Saturday, July 9, 2022

Introspective on Clausewitz by Bernhard and Other Business.

Bernhard of MoA did a good write-up on Clausewitz and Kool Aid where he absolutely justifiably points out... well, the Kool Aid many of those military "experts" in the West are drinking. 

Read the whole thing, and keep in mind that from the get go numbers and ratios US and UK military "experts" from establishment media to all kinds of fraudulent neocon think-tanks such as ISW "used" (meaning, made up) have been a complete BS. Made up numbers of force correlations and losses which created a completely false narrative and picture of SMO. Now the time of reckoning has come and I will lie if I say that I don't enjoy this massive egg on faces of Petraeus, Keane and others, who are going now through a profoundly painful phase of a butt-hurt when facing reality, especially from the fact of parading themselves as not military professionals but media buffoons. Speaking of which. 

Another "product" of America's "military thought" is having an excruciating date with reality and unable to contain himself begins to fantasize about real war. I get it, he was the USAF big honcho and even SACUER, but something tells me that in Philip Breedlove we have not just acute case of Russophobia but a serious lack of grasp of how modern wars are conducted. 

Somebody, please, give Mr. Breedlove a hint, politely, not in a forceful manner, to take a look at the map and at the capabilities of Harpoon anti-shipping missiles. Being a former pilot himself, it is only natural for him to think about combat aviation to face such enemy as... Taliban or other weddings and civilian gatherings which USAF was bombing to smithereens for the last 20 years not facing any air defense systems, let alone serious enemy air forces. So, when he suggests to "attack" Crimean Bridge by Harpoons, he has to ask himself a question on HOW such an operation would look like. Will the attack be carried out by Ukie Air Force, or, rather, what's left of it? Will they want to meet Mr. Su-35 or Mr. MiG-31BM (in Russian) or such gentlemen as S-400, S-300V4 and S1 Pantsir which are present in industrial quantities inside Crimea and around Crimean Bridge? Evidently this idea never visited Breedlove. Including this teeny-weeny detail, the problem really, on how to integrate AGM-84 Harpoon with old Soviet Su-27s and MiG-29s

Or, maybe, Breedlove thinks about somehow sticking those Harpoons on some Ukie fishing boat and secretly moving it into the launch position in the middle of the Black Sea and hope and pray that the targeting provided by S-3 Sentry from international airspace will succeed in guiding those few (what 2-3?) Harpoons towards Crimean Bridge? Good luck fooling Russia's Black Sea Fleet and, again, Air Defense. But maybe, one tries to conclude, Mr. Breedlove thinks about launching Harpoons from some truck from Ukie controlled territory? Possible? Sure. There is one teeny-weeny issue here, though. The maximum range of Harpoon is around 220 kilometers--so good luck finding the territory from which such a salvo can reach Crimean Bridge. FYI--the distance between Ukie-controlled Nikolaev (for how long?) and the bridge is 390 kilometers--good luck reaching it. And I don't even start here any discussion on the issue of what "linear targets" are and what it will take, what salvo--remember, наряд сил, the number of Harpoons--of 200 kilogram warheads, to even take the section of the bridge out for a short period of time? 

Mr. Breedlove, certainly, graduated Air Command and Staff College, I am 100% positive that they taught there such issues as probabilities, "leakers", required force and operational planning, based on good grasp of own and enemy's capabilities, especially in terms of opposing air force and air defense. I am sure they teach that there. But somehow, as many other US top brass, Philip Breedlove decided to drink (or maybe excrete?) a Kool Aid and continue to embarrass not only himself but the whole America's top brass which has an astounding record of military failure, incompetence and BSing in the last 20 years, which is beginning to culminate in a much worse outcome than Afghanistan 1.0.   

As some sources (German Welt) report, the US and Europe are in secret negotiations trying to find a diplomatic resolution and to stop SMO (in Russian). Good luck with that--too little, too late. As in that famous Russian anecdote about two bear hunters. One of them finds the bear and shouts to his buddy:"Hey, I caught the bear!" His buddy responds:"Then, bring him here." The response is:"I can't, he doesn't let me." In related news:

WASHINGTON – A retired three-star general has been suspended from a $92-an-hour contract consulting the Army and is under investigation after posting a tweet that appeared to mock first lady Jill Biden on a hot-button social issue, according to the Army. Retired Lt. Gen. Gary Volesky, the Army's former top spokesman and recipient of the Silver Star for gallantry in Iraq, had been a "senior mentor," advising senior military officers, staff and students participating in war games and other military activities. Lt. Gen. Theodore Martin, commander of the Combined Arms Center, suspended Volesky pending the outcome of the inquiry, Cynthia Smith, an Army spokeswoman, told USA TODAY. On June 24, the first lady posted a tweet condemning the Supreme Court's decision overturning the constitutional right to abortion, which read in part: "For nearly 50 years, women have had the right to make our own decisions about our bodies. Today, that right was stolen." Volesky replied with his own tweet: "Glad to see you finally know what a woman is". His response represents a breach of decorum for a retired military officer and a foray into partisan politics by an official on the payroll of the Pentagon, which is supposed to steer clear of such matters, experts say. His tweet has been deleted.

Really? Breach of decorum? His comment was spot on and funny, because it was true. But what about Philip Breedlove, who suggests to bomb the object of civilian infrastructure (not to mention his ignorance of alternative through Kherson) and parades himself as a buffoon? I though that qualifies. But then again, we live in a strange world in which the combined West is run by petulant teenagers, who long ago lost any connection to strategic, operational and tactical reality and there is no way they can restore this contact.

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