Making a "No Shit" Headline Permanent...For a While.

Somebody begins to suspect something. WaPo reports. 

The footage of rifle-toting Taliban fighters occupying the presidential palace and rolling up the Afghan national flag stood as a defining image of a failed U.S. effort to transform Afghan society at the cost of a trillion dollars and thousands of lives lost. “Decades from now, these images will be invoked as a vivid example of the limits of U.S. power, and of its inability to fight modern wars effectively or to end them on favorable terms,” said Michael Kugelman, an Afghanistan scholar at the Wilson Center.

Expect a lot of trite self-evident BS like this occupying the first pages of the West's media in coming weeks, with "scholars" expressing their opinions which are worthless in any practical sense. In related news, the sky is blue, water is wet etc. For Kugelman personally--learn about real war, in spare time, you know. The problem, of course, is deeper, much deeper than obvious humiliation of the United States. French globalist rag Le Figaro concludes (in an obvious attempt at numbing a profound butt-hurt) that even America's traditional competitors or enemies such as Russia, China or Iran are not joyful from America's failure. At this stage I need to make "No Shit" headline permanent. No, Russia is not "enjoying" America's humiliation, because real geopolitics and national interests do not work like this. By the "do not work like this" I mean a two-bit sublimation by Western "academe" of own complexes into pseudo-scientific dick-measuring contests in matters in which they have no even minimal competencies--a defining feature of modern West's (pseudo) "intellectual" class. Real great powers care about order and predictability, not some clusterfuck which is left by the United States anywhere it goes to "promote democracy".

Phil Giraldi wrote an excellent piece on this matter, namely American ambassadorship using a pseudo-"scholar" and certified clown Michael McFaul as an example, and stated:

Whenever one gets into discussions about the decline of America’s ability to positively influence developments around the world a number of issues tend to surface. First is the hubristic claim by successive presidents that the United States is somehow “exceptional” as a polity while also serving as the world’s only superpower and also the anointed Leader of the Free World, whatever that is supposed to mean. Some critics of the status quo also have been willing to look a bit deeper, recognizing that it is the policies being pursued by the White House and Congress that are out of sync with what is actually happening in Asia, Africa and Latin America, being more driven by establishing acceptable narratives than by genuine interests.     

Not only the United States doesn't have a diplomacy, as a tool of a statecraft, in any operational sense, it fails in something which is even more important--intelligence. As the events in Afghanistan have shown, US "intelligence" estimate on Kabul being able to hold on for "around 90 days" was not just bad, which is always the case in the last few decades, but it was obviously a figment of imagination, and not a good one at that. Recall Patrick Armstrong's: 

NO, YOUR INTELLIGENCE IS ACTUALLY BAD. VERY BAD.

Or Margarita Simonyan's famous address to the US:

I’ve been telling you for a long time to find normal advisers on Russia. Sack all those parasites.

They will not, and they will continue to believe own BS, because if they will stop deluding themselves, they will have to live with unbearable facts of their responsibility for what they have done around the world and to own country which is...well, read my latest book. Russia is not "enjoying" because she will have to deal with Taliban on a state level as Afghanistan's legitimate government, but Taliban's first actions, including immediately providing good security for Russian diplomats in Kabul, is a promising sign (in Russian). Obviously some arrangements need to be made, including regarding the fate of ISIS cells (courtesy of the US and British "corridor" for them from Syria) in Afghanistan who need to be eradicated, plus there are issues with Al Qaeda. Russia is in waiting. If Taliban puts Afghanistan under full control and will provide law (well, Sharia is THE law) and order, including, as they already conveyed to Moscow, observing human rights, Russia will remove the title of "terrorist organization" from Taliban, which will open some interesting perspectives for Kabul. Taliban DOES know this--emerging Eurasian market is extremely promising for all participants. 

As current Russian meme states:       

"We will not allow to turn Afghanistan into Ukraine--this is how Taliban explained main motive for their Blitzkrieg". 

Remarkably, there is a lot of truth in it. As Douglas Macgregor bitterly states:

All that can be said with certainty is that between 2001 and 2021, none of the senior officers expressed opposition to the policies of intervention and occupation strongly enough to warrant their removal. None felt compelled to leave the service and take their opposing views to the public forum. When it became clear that the collective strategies and tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq were failing, not only General David Petraeus, but most of America’s senior military leaders chose to prevaricate and distort facts in public to show progress when there was none. How many American lives might have been saved had someone only told the truth will never be known. There is no getting around it. America’s senior civilian and military leaders (together with their supporting service bureaucracies) are fundamentally incapable of developing or implementing effective military strategy.

They can't tell the truth, because:

And that was the case for a long time in America and that is a true "No Shit" moment. They will learn nothing. 

