Clearing The Air ...

 ... regarding this story which originated in Chinese tabloid Sohu which used term "gift" from Russia before Putin's official visit to Beijing. This "gift" thingy then started to be propagated all over the place in Russian (incompetent) media. Here is Vzglyad:

All this "gift" BS is just that--BS. Russia is not making any "gifts" to China, what Sergei Chemezov said, however, a week ago is that Russia is ready to SUPPLY PD-14 engines, which BTW are in serial production, but it will cost China. Russia is NOT transferring this technology, but what she says is if China wants to pay for scaling up of manufacturing of PD-14s, Russia will gladly take this investment and will scale it up ... in Russia. Here is a reminder about the fate of China's (not really--it is a Euro-American aircraft) which was predicted by my years ago and it happened when the US stopped supplying CFM Leap engines to China and C919 found itself dead in the water:

For those who still don't get it--apart from C919 being not Chinese--I repeat: China is NOT in the same league commercial jet engines wise as RR, PW, GE and PD series. These are the leaders here, Chinese engines are not competitive and Chemezov was very clear (in Russian): if China expresses desire Russia is ready to SUPPLY PD-14 engines. (c) No "technology transfer" (yeah, right), no manufacturing IN China but: China pays for expansion in Russia, ODK produces PD-14s for China and ships them, period. That helps China save her face with this C919 fiasco of which yours truly warned for years. In related news, after Russia quit Joint Venture with China on the wide body C 929 and went on her own way (IL-96-400 with PD-35 and shit), China asked Russia to test PD-35 in ... China)). Nice try, nice try)) 

To Create The New System Of Standards ...

 ... you have to have those standards be among if not the best. For those people who still continue to reside in this La La Land of Chinese commercial aerospace--just signing some agreements is not enough. 

To dual-track certification mechanism away from FAA and EASA you need to be able to have a complete enclosed cycle of the commercial aerospace--in other words you have to SET those standards which are very competitive (if not the same) beyond the West's framework. China DOES NOT have it. The whole idea behind COMAC 919 was to get this rather un-remarkable aircraft stuffed with Western-made ... everything and thus follow the path of Sukhoi Super Jet which was certified in the West and flew for a number of Western airlines. But then again, here is an interesting historical bit. This is Haneda airport in Tokyo, 1971. Il-62 with KLM sticker (some flew with Japan Airlines livery) hauling passengers on Trans-Siberian route Tokyo-Moscow-Amsterdam. They were leasing those planes--yes, KLM and JAL. 

Like this. 

In other words, USSR (historic Russia) have been not only a provider of the commercial air transport for Eastern block and the third world, but was a direct competitor to West's commercial aerospace. So, in this case--Russia's leaving global aerospace market due to economic atrocity and its effects in 1990s-2000s was a TEMPORARY thing, and the plans for the return have been already in the making in 2000s. Russian planes also will not be certified by EASA--it is a given (FAA--we may have to give it a bit longer to understand their "approach"), but they are Russian-made. Forget about all critical systems such as engines, APU, avionics, mechanics, what have you. Russians told all those Western designers to go and pound sand. 

BTW, do you know that it is not just about appearances (looks), nope--to design a seat in the aircraft in the US you MUST have at least a Bachelor degree in either aerospace engineering or a mechanical one. It is a hell of an important part in any aircraft. So, guess who is ready now to roll out those standards, granted it is an immense work to create this certification mechanism for BRICS and Global South. To forestall the assault of China fanboys (not to be mistaken for people who greatly appreciate China's magnificent achievements but also point out obvious facts)--China is only now evolving with her competitive (emphasis--competitive) commercial aerospace and it is a long and arduous journey. This is clear to anyone who ever worked in any capacity in commercial aerospace and who saw what and how Standards and Quality Management Systems (QMS) dominate the process, until cretins with MBAs begin to interfere to keep shareholders "happy". You all know what I am talking about. In conclusion: YES--to dual track, NO--it is not going to be China, especially NOW when MC-21 is finishing certification, and SSJ is doing the same. Not to mention Tu-214 and its two pilot cockpit version. Is China ready to break away from the West? I thought so.  

A Controversy...

... but conveniently put into the documentary. DISCLAIMER: China Observer where this video originates from is HIGHLY likely some anti-Chinese propaganda outlet and I am keenly aware of that. But it doesn't mean that in this case they don't have a point. After all, recall what I wrote for years. Such as this piece and one can hardly accuse me of being "anti-Chinese", but I am on record and I continue to defend this point--COMAC 919 IS NOT a competitor to Airbus, Boeing or MC-21. And the point which very many make, even if it is from, like in this case, CNN is valid. 

