Showing posts with label lessons. Show all posts
Showing posts with label lessons. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Yes, I Spoke About It ...

 ... for many years. 

The EU has failed to learn the lessons of history by once again gathering under a Nazi flag to attempt to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday. Lavrov was responding to remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who on Monday declared there were “no more range limitations” for weapons sent to Ukraine by the West, including Germany. Merz has also vowed to turn the German military into Europe’s strongest conventional force. “Europe has once again found itself a Nazi flag by committing to a completely misguided, disastrous venture of inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia,” Lavrov stated. “To hear from the current German leader that Germany will regain its position as the leading military power in Europe, just after we have celebrated the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Hitler’s Nazism, is quite symptomatic. History, apparently, taught these people nothing.”

Correct, nothing could be learned when one is moved not just by ignorance but by all-consuming hatred, much of it covered up by political expediency of post-WW II narratives. France was as Nazi as was Germany, hundreds of thousands of French Wehrmacht and SS volunteers is a well known fact, so is Vichy. Czechs provided Wehrmacht with up to 30% of its vehicles, Ukrainians distinguished themselves as genocidal sadistic formations killing civilians such way that even some SS people were shocked. Finns want to forget that their army played a critical role in the siege of Leningrad. 

You see, they don't learn, because you cannot change your cultural DNA in which Russians are viewed, as they always have been, as Asiatic subhumans. They still believe that Russians somehow want to possess urine-reeking dump of Paris or enjoy gay-parades in Hamburg. They have no clue, as usual. Russians are not coming. They don't want to, nor do they need to. Europe is a drab pauper. 

Yes, George--we knew it happened already in 2017. 


Thursday, October 20, 2022

Away From War For A Moment.

One of the things needed to be remembered while talking about SMO--life still continues. And here is an interesting video related to commercial aviation which stumbled upon today, and it discusses Air Koryo and situation with North Korean civil aviation. 

Indeed, a very practical question is asked. Most of those old Soviet-built aircraft will eventually begin to simply disintegrate, because no matter the maintenance, the air-frame fatigue cannot be stopped. The author does make a number of correct observations about Air Koryo fleet, with one exception, since TU-204 (214) is a very decent and not an ancient aircraft. In fact, it is a modern aircraft powered by very respectable PS-90A high bypass turbofans, and Air Koryo has two of those and they are not ancient: one is of 2007, another of 2008 years of production.  

But the issues the author of the video raises go well beyond the fate of a rather small air company from hermit kingdom of Juche. Apart, of course, from being deadly wrong on the issue of Antonov, which was able to produce only 47 regional AN-148 since 2004, peaking with 9 in 2013 and producing exactly ZERO aircraft in the last 5 years, while managing to defraud both Azerbaijan and Peru through prepayment by selling them... non-existent An-178. In other words, 404 has a commercial aviation industry which is 404 and it is never coming back. Author's arguments re: Chinese COMAC are precise--this is what I write about for years--unless you have your own competitive engines and advanced avionics (and systems), you are still in the state of being yet another Embraer. For all its famous aircraft--all of them are motorized by Western engines and fly using Western avionics. 

Here is the hope for North Korea--against the ongoing implosion (controlled demolition that is) of Western "rules-based order", North Korea will increasingly find its hands untied insofar as continuing to buy indigenous Russian-made commercial aircraft which do have both Russian engines and avionics. TU-214 comes to mind immediately, as is coming SSJ New. 

Irkut prepares the first flight of the SSJ-New regional jet for 2023 in hopes of starting series production of the aircraft by the end of next year. The SSJ-New is an improved version of the SuperJet 100 (SSJ100), a commercial jet with around 100 seats. It is a project in which the Russians wanted to compete in the global commercial aviation market, but which failed due to the low availability of the aircraft, among other problems. With the onset of economic sanctions on Russia since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, the state-owned UAC (United Aircraft Corporation), which controls the country’s main aeronautical manufacturers, decided to develop a variant with indigenous components. The list of replacements includes everything from avionics to components such as the landing gear and even the PD-8 turbofan engine, in place of the PowerJet SaM146, a joint venture with France’s Safran.

