MS-21 "Ramped Up".

An interesting piece of news from OAK (United Aircraft Corporation--UAC) which wants to ramp-up its annual production of MS-21 aircraft from initially 70 to 120 a year (in Russian). 

"Мы рассматривает возможность международной кооперации по самолету МС-21. Наша задача - довести в будущем его ежегодное производство с 70 до 120 единиц", - сказал Слюсарь.

Translation: We consider a possibility of international cooperation in MS-21 program. Out task is to reach annual production of 120 units, stated Slyusar (CEO of OAK).  

The part on international cooperation should be made clear: Russia produces enough composites to satisfy requirements of Russian combat aviation and rates of 70 aircraft a year for MS-21 and whatever goes to SSJ-100 which is being "russified" very fast, from APU to avionics. Of course, there are other demand for composites, not least in a missile field. But commercial aircraft, of course, are a separate "animals" and require a number of serious conditions to be fulfilled when dealing, especially, with composite materials. Especially so when the number of disposable, that is replaceable,  parts ranging from engine gondolas to all kinds of fairings is very large. International cooperation in this respect is only natural.  

B-787 compositION. 

So, expense in composite materials for each aircraft is quite large. But why, one may ask, such a ramp-up in production. Does it have any relation to a snafu with B-737 Max? Of course, it does, but methinks it is just one of the reasons. The larger reason is in the fact of Putin starting a few days ago in Brasilia a countdown to US Dollar demise. And then this small piece of news (in Russian): Moldova asked Russia for a loan for infrastructure projects. Ah, that's warmer. Against the background of a "pedal to the metal" new budget which infuses massive funds into Russia's national projects, the news that Russia actually can finance very many major customers somehow got lost behind Western (pseudo)economic "analysis", but that is what really matters. Russia did it before, even as USSR, but modern Russia is different--she wants a serious collateral and then she is ready to finance a lot, something like purchase of Russian commercial aircraft by variety of customers. Iran? Sure--that is why SSJ-100 is being "russified" with such a speed--and then, of course, MS-21 which is already 80% Russian. 

Middle East? Why not! Asia? Of course, there will be takers for the state-of-the-art Russian commercial aircraft. Especially when Russia will provide a loan or a.... drum roll...Lend-Lease on good conditions. Russia CAN afford to do so now.  This may explain why OAK (UAC) suddenly decided to change target numbers. Believe me--there will be takers, including among Western composite materials manufacturers. And then, of course, there is Aeroflot, S7, Ural Airlines, you name it, who are in dire need for domestic aircraft. That is what behind Slyusar's statement he made in Dubai.  Just to refresh your memory a bit: remember this in 2008?

REYKJAVIK (Reuters) - Iceland took over its second largest bank, propped up a battered currency and sought on Tuesday a 4 billion euro ($5.44 billion) loan from Russia to help tackle a crisis threatening to overwhelm the island nation.

You can easily find yourself by googling a shitstorm which followed in Western media and think-tankdom after that. Well, times changed and many countries will ask Russia for financing of their "infrastructure" projects and Russia will gladly do so, with this teeny-weeny caveat that they will buy Russian very high value added products, many of which are, in fact, extremely competitive, while some are simply superior to anything West, let alone China, make. I bet you never heard about airports of Augsburg, Lubeck, Braunshweig  and Sylt are fully equipped and operate fully Russian designed and made Air Traffic Control Systems Galactica. I know, many people still cannot wrap their brains around the fact that Russia actually produces a shitload of world-class hi-tech, a real one. But, I guess, live and learn, and adapt.  

P.S. Nord Stream-2 may become operational already this (2019) year, says Russia's Energy Minister Novak. I can only imagine joy and exhilaration in Kiev from this news.

Sad Day For Brazil.

But that is how "investments" work nowadays--takeovers. 

SAO PAULO (Reuters) - Boeing Co on Thursday said that after taking over Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA's passenger jet unit, it will call the division Boeing Brasil - Commercial, dropping one of Brazil's most iconic company names. The name change comes after Boeing agreed to pay $4.2 billion to buy 80% of Embraer's operation making passenger jets with fewer than 150 seats. Embraer will retain a 20% stake. That division is still Embraer's most profitable and considered a gold standard of Brazilian engineering.

Of course, rebranded Embraer will stay in Brazil, for now. But I can totally feel for Brazilians--it is their icon. It is akin to Ford Mustang, an American icon, being rebranded into Toyota, or, for that matter seeing Boeing being rebranded into, well, Embraer.   

After Airbus SE took a controlling stake in the C Series division of Bombardier Inc, which competes directly with Embraer's commercial jets, it rebranded the planes Airbus A220, in line with the branding of other Airbus planes. The twin takeovers effectively halted the aerospace ambitions of Canada and Brazil and left China as the main threat to the transatlantic duopoly, with Russia and Japan making slower inroads, analysts said. The Embraer name holds special meaning in Brazil, evoking its founding in 1969 as a state-run company that grew into a national champion and was privatized in 1994. Embraer is short for Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica or Brazilian Aeronautics Company. After the deal with Boeing, Embraer will still exist as a company focused on executive jets and defense. The deal with Boeing has been approved by shareholders but is still waiting on regulatory approval.

And here is the deal with commercial (and military too, to a certain degree) aerospace. While I agree with analyst (see highlighted in yellow) in terms of Bomardier and Embraer takeovers, and, as a consequence, removal of Canada and Brazil from competition, assessing Chinese commercial aerospace industry as a threat to Airbus-Boeing duopoly is an overstatement to say the least. It rings true ONLY for China's internal, granted gigantic, commercial aircraft market, that much is true. On international arena, however, Chinese COMAC is not a competitor to either Boeing, Airbus or what is coming soon from Russia, also let's not forget where major components for such aircraft as latest upgrades for B-747 or B-787 were designed--they were designed at Russia's Boeing engineering facility. Yes, Japan is getting into the commercial aircraft market but so far those attempts with Mitsubishi's Regional Jet (MRJ) are still tightly connected with the United States, not least through, inevitably, engines.

Yes, engines, yet again. It is them, not even the ability to design and manufacture aircraft, however high level skill this is, but the ability to provide a power-plant fro aircraft which define the game. Only four (FOUR) nations possess such a strategic ability: United States (PW, GE etc.), UK (Rolls-Royce), Russia (PS and PD series) and France (Safran, and LEAP--a JV between Safran and GE). Moreover, Russians finally had it with their JV with Safran (Snecma) hot parts of SAM146 jet engine for Sukhoi SSJ-100 and are going to completely Russify SSJ-100 from avionics to APU, including substituting SAM146s with fully Russian PD-10. So, as many times was pointed out by me--only those who produce modern cutting edge power-plant for commercial aircraft are the real players in commercial airspace. In other words--only those who possess a complete enclosed technological cycle, from R&D, manufacturing composites, metals, ability to design to electronics and engines, only those can withstand competition and, in fact, will lead it. For all its elegance and a proud history, Embraer aircraft had only Brazilian fuselage--everything else, including the heart of the aircraft--its power-plant--was of Western origin. Once Embraer was privatized, it became clear what will be its final fate. Brazilians are now denied even a partial credit for their most important high-tech proud product. It really is a shame and I am slightly sad.