But because the government has touted the aircraft as a homemade success, analysts have been quick to point out just how much is made outside China. In a 2020 analysis, CSIS estimated that approximately 90% of the C919’s main or large-scale component suppliers were from North America and Europe, with only 10% coming from China and other countries in Asia. Yusof cited a similar estimate. Kennedy said while it was possible the proportion had changed since the 2020 report, he thought it was unlikely given how tough it would be to change suppliers during the aviation certification process. 

This is a cold hard fact which cannot be misinterpreted. Here is another similar example: till roughly 2019 Russian Navy's frigate program was completely dependent on Ukrainian Zorya Mashproekt propulsion. Russia paid dearly for this dependency and it took a massive effort to launch the production of gas-turbines in Russia. Same goes for Russia playing nicely with Germany's MTU. Russia overcame those problems, but then again--there was a scientific and industrial foundation for that. Same goes with commercial aviation, because the expertise was always there. 

And here is the issue, which Russians point out to constantly, unlike fully Russian MC-21, C919 IS NOT a Chinese plane. 

It is a Western plane whether we like it or not. And that is a huge deal, because Chinaisation of this plane, if it ever commences, will be a torturous and prolonged process. If... So, each time I read or hear that C919 is a "competitor" to Boeing or Airbus, I cringe. Commercial aviation is an extremely complex industry which incorporates know-how only very few countries have and China is not there yet, and that is also a cold hard fact. Will China's commercial aerospace be sanctioned, thus disrupting C919? Certainly, possible. Chinese know that, and this is their vulnerability--a serious strategic one. I thought you might be interested. Especially against the background of China leaving CR-929 project because Russia is not going to share with her technologies for free and, as a result, Chinese COMAC Wide-Body (this is how it is called now) will be a larger version of... and you guessed it... COMAC 919--a Western made aircraft assembled in China.

Something Of Import...

 ... in terms of aerospace industry. I am on record: I do not pretend to be a commercial aircraft industry analyst, albeit for a number of years I was certainly an insider. Once in a while I do make some reviews of the state of commercial aircraft industry and since Russia is fully "isolated", it makes sense to again point out the real dynamics in Russian and... Chinese commercial aircraft industries. I stumbled on an interesting video about Chinese C-919 and Russian MC-21. 

This review is very important against the background of an ongoing tectonic shift in global economy with combined West not only losing it positions but being forced by the US to commit suicide by means of de-industrialization. We all can understand basic ramifications of all that and the fact that the US cannot fight Russia directly inevitably pushes the US towards much more aggressive posture against China. And here is some info on COMAC C-919. 

As you can see yourself this aircraft will never be allowed to appear on the global market because it will be immediately "sanctioned" by the United States which is a supplier of C-919's US-French CFM Leap power-plant and pretty much most of avionics and other systems. And here is this strategic difference between COMAC and MC-21. Despite non-stop sabotage and sanctions from the US, MC-21 is increasingly Russified aircraft--even ever confused Wiki gives a good account on the Russian systems in MC-21, as well as other Russian aircraft. 

MC-21 already has critical components, from engine PD-14 to APU by Aerosila, to avionics (KRET), to composites, to landing gear, to on-board systems. All Russian-made, making MC-21 invulnerable to sanctions due to proprietary issues which will be and already are making, as an example, C-919 a subject of sanctions. In other words, if ever C-919 will try to compete with single isle mid-range aircraft globally, it can easily be removed from competition on the same grounds as was the case with both MC-21 and SSJ-100. Naturally, full Russification of both is on track and the impact of that is much greater than mere invulnerability to proprietary claims from the combined West. It is strategic in terms of national security across the board, with independence from the West being a big prize. While PD-14 is already in serial production, the other crucial piece is also in the game:

The Russian Aviadvigatel PD-8 engine is being prepared to power Sukhoi Superjet 100 regional jets soon, but until then it must undergo a series of tests, including flight tests. As part of that stage, a power unit has been installed on a model Ilyushin IL-76 aircraft, which serves as a laboratory aircraft. As reported by our partner site Aeroin, in recent weeks, Russia has accelerated this project, which has become even more urgent due to Western sanctions imposed on Russian aviation following the invasion of Ukraine. These embargoes prevent the Russian aircraft industry from receiving components from Europe and North America. It must therefore accelerate import substitution.

And acceleration it did.  I am on record for years, ad nauseam--if you do not have your own engines, APU, avionics and other systems, you do not really have own commercial (or any other) aerospace industry, period. No matter how one tries to spin it but any aircraft is primarily a platform for the engines and everything related to them and that is the most complex and most advanced part. 