Superjets proved themselves not only as robust performers on "regional" routes, but fly freely on such traditional very high density routes like Moscow-Sochi or even longer St. Petersburg-Sochi and even Astana-Moscow. In fact, many do not even count them as merely regional jets with their range well within 4,500 kilometers. PD-8 and KRET avionics is what does the trick making this iteration of SSJ export friendly and, in case of Air Koryo, it will be naive to expect fully russified MC-21 being sold to them, not least because of MC-21 being a premium world-class aircraft not needed for specifically North Korea both geographically (route Pyongyang Beijing is 810 kilometers long, to Shanghai--935) and price-wise. Yet, there is a lesson in here once one considers a real state of the global economy, and dramatically accelerating collapse of one of the major pillars of Pax Americana--its soft power, it becomes clear that the export potential of both SSJ New and MC-21 is very impressive. 

But, of course, voluminous Russian commercial aviation market is a priority. That goes without saying--through 2030 Russia's market of commercial aviation needs 1,000 aircraft (in Russian). Aeroflot alone, contracted in September this year 339 Russian-made aircraft (in Russian) through 2030. So, do not forget all those other major carriers, such as S7 with its (for now) new fleet, or Ural Airlines, among many others. They will need to put away those A-321s and B-737s away fairly soon, 2-3 years, and then start replacing them with Russian-made aircraft. Even if to imagine (for the sake of experiment) that combined West moderates itself and even lifts some sanctions--there never, in several generations, will be any trust in any commercial or government institution either from the US or EU, period. I heard Biden today got lost in the space-time continuum, again. You cannot talk to entities who elect themselves Bidens, Johnsons, Trusses, or Sholtzes... waste of time.

Monday, August 24, 2020

Patrick Armstrong Wrote An Excellent Piece.

About learning proper lessons from war. Patrick refers to my work (that is not the reason I refer to his piece, I quote him periodically) in this superb piece and to Fred Reed's succinct and always sardonic description of US military since Vietnam War. 
Patrick, however, goes deeper and reiterates the main point shared among military professionals that:
The last sentence is the most important one. Now recall my three years old "issue" with operational "planning" by RAND's very own Ochmanek and group of air power experts. That is until he himself admitted, two years later, in 2019 that NATO has its ass handed to it real war against Russia and China. Recall my main question then, in 2017:
                     What kind of war with Russia? 
Russian definition of the best air-defense in the world is very simple: our tanks at enemy's airfields. This obvious truism implies something much bigger than mere air operations, it requires a serious battle-space integration across all domains (damn, do I sound like a Pentagon bureaucrat) and, yes, those proverbial ground forces which, actually, have a very effective troops' (voiskovaya) air defenses which the US armed forces never encountered in their modern era. So, in general, Armstrong's piece is great and gives excellent historic introspective. A must read, as one would say.

Meanwhile, 6th international (32 participants from Russia, Belarus, Israel, Iran, Vietnam, China, you name it) army games Army 2020 opened yesterday in Russia and Russians greeted everybody with a ballet. No, not from Bolshoi or Mariinka, but primarily Western, Southern and Central military districts and ballerinas were charming and elegant. Primarily T-80s and Msta-S self-propelled gun. Just enjoy, nothing better than T-80s dance to Swan Lake and Nut-Cracker.  
 
The full ballet performance you can easily find at the Army 2020 Youtube channel. Meanwhile, the first full day of competitions, tank biathlon, saw Vietnamese kicking ass being clinical on targets on their (only China brought her own tanks) T-72B3s and that means a really hot contest, I am sure Chinese and Israelis will have something to say about it, apart from Russia and Belarus. You see, if the world could only fight in such "wars".   

Thursday, November 1, 2018

Russia's Non-Jewish History-3.



Imagine, if you can, yourself losing a leg as a result of gangrene due to deep multiple shrapnel penetrations, which, in itself was a result of the shell explosion, say at Mukden in 1905, then see hundreds of your fellow soldiers killed or maimed in the extreme. Imagine, if you can, the level of pain and traumatic stress, with allowance for the medicine of circa 1900 and then imagine what will you tell your sweet-heart in the village somewhere in Russia when you will get back from the front. Imagine you, illiterate, now facing some grim options related to survival, with some of them including highly probable one of ending up begging for pocket change and food at the stairs of some church. This is a reality which very many faced during Russo-Japanese War. At least, since Crimean War the use of ether became a norm and one could survive a pain shock during amputation or extraction of the bullets or shell fragments from the body. You are not alone in this, thousands upon thousands like you flood Russian villages and cities in 1905 after a military disaster at the Far East of Russian Empire. Of course, you have a story to tell and, while walking on crutches, a blame to blame. But that is not all, by far not all. In fact, Japanese propaganda in 1905 nailed it perfectly. Having a hindsight it is easy to see that, as much as it is painful to Russian heart to admit, Japanese were well aware (well, partially thanks to British intelligence) of the state of Russian Empire. 


Now imagine, if you are a low level, literate, clerk in some Russian town and you read newspapers, supporting Russian Army and Fleet with all your heart, about, first, a disastrous attempt of Russian Pacific Squadron to break out of the blocked by Japanese Navy Port Arthur, with the death of Admiral Vitgeft (Withoft) and effective loss of the squadron of 6 battleships as a combat formation in a show of a decisive advantage of Japanese gunnery and seamanship. But if that is not bad enough, enter Battle of Tsushima. In unprecedented in modern history battle, Japanese Navy's Admiral Togo and his squadron, at the loss of three small torpedo boats (total 450 tons of displacement) annihilated Admiral Zinovy Rozhestvensky's 2nd Pacific Squadron (combined 127, 000 tons of displacement sunk) in the most lopsided naval battle in history. No matter how one interprets this—there is absolutely no other way around it, Japan triumphed on unprecedented scale. Even Western World was sent into shock by this development. What was happening in Russia? Do you have an idea? Can you imagine what was happening? Remember Grand Duke Konstantine's bitter admission after conclusion of the Crimean War?

 We cannot deceive ourselves any longer; we must say that we are both weaker and poorer than the first-class powers, and furthermore poorer not only in material terms but in mental resources, especially in matters of administration.   

This time, 50 years later, it was Asian power which bested Russia. Now, if you were what I suggested you to imagine in the beginning--would you ask the question why all this happened to you personally and the country as a whole? Yes, yes, we all know that all kinds of Russian faux "patriots", such as Solzhenitsyn, complained that Russia sent not the best troops to fight at the Far East, yes, the half-world around of Rozhestvensky squadron's voyage was perilous and difficult, but have Mr. Solzhenitsyn heard (after all he was presented in the West as Russia's "historian") about this slight "problem" of Russian shells not exploding even when they were hitting Togo's ships at Tsushima? Have he ever elaborated on the issue of substandard powder and, in the end, for some reason higher humidity under which it was stored which had a disastrous effect on Russian guns? Why Stessel literally sold Port-Arthur to Japanese and instead of being shot as a traitor was pardoned by Nicholas II? Nah, details, tactics, operational art, strategy, industries—it is all for losers. Yet, if even the Western World was shocked, in Russia, outcome of Tsushima and of the whole war created a state of utter national agony. NO lessons have been learned since Crimea and even formal "liberation" of serfs, in reality did little to improve (in many cases it made it even more difficult), didn't help much in Russia's quest to stay a premier power of the age. So, enter first Russian Revolution of 1905-1907. Catastrophic national humiliation in Russo-Japanese War was one of the major factors, in fact—a match which lit already heating up powder keg of Russia's problems. Word Tsushima entered Russian consciousness and culture, till this day, as a euphemism for catastrophe Were Jews involved in this Revolution? Yes, they were, but they were just one "problem". The most important one, which also allowed many competent Russian historians (such as Elena Prudnikova, among others) call this Revolution a first Peasant Revolution of Russia, was, in the words of a very prominent, fervently anti-Bolshevik, Russian politician, Pavel Milyukov a failure of "emancipation", courtesy of Russian, oh, so admired, landowners class, which made famine a normal state of Russia:

The insufficiency of food is thus … associated with an abundance of working power. To find additional food and to spend additional work in producing it, two methods are possible: either to increase the productivity of the given plot, or to increase the plot itself. But the productivity of the soil cannot be increased without new investment of capital, if even we admit, what many writers do not grant, that such increase is possible at all on lands in communal ownership and in precarious possession of the single cultivator. Now the peasant in distress does not possess any capital, and rural credit for improving land does not exist in Russia. The other, and, under existing conditions, the only possible, method, is to buy or rent additional plots of land. This has always been the most ardent desire of the peasants, and a real struggle for buying or renting land has been going on during the whole period under consideration. Owing to the large number of estates of nobles offered for sale, and also to the material help of the Peasants' Bank (since 1883), the agriculturists have succeeded in increasing the property of the peasant communes since 1875 by 10 per cent. But even though we add such land as has been purchased by individual peasants, independently of the communal allotments, which would increase the amount by another 13 per cent., this general increase of 23 per cent does not prove equal to the increase of the peasant population during the same period, which was 48 per cent, or more than double. As a result, the holdings have constantly decreased and it became necessary to rent neighboring land. This necessity has been so great, and opportunities for renting land have been so comparatively few, that rent has risen enormously. Contrary to the laws of classical economy, the rent has not only reached the amount of the "unearned increment," but has far exceeded it, swallowing up the profits and, very often, the very wages of the tenants. Such exorbitant rent may be compared to what is known to have been the case in Ireland before the great famine of 1846-47, when the competition among the tenants "reminded one of a struggle for food in a besieged city or on a ship in open sea." The same kind of competition is going on among the Russian peasants owing to the absolute insufficiency of their plots for mere subsistence. Of course, no profits are looked for from such renting, the only aim of the peasants--and the only economic explanation of the possibility of such a rent--being to apply their own and their horses' gratuitous labor to produce some more grain for their sustenance. Otherwise this possibility of subsidiary work would be lost, and both man and horse must starve. No wonder that they count their work as nothing.

Russia and Its Crisis by Paul Mileiiukov, Crane Lectures for 1903, Chicago, the University of Chicago Press, London T. Fisher Unwin, Paternoster Square 1905, pages 450-451.



What is interesting in all that is the fact that still by 1905 a dominant Russian way of agriculture was a Three-Field System—a medieval way of growing food stuff, especially in the age of serious mechanization unfolding in the West. So, it matters really that Russia was not just humiliated militarily and politically in 1905. It matters that she was humiliated while being illiterate and constantly hungry, with wholesale and local famines being a permanent occurrence in Russian countryside. In the end, overwhelming majority of Russian Army and Navy recruits tasted the meat for the first time in their life on the military service. As Nikolai Nekrasov wrote in his 1864 "Grandfather Frost the Red Nose" (in Russian), Part: Death of a Peasant:

На эти рыданья и стоны Соседи валили гурьбой: Свечу положив у иконы, Творили земные поклоны И шли молчаливо домой. На смену входили другие. Но вот уж толпа разбрелась, Поужинать сели родные — Капуста да с хлебушком квас.

I am not in the position to translate one of the greatest Russian poets but highlighted reads:

The Dears sat for the dinner—cabbage, bread and kvas.

But never mind, those were "enemies" of Russia, who "lied" about the state Russian people were forced into by all those magnificent Russian nobles who knew from the get go that it was "Jewish conspiracy" to expose Russia's peasantry calorie intake and then try to stop never-ending Russian hunger. Other than that, life in St. Petersburg or in vast landowners' mansions in country side was swell and champagne was flowing, under the sound of a crunch of French baguette…


To Be Continued….