Have You'Ve Been Under The Tank?

LOL Do you know what happens when F-1 explodes and you are sitting 20 meters from it? Right, you have fragments of it falling on you. Not biggie, really. Give Paul Joseph Watson the credit where the credit is due. 

Again, real war is a really, how to put it... real.

My Talking Head For March 24.

Me again.  

It is really difficult to explain the connection between conventional military power and economy, but I surely try my best. 

I Know It Hurts But...

NATO spreading the BS about "7,000 to 15,000 Russian troops killed" in Ukraine, such as this video (among many other) suggests:

They exhibit utter professional inadequacy of NATO's military people, because they both do not understand what modern combined arms operations are, plus they do not know--not surprising--military history of the 20th century. Again, I am not surprised. But why do I say so? Because I operate with data from archives and from professionals and here is an example. These are losses of the Red Army in the period from 13 August--22 September 1943 (41 day) during Donbass Strategic Offensive Operation. 

Here is the same table in more presentable view in Excel, the original is from famous Krivosheev's work Russia and USSR In The 20th Century Wars. 

Let me explain the significance of this table. Red Army fought for 41 day Wehrmacht's Army Group South which German "historians" humbly number in 400,000 soldiers, and provide preposterous number of their losses (no wonder then that the US cannot win a war, US Army took to heart "lessons" and "statistics" provided by former Nazis) but this group, actually, was lead by, indeed, world-class military leader Erich Von Manstein and it was still Wehrmacht of 1943 just fresh from its defeat at Kursk but still at its prime. I know it is impossible to explain to Western journo what correlation of forces means, especially using actual numbers and coefficients, but even taking the overall correlation of forces in July 1943 as roughly 1.65 to 1 in favor of the Red Army, we may look at the Manstein forces numbering roughly 600,000 troops supported by still capable and dangerous Luftwaffe and panzer forces.  

 

Yet, here we are, and for 41 day Red Army fights a massive and highly trained and motivated Wehrmacht and SS force under the conditions of absolute hell and ferocious combat and yet, these 1.7 million men clashing on the front of more than 360 kilometers. Yet, for all this insane ferocity the Red Army suffered KIAs on average: 66,166/41=1,613 KIAs daily. Now, in accordance to NATO, with Russian Army already denying VSU any mobility by the end of the first week and wiping out the Ukie Air Force from the skies largely in the same time frame. NATO (or whoever feeds this BS to Western MSM), Russians in 27 days were sustaining 15,000/27=555 KIAs daily. Let me put it this way--I would love to do the stream with any NATO general and discuss with him those "realities", how comes that Russian Army, losing a battalion a day KIAs (meaning 3 to 4 times wounded) and having a complete domination in space, skies, sea and ground (multi-domain thingy, you know) with already de facto destroyed VSU as an organized force, managed to accomplish all that? Hm, something doesn't add up in NATO's accounting. By now Russians should have disintegrated. 15,000 KIAs and roughly 50,000 wounded. Boy, those Ukies are good, really good. Wehrmacht circa 1941-43 looks in awe on VSU accomplishments. 

 

And the news, unlike a BS which Pentagon and NATO pours over the heads of illiterate Western media, Russian forces are already taking surrendering VSU troops as of today not in dozens or hundreds, no--the count is now in thousands. Details are here (in Russian) from people who are actually on the ground there. I am ON record--even when lying for the sake of propaganda, one has to lie, fvcking, professionally. Evidently they don't teach Operations and Tactics in whatever madras those (naturally anonymous) NATO "sources" attend. They cannot even construct a believable lie. I omit here all those butt-hurt military fanboys from YouTube who spew BS about actual shock and awe of Russia using hypersonic weapons (Kinzhal) in combat zone to a devastating effect produced in NATO's capitals. Of course, even POTUS had to comment on that, granted putting a risible spin on it, you know Russians are "running out of weapons", and because of that they use state-of-the-art weapons systems.

President Joe Biden said Russia used a hypersonic missile over the weekend.

"It's almost impossible to stop it," he said: "There's a reason they're using it."