This is the set of avionics KRET developed already in 2015 (in Russian) and this is one of the suites which is used today, as an example, at newest IL-76MD-90A models. Here is how cockpits of new IL-76MD-90As look like.

There are some variations of that for TU-214s and naturally MC-21 cockpit looks like that. 

Generally, most commercial aircraft avionics suites look similar. 

And that is why I am constantly on record, COMAC C-919 is not going to compete with A-320 newest iterations, because it is in effect a Chinese version of A-320. Russian aircraft are a completely different game and that is why from the inception, once it became clear that both SSJ-100 turned out to be a very competitive plane and MC-21 started to emerge as a viable competitor to both A-320 family, not to speak of a grossly damaged B-737 line, all hell broke loose and both aircraft have been sanctioned non-stop. Well, guess what, it made Russian commercial aerospace stronger. And that is a very bad news for both Airbus and Boeing. Not to mention the fact that they lost voluminous Russian market. Stupid is as stupid does(c), remember this?  

Bernhard Of Moon Of Alabama Nails It.

Here is German whose opinion on Boeing I, being Russian myself, share completely. 

It is sad to see a once great company going down over the incompetence of such men.

My sentiment exactly. Has been such for many years. Boeing is more than just American company, for decades it was a symbol of great quality and great airliners. Yet, Bernhard is spot on when he writes:

Boeing had stopped the final assembly line of the 737 MAX because there was no more room to store the more than 400 produced but grounded new planes. It will take more than a year to clear that inventory. But Calhoun now wants to restart production even before the MAX is allowed back into the air. This is beyond silly:

He said Boeing plans to restart the 737 assembly lines in Renton months before the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approves a return to service to ensure that production can be restarted with maximum efficiency.“We’ll start it slow so we can practice and practice. That’s a bit of a silver lining in the [production] pause.”

That is an insult to Boeing workers. They do know how to build planes. They do not need more 'practice' but a management that is aware that pressuring workers will not produce better planes. But Calhoun is not interested the gritty details of manufacturing good airplanes. It is all about the shareholders, the only group that counts:

Calhoun said Boeing is not planning to cut or suspend the dividend because Boeing has the “financial capacity and capability to do the things we need to do.” Calhoun said he “will stay on that path unless something dramatic changes.”

So Boeing will take on $10 billion of additional debt to pay dividends and will hike is lobbying spending even while it does not have the cashflow to develop new airplanes.

Get it? It is all about dividends. But then again, who IS Mr. Calhoun? There is precious little about his REAL background except that his education is in accounting. Why I am not surprised with Boeing's not only current pathetic state but also a very dangerous one? The guy who is a bookkeeper (and yes, spare me this BS general title of "businessman") running the place which requires an enormous amount of STEM education and expertise. What the fvck are they doing to more than just national treasure but to an international symbol of air travel? They are literally killing the company. Here is another note-worthy point:

It takes at least 7 years and some $10 to $15 billions to create and certify an all new airplane. Airbus already has some 60% of the large jet market share with Boeing having some 40%. Pushing back the launch of the New Midsize Airplane (NMA) means that Boeing will have nothing new to offer throughout the next ten years. Without a new plane Boeing's market share will slip to 30% which is less than the minimum one third it needs to survive in the duopoly.

The MAX, though, is here to stay. Calhoun said he expects it to eventually reach parity with the Airbus A320neo. He dismissed a suggestion that the MAX may never fly again, or will be renamed to disguise its history, and said passengers’ confidence in the airplane will be restored.“I believe in this airplane,” he said. “I’m all in on it and the company’s all in on it.”

Well, here are some news for him: it is not just Airbus which is laughing all the way to the bank, B-737Max is not a competitor to Russian MC-21, which will inevitably replace ALL B-737s flying inside Russia (which also explains Irkut planning ramped-up production) and already has many firm contracts from Aeroflot, Red Wings and others but, as news have it (for admirers of China's progress it will be a very cold shower), other things come into play here. As rumor has it, Chinese, who already pushed own certification of their COMAC-919 back to 2021, may, actually, face a cold hard reality that this aircraft may have bigger problems than delay of certification. As Aviation Expert reports: 

Задержки при создании новых образцов авиатехники — это вполне распространенное явление. Ещё ни одна конструкция самолета не получилась с первого захода идеальной, без необходимости доработок. Однако неспособность реализовать такие доработки в течение уже длительного срока — серьезный удар по репутации Китая, как возможного нового игрока на мировом рынке производства воздушных судов, который вложил немалые средства в свою первую серьезную попытку составить конкуренцию Boeing и Airbus.  

