Siluanov Sings A Song.

Among most hated people in Russia who are associated closely with a catastrophe of 1990s and the so called "liberal" reforms, and who still remain important government figures, two stand out. One is a chairman of Russia's Central Bank Elvira Nabiulina and Russia's Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. I omit here all kinds of freaks such as German Gref or Anatoly Chubais who are not government employees, nor Alexei Kudrin is really a person who decides much at his position of a Chairman of the Accounting Chamber, albeit, he is an excellent auditor and that, realistically, is where he should remain. Anton Siluanov, however, is a permanent fixture of Russian government for years and years and he is a designated main "liberal" there. It is more remarkable then to hear such admissions from him such as this (made around 10 days ago) in his interview to Vedomosti: 

"Лет пять назад, если бы нефть Urals стоила дешевле 15 долларов - то есть бюджет не получает ни копейки нефтегазовых доходов, - это был бы кризис. А сейчас на нефть уже не так обращают внимание, потому что мы создали необходимые финансовые буферы и даже при цене 10 долларов проживем. Это прошлая война, и к ней мы подготовлены, а сегодня перед нами вызов абсолютно нового масштаба.... cейчас перед нами новые задачи – защита здоровья и жизни людей"

Translation: About five years ago, if Urals brand of oil would have had a price of $15--meaning the the budget wouldn't have received a cent of oil-gas profits--that would have been crisis. Nowadays, we don't pay attention to oil that much, because all necessary financial buffers have been created and even with the price of $10 per barrel we would have survived. That is the past war and we are prepared to it, today we have a challenge of absolutely new scale... now our main task is defending health and lives of people. 

It is down right fascinating hearing a person with such background speaking in these terms and increasingly changing the modality of this rather new political tune. This change reflects, obviously, a fundamental shift which occurred within Russian political class against the background of COVID-19. Urals, as of now, fluctuates around $29-30 a barrel, a price, which is fairly comfortable for Russia's budget (and economy), not to mention the geopolitical fallout from Saudis shredding their budget while not forgetting to buy US assets, including in US energy. Funny world we all live in. This world being funny, however, does not negate a grim reality, which was predicted, and cannot be denied anymore:

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- American oil producers have cut much more output than you think. Their reaction to market forces has been bigger than official data suggest, and that means the U.S. is actually working alongside Saudi Arabia, Russia and other big oil producers, to help balance oil supply and demand — even if that wasn’t quite what President Donald Trump intended. Two sets of data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that crude production is now about 11.6 million barrels a day, down by between 1.2 million and 1.4 million barrels a day, or roughly 10%, from plateau levels reached over the just-ended winter, depending on whether you use the weekly or the monthly numbers.

Just read the whole article and at this stage keep in mind this simple fact that the issue is NOT about if it is now 2.4 million barrels per day the US oil cut--not at all--but if, as also was predicted, the cut will be along the lines of somewhere between 5-6.5 mbpds. That is the issue, once the US will resign to the fact that it is back to being net-importer of energy. The fact is, no matter what President Trump intended, the economic and geopolitical reality is ruthless--it is not affected by lies, spin, misreporting of many Western media, unless we are talking about some segments of Western clueless public, and reality is constituted by a combination and interplay of factors many of which never make out into the light of public attention. Or putting it in simple lingo--Russians became better, much better, capitalists than Americans. They also retained most of skills in running the country with a high level of government intervention, when needed. This is the lesson in adapting which probably will not be learned. In real world silly intentions and faith in a magic ability to wish problems away do not work. Never did, albeit some in US still believe in this "magic", like this moron who passes in the US for "diplomat", who was charged with "fighting" ISIS. 

Asked why the American public should tolerate US involvement in Syria, Special Envoy James Jeffrey points out the small US footprint in the fight against ISIS. "This isn't Afghanistan. This isn't Vietnam. This isn't a quagmire. My job is to make it a quagmire for the Russians."

This is everything one needs to know about US foreign policy both in economic and military terms, but then again, one is free to browse the whole thesis by this cretin here. It is a tour de force of sheer incompetence and delusion. But then again, US has a rich history of supporting all kinds of humanitarian terrorists, so it is not surprising that this glorious tradition is preserved by people like Jeffrey and his ilk. In the end, it is also possible to declare in media anything one wants, facts on the ground be damned. It seems the neocon schizophrenia is a feature of the American political discourse and it will run the US into the ground--in the end, it is not far from its final destination. As one pundit observed:

On a personal level, most of these neoconservatives turned Never-Trumpers are very nice people. I’ve known many of them for years. They are serious about their faith, family, and country, and treat others with respect. But politics isn’t about being nice, it’s about the real impact of policy on people’s lives—both at home and abroad. By any measurable standard, their careers are failures. Their policies have killed, yes, literally killed, hundreds of thousands, and they should not be taken seriously.

Well, he describes here typical psychopaths--a dominant type in US politics and in the world turned upside down, failure IS success, and murder IS a gift of life. After all, many Nazi leaders were excellent family men and cared deeply about their faith, country and treated others with respect. The only difference--they WERE taken seriously by others and ended up on the stand as war criminals, responsible for tens of millions killed. People like Jefferey--and they infest D.C.--may end up helping to kill hundreds of millions, not to speak of billions. In this case, we may, if we survive, state that their careers were a total success.

So, Was Financial Times Right?

It is sometimes difficult to convey to many people who reside in Manichean world that the world is not Manichean and has a huge variety of shades and colors, this world also doesn't move linearly. The rumor has it now that Mr. Kudrin was offered and accepted a job of the head of the Russia's Accounting Chamber—a close relative of the US Government Accountability Office. So, was the Financial Times then right about Kudrin being offered some important government post or, as NYT (known for its "competence" in Russian affairs, wink, wink) elaborated:

Whether Mr. Putin shifts gears on economic policy hinges on the possible appointment of a liberal economist, Aleksei L. Kudrin, a former finance minister, to a new post as economic adviser, analysts said. Kremlin hard-liners oppose Mr. Kudrin for advocating an easing of tensions with the West, as well as efforts to revive trade. Mr. Kudrin has also argued for raising taxes and the retirement age to shore up the budget.

Pay attention to what all this cabal of Western media wants—they want Kudrin as an "adviser" and as someone who, in effect, guides economic policies in Russia. This is not to speak of West's wet dream of having Russia "easing" (which is tantamount to surrender) so called "tensions" with, primarily, Washington. I have some bad news then for NYT and US rabidly Russophobic policy-makers—Kudrin is not Russian government per se. Why? Very simple:

1. Position of what amounts to American analog of the Comptroller General is not related to any policy-making or "advising" Russia's government, let alone President, for a simple reason—Russia's Accounting Chamber is NOT part of the government and is, as it is in the US, a part of legislative power, that is an organ of the Federal Assembly of Russia. If I wanted to remove Kudrin away from Kremlin and Russian White House (the seat of government) I would have found no better place than put him into this position. After all, this post was offered to him by…State Duma's United Russia party. 

2. Russia's Accounting Chamber has no real power except for making Predstavlenie (literally—Presentation) to Federal Assembly (State Duma + Federation Council) plus it has power to force some specific firms and organizations to properly use funds in accordance to adopted State Budget to formation of which it has virtually no relation. It exists merely to oversee Budget's implementation for Legislative Branch of Russia.

And here comes the main issue of Russia—Russia is NOT the United States where US Congress holds a real power of purse and all US internal politics revolves around the White House and Congress fighting each-other for every penny. This is absolutely NOT the case in Russia because:

a) Putin

b) Putin

c) Putin and Medvedev who threw Kudrin out of government in 2011

d) It is Russia

It is Kremlin which holds an overwhelming power over Duma and long ago turned the process of budget's approval into formality, especially now when Duma will rubber stump anything Kremlin, or Russia's government, under Kremlin's supervision, will present. Why so? Because United Russia party exists as "party of power" in Duma only while it stresses its close association to Vladimir Putin. Once this stops being the case (theoretically), this will be the end of this "party", so they know the hand that feeds them. After all, Putin has his nation behind him, United Russia, well, not so much. 

So, here it is—looks like Kudrin will get this post and will do what he always was good at, when during his tenure as Russia's Finance Minister was called an "accountant". He will count budget money at the places where they are being spent—a perfect job for Kudrin. But here is another question—who "oversees" Accounting Chamber in Russia? Well, do you remember what organization Vladimir Putin is from? Do on-going processes of purging Russia's political top from corrupt people tell us anything? Absolutely. Just last week yet another batch of high level bureaucracy was sent packing. 

So, no, there will be no "negotiations" with the West, there will be no "surrender", nor will there be any Kudrin's "advice" on how to formulate economic strategy. By far more important news are of Dmitry Kozak becoming Vice-Premier responsible for industrial development and energy sector. That, considering the fact of this very competent man being very close to Putin, is one of the indication of proper people getting into the fields which are crucial for Russia's development. 

I can repeat myself: 

Now, this rumor about Kudrin—he is not going to be, if he appears at all, in any position of power to formulate any policy in government, not to mention nationally. Certainly not as a liaison for negotiation of "surrender" to the West as some suggested. People sometimes simply forget that in modern day Russia it is Putin and his immediate team who formulate policies. I see no signs of him "surrendering". Quite opposite, actually.

Yet, as a reminder—still nothing firm was announced yet anyway. Give it a time and carry on with your lives. Will know everything in a due time.