Thursday, October 4, 2018

Lost In Translation?

Somehow, in the midst of all this FUBAR with US bureaucrats threatening Russia to start the war for whatever reasons, and the ongoing mass hysteria around new SCJ nomination, with new rape victims which Kavanaugh may have heard about once or saw on TV, "stepping out", one piece of real news got lost. It is huge:
See dynamics here. It doesn't stop there and it goes even further:
He also said the trade dispute was forcing China to seek soybeans from suppliers other than the United States, adding that China now bought most its soybeans from South America. 
Make no mistake, I get it, MAGA, Trump's "tactics" (capable to impress only sophomores from business schools) in "negotiating" the deals. But my question here, granted, now adjusted for Trump's foreign policy "accomplishments", such as allowing, in fact, initiating,  infestation of his own administration with lowest of the low neocons, is this: are they out of their freaking mind? Again, I get it, Trump thinks that he can convince China to "do better" in economic relations with US. Sure, but here is a very interesting dynamics from the other economic "front", this one is Russian.  

Even morons from US Treasury begin to suspect that this whole "trade war" and, especially, sanctions not only do not work--in fact, they hurt the US more and more. While giving its due to "evil, aggressive Russia" about to take over the world, US Treasury suddenly "discovered" for itself why US sanctions do not work on Russia. 
Obviously US Treasury must pander to such neocons as  Menendez and Corker, but behind this fluffy rhetoric is nothing more than admission of a failure and fear. In what sense, you may ask? Well, consider this: President Putin today is in India. After immense pressure on India the US applied in the last months the deal on S-400 is on and it is massive--worth $5 billion. Turkish intentions to buy the same system and even SU-35s in themselves could be a PR disaster for both US and NATO. Russia continues to press hard on immensely lucrative hi tech arms market with cheaper and better, sometimes much better, weapon systems than the US can offer. 

And then, of course, there is Russian energy--pipe gas, LNG, oil and nuclear--and here is the deal: the US is simply not competitive in this market. It is not even a debatable point, it is a hard fact of life and, like a victim caught in the quicksand, instead of limiting one's moves in order to slow down sinking, the US, it seems, is hell bent on destroying own economy and sinking the country with it.

It is a known fact today that US elites, with few exceptions, do not understand what IS US economy today, nor do they have understanding of its real size and capability. Russia, through the words of its high ranking representatives not for once expressed openly an intention to remove the US as number one on the arms market, now, China is not worried too much about energy issues with the US (to the US loss, of course) since massive energy infrastructure between Russia and China is nearing its completion. So, instead of finding compromises, Trump Administration thinks that it has wherewithal to be aggressive. Even if to adjust our train of though for alleged Trump's desire to extricate the US from "bad deals", one has to ask this question:
                               What about US Dollar?    
Well, even Bloomberg sensed something. As an example, Russia made dedollarization its official economic policy. And the issue is not anymore good ol' dilemma between weak or strong dollar which, supposedly, will make, in case of being weak, US products stronger while simultaneously providing for the US re-industrialization--this is not the case anymore because the world does not operate like this anymore. And while the bunch of ignorant US foreign policy "experts" pass the gas on how to preserve this "liberal world order", they should pay attention to the fact of real competitiveness of  the nations US declares trade wars and slaps sanctions on and why those nations are not enthused about this mythical "liberal world order", which is as liberal as I am Chinese. I have my very serious doubts that adequate assessment of reality by US elites is possible anymore and that is very bad news for America. I will make a review of commercial aerospace outlook soon--it is a wowser.   

UPDATE:  No comments are necessary.


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