Wow, What Sore Losers.

This is about Russian aviation and a bunch of pseudo-experts who are experiencing a huge butt-hurt. This is expected from such people like Murdo Morrison whose C.V. you can find at LinkedIn. As expected, LOL: 

So, the guy has no education but, guess what. As CNN reports, IL-96-400M is:

“Although Moscow won’t admit it, the sanctions that followed the Ukraine invasion have really damaged Russian aviation,” Murdo Morrison, head of strategic content at FlightGlobal, tells CNN. “The problem is that lack of spares – some get in through the back door undoubtedly – means that many Airbus and Boeing aircraft flying in Russia today are potentially dangerous. Although Russia has a proficient regulator, there is very little visibility as to the health of its fleet.” 

I think, CNN "experts" need to take classes in basic history of Russian aerospace, while CNN editorial staff throws themselves into the crater of active volcano, because they are neither "experts", nor journalists. But I feel their butt-hurt, and the sour grapes grew to a monstrous size. This also nicely coincides with this today's news:

Газогенератор самого большого российского турбовентиляторного двигателя ПД-35 завершил очередной этап наземных испытаний, сообщила Объединенная двигателестроительная корпорация (ОДК). Для этого использовался специально стенд в Центральном институте авиационных моторов (ЦИАМ) в Москве, где имитировалась работа полноразмерного мотора. Испытания показали хорошую сходимость полученных параметров газогенератора с проектными данными, отметили в корпорации.

Translation: The gas generator of the largest Russian turbofan engine, PD-35, has completed the next stage of ground testing, the United Engine Corporation (UEC) reported. For this purpose, a special stand was used at the Central Institute of Aviation Motors (CIAM) in Moscow, where the operation of a full-size engine was simulated. Tests showed good convergence of the obtained parameters of the gas generator with the design data, the corporation noted. 

I guess butt-hurting will continue because PD-35 can be scaled between 26 and 44 tons of thrust and it is not just for IL-96-400M, it is also for fully Russified AN-124 Ruslan with all new systems, from APU and avionics, to four PD-35s versions which will provide Russia with strategic lift until new heavy transport aircraft is ready. But then again, with "degree" in politics and "experience" of editing Car and Accessory Trader Magazine in his native UK, no surprise Mr. Morrison has issues with understanding the picture--a defining feature of British "elites". Good God, the idiot should have at least read late and truly erudite British aviation writer (with actual RAF flying experience and aeronautical engineering degree) Bill Gunston. From the times when Britons did produce people of not just good talent, but real class as late Bill was. You can still see this class shining through the last representatives such as Alastair Crooke of what once was a respectable and proud professional community. Not anymore. Now only Murdo Morrisons.

It Flew.

The first flight of modernized IL-96-400M. 

This is just the start, with PD-35 coming online soon and possibly wing redesigned and made composite--the most important part is that Russia preserved and now develops competencies in wide-body aircraft, which she can produce entirely out of own resources. Count on fingers of one hand how many countries can do that. I'll give you a hint--US and Russia. Airbus is an international consortium having several nations taking part. 

To rub salt into the wound of Russia-Gas Stationists, in Russian--the latest expo of Russia's rolling stock. Rate of Made in Russia? Between 98 to 100%, including all systems of control and propulsion. This all is a real hi-tech. It also is already in serial production or about to start. 

Yep, definitely a gas station. 

In other news, Lindsey Graham confirmed what we always knew about him--he is a genocidal maniac. 

In an interview with CNN on Tuesday, Graham was asked if there was a “threshold” for him, after which he would start questioning Israel’s tactics. The Republican replied in the negative, saying there is no limit as to “what Israel should do to the people who are trying to slaughter the Jews.” “This idea that Israel has to apologize for attacking Hamas, who’s embedded with their own population, needs to stop,” the senator insisted, adding that it is Hamas that is “creating these casualties – not Israel.” Graham noted that Israel does need to “be smart” by trying to “limit civilian casualties.” The lawmaker also called for the delivery of humanitarian aid to “areas that protect the innocent.”

People of South Carolina should be proud. Graham represents them.

