A Short Note On Being Ungovernable.

I already expressed my opinion on the US handler of Syria Mr. Jeffrey before: 

Jeffrey is delusional and is very butt-hurt, possibly because of his utter professional and human inadequacy, which is expected from a man with background in management and a member of "National Security" team of W (we all know how "well" that played out) and a burden of "victory" in Vietnam War with which utter irrational hatred of Russians comes naturally and, in fact, is a requirement;  enough to recall another American Vietnam War "hero", late John McCain. Obviously Jeffrey's deal with Syria is not to fight terrorism but to support Al Qaeda (and its many iterations) operations there. In general--anything to not allow Syria (and Russia) to defeat Islamic terrorism there. He even speaks openly about it. Jeffery, an infantry officer in Vietnam, then some CIA "spook", in addition to his "diplomatic" background, is a 74 year old and, obviously, a cranky man who does not understand modern warfare and, as is expected from US "experts" in Russia, has no knowledge of real Russia. Nor, obviously, he knows his own country, the United States that is, since he still thinks that the United States is this unstoppable military juggernaut which....lost most of its wars. That is why this senior citizen is so eager to start the war with Russia. There are many like him in all kinds of D.C. institutions. 

Jeffrey is an Exhibit A of the United States being ungovernable and he confirmed this just recently. 

Four years after signing the now-infamous “Never Trump” letter condemning then-presidential candidate Donald Trump as a danger to America, retiring diplomat Jim Jeffrey is recommending that the incoming Biden administration stick with Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East. But even as he praises the president’s support of what he describes as a successful “realpolitik” approach to the region, he acknowledges that his team routinely misled senior leaders about troop levels in Syria. “We were always playing shell games to not make clear to our leadership how many troops we had there,” Jeffrey said in an interview. The actual number of troops in northeast Syria is “a lot more than” the roughly two hundred troops Trump initially agreed to leave there in 2019.

You see, that is why the United States is non-agreement capable and that is why Russia simply doesn't take US political and the so called national (in)security establishment seriously. This establishment not only is actively involved in the sabotage of the remnants of the Republic, it actually lies and misleads (a more refined euphemism for lying) the POTUS. What is most remarkable--these people they never get punished or are held responsible for what amounts to... well, find the definition of this yourself. For Russians, the only parties with which any kind of professional communications are possible are US Armed Forces and, at some level, intelligence organizations, especially in terms of the ongoing exchange of information on terrorism. Any bloviation from the US "diplomats" on Realpolitk, such as Jeffrey's sheer delusions, can not be taken seriously and as I am on record all the time, they are so completely detached from reality "on the ground" that no amount of the geopolitical fluffy rhetoric and platitudes can obfuscate a simple fact of the US political top being completely disoriented. Not surprising at all--they lie to each-other non-stop. Jeffrey proved this, yet again, by having the audacity to parade US governance dysfunction and lack of professionalism as a virtue. Hey, what do I know, Jeffrey says:

“That’s the nature of realpolitik and great power foreign policy.”

Well, if Mr. Jeffrey says so, I guess it must be so. But this is precisely "great power policy", or whatever the chaos and corruption passes for it in D.C. which helped greatly to bankrupt the country and bring the United States to where it is today. It is not a good place, to put it mildly. But I am sure Mr. Jeffrey will find the way to spin even this disaster.  

Siluanov Sings A Song.

Among most hated people in Russia who are associated closely with a catastrophe of 1990s and the so called "liberal" reforms, and who still remain important government figures, two stand out. One is a chairman of Russia's Central Bank Elvira Nabiulina and Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. I omit here all kinds of freaks such as German Gref or Anatoly Chubais who are not government employees, nor Alexei Kudrin is really a person who decides much at his position of a Chairman of the Accounting Chamber, albeit, he is an excellent auditor and that, realistically, is where he should remain. Anton Siluanov, however, is a permanent fixture of Russian government for years and years and he is a designated main "liberal" there. It is more remarkable then to hear such admissions from him such as this (made around 10 days ago) in his interview to Vedomosti: 

"Лет пять назад, если бы нефть Urals стоила дешевле 15 долларов - то есть бюджет не получает ни копейки нефтегазовых доходов, - это был бы кризис. А сейчас на нефть уже не так обращают внимание, потому что мы создали необходимые финансовые буферы и даже при цене 10 долларов проживем. Это прошлая война, и к ней мы подготовлены, а сегодня перед нами вызов абсолютно нового масштаба.... cейчас перед нами новые задачи – защита здоровья и жизни людей"

Translation: About five years ago, if Urals brand of oil would have had a price of $15--meaning the the budget wouldn't have received a cent of oil-gas profits--that would have been crisis. Nowadays, we don't pay attention to oil that much, because all necessary financial buffers have been created and even with the price of $10 per barrel we would have survived. That is the past war and we are prepared to it, today we have a challenge of absolutely new scale... now our main task is defending health and lives of people. 

It is down right fascinating hearing a person with such background speaking in these terms and increasingly changing the modality of this rather new political tune. This change reflects, obviously, a fundamental shift which occurred within Russian political class against the background of COVID-19. Urals, as of now, fluctuates around $29-30 a barrel, a price, which is fairly comfortable for Russia's budget (and economy), not to mention the geopolitical fallout from Saudis shredding their budget while not forgetting to buy US assets, including in US energy. Funny world we all live in. This world being funny, however, does not negate a grim reality, which was predicted, and cannot be denied anymore:

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- American oil producers have cut much more output than you think. Their reaction to market forces has been bigger than official data suggest, and that means the U.S. is actually working alongside Saudi Arabia, Russia and other big oil producers, to help balance oil supply and demand — even if that wasn’t quite what President Donald Trump intended. Two sets of data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that crude production is now about 11.6 million barrels a day, down by between 1.2 million and 1.4 million barrels a day, or roughly 10%, from plateau levels reached over the just-ended winter, depending on whether you use the weekly or the monthly numbers.

Just read the whole article and at this stage keep in mind this simple fact that the issue is NOT about if it is now 2.4 million barrels per day the US oil cut--not at all--but if, as also was predicted, the cut will be along the lines of somewhere between 5-6.5 mbpds. That is the issue, once the US will resign to the fact that it is back to being net-importer of energy. The fact is, no matter what President Trump intended, the economic and geopolitical reality is ruthless--it is not affected by lies, spin, misreporting of many Western media, unless we are talking about some segments of Western clueless public, and reality is constituted by a combination and interplay of factors many of which never make out into the light of public attention. Or putting it in simple lingo--Russians became better, much better, capitalists than Americans. They also retained most of skills in running the country with a high level of government intervention, when needed. This is the lesson in adapting which probably will not be learned. In real world silly intentions and faith in a magic ability to wish problems away do not work. Never did, albeit some in US still believe in this "magic", like this moron who passes in the US for "diplomat", who was charged with "fighting" ISIS. 

Asked why the American public should tolerate US involvement in Syria, Special Envoy James Jeffrey points out the small US footprint in the fight against ISIS. "This isn't Afghanistan. This isn't Vietnam. This isn't a quagmire. My job is to make it a quagmire for the Russians."

This is everything one needs to know about US foreign policy both in economic and military terms, but then again, one is free to browse the whole thesis by this cretin here. It is a tour de force of sheer incompetence and delusion. But then again, US has a rich history of supporting all kinds of humanitarian terrorists, so it is not surprising that this glorious tradition is preserved by people like Jeffrey and his ilk. In the end, it is also possible to declare in media anything one wants, facts on the ground be damned. It seems the neocon schizophrenia is a feature of the American political discourse and it will run the US into the ground--in the end, it is not far from its final destination. As one pundit observed:

On a personal level, most of these neoconservatives turned Never-Trumpers are very nice people. I’ve known many of them for years. They are serious about their faith, family, and country, and treat others with respect. But politics isn’t about being nice, it’s about the real impact of policy on people’s lives—both at home and abroad. By any measurable standard, their careers are failures. Their policies have killed, yes, literally killed, hundreds of thousands, and they should not be taken seriously.

Well, he describes here typical psychopaths--a dominant type in US politics and in the world turned upside down, failure IS success, and murder IS a gift of life. After all, many Nazi leaders were excellent family men and cared deeply about their faith, country and treated others with respect. The only difference--they WERE taken seriously by others and ended up on the stand as war criminals, responsible for tens of millions killed. People like Jefferey--and they infest D.C.--may end up helping to kill hundreds of millions, not to speak of billions. In this case, we may, if we survive, state that their careers were a total success.

Turks Destroyed 8 Pantsirs.

Yes, yes, that is what Turkey declared in Brussels and I think they, out of traditional humbleness, lowered numbers of destroyed S1 Pantsir AD systems dramatically. I think there were at least 25-30 those systems destroyed together with those 3,500 SAA soldiers and, probably, couple battalions of Russian SSOs. In related news, before lunch I was Napoleon, after lunch I became Marcus Aurelius. Turkish baloney and butt-hurt from what they experienced in Idlib is such that they don't see anything wrong with simply making shit up. So much so, that Russia's Ministry of Defense was forced to flatly debunk those fairy tales. In its statement Russian MoD underscored:

"Представленные главе Турецкой Республики оценки боевой эффективности применения ударных БПЛА в провинции Идлиб, якобы сумевших уничтожить восемь сирийских зенитных ракетно-пушечных комплексов "Панцирь", не соответствуют действительности и являются более чем преувеличением"

Translation:  Assessments of combat effectiveness of strike UAVs in Idlib Province, presented to the head of Turkish Republic, alleging the destruction of eight Syrian gun-missile complexes "Pantsir" do not correspond to reality and are more than just exaggeration". 

Truth is, only four S1s have been deployed around Idlib, two were damaged and repaired. Most of SAA's S1s remained deployed around Damascus and didn't take part in operations in Idlib. But never mind, as long as it is stated that it happened, it DID happen in accordance to NATO's combat doctrine which is rigged towards media and brainwashing, not fighting the actual war against competent adversary. The butt-hurt in Turkey is understandable, but it wouldn't be completed without this S-400 soap opera.

ANKARA (Reuters) - The United States has offered to sell Turkey its Patriot missile defense system if Ankara promises not to operate a rival Russian system, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said, in what he called a significant softening in Washington's position. Two Turkish officials told Reuters that Turkey was evaluating the U.S. offer but that Ankara had not changed its plans for the Russian S-400 systems, which it has said it will start to activate next month. In Washington, the Pentagon said that U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper had not changed his position on the issue, which was: "Turkey is not going to receive a Patriot battery unless it returns the S-400."

Erdogan was in Brussels to "report" on Turkey's great victory in Idlib. Meanwhile lunatic "Ambassador" Jeffrey was thinking on:

Jeffrey also said they had considered possible responses should Russia and the Syrian government break a ceasefire in Idlib, officials said. He suggested other NATO states could individually or as an alliance provide military support to help Turkey. But he ruled out sending ground troops and said there still needed to be a resolution to the S-400 issue for the security relationship to move forward. "You can forget ground troops. Turkey has demonstrated that it and its opposition forces are more than capable of holding ground on their own," Jeffrey said. "The issue is the situation in the air and it's what we are looking at," he said. Washington did not believe that Russia and Syrian had any interest in a permanent ceasefire in Idlib, he said. "They are out to get a military victory in Syria and our goal is to make it difficult for them to do that," Jeffrey said. "Our goal is...to make them think twice. If they ignore our warnings and preparations and move forward, then we will react as rapidly as possible in consultation with our NATO and European allies on what the package of sanctions and other reactions will be."

Jeffrey is delusional and is very butt-hurt, possibly because of his utter professional and human inadequacy, which is expected from a man with background in management and a member of "National Security" team of W (we all know how "well" that played out) and a burden of "victory" in Vietnam War with which utter irrational hatred of Russians comes naturally and, in fact, is a requirement;  enough to recall another American Vietnam War "hero", late John McCain. Obviously Jeffrey's deal with Syria is not to fight terrorism but to support Al Qaeda (and its many iterations) operations there. In general--anything to not allow Syria (and Russia) to defeat Islamic terrorism there. He even speaks openly about it. Jeffery, an infantry officer in Vietnam, then some CIA "spook", in addition to his "diplomatic" background, is a 74 year old and, obviously, cranky man who does not understand modern warfare and, as is expected from US "experts" in Russia, has no knowledge of real Russia. Nor, obviously, he knows his own country, the United States that is, since he still thinks that the United States is this unstoppable military juggernaut which....lost most of its wars. That is why this senior citizen is so eager to start the war with Russia. There are many like him in all kinds of D.C. institutions. 

Highlighted in yellow is a very good indicator of a depth of a delusion this whole cabal of US "strategists" resides in: sanctions are good for Russia. But as was demonstrated in the last 72 hours, Russia can also "sanction" back and that shakes the bejesus out of not only the US, but global economy. But here is the larger issue: how many still rational and competent people are left out there in the US governing institutions? How many of them have real strategic awareness and I am not talking about Mnuchin suddenly having an urge to talk to Russians on "investments" and "sanctions".  Mnuchin is a bankster who understands only debit and credit, black and red, and when he sees red he (and his ilk) react, in pain. I am talking about people who have any strategic vision based on reality. Whole American geopolitical thought in the last 30 years is a permanent record of one failure after another. US "diplomacy" is a laughing stock of the world, US military, ask Iran. Economically? You all know what is going on. How this all could have gone so wrong, so fast? I have a metaphysical answer for that--exceeding established limit on a number of ass-holes populating governing institutions.  It all comes down, in the end, to how many decent, honorable, honest that is, people are still out there and I'd say not many. In final analysis these are always human choices we make, which count most towards the final outcome. Or, as beloved by me Barnett stated: 

… swift decline in British vigor at home and the failure to exploit the empire were not owing to some inevitable senescent process of history....That cause was a political doctrine.... The doctrine was liberalism, which criticized and finally demolished the traditional conception of the nation-state as a collective organism, a community, and asserted instead the primacy of individual. According to liberal thinking a nation was no more than so many human atoms who happened to live under the same set of laws.... It was Adam Smith who formulated the doctrine of Free Trade, the keystone of liberalism, which was to exercise a long-live and baneful effect on British power.... Adam Smith attacked the traditional “mercantilist” belief that a nation should be generally self-supporting. 

We all will pay one way or another for an expected and predicted and ongoing as I type it collapse of liberalism, it is just that one cannot escape a desire to see some of the most ardent enablers of liberalism, who have their hands soaked in blood, be seen behind bars or in a front of a firing squad. Some of them know today that this is not anymore beyond the realm of possible and will try to light the world on fire, thinking that under the cover of ensuing chaos they can make an escape. But I know for sure now that there are those who keep the score. Just listen about "We can repeat":