduce a disclaimer immediately. The United States IS an Arctic nation and she certainly has legitimate national interests in Arctic (Antarctic is a separate issue and is not a focus of this post), as long as she sees and considers interests of others in the region clearly. And here we are running into a slight problem. The US doesn't. It doesn't mean that arrangements cannot be made--in theory they can be, but only in theory and considering US history of thinking herself an exceptional and "indispensable" nation which is non-agreement capable, one can fairly clearly see a future flash point in Arctic, and you guessed it already, between Russia and the US. A reason is simple, not only Russia legitimately claims some really resources rich parts of Arctic, she, actually, can defend them and is exploiting them for her own gain. 

This doesn't mean that objectively the United States doesn't need the icebreakers. She surely does, and, depending on climate change and the retreat of the Arctic ice cap, one can make a case for one or another number of those icebreakers. But my issue here is different--who WILL build required number and, most importantly, quality ice-breaker fleet which will require primarily nuclear-driven ships of this type? Obviously, the United States Navy has an experience with the nuclear-powered ships, primarily its magnificent aircraft-carriers, but ice-breakers? That is a totally different approach to ship's design. Not to mention its deployment in the zones where said aircraft carriers do not venture into. Frankly, at this stage I am not sure that the United States is capable of creating something of this nature: 

Not to speak of a mammoth, almost 70,000 tons of displacement Lider-class nuclear ice-breaker whose program is already financed and the construction starts this year. And then, of course, there is this purely military issue. I do not want to go there yet, because the US objectively, as I stated above, is in need of a modern ice-breaker fleet, but color me pessimistic, I am not sure that the US will be able to create modern ice-breaker, let alone a whole fleet, which would satisfy the most important requirement of year-around operations, including in the deep ice. You may have heard that Russia uses lasers on her ice-breakers to break the ice. So, in this case the issue are not just, however complex, ice-breakers themselves but all those accompanying technologies, which the United States will need to develop. Here is where I have my doubts, even if to consider a very significant time-period for R&D which is 9 years, that the United States will be on time, on budget and on capability. But, I was wrong before. Having said all that: even a brief acquaintance with new National Security Strategy puts me in deep doubt that any of its objectives, at least in Arctic, will be achieved (once one deciphers all this pathos-ridden gobbledygook), least of all through ice-breaker fleet which doesn't even exist on paper yet.

Does Russia Really Want To Sell S-400 To Turkey?

No, I get it, selling S-400 to NATO member is both good money and good image. But knowing Erdogan who always tries to play his own game, trying to leverage whatever is handy, I am sure some people in Russia are having a blast just observing this whole bargaining back and forth between Turkey and the United States. Today top military guy for Europe, General Curtis Scaparrotti weighted on that: 

Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, head of U.S. European Command, said Turkey, a NATO member, should reconsider its plan to buy the S-400 from Russia this year or forfeit other future American military aircraft and systems. He said Turkey's use of the Russian surface-to-air missile defense system would be a threat to the F-35. His comments are the latest in a series of warnings the U.S. has made to Turkey over its plans to buy the S-400. The U.S. and other NATO allies have repeatedly complained about the purchase, saying it is not compatible with other allied systems and would represent a security threat. The impending purchase has aggravated already souring relations with Ankara, including tensions over the war in Syria. Scaparrotti said U.S. officials are currently in Turkey explaining the potential consequences of the S-400 purchase. He said his best military advice would be that the U.S. not follow through with the F-35 sale and not work with an ally that's acquiring Russian systems that can threaten one of the American military's most advanced technological capabilities. "It presents a problem to all of our aircraft, but specifically the F-35," he said.

Russians know damn well what Erdogan is doing and they have no illusions whatsoever about the possibility of Erdo doing a radical 180 and then refusing to buy S-400 AD complexes. But here is the catch--Turkey is at civilizational cross-roads. She always was there geographically, but geopolitics wise she is facing a dramatic choice between increasingly degenerating Europe and some little, like you know, global, shift to the East of Turkey where new economic and geopolitical configuration is being driven by Russia and China. Erdogan, as any man of Asia Minor respects power and everyone knows today that Putin is not only powerful, but he is demi-God who is capable to elect and control the President of the United States, while personally killing Skripals and threatening all true (that is American and UK) "democracies" and in general, the guy is almost omnipotent. Erdogan likes this, but the most important question here is F-35. 