About This Plane...

 ... which sheds some light on CR 929 fate. Russia continues with her program of updating IL-96 line, as an intermediate wide-body solution, to IL-96-400M. This is the first aircraft of this limited series doing its take-off regime runs yesterday. 

Its four engines are advanced PS-90A3--a further development of venerable high-bypass ratio PS-90A. This aircraft is fully Russian made, from systems to avionics. 

And it should make a first flight by the end of this year and then proceed to have at least two of them produced for government uses, until, it seems, it will be re-motorized to two PD-35 engines. Denis Manturov did confirm the intention to produce this four engine version once tests are completed. IL-96-400M is a full size wide-body and full passenger capacity, being 10 meters longer than IL-96-300 version which Vladimir Putin uses as a Presidential Plane. It is capable of carrying 402 passengers in a single class configuration.  

So, four engines for now. PD-35, meanwhile, produces excellent results at tests. 

United Engine Corporation (UEC) has completed another round of bench tests on the PD-35 core engine which is set to become Russia’s largest turbofan. The tests took place at the Moscow-based Central Institute of Aviation Motors (CIAM) and simulated operation of the full-size powerplant.  

Of course, western media wouldn't be western media if they didn't put the story upside down, a euphemism for BS. As they report:

United Aircraft Corp. (UAC) CEO Yury Slyusar earlier this month confirmed for the first time that UAC is no longer a partner in the CR929 joint venture. Although the decision has been made, undoing the joint venture will likely take considerable time, since it involves changing agreements between the governments of China and Russia. Beijing has not commented on the change of plans. The CR929 has accumulated years of delays and is not expected to enter service until well after 2030 due to lengthy negotiations about sharing work and intellectual property. For months, reports indicated that China had decided to pursue the widebody on its own. Keeping a sanctions-ravaged partner on board would make the project even more difficult.Russia still hopes to remain involved. Slyusar says Russian industry plans to continue with the program as a normal supplier and builder of the composite wing, PD-35 engines and other subsystems for the aircraft.

And here is the reason. Yes, sanctions, BUT NOT on Russian aerospace industry, but on Chinese one-Russia simply doesn't want to be embroiled in the project which not only doesn't satisfy Russia's manufacturing share and financial (profit) requirements, but of pure geopolitics. As Comac C919 "experience" shows:

The United States has expanded its export controls and trade sanctions against China over advanced technology, including semiconductors and aviation, as relations between Beijing and Washington have deteriorated.Growing tensions have also affected trade in the aviation sector as China’s own narrow-body passenger jet, the C919, has entered commercial operation this year. However, the plane, which took more than 14 years to develop, relies on imported parts and technology, especially from the US. The C919’s LEAP engine is made by CFM International, a joint venture between American firm GE Aviation and France’s Safran Aircraft Engines.

Well, guess what--Chinese want CR929 to be primarily declared as C929 (without R, it already is known as CRAIG C929) and still have a truckload of Western systems in it. And that, once (not "If") the sanctions are imposed and RR or P&W engines will become unavailable, the project will face the necessity of Russian PD-35 be diverted away from Russia's wide-body aircraft or... wait for Chinese turbofan with similar to PD-35 characteristics and this is not coming anytime soon. So, in this case Russia is supposed to pick up the slack? This is a no go for Russia, who obviously is aiming at a fully updated two-engine wide-body IL-96 which will not only be flying domestically and internationally in Asia, but will compete with Western models on non-Western markets being fully Russian and impervious to sanctions. In this case, Russia is not very keen at creating a competitor to own, entering full testing phase, project. Simple as that.

Modern aerospace technologies are crown jewels of industrialized nations and nobody provides access to their best simply because of good relations. And this is worth reminding again:

In the end, quite a few countries can create the air-frame, but to make this air-frame into modern aircraft is a whole other level of expertise altogether. That is why highly advanced Japan failed in her regional jet project, that is why loved by many Embraer is Brazilian in air-frame only, with the rest of it, including E190-series flying on Pratt and Whitney engines and using Western-build systems. Even Bombardier  C-series jets are known today as Airbus A220 and, you already have guessed it, use PW1500 turbofans and only Western-made systems. Hell, Bombardier always was Western by definition. 

