As in Colonel Boyd's Loop: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. Our brilliant artist Veritas Semper Vincit summarized two "Os" (Observe and Orient) brilliantly in one painting:
We observe the financial Black Hole which consumes the United States, and huge parts of the world tied directly to US "finances", and the information from the fronts is getting, as is expected, even worse:
The U.S. Labor Department released fresh data on Thursday morning that showed the effect of the novel coronavirus on employment in the U.S. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits spiked to a record-breaking 6.648 million for the week ending March 28. Consensus expectations were for 3.76 million claims. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 3.307 million claims from 3.283 million. Prior to the week ending March 21, the previous record was 695,000 claims filed the week ended October 2, 1982.
My only question is this: how the heck did they manage to miscalculate that badly? What is consensus, anyway? Economics is not a precise science, nor is statistics related to such issues as unemployment, pandemic, political preferences or, for that matter, climate change. The attempts to stick all those processes into some mathematical models are merely feeble attempts to move beyond Observe into the Orient stage in the Boyd's Loop, aka the intelligent decision making framework. In this particular case, transition from Observe to Orient is very difficult, because most of those "models" do not really work. In fact, they never did. E.g. how many people in this statistics are really unemployed? Did anyone count people who simply dropped out of job search even BEFORE this shitstorm, and who never were counted in order to create an illusion that unemployment was relatively low. Here is how the dry percentage numbers of people who simply gave up on jobs translates into a number of actual human lives BEFORE the shitstorm, in 2019:
From about the late 1980s until 2008, the participation rate fluctuated around 66% to 67%. But after the Great Recession, the rate dropped more 3 percentage points over the next seven years and has barely budged since. The latest jobs report shows it’s at 62.8%.The 3 percentage points decline in participation translates to over 6 million people no longer in the labor force.
When taken into consideration, the actual unemployment rate before Covid-19 was very high, but corrupt US media wouldn't even try to communicate in facts in order to cover for Obama's disastrous economic and social policies. But when OODA is substituted with GIGO (Garbage In-Garbage Out) one would expect a disastrous outcome . In a statistical alternative universe of US exceptionalism across the board, from "low" unemployment numbers, to Trump losing out to Hillary in most "opinion" polls, to America's defeating Nazism almost single-handedly, there is a constant flavor of Voodoo about American statistical reality. This Voodoo constantly keeps people off balance, because they begin to exist simultaneously in several realities, akin to a bizarre and, I admit, addictive world of David Lynch's 3rd Season of Twin Peaks. I will yet to write on this cinematographic masterpiece.
Models in US "economy" do not work, they never did because they failed to account for a stochastic black hole of "irrational exuberance" which sucked into its event horizon last vestiges of common sense and rational behavior which insured that:
“Economic data in the near future will be not just bad, but unrecognizable,” Credit Suisse economists led by James Sweeney wrote last week. “Anomalies will be ubiquitous and old statistical relationships within economic data or between market and macro data might not always hold... There is no blueprint for the current shock, and uncertainty about the extent of contagion and the economic consequences is overwhelming.”
"Might not always hold"? Really? When did they hold? Can this "economist" even grasp the fact that most statistics and "models" Western neo-liberal economists worshiped are in the foundation in the West's dramatic decline? Covid-19 merely lifted the curtain hiding the ugly reality of the financial gang-rape of the productive forces and the wealth transfer from so many in the disappearing middle class into the hands of so few. And we didn't deal with the REAL inflation yet. When this tsunami hits, expect the unexpected...albeit, what am I talking about--"the unexpected", "the sudden", "not anticipated" have been wrecking havoc with US domestic and foreign policies for too long now to expect fast, hopefully, recovery. I do not even want to go into the worst case scenario: