I Might Have Rushed Today Re: Lula.

 Some very peculiar news. 

Москва. 25 октября. INTERFAX.RU - Каракас до последнего пытался предпринять все меры, чтобы на саммите БРИКС Венесуэлу включили в список стран-партнеров группы, однако этого не произошло из-за позиции Бразилии, пишет в пятницу EFE. Агентство напоминает, что бразильские власти обосновали отказ от придания Венесуэле статуса страны-партнера в связи с итогами выборов президента в Венесуэле, которые в Бразилии сочли несоответствующими демократическим принципам. В Венесуэле этот шаг назвали недружественным и противоречащим интересам граждан страны. Власти Венесуэлы заявили, что вето Бразилии является свидетельством ненависти, несогласия и вычеркивания страны, что продвигалось силовыми центрами Запада, а также препятствования на пути к сближению с БРИКС. EFE напоминает, что отношения между Каракасом и Бразилией ухудшились после президентских выборов в Венесуэле в конце июля 2024 года, когда оппозиция оспорила их результаты.

Translation:  Moscow. October 25. INTERFAX.RU - Caracas tried until the very end to take all measures to ensure that Venezuela was included in the list of partner countries of the group at the BRICS summit, but this did not happen due to Brazil's position, EFE writes on Friday. The agency recalls that the Brazilian authorities justified the refusal to grant Venezuela the status of a partner country in connection with the results of the presidential elections in Venezuela, which Brazil considered inconsistent with democratic principles. In Venezuela, this step was called unfriendly and contrary to the interests of the country's citizens. The Venezuelan authorities said that Brazil's veto is evidence of hatred, disagreement and the deletion of the country, which was promoted by Western power centers, as well as an obstacle to rapprochement with BRICS. EFE recalls that relations between Caracas and Brazil worsened after the presidential elections in Venezuela at the end of July 2024, when the opposition challenged their results.

That speaks volumes about Brazil and the fact that she did play a spoiler, especially if one considers that Venezuela's oil reserves are of global significance. Who's side is Brazil on? Here is part of the answer.

They Confabulate...

This is the only thing they can do. 

Russia—after suffering Western oil embargos and price caps on its oil and oil products, has shipped its first crude oil cargo to Brazil in its quest to find more outlets for its fossil fuels. The Aframax tanker Stratos Aurora is now less than 500 miles off the shore of Brazil, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data, carrying 650,000 barrels of Varandey crude oil from the Murmansk port. Russian oil hasn’t been shipped to Brazil since 2016, but sanctions on Russian crude oil, as well as the price cap, have made it difficult for the country to find outlets. 

I just returned from Russia and nowhere did I find any signs of "suffering". On the contrary, Russians overwhelmingly praise sanctions. It is also difficult to explain to average Western "academic" or journo that Russia is absolutely free in her decisions on oil output and goes about it as she wishes. If London and Washington want to send ships to "enforce" the price cap--they are welcome, let them see what happens. We all know that nothing could be done and price cap failed the first day it was introduced. Now, Russia and SA extended their output cut and here we are today. 

Meanwhile, Daniel Larison reacts to Walter Russel Mead's wet fantasies of "wearing Russia down". It has to be reiterated again that Mead is not an academic but shyster from what WSJ calls geopolitics, but let Larison speak:

Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead thinks that the right way to wear down Russia in a war of attrition is by attacking Russian interests in far-flung, peripheral areas around the world. Mead claims that “we operate in a target-rich environment” for bringing the “cost of war home to the Kremlin,” and he lays out a series of policies that are either unworkable, counterproductive or useless. Among other things, he calls for the U.S. to “roll up” the Wagner Group in the Sahel, work with Turkey and others to “make Mr. Putin’s presence in Syria ruinously expensive,” bring pressure to bear on Russian forces in Moldova, and “target Mr. Putin’s Latin American allies.”

Even assuming that it was practical and wise for the U.S. to do any of these things, it is hard to see how they would significantly impair Russia’s war effort or aid Ukraine in a war of attrition. If the U.S. managed to make things difficult enough for Russian forces and mercenaries in other parts of the world that it was no longer worth it for Moscow to keep them there, that would just lead to additional resources and manpower being redirected to fighting in Ukraine. It isn’t clear why Mead believes that the U.S. and “its allies in Europe and the Gulf” have the capabilities to eliminate Russian influence in the Sahel. French influence is in retreat in many countries, U.S. partners keep losing control in military coups, and so-called “allies” from the Gulf are not reliably on the same side as the U.S. in political and military crises across Africa. The problem wasn’t that the U.S. and its allies were “standing passively by” but that they were actively pursuing militarized policies that have repeatedly blown up in their faces. Russia has managed to exploit some of the resulting upheaval to its advantage.

Well, I have the answer why creatures like Mead, and even many in the outlet Larison published piece in--Responsible Statecraft--believe this. The answer is simple--99% "degrees" from US universities in history, political science, journalism, economics and other subjects like that are fraud and disqualify overwhelming majority of their bearers from any serious discussion on the subject matter, such as REAL strategy, warfare, resources management and the military history of the XX century. Mead is just a propagandist who has no tool kit to grasp those things, as for Russia Study field--I repeat myself ad nauseam. There is NO such field in the US anymore. 

I guess, the unpleasant truth of the US losing economic race to China and military one to Russia will take some time to get internalized, possibly by new US political elites, but even if to assume that, as many report (in Russian), Blinken was in Kiev trying to force Ze to the negotiating table with Russia, one has to keep in mind that Russia has no reasons whatsoever to negotiate anything with Kiev. Election cycle in the US is of no concern to Russia who has written Washington off no matter who comes to power. As for Mead--I have a suggestion, instead of "teaching" Clausewitz and Strategy, he may take basic classes on WWII history, not the BS he teaches, and how real economy works. I do not expect him succeeding studying modern warfare--too complex and requires graduate STEM degree (and clearance), but he may try. Hey, at 60 I learned some basic chords on piano and even know how to play The House of the Rising Sun. But, in all seriousness, most of US "geopolitical" and "strategy" academy should be fired and given jobs as greeters at the Walmart's entrances.

Sad Day For Brazil.

But that is how "investments" work nowadays--takeovers. 

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Boeing Co on Thursday said that after taking over Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA's passenger jet unit, it will call the division Boeing Brasil - Commercial, dropping one of Brazil's most iconic company names. The name change comes after Boeing agreed to pay $4.2 billion to buy 80% of Embraer's operation making passenger jets with fewer than 150 seats. Embraer will retain a 20% stake. That division is still Embraer's most profitable and considered a gold standard of Brazilian engineering.

Of course, rebranded Embraer will stay in Brazil, for now. But I can totally feel for Brazilians--it is their icon. It is akin to Ford Mustang, an American icon, being rebranded into Toyota, or, for that matter seeing Boeing being rebranded into, well, Embraer.   

After Airbus SE took a controlling stake in the C Series division of Bombardier Inc, which competes directly with Embraer's commercial jets, it rebranded the planes Airbus A220, in line with the branding of other Airbus planes. The twin takeovers effectively halted the aerospace ambitions of Canada and Brazil and left China as the main threat to the transatlantic duopoly, with Russia and Japan making slower inroads, analysts said. The Embraer name holds special meaning in Brazil, evoking its founding in 1969 as a state-run company that grew into a national champion and was privatized in 1994. Embraer is short for Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica or Brazilian Aeronautics Company. After the deal with Boeing, Embraer will still exist as a company focused on executive jets and defense. The deal with Boeing has been approved by shareholders but is still waiting on regulatory approval.

And here is the deal with commercial (and military too, to a certain degree) aerospace. While I agree with analyst (see highlighted in yellow) in terms of Bomardier and Embraer takeovers, and, as a consequence, removal of Canada and Brazil from competition, assessing Chinese commercial aerospace industry as a threat to Airbus-Boeing duopoly is an overstatement to say the least. It rings true ONLY for China's internal, granted gigantic, commercial aircraft market, that much is true. On international arena, however, Chinese COMAC is not a competitor to either Boeing, Airbus or what is coming soon from Russia, also let's not forget where major components for such aircraft as latest upgrades for B-747 or B-787 were designed--they were designed at Russia's Boeing engineering facility. Yes, Japan is getting into the commercial aircraft market but so far those attempts with Mitsubishi's Regional Jet (MRJ) are still tightly connected with the United States, not least through, inevitably, engines.

Yes, engines, yet again. It is them, not even the ability to design and manufacture aircraft, however high level skill this is, but the ability to provide a power-plant fro aircraft which define the game. Only four (FOUR) nations possess such a strategic ability: United States (PW, GE etc.), UK (Rolls-Royce), Russia (PS and PD series) and France (Safran, and LEAP--a JV between Safran and GE). Moreover, Russians finally had it with their JV with Safran (Snecma) hot parts of SAM146 jet engine for Sukhoi SSJ-100 and are going to completely Russify SSJ-100 from avionics to APU, including substituting SAM146s with fully Russian PD-10. So, as many times was pointed out by me--only those who produce modern cutting edge power-plant for commercial aircraft are the real players in commercial airspace. In other words--only those who possess a complete enclosed technological cycle, from R&D, manufacturing composites, metals, ability to design to electronics and engines, only those can withstand competition and, in fact, will lead it. For all its elegance and a proud history, Embraer aircraft had only Brazilian fuselage--everything else, including the heart of the aircraft--its power-plant--was of Western origin. Once Embraer was privatized, it became clear what will be its final fate. Brazilians are now denied even a partial credit for their most important high-tech proud product. It really is a shame and I am slightly sad.   

Shock To The System!

OK, Germany is OUT. A strange ring to it when pronouncing this. Germany's national football team, the 2014 Champions of the World, the famed and always, even when not at the top of its game, dangerous Bundesmachine, always a football Blitzkrieg juggernaut,  lost to South Korea today 2-0 and crushed out from the...drum roll...last place in its group at World Cup. Stunning. Yes, there is a statistics today which tells us that Title defenders fail to defend at early stages. But Germany? From the last place, losing to South Korea? This is a shock to the system and, in the same time, could be a good news for the game. 

Could this be a chance for Luka Modric and magnificent Croatia? They play a beautiful football. Or will Brazil, which is very happy today in its national schadenfreude, after being humiliated by these very Germans 7-1 at their domestic World Cup 4 years ago, try for a title? Or could it be some completely out of the left field new contender? After all, there is still Portugal and CR7 out there who can win anyone on any given day? Will European Champions try to ensure that CriRo enters the pantheon of the greatest who ever played the game on the highest international level? Belgium? Fascinating. This World Cup in Russia is filled with excitement and is completely unpredictable. I don't remember so much excitement in the air since 2006. But still, scheisse!