I have a question, if hypersonic weapons are "all hype", why would POTUS specifically comment on Kinzhal's capability? Questions, questions. 

 

Meanwhile, Russian Armed Forces demonstrate what a salvo of supersonic P-800 Onyx (in Crimea) is at the land targets in 404. 

What a funny pesky missile this Onyx is, works equally good on surface and land targets. M=2.5 no less and the salvo runs itself from acquisition of targets to target distribution and even anti-air defense maneuvering and Counter-ECM. But yes, today Russian Army loses war in Ukraine especially dramatically, and I am sure because Russia loses this war so badly, she introduced resources-based Ruble and told the West to go and pound sand. What a strange, completely irrational behavior on Russia's part (wink, wink). Right?

Can We Finally Admit...

 ... that Western "economists" do not know what economy is, the only thing they know is speculation with currencies, period. Russia introduces de facto resources-based currency.  

Reuters) -The Russian rouble briefly leapt to a three-week high past 95 against the dollar on Wednesday in Moscow, before settling close to 100, after President Vladimir Putin said Russia would start selling its gas to "unfriendly countries" in roubles. The potential ramifications of that move, which Putin ordered his government to sort out in one week, could boost the Russian currency, with a host of European countries still dependent on Moscow for much of their energy supplies.

What a bunch of cretins. Wake the fvck up, imbeciles--it is not just about Ruble, it is about those proverbial counter-sanction from Russia everybody were so longing for. It is a death blow to US Dollar and EU. Here it is in Russian from Ria. In related news, Brent crude hit today $120.99, and rising. Well, no comments are needed, really...

Larry Johnson Answers Some Importnat Questions.

As always you can read Larry at his blog (see also the link in my blog-roll to the right of the screen) but from Larry's blessing I repost Larry's excellent review of issues raised by Mike Whitney in full. 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I gave a written interview to Mike Witney, who writes for UNZ.COM. Here it is:

Question 1– Can you explain to me why you think Russia is winning the war in Ukraine?

Larry C. Johnson– Within the first 24 hours of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, all Ukrainian Ground Radar Intercept capabilities were wiped out. Without those radars, the Ukrainian Air Force lost its ability to do air to air intercept. In the intervening three weeks, Russia has established a de facto No Fly Zone over Ukraine. While still vulnerable to shoulder fired Surface to Air Missiles supplied by the U.S. and NATO to the Ukrainians, there is no evidence that Russia has had to curtail Combat Air Operations.

Russia’s arrival in Kiev within three days of the invasion also caught my attention. I recalled that the Nazi’s in Operation Barbarossa took seven weeks to reach Kiev and the required 7 more weeks to subdue the city. The Nazis had the advantage of not pulling punches to avoid civilian casualties and were eager to destroy critical infrastructure. Yet many so-called American military experts claimed that Russia was bogged down. When a 24 mile (or 40 mile, depends on the news source) was positioned north of Kiev for more than a week, it was clear that Ukraine’s ability to launch significant military operations had been eliminated. If their artillery was intact, then that column was easy pickings for massive destruction. That did not happen. Alternatively, if the Ukrainian’s had a viable fixed wing or rotary wing capability they should have destroyed that column from the air. That did not happen. Or, if they had a viable cruise missile capability they should have rained down hell on the supposedly stalled Russian column. That did not happen. The Ukrainians did not even mount a significant infantry ambush of the column with their newly supplied U.S. Javelins.

The scale and scope of the Russian attack is remarkable. They captured territory in three weeks that is larger than the land mass of the United Kingdom. They then proceeded to carry out targeted attacks on key cities and military installations. We have not seen a single instance of a Ukrainian regiment or brigade size unit attacking and defeating a comparable Russian unit. Instead, the Russians have split the Ukrainian Army into fragments and cut their lines of communication. The Russians are consolidating their control of Mariupol and have secured all approaches on the Black Sea. Ukraine is now cut off in the South and the North.

I would note that the U.S. had a tougher time capturing this much territory in Iraq in 2003 while fighting against a far inferior, less capable military force. If anything, this Russian operation should scare the hell out of U.S. military and political leaders.