No doubt, before failed coup against this very same Erdogan (and there are rumors that demi-God Putin actually helped Erdo in saving his life) there would have been very little chance for any Russian weapon system entering Turkish military mind and praising mantras to F-35 and its allegedly super-pooper technology would have been heard in Turkey everywhere. Today things are slightly more complex. Of course, the United States sells to its allies first of all well-packaged commercial product and only then a weapon system. F-35 is the case in point since behind, sometimes preposterous, claims abaout its capabilities it is rather very expensive mediocre plane. VLO, aka Stealth, today is primarily for the consumption of housewives and fanboys from all kinds of military hardware masturbatory discussion boards, plus for the purpose of scaring the shit out of some cardboard dictators in third or fourth world shithole satrapies and only if those have anything of value to be declared a danger to democracy. Reality is, modern radar and signal processing methods, such as data fusion, and technologies of serious air-defense systems, and S-400, even in its export version, is a damn serious weapon system, basically spelled the end for this comfortable self-deluded paradigm of trading combat capability for a alleged "invisibility" and few kilometers, if that, of reduced range of detection and turned it into exercise in futility against modern integrated AD systems. I mean REAL weapon systems, not some commercial product.

I know Erdo knows this, plus, let's be honest--Turkey will never get F-35 technology transfer from the United States. Russia, hm, that could be an interesting arrangement, especially once one considers where this whole warfare business progresses in the last few years. Erdogan is not stupid, he is shrewd and he will continue to hold on to this bargaining lever for a long time, trying to milk both sides for everything they got, in his mind. But reality is, it is namely the United States which Erdo wants to milk, for now, before he will try to finally orient himself and Turkey somewhere. If he doesn't buy S-400, Russia loses nothing really, those batteries will be utilized elsewhere, but Turkey still will not get technology transfer for F-35 from the US. And here is this little detail. United States increasingly works as a runaway engine and considering who really runs US foreign policy (no, it is not Trump--let's face it, the guy is a real estate developer) there are absolutely no 100% guarantees that Turkey, at some point of time, will not become a possible target herself. One has to seriously consider this when reviewing some really bizarre facts of failed coup against Erdogan in 2016. And of the death of Russian Ambassador same year. F-35 is not a good defensive weapon, especially for the price. But, that is Turkey's conundrum and let her deal with it. I, honestly, do not see Turkey abandoning her NATO commitments but the whole affair is still very interesting to observe and, boy, do I recognize this whole methodology from my visits to so loved by me markets in Baku and elsewhere in Caucasus. 

Meanwhile, Scaparrotti draws this horrible picture of Russia, let the man talk:

The top U.S. military commander in Europe said Thursday that he is worried about the potential for new unrest in the Balkans, where there are signs that Russia is stepping up influence operations as the U.S. has lost focus on the region. “The area I am concerned about today is the Balkans actually,” U.S. European Command’s Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti said. “Russia is at work in the Balkans and we have kind of taken our eye off the area.” Scaparrotti, who testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee, said Russia is posing challenges in several regions. Areas of intense focus for the U.S. and NATO in recent years include the Baltics and Poland, where NATO has deployed more forces in its largest reinforcement since the end of the Cold War.In the Arctic, Russia is building up and could be in a positon to control northern sea transit lanes in a matter of three years, Scaparrotti said.

Surprisingly, he is telling the truth about Russia's Arctic ambitions, while, of course, asking for more-more-more money. But Russia, indeed, does have infrastructure, and, most importantly, largest and most powerful ice-breaker fleet in the world for controlling Arctic. Well, that plus Northern Fleet and other heterogeneous forces. Meanwhile Zvezda already is cutting metal for the third Aframax-class tanker, while building a colossal dry dock. 

Ships are coming, big time.