 

UPDATE: for those who are interested--the interview of Boris Gromov to Vzglyad (In Russian). Use Google Translate--it is worth it. 

 

IQ Cult.

A superb piece on real intelligence at Saker's site by Naresh Jotwani. Speaking on High IQ People (HIQP) he notes:

The truth value of a narrative does not count. What counts is only the result: Which narrative ‘looked like it carried the day’? That explains the HIQP’s 24×7 yakety-yak. In such an environment, rational debate is not possible. Rational debate requires mutual understanding and acceptance of the premises and the process of logical thinking. There is of course an unwritten rule of wise people that the premises must accord with reality, with truth. For HIQPs, all that matters is whether a debater is articulate, persuasive, photogenic, assertive and well-networked. There is no need to introduce any pesky ‘truth’ in the debate. It is far easier to just continue being articulate, persuasive … et cetera. Keep playing. Truth is a can which can always be kicked further down the road. Tomorrow is another day. If rational debate is not possible, can diplomacy succeed? Of course not! After all, diplomacy also has its premises and its conventions of debate.

It is a superb piece and it explains succinctly why there are so many dumbfucks and incompetent hacks with very high IQs in the US ranging from utterly imbecilic US main stream media to "academe", to Congress and even the White House. Read highlighted in yellow. Enjoy. 

Different Software.

Recall Vladislav Surkov's excellent piece on Russia being lonely and half-blooded nation couple of years ago. I think, this article was one of the most important geopolitical statement of the 21st century, so far. Akin to  Mackinder's The Geographical Pivot of History. Let's recall some Surkov's conclusions. 

Despite outward appearance of a similarity between Russian and European cultural models, they have different software and ports. These models cannot constitute a common system. Today, when this ancient suspicion turned into the obvious fact, new suggestions are beginning to be heard—why don't we rush to the other side, to Asia, to Orient. No, this is not necessary and here is why—Russia has been there already....   Our cultural and geopolitical affiliation is reminiscent of a wandering identity of a human born into the mixed wedlock.This human is a relative to everyone but is not dear to anyone either. He is his own among strangers, a stranger among his own. He understands everyone but is not understood by anyone. Half-blooded, metis, a very strange one. Russia is a Western-Eastern half-blooded country. With her two-headed statehood, hybrid mentality, intercontinental territory, bi-polar history, she, as it is predetermined for half-blooded, is charismatic, talented, beautiful and lonely.  

The discussion on Russia's civilizational affinity never stopped for centuries, but new emerging facts confirm Surkov's, albeit not his alone, his is just laid out in the best style, diagnosis being absolutely correct. I know it is not fair to many non-Russian speakers of this blog to post here yesterday's discussion on Solovyov's Show precisely on this matter because it is in Russian and I am not sure when Russia Insight will close caption this piece in English (hopefully) but Karen Shahnazarov's thoughts are important, even if I do not agree with them completely. 

The point is simple, new amendment to Russia's Constitution, which proclaims priority of Russian Laws over International Law is one among several indicators of Russia settling in her, desired by the overwhelming majority of Russians, "loneliness". But Karen, interestingly, arrives to a conclusion to which I arrived long time ago--China is not the main concern or enemy to the United States, it is Russia which is. I write about this for years. Karen also makes this important point--the United States is in the full departure mode, especially militarily, which determines the rest of it, but American "elites" are very slow in accepting this fact and many still reside in their "exceptionalist" bubble, not understanding that they are nothing more than an entertainment for those who, like viewers outside cages in the zoo, remain outside this bubble. Of course, the analogy of a violent patient in the psychiatric ward placed in the padded room while being observed through the small window in the door will be more apt at describing the situation, but it still has to account for a still very significant danger such a patient, if not restrained, represents for himself and those around him. 

So, what's the balance, so to speak, or the hand, using card games' term, Russia is dealt. What many in the West overlooked (not surprisingly), is the fact that the new Cold War finally ignited in the realm of essences: metaphysics and history. Putin's public rise, unprecedented throughout his term at the helm of Russia, in defense of Soviet/Russian WWII history and the role Soviet Union and the Red Army played in stopping Nazi evil created a stir, to put it mildly. And here is the deal: Poland and her version of WW II "history" (supplemented with Ukrainian "take" on it) which is gladly being disseminated in the West was shut down abruptly and in the most dramatic fashion. But Poland, let alone Ukraine, are merely America's lap dogs, granted with large and influential diasporas in the United States and Canada, such as one of their representatives from Canada, a granddaughter of Nazi collaborator, Canada's Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, not to mention Ukrainian American "hero" Lt.Colonel Vindman, who turned out to be one of the key figures (together with his brother) in the Ukrainegate affair having committed no less than a state treason. Now get this--this kind of people are not exceptions, they are the rule in the Western in general, and American in particular, "elites". They, quoting Mike Pompeo's definition of their MO (not just CIA's), will "lie, cheat, steal". This is what they do, this is how they live, they hate Russian guts by definition, because  world history unfolded in the last 80 years not to their liking. 

