A lot, and I mean a lot as in much larger of fictitious US GDP. Even if fictitious--still larger. See it in real rime.
Now, POTUS officially stated about the end of INF Treaty. A rather expected development:
The president said he wanted a new agreement with Russia and China, although he offered no details of how Moscow had violated the 1987 treaty. However, the US has previously accused Russia of breaking the pact in developing a cruise missile. “We are going to terminate the agreement and then we are going to develop the weapons,” Mr Trump said – unless a new agreement was forthcoming. The pact helps protect the US and its allies in Europe and the Far East. It prohibits the United States and Russia from possessing, producing or test-flying ground-launched cruise missiles with ranges between 300 and 3,400 miles.Mr Trump made the announcement on Saturday after a campaign stop in Elko, Nevada. Meanwhile, National Security Adviser John Bolton was headed to Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.
This clusterfvck of DJT's allegedly "national security" concept is a brainchild of people like Bolton and their obliviousness to what actually constitutes national security. The key is in Trump's own words highlighted in yellow above. No doubt, the United States will be able to develop something--enormously expensive, very long in development, for sure, and dubiously effective. It will be paid by printing more dollars. But here is the catch--somebody in White House wants to re-play Cold War 1.0 and "apply" a totally false idea that it was Arms Race which destroyed Soviet Union. It was not, but knowing how history is "learned" in US one shouldn't be surprised that many people believe this gospel and act accordingly. I have news for them--there will be no arms race. Or rather, there will be only one racer and that is the United States itself.
Russia is not going to participate. One doesn't participate in somebody's desperate attempts to provoke competition on their terms. Posturing is good but only to a certain point, truth is--the United States doesn't have wherewithal for fighting non-nuclear war with Russia and winning--US proper for the first time in its history is under direct threat of a conventional war being brought to its territory. Per nuclear? Well, considering who runs Washington today I wouldn't be surprised that they do exercise idiotic idea that they can fight and win in nuclear war. Sure. The issue, however, is--how things would be financed when de-dollarizations picks up its steam? Now get this--with each step US pushes Russia and China together. Russians are laughing all the way to the bank because of that and one can only guess what kind of military technology Russia will make available for China--after all latest toys China buys from Russia a full blown Russian versions with appropriate, not export, that is, capabilities. I don't think that anybody in Russia will provide China with things like Petrel or Poseidon, or Avangard, but those are obviously not the only weapons which Russia already deployed or is deploying, or is developing for that matter. As I stated not for once--Putin's address to Federal Assembly on March 1st was, and I quote:
Putin’s message was clear: “You didn’t listen to us then, you will listen to us now”. After that he proceeded with what can only be described as a military-technological Pearl-Harbor meets Stalingrad. The strategic ramifications of the latest weapon systems Putin presented are immense. In fact, they are historic in nature.
So, in terms of nuclear framework it doesn't matter what US will do--it is not defendable and most likely will remain so for a very long time. In reality US proper is not defendable anymore because the gap is not just qualitative, it is generational. In many respects this withdrawal is a "feel good" move to offset a rather unimpressive record of US geopolitical "achievements" in the last couple decades plus some attempts to make a cosmetic repairs to a crumbling edifice. That, plus standard bullying which is the only thing US elites are capable of doing. So, in the end, in realistic terms it doesn't really matter if INF Treaty survives or not, since the steps by US to surround Russia with missiles never stopped. Russians know that, that is why S-500 is already in IOC. More Iskanders with much longer range missiles will follow just as a precautionary measure. In reality, Russia is slowly reducing her defense spending and it has nothing to do with sanctions or pressures, zero. It is, in fact, a very well justified confidence in the end of the American "unipolar moment". In fact, most of the world is well aware of this moment's passing and they feel this is Washington and react hysterically.
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