Translation: Delays during creation of new samples of aviation technology are nothing new--it is a widespread phenomenon. Never in history new design ever achieved ideal from the first attempt, without necessity for improvements. However, inability to implement such improvements over such a long time--delivers a serious  blow to China's reputation as a new player on the global market of commercial aircraft, especially after investing such a massive effort into its first attempt to be competitive with Boeing and Airbus. 

Evidently some serious mistakes in calculations have been made, which affected data required to be sent to engine manufacturer CFM, plus, at this stage all COMAC 919 prototypes spent less than 20% of required 4, 200 hours in the air required for certification. As you may remember, I was skeptical about COMAC from the get go. COMAC's only competitive advantage is its allegedly lower cost, which, most likely, if this aircraft ever to enter large-scale production, will be "financed" by government. Meanwhile, Russia's MC-21 already has a preliminary certification from EASA and, what is very important, has a certified PD-14 own engine. So, you get my drift, do you? I'll give you a hint: SU-35, S-400 and now Russia helping China to develop Missile Attack Warning System. Well, after all, what is CR-929 with PD-35? 

Now, ask yourself a question what Airbus and UAC (United Aircraft Corporation) think about not only Russian market, but gigantic Chinese one, especially with Boeing being taken down by its incompetent management in the most important and profitable segment of narrow-body middle-range aircraft? Russia, sure as hell, knows that she will have some, initially small, share at Middle Eastern market, larger, most likely, at African one and she has a shot at a good slice of Chinese one once MC-21 goes on-line in 2021. Boeing, I think, doesn't have those 7+ years to develop something completely new instead of good but dated B-737 design. So, make your own calculations, including an increase of sanctions on Russia in a desperate attempt to delay a full russification of SSJ-100 and the launch of MC-21 into full-scale production. Russians do not really care anymore, plus, unlike Boeing, UAC features not only competent management, but extremely competent engineering corps and it really caters mostly to Russia's State as the most important shareholder. UAC doesn't see itself as a direct competitor on a global market, after all, here is the UAC's forecast, but it was in 2017--things changed since then dramatically. 

In 2017 nobody could have predicted, let's call it what it is, a catastrophe with Boeing which more and more looks to me as some deliberate attempts to sink a legendary and trusted aerospace giant. But then again, someone, it seems, wouldn't mind splitting the United States into few statelets. All this, as bizarre as it seems, feels like an invisible, behind the scenes, Liquidation Committee or is it just the logical conclusion to a short era of collapsing financial capitalism which cares only about "bottom line" and poor-poor fat cats shareholders who cannot afford another Ferrari (or Maserati) for their harem. I guess, we'll know the answer soon.      

The Bird Continues To Fly.

As Irkut Corporation informs (in Russian), MS-21 continues to fly and already has flown for the third time. The flight lasted 1.5 hours and included all diapason of speeds, including a cruising speed. That means that the landing gear was retracted and the aircraft flew high. This is rather very fast and intense test program and this tells a lot about air frame design. Comparison to Chinese COMAC C919 which, as far as I know, made her maiden and only flight on May 5 this year, is inevitable. Russia is pushing now for a full production cycle of MS-21 the moment it completes tests. 

As I already stated before, COMAC C919 is not a competition to Boeing's and Airbus' aircraft of the same class, MS-21 is. And here is a political twist. Russia, who is being sanctioned by US left and right, will most likely take a long awaited by many protectionist stance and will (granted that Irkut already has 175 firm prepaid orders and 110 more contracted) literally "replace", or, if one wishes, phase out B737s flying for Russian carriers. Chinese plan to do a similar thing with their C919, but, as I stated, it is not realistically a competitive aircraft. Initially, Russia will have issues--current Irkut facilities are capable of producing 20 aircraft a year, but the work has already started on expanding manufacturing to 70 aircraft a year. The conclusion? Sanctions are blessing for Russia and not in disguise. Considering successful tests of newest PD-14 engines, Russian commercial aviation didn't have it so good for itself since, probably, early 1980s. With regional IL-114 in plans for serial production in 2019, what happened with Russian commercial aviation can only be compared to the resurrection of Phoenix--it is an apt comparison. 

 

UPDATE: and the bird just can not stop flying, it seems. MS-21 flew on Sunday for the fourth time and, yes, with landing gear being "inside". 

  
This time, MS-21 was escorted by SU-30SM.  Irkut, obviously, is very confident in its aircraft.