The really big news came this week with the Russian missile strikes on what are de facto NATO bases in Yavoriv and Zhytomyr. NATO conducted cyber security training at Zhytomyr in September 2018 and described Ukraine as a “NATO partner.” Zhytomyr was destroyed with hypersonic missiles on Saturday. Yavoriv suffered a similar fate last Sunday. It was the primary training and logistics center that NATO and EUCOM used to supply fighters and weapons to Ukraine. A large number of the military and civilian personnel at that base became casualties.

Not only is Russia striking and destroying bases used by NATO regularly since 2015, but there was no air raid warning and there was no shutdown of the attacking missiles.

Question 2– Why is the media trying to convince the Ukrainian people that they can prevail in their war against Russia? If what you say is correct, then all the civilians that are being sent to fight the Russian army, are dying in a war they can’t win. I don’t understand why the media would want to mislead people on something so serious. What are your thoughts on the matter?

Larry C. Johnson– This is a combination of ignorance and laziness. Rather than do real reporting, the vast majority of the media (print and electronic) as well as Big Tech are supporting a massive propaganda campaign. I remember when George W. Bush was Hitler. I remember when Donald Trump was Hitler. And now we have a new Hitler, Vladimir Putin. This is a tired, failed playbook. Anyone who dares to raise legitimate questions about is immediately tarred as a Putin puppet or a Russia stooge. When you cannot argue facts the only recourse is name calling.

Question 3– Last week, Colonel Douglas MacGregor was a guest on the Tucker Carlson Show. His views on the war are strikingly similar to your own. Here’s what he said in the interview:

“The war is really over for the Ukrainians. They have been ground into bits, there is no question about that despite what we hear from our mainstream media. So, the real question for us at this stage is, Tucker, are we going to live with the Russian people and their government or we going to continue to pursue this sort of regime change dressed up as a Ukrainian war? Are we going to stop using Ukraine as a battering ram against Moscow, which is effectively what we’ve done.” (Tucker Carlson– MacGregor Interview)

Do you agree with MacGregor that the real purpose of goading Russia into a war in Ukraine was “regime change”?

Second, do you agree that Ukraine is being used as a staging ground for the US to carry out a proxy-war on Russia?

Larry C. Johnson– Doug is great analyst but I disagree with him—I don’t think there is anyone in the Biden Administration that is smart enough to think and plan in those strategic terms. In my view the last 7 years have been the inertia of the NATO status quo. What I mean by that is that NATO and Washington, believed they could continue to creep east on Russia’s borders without provoking a reaction. NATO and EUCOM regularly carried out exercises—including providing “offensive” training—and supplied equipment. I believe reports in the United States that the CIA was providing paramilitary training to Ukrainian units operating in the Donbass are credible. But I have trouble believing that after our debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, we suddenly have Sun Tzu level strategists pulling the strings in Washington.

There is an air of desperation in Washington. Besides trying ban all things Russian, the Biden Administration is trying to bully China, India and Saudi Arabia. I do not see any of those countries falling into line. I believe the Biden crew made a fatal mistake by trying to demonize all things and all people Russian. If anything, this is uniting the Russian people behind Putin and they are ready to dig in for a long struggle.

I am shocked at the miscalculation in thinking economic sanctions on Russia would bring them to their knees. The opposite is true. Russia is self-sufficient and is not dependent on imports. Its exports are critical to the economic well-being of the West. If they withhold wheat, potash, gas, oil, palladium, finished nickel and other key minerals from the West, the European and U.S. economies will be savaged. And this attempt to coerce Russia with sanctions has now made it very likely that the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency will show up in the dustbin of history.

Question 4– Ever since he delivered his famous speech in Munich in 2007, Putin has been complaining about the “architecture of global security”. In Ukraine we can see how these nagging security issues can evolve into a full-blown war. As you know, in December Putin made a number of demands related to Russian security, but the Biden administration shrugged them off and never responded. Putin wanted written assurances that NATO expansion would not include Ukraine (membership) and that nuclear missile systems would not be deployed to Romania or Poland. Do you think Putin’s demands are unreasonable?