Historic Russia defeated combined West in 1945, it is also the WW II which spurred the United States' rise from the ashes of the two (not just one) Great Depressions to emerge as a superpower amidst the world which laid in ruins by the end of the WWII. The only thing which stood in the way of the United States' rule over the whole world was Soviet Union, today it is Russia. Russia's emergence of the superpower is also rooted in the WW II, but the path to superpowerdom was opposite to that of the United States--it was through enormous sacrifice while bearing the brunt of the war. This CAN NOT stand for the American "elites", because this removes the key component of the American mythology and, with it, a key tenet of the Western version of 20 and 21st centuries' history, in the worlds of Fukuyama, the end of it, with West sitting on top of the world. Thus, the history of WW II, a crucible of modern world, MUST be rewritten and it is being rewritten non-stop. But it is also for the first time in 30 years when Russia, at the highest political level, said that she had enough. It was Soviet/Russian collectivism which stopped Hitler's combined Western hordes, not  liberal democracy which took the credit for that immense historic achievement. It was not Soviet Union which unleashed that war. Combined West was. This is what at the root of West's hostility to Russia. This is this metaphysical never-ending chicken-and-egg problem in relation to the modern world. And that is why Russia will always remain the enemy for the West. Because she beat it many times before, China, incidentally, didn't.

Putin declared the creation of the, opened to general public, on-line archive of the WW II. Finally! Better late than never. It is an enormously significant effort which, hopefully, will send many Western "military historians" packing and their academic "careers" in falsification destroyed, which they fully deserve. Putin, of course, knows that his call for what amounts to new Yalta Conference will be sabotaged by the West, as were calls of Maxim Litvinov (and Stalin) for Collective Security 85 years before. But he still calls:

“I am convinced that it is high time for a serious and direct discussion about the basic principles of a stable world order and the most acute problems that humanity is facing. It is necessary to show political will, wisdom and courage. The time demands an awareness of our shared responsibility and real actions.”

In the world of post-truth and non-stop media manipulation such calls matter, even if for the sake of the principle that forms must be obeyed. The 75th Anniversary of the Victory is coming. I can only imagine what will be the scale of festivities and remembrance in Russia. If 2015 celebration is any indication--it will be huge. Important still, however, will be the list, no doubt impressive, of luminaries who will attend Parade on the Red Square and the March of Immortal Regiment. Invitations have been issued already. Emmanuel Macron and French Delegation will be present, so will be Serbia's leadership with Serbian troops participating in the parade. India's leadership will attend too, among others. United States was invited, including troops for the march at the Red Square. Trump expressed desire to attend. It is only proper to see British and American troops marching there. Putin understands the immense symbolism and importance of such an event. Many in Washington and London do too. The point will be not just to go back in time when British Empire, United States and USSR were allies but also to stake out the historic truth for which, it seems, for the first time in 30 years Russia began a truly serious fight.

It was Tolstoy through Pierre in War and Piece who conveyed this idea:

and then my idea is so clear and simple. You see, I don't say that we ought to oppose this and that. We may be mistaken. What I say is: 'Join hands, you who love the right, and let there be but one banner- that of active virtue.' 

Russia is trying that, for all her flaws and failures, therein grows a new social model, and that model represents clear and present danger for the modern combined West because it is THE alternative to a chaos and withering--the only future modern liberalism can offer. Russia understands that she will always be alone, outside any meaningful alliances, but recent events inside Russia speak clearly that for the first time in many years Russia introduces a very strong moral element to her foreign policy and will defend it with everything she has got. Active virtue is what draws people around the world towards Russia. This is not an empty bluster, already in 2020, RT (formerly known as Russia Today) hit an immense 10 billion views, putting it way ahead of any MSM in the US and UK. As jack Nicholson once famously said:

Patrick Armstrong Asks A Question.

Patrick wrote today and important piece. I would say a metaphysical (almost) one.  In it he essentially asks and answers the question of WHY people like him (it relates to me in a sense too) do what they do. The piece is titled: 

WE’RE NOT JUST TALKING TO OURSELVES – OTHERS FIND US

It is one of those must read pieces and here is the answer (crucial part of it) to the question of why do what Patric, Bernhard from MoA, The Saker or I do. 

