They Confabulate...

This is the only thing they can do. 

Russia—after suffering Western oil embargos and price caps on its oil and oil products, has shipped its first crude oil cargo to Brazil in its quest to find more outlets for its fossil fuels. The Aframax tanker Stratos Aurora is now less than 500 miles off the shore of Brazil, according to Bloomberg ship tracking data, carrying 650,000 barrels of Varandey crude oil from the Murmansk port. Russian oil hasn’t been shipped to Brazil since 2016, but sanctions on Russian crude oil, as well as the price cap, have made it difficult for the country to find outlets. 

I just returned from Russia and nowhere did I find any signs of "suffering". On the contrary, Russians overwhelmingly praise sanctions. It is also difficult to explain to average Western "academic" or journo that Russia is absolutely free in her decisions on oil output and goes about it as she wishes. If London and Washington want to send ships to "enforce" the price cap--they are welcome, let them see what happens. We all know that nothing could be done and price cap failed the first day it was introduced. Now, Russia and SA extended their output cut and here we are today. 

Meanwhile, Daniel Larison reacts to Walter Russel Mead's wet fantasies of "wearing Russia down". It has to be reiterated again that Mead is not an academic but shyster from what WSJ calls geopolitics, but let Larison speak:

Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead thinks that the right way to wear down Russia in a war of attrition is by attacking Russian interests in far-flung, peripheral areas around the world. Mead claims that “we operate in a target-rich environment” for bringing the “cost of war home to the Kremlin,” and he lays out a series of policies that are either unworkable, counterproductive or useless. Among other things, he calls for the U.S. to “roll up” the Wagner Group in the Sahel, work with Turkey and others to “make Mr. Putin’s presence in Syria ruinously expensive,” bring pressure to bear on Russian forces in Moldova, and “target Mr. Putin’s Latin American allies.”

Even assuming that it was practical and wise for the U.S. to do any of these things, it is hard to see how they would significantly impair Russia’s war effort or aid Ukraine in a war of attrition. If the U.S. managed to make things difficult enough for Russian forces and mercenaries in other parts of the world that it was no longer worth it for Moscow to keep them there, that would just lead to additional resources and manpower being redirected to fighting in Ukraine. It isn’t clear why Mead believes that the U.S. and “its allies in Europe and the Gulf” have the capabilities to eliminate Russian influence in the Sahel. French influence is in retreat in many countries, U.S. partners keep losing control in military coups, and so-called “allies” from the Gulf are not reliably on the same side as the U.S. in political and military crises across Africa. The problem wasn’t that the U.S. and its allies were “standing passively by” but that they were actively pursuing militarized policies that have repeatedly blown up in their faces. Russia has managed to exploit some of the resulting upheaval to its advantage.

Well, I have the answer why creatures like Mead, and even many in the outlet Larison published piece in--Responsible Statecraft--believe this. The answer is simple--99% "degrees" from US universities in history, political science, journalism, economics and other subjects like that are fraud and disqualify overwhelming majority of their bearers from any serious discussion on the subject matter, such as REAL strategy, warfare, resources management and the military history of the XX century. Mead is just a propagandist who has no tool kit to grasp those things, as for Russia Study field--I repeat myself ad nauseam. There is NO such field in the US anymore. 

I guess, the unpleasant truth of the US losing economic race to China and military one to Russia will take some time to get internalized, possibly by new US political elites, but even if to assume that, as many report (in Russian), Blinken was in Kiev trying to force Ze to the negotiating table with Russia, one has to keep in mind that Russia has no reasons whatsoever to negotiate anything with Kiev. Election cycle in the US is of no concern to Russia who has written Washington off no matter who comes to power. As for Mead--I have a suggestion, instead of "teaching" Clausewitz and Strategy, he may take basic classes on WWII history, not the BS he teaches, and how real economy works. I do not expect him succeeding studying modern warfare--too complex and requires graduate STEM degree (and clearance), but he may try. Hey, at 60 I learned some basic chords on piano and even know how to play The House of the Rising Sun. But, in all seriousness, most of US "geopolitical" and "strategy" academy should be fired and given jobs as greeters at the Walmart's entrances.

Why Did Biden Call Putin.

Simple: to make sure that in case false flag happens (which is most likely) the US assets and "decision-making centers" are not annihilated. But that is not how it is going to work. While Biden declares:

According to a White House readout of the call, Biden warned Putin that the US and its allies would “respond decisively and impose swift and severe costs on Russia” in the event of an invasion, and that such military action would “diminish Russia’s standing” internationally. Biden, who has thus far ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine, said that should diplomacy fail, America is “equally prepared for other scenarios.”

Both sides know that militarily the US (and NATO) are impotent and Russia's strategic ambivalence is what drives Washington crazy. After all, Russia may decide to go all in, but in this case it is not going to be 404 only. Who said that Baltic States can not be "included" in the package? There are so many possibilities. As RT reports further:

Should Russia take military action, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Saturday of a “resolute, massive and united trans-Atlantic response.” However, President Biden has thus far ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine, choosing instead to send thousands to Poland and Romania instead. Before speaking to Biden, Putin spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron by phone for nearly two hours. French officials told AFP that Putin wants an independent Ukraine that would remain out of the NATO alliance, something Western leaders have ruled out. Moscow has long insisted that NATO arms on its border would constitute an unacceptable security risk.

I am on record, Russia is not afraid of "sanctions" and there could be no any military response by NATO because the only response the US can offer militarily is a nuclear one, but even the most ludicrous hawks in D.C. want to live, with the exception of a dozen or two  of total fanatics in US Admin and Congress. My guess will be, since, as I am also in record ad nauseam, US "strategists" (Council on Foreign Relations, Atlantic Council, AEI etc.) are one trick ponies, they developed a "strategy" (or, rather, strategery) which, as is always the case with cowardly bullies, was designed based on a faulty "understanding" of conflict and lack of knowledge of Russia, and the hope was for an initial bullying effect on Russia. They couldn't calculate consequences because they do not have situational awareness. Russia responded in kind and continues to show a very big stick protruding from behind Russia's back. And now, the US is cornered and is in panic mode, because Russia's military exercises are a very good demonstrator of a military capability which IS excessive for hypothetical "invasion" of 404 but also sufficient to achieve much larger objectives. And Washington doesn't know what those objectives may be. They panic now, because they have no idea. Staying in the dark is extremely unpleasant.

Milley's called Gerasimov yesterday for a reason. Russia has enough forces to smash NATO in Eastern Europe without much effort. Here is just one example:

MOSCOW, February 12. /TASS/. Russia has handed a note to US military attache in connection with the US nuclear-powered submarine’s incident in Russia’s waters near the Kuril Islands, the Defense Ministry said on Saturday. "On February 12, a representative of the office of the military attache for defense issues at the US Embassy in Moscow has been handed over a note at the Main Directorate of the International Military Cooperation of Russia’s Defense Ministry in connection with the violation of Russia’s state border by the US Navy’s submarine," the statement said.

Submarines in the exercise areas are nothing new, Russia, US, UK do this all the time, what is new is that this one was detected and tracked within Russia's territorial waters.  

According to the ministry, a Virginia-class submarine belonging to the US Navy was detected on February 12, 2022 at 10.40 (Moscow Time) in the area of the Pacific Fleet’s drills near Iturup Island of the Kuril Islands. Under the guiding documents on protection of the Russian state border in the underwater environment, the crew of the Pacific Fleet’s frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov used appropriate means. The US submarine started a self-propelled simulator to split the target image on radar and acoustic control means into two parts and retreated from Russian territorial waters at a maximum speed, the ministry said.

And this very public move by Russia was also done for a reason--to demonstrate that there are enough forces to deal with any threat. Russia plans to start the exercises of a nuclear triad pretty soon too (in Russian). So, a lot of firepower on display. Scary, eh?