And here we are, in the new geopolitical and economic reality and here is the trick--there is ONLY one country which can and does provide, completely out of own resources, the alternative to Western commercial aerospace giants and you already guessed it--Russia. Now, keep an eye on the overall situation with world's de-dollarization, weakening of EU economies and... drum roll--Arab and Sub-Saharan African world having serious second thoughts about the West. Those things always have major geopolitical and economic consequences. Russia is getting ready for that and that explains some reasons behind IL-96-400M and C929 fate.

Boeing Doesn't Seem To Be Able To Catch A Break.

If B-737-Max was bad news overall, this piece of news is bad for Boeing tactically and operationally. 

SEATTLE/PARIS (Reuters) - Boeing Co faced additional uncertainty on Wednesday over future production rates for its 787 Dreamliner after Russian carrier Aeroflot formally canceled an order for 22 aircraft valued at about $5.5 billion at list prices. The cancellation, first reported by the Seattle Times and buried in Boeing's monthly order release, is the final step in unwinding an order that had been shrouded in uncertainty ever since the airline said in 2015 it no longer needed the planes. But the lost business theoretically knocks a hole in the production profile for the 787 Dreamliner after the world's largest planemaker increased its build-rate to 14 aircraft per month from 12 at twin U.S. factories. Barring new orders, Boeing faces the growing possibility that it may have to cut production back by 2022, industry sources say, piling on new pressure as the grounding of the smaller 737 MAX stretches into its eighth month.

While I work in commercial aerospace industry, I am, certainly, not an insider in a financial-economic sense. The article, however, gives a hint:

While demand for the narrow body aircraft that dominate most fleets remains strong, demand for larger, long-haul aircraft like the 787 and Airbus A330 and A350 has weakened. Boeing won most of the wide body orders so far this year but neither planemaker is selling as many aircraft as it would like amid trade tensions, concerns over the global economy and the increased ability of smaller narrow bodies to fly long distances.

Ah, that's warmer. Two major factors on Russian side:

1. MC-21, slated for serial production in 2021, including delays with certification of Russian composites which substituted "sanctioned" ones, is fully capable to carry non-stop 160+ passengers from Moscow or St. Petersburg to Krasnoyarsk or Yakutsk easy-peasy. Same goes for any destination in Europe and Middle East, while good ol' B-777s still fly such routes as Moscow-Vladivostok or Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and cover all needs no problem. MC-21, obviously, will have also no problem reaching from Vladivostok (or Khabarovsk) most cities of mainland China, and all cities in South Korea not to speak of Japan, which realistically is not even considered that much of an abroad for Russian Far Easterners. 

2. But then there is this important news. Very important news and I wrote about this few years ago, latest in 2018. And here is the news:

В ПАО «Воронежское акционерное самолетостроительное общество» (ПАО «ВАСО») завершилась стапельная сборка первого опытного образца широкофюзеляжного дальнемагистрального пассажирского самолета Ил-96 400М. Предварительные испытания самолёта должны пройти с ноября 2019-го по январь 2020 года. До мая 2020 года пройдут дополнительные сертификационные испытания, которые в июне должны завершиться выдачей дополнения к сертификату типа — одобрения главного изменения конструкции. С 2020 по 2023 г. пять новых самолётов должна принять Государственная транспортная лизинговая компания (ГТЛК). Ожидается, что они будут эксплуатироваться на линиях между Москвой и Владивостоком с Хабаровском.

Translation: JSC Voronezh Plane Building Society (PAO VASO) just finished assembly of the first experimental long-range wide-body IL-96 400M. Preliminary tests should be conducted from November 2019 through January 2020. Additional certification tests are planned through May 2020 and they should result in issuing of the addendum to certificate of the type in June--qualification of the main change in the design. From 2020 thro0ugh 2023 State Transport Leasing Company will receive five new aircraft. They expected to operate on Moscow-Khabarovsk and Moscow-Vladivostok routes. 

This is fast. Now, what would those new IL-96s be in terms of engines? It seems that those will be four engine (PD-18) machines, until PD-35 hits serial production lines roughly by 2025 and will be installed on Chinese-Russian CR-929 and fully redesigned two-engine IL-96. That explains a lot, albeit not all, in terms of this contract between Aeroflot and Boeing. Frankly, these are stunning developments, simply stunning, they also indicate that PD-14 and its up-powered version PD-18 and down-powered PD-10 to substitute French-Russian SAMs on Sukhoi Super Jets, are well in the pipeline for tests and production. Russia, obviously, goes her own way being only the third (!!!) country capable to produce wide-body commercial aircraft and, that is the fact which should have been foreseen by Boeing and Airbus (read: US and EU) when sanctioning Russia's aerospace industry, which went into overdrive instead of collapsing. These new five IL-96s are not going to remove wide-body foreign aircraft from voluminous Russian market, IL-96s which will follow with PD-35 engine will.

IL-96-400M Is Getting Ready For Take-Off.

Recall what I wrote 2 years ago about the program of return of the venerable IL-96 into operation. Well, it IS being brought back to life and three days old order of Russian government (in Russian) to issue additional (to already provided 6 billion Rubles) 1.3 billion rubles for retooling of Voronezh Aircraft Plant, getting it ready for series production, starting in 2020, is an extremely important event... geopolitically. How so, one may ask. Well, consider this:

1. While the US deep state goes apoplectic accusing Trump in being a Russian asset, truth is--no economic sanctions on Russia will ever be lifted and, in fact, new ones will be imposed. Russians know this damn well. So much for a "useful" Trump. 

2. Increasing economic sanctions apply to Russia all necessary pressures required for a domestic development primarily in real hi-tech sectors and no more so than in commercial aerospace. 

3. As was pointed out not for once--Russia's commercial aviation market is huge, as is the country itself, which necessitates (always did) an extraordinarily well developed commercial aviation sector. With SSJ-100 and MC-21s flying (MC-21 getting ready for series production) already, but those are regional and mid-range aircraft... 

4. Russia needs wide-body, long-range aircraft which is NOT A-3XX or B-747, 777 or 787 for its domestic flights. Il-96, granted, vastly upgraded, from avionics to aggregates, to some variant of Aviadvigatel PS-90 jet engine which will not have any Western parts in it, fits the bill perfectly while keeping Russia in the wide-body long-range commercial aviation business before CR-929 hits the market.  The same goes for PD-35 engine, albeit rumor has it that IL-96 may benefit from 4 PD-14 engines, with PD-14 being in the final stages of its certification. That makes Il-96-400M a thoroughly Russian airplane.

5. Il-96 is simply an awesome aircraft, it is beautiful, elegant and, in the end, Vladimir Putin himself uses its 300 version as a Russian variant of American Air Force One.

Special Version

6. Finally, it is the aircraft which is GOOD ENOUGH and exists now, as opposed to all future projects, not to speak of the Western wide-body aircraft which are a liability under economic and political war US wages against Russia. 

Resumption of the production of Il-96, which was sabotaged in 1990s by Yeltsin's cabal, is an excellent indicator of Russia doing what needs to be done under present conditions--making oneself independent from key Western technologies and this process was ongoing in earnest since 2014. Because in the end, it is finally being asked in Russia why should Russia support a hostile power by purchasing its technology when Russia can completely out of own resources produce it. It was symptomatic, however, that the largest delegation at the SPIEF 2018 was an American one, headed, as you all may have heard, by Boeing's CEO.    

Queens Of The Skies.

I love 747s. Let me wax poetic and sappy sentimental here--you look at modern 747 and feel safe and comfortable. You enjoy those recognizable lines with a distinctive hump, and while in the sky you actually enjoy the flight and expect good things only.  I flew both 747-400s and 747-8s and even despite being relegated by extremely high prices into steerage, doing transatlantic is always a joy. Once this magnificent plane overcame its growing pains and matured she became truly a Queen Of The Skies--a testament to a great American aerospace engineering and her elegant hump is recognized worldwide.

   