So what’s the point of writing? I already agree with you, you already agree with me. Our readers are here because they also agree. Writing becomes a mechanical operation, moving along a pre-determined course. No minds are changed, no minds are even engaged. But there is one big and important difference between the two solitudes which leads us out of the my bubble/your bubble stalemate. The well-informed person will be less often surprised than the poorly informed person. There is an objective reality and people who actually do have a pretty good take on things, see that reality more clearly than those who don’t. In short, those who actually are well-informed will be less often surprised than those who aren’t. Surprise is the clue: it is both the consequence and the evidence of ignorance.

It is absolutely crucial point. Consider this blog. OK, you read this blog, so let's consider this one as an example, in the end it is the only one way for me to heap the praise on myself, otherwise, as Russian saying goes--did not praise yourself today, consider the whole day wasted(c). This blog, now in a sixth year of its existence, was and remains relentless from the very inception in its warnings about reality being not what it is being presented by people and institutions which Patrick effectively described as being surprised in a non-stop manner:

But the readers and writers of the WaPo/NYT/Economist/Guardian bloc were surprised. They are certain that Assad gasses his own people when there’s no reason to; they believe that Qaddafi “bombed his own people“; they laughed when Trump said he was taped; they called Milosevic the “butcher of the Balkans“; they expect the Russian economy to collapse; they’re confident that the JIT is an honest investigation; they expect the protests will weaken Putin; they believe the “world community” recognises Guaidó; they are confident the West would be happy if Putin weren’t sowing discord; they expect that the next world problem will be managing China’s decline; they know where to find democracy in Hong Kong. And, especially, they were confident that Mueller will find a bombshell to blow up Trump. They remain believers in Browder’s story. The devotees of the establishment media bloc are almost always surprised by the way things turn out. That, by itself, shows that they are poorly informed about reality. Everybody is surprised some of the time but the poorly informed are surprised all of the time.

Bingo, I write for years now that not only WE (as an alternative media) are better in our OODA due diligence, but that Western establishment is utterly incompetent and that is why it is surprised non-stop. I called it few years ago a permanent Chalabi Moment. Mind you, Patrick Armstrong was an analyst in Canadian Defense Ministry, Larry C Johnson or Philip Giraldi were bona fide CIA officers, Colonel Patrick Lang is a Vietnam War combat veteran who availed his blog as a platform for many people whose military-intelligence backgrounds and experiences are genuine and proved viable throughout the years  by giving in general a top-notch analysis and providing good reliability of their forecasts. And here is the point--for people who involve themselves into such activity as assessing and forecasting anything, the first requirement for them, if to put it in a layman's lingo, is to be right, correct in their "predictions" at least once in a while, forget being consistent. That requires knowledge of the subject. In the end, one has to have his facts straight and this is not easy and requires a lot of professionalism,  labor and honesty--qualities completely lacking in the Establishment media and think-tankdom.

We (I say we because I do not separate myself from what, say, Patrick Armstrong and Strategic Culture Foundation do) simply know better. Let me demonstrate Patrick's point about people seeking out truth on this blog's example--from the inception I literally did not use any technologies other than my posts on a discussion boards to attract attention to my blog. None. I referred to some of my post through links on a discussion boards at Unz Review, plus I posted couple of them at Colonel Lang's blog. My blog became more or less known largely through the "word of mouth". Here is how it went since 2014. 

Blog started at December 2014

In other words, Armstrong is spot on when stating:

But people do change and our audience is growing. How can that be happening if we change no minds? Because the individual makes the first step on his own. So this is the reason why we write and speak and – religious allusion again – testify. People we’ve never heard of, disgusted by the strident one-sided nonsense, surprised by some unexpected reality they bump into, stop passively believing, begin to doubt, search around and find us. Our writings then show them they were right to doubt and lead them to a better appreciation of reality. We don’t persuade them, they persuade themselves; we don’t convert them, they convert themselves. But we reinforce their conversion and show them that there is more reality (less surprise) on our side. Once gained to our side, they won’t leave. It’s conversion.

But in the end, we are simply better, because we know more, much more about things we are talking about. Moreover, most of us know our own limitations but we know where to seek competent opinion on matters we don't know about. BTW, while at it, this blog is well over 2 million original views now and, as I stated before, practically nothing was done to promote it, people simply started seeking it out mostly by the "word of mouth". Of course, publishing books helped too. Recall what I stated almost five years ago:

The realization, that Russia IS already inside the West's (and US in particular) OODA Loop (if it does have any at all--the conclusion to which I begin to lean) should settle in by now. Getting inside one's OODA Loop was a highest priority for Colonel Boyd. It did already happen. It is so simple, if to put in into famous (and correct)  slogan--You Are What You Know. And it goes without saying that combined West knows shit about Russia. It always did.      

My assertion stands and it is now supported by an overwhelming body of empirical evidence.