Larry C. Johnson– I think Putin’s demands are quite reasonable. The problem is that 99% of Americans have no idea of the kind of military provocation that NATO and the U.S. have carried out over the last 7 years. The public was always told the military exercises were “defensive.” That simply is not true. Now we have news that DTRA was funding biolabs in Ukraine. I guess Putin could agree to allow U.S. nuclear missile systems in Poland and Romania if Biden agrees to allow comparable Russian systems to be deployed in Cuba, Venezuela and Mexico. When we look at it in those terms we can begin to understand that Putin’s demands are not crazy nor unreasonable.

Question 5– Russian media reports that Russian “high precision, air-launched” missiles struck a facility in west Ukraine “killing more than 100 local troops and foreign mercenaries.” Apparently, the Special Operations training center was located near the town of Ovruch which is just 15 miles from the Polish border. What can you tell us about this incident? Was Russia trying to send a message to NATO?

Larry C. Johnson– Short answer—YES! Russian military strikes in Western Ukraine during the past week have shocked and alarmed NATO officials. The first blow came on Sunday, March 13 at Yavoriv, Ukraine. Russia hit the base with several missiles, some reportedly hypersonic. Over 200 personnel were killed, which included American and British military and intelligence personnel, and hundreds more wounded. Many suffered catastrophic wounds, such as amputations, and are in hospital. Yet, NATO and the western media have shown little interest in reporting on this disaster.

Yavoriv was an important forward base for NATO (see here). Until February (prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), the U.S. 7th Army Training Command was operating from Yavoriv as late as mid-February. Russia has not stopped there. ASB Military news reports Russia hit another site, Delyatyn, which is 60 miles southeast of Yavoriv (on Thursday I believe). Yesterday, Russia hit Zytomyr, another site where NATO previously had a presence. Putin has sent a very clear message—NATO forces in Ukraine will be viewed and treated as combatants. Period.

Question 6– Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been lionized in the western media as a “wartime leader” and a modern-day “Winston Churchill”. What the media fails to tell its readers is that Zelensky has taken a number of steps to strengthen his grip on power while damaging fragile democratic institutions in Ukraine. For example, Zelensky has “banned eleven opposition-owned news organizations” and tried to bar the head of Ukraine’s largest opposition party, Viktor Medvedchuk, from running for office on a bogus “terrorist financing” charge. This is not the behavior of a leader that is seriously committed to democracy.

What’s your take on Zelensky? Is he really the “patriotic leader” the media makes him out to be?

Larry C. Johnson– Zelensky is a comedian and an actor. Not a very good one at that in my view. The West is cynically using the fact he is Jewish as a diversion from the size-able contingent of Neo-Nazis (and I mean genuine Nazis who still celebrate the Ukrainian Waffen SS unit’s accomplishments while fighting with the Nazis in WW II). The facts are clear—he is banning opposition political parties and shutting down opposition media. I guess that is the new definition of “democracy.”

Question 7– How does this end? There’s an excellent post at the Moon of Alabama site titled “What Will Be The Geographic End State Of The War In Ukraine“. The author of the post, Bernard, seems to think that Ukraine will eventually be partitioned along the Dnieper River “and south along the coast that holds a majority ethnic Russian population.” He also says this:

“This would eliminate Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and create a land bridge towards the Moldavian breakaway Transnistria which is under Russian protection. The rest of the Ukraine would be a land confined, mostly agricultural state, disarmed and too poor to be build up to a new threat to Russia anytime soon. Politically it would be dominated by fascists from Galicia which would then become a major problem for the European Union.”

What do you think? Will Putin impose his own territorial settlement on Ukraine in order to reinforce Russian security and bring the hostilities to an end or is a different scenario more likely?

Larry C. Johnson– I agree with Moon. Putin’s primary objective is to secure Russia from foreign threats and effect a divorce with the West. Russia has the physical resources to be an independent sovereign and is in the process of making that vision come true.

About Rumors, Which May Not Be Rumors...

... at all.  I will remind you one thing I wrote last year, while demolishing Valdai Club Timofeev's (lack of) military expertise who, as well as other native Russian "experts" of this kind, RT loves to invite to spread ignorance around. Here is this "thing":

I don't know why "one Ukraine scenario" even enters considerations here? I have no rational explanation to why Timofeev even discusses that. In the end, leave it to Poland, Hungary and Romania to deal with Western Ukraine. That, BTW, may become what would put the final nail into NATO's coffin.

In fact, I am on record about Polish (and other East European) aspirations towards Western Ukraine for years.  In the end, there are Hungarians and Rusins who already beg Victor Orban for protection for more than a year, there is Bukovina where Romania may get some satisfaction from the coming "loss" of Moldavia. So, RT reports:

Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Irina Vereshchuk has questioned, what she has described as, Hungary’s “pro-Russian” rhetoric, suggesting that the desire for “cheap Russian gas” or even a potential land grab could be behind Budapest’s policy over the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. In a lengthy Facebook post, the official claimed that “not even all Russian satellites from the former Soviet Union behave the way Hungary’s authorities do.” She said that Hungary does not support sanctions against Russia, refuses to provide Ukraine with weapons, and even “does not allow weapons from other countries to pass via their territory.” “In fact, they say ‘no’ to everything. A bit more – and Budapest's official rhetoric will be totally pro-Russian. What is this? Want some cheap Russian gas? Or maybe want our Transcarpathia?” Vereshchuk wrote before calling on Budapest to “join the civilized world” and “not to repeat the mistakes of World War II when Hungary made a wrong choice.”

Well, I think it is Ukraine which made a wrong choice, not Hungary who has been keeping much of its army near Ukrainian border for a while. And it goes without saying that Poles remember the original name of the Polish city currently known as Lvov, and it is Lemberg or Lwow.  So, Alex Christoforou makes some announcements (with caveat, obviously) today about this Polish thing.

But Russians have been discussing the possibility of Polish "peace-keeping" (meaning the annexation of what is effectively historic Polish lands) for a while. Ruslan Ostashko altogether states that Biden's upcoming visit to Poland IS about partition of Ukraine, with Poland moving into the Western Ukraine (in Russian). As I, among many, state non-stop (the latest being yesterday when talking to Piero), there is a feeling around that Kremlin itself still contemplates what to do with Banderland (West Ukraine) because Russia doesn't want to get those people on her balance and partition of that land is by far not the worst scenario for Russia. 

As they say, there is no smoke without fire, and I think the probability of Poland getting in is far from trivial. Also, circulation of such let's call them, for now, rumors has a significant military aspect behind them, because Polish Armed Forces are by far not the Russian Army and they follow operation Z very attentively calculating required force and I am sure behind closed doors Polish military people are pretty happy seeing reports of annihilation of large VSU forces, but especially those of Neo-Nazi formations, such as Azov "battalion", who have roots in the Western Ukraine. The more "banderistas" Russians bury, the easier it will be for Polish "peace keepers" to deal with whatever resistance they may encounter in and around Lwow. 

In fact, the whole logic of the conflict dictates these events, including possible partition of what's will be left of Ukraine. In related news, while Western military "experts" (such as this "expert") from NYT continue to spew headlines like this:

I can only imagine the wowser which comes after reading on operations of Russia's AD over such a vast theater once reports will be done after things calm down somewhat. It is something we never saw before. That will rub a lot of salt into already gaping wounds of many Western military "experts". Per Western media low-lives, they have Pulitzers to console themselves for spreading war crimes propaganda and sophomoric lies.

Couldn't Miss This One)))

VSU in desperation now covers its remaining tanks, hidden naturally in the midst of civilian apartment blocks, with... carpets. 

This video is allegedly from Kiev. I also cannot vouch for carpets, some of them could be from IKEA, others from some other stores. I am not going to delve into the stupidity of this method against the Army (Russian Army) which owns battle-space, including ISR preponderance, but the best comment was this, LOL:

Как бы мы по ошибке не начали ковровыми бомбардировками увлекаться. 

Translation: I am afraid we, by mistake, may get addicted to carpet bombing. 

 LOL)) This is a good one. Desperate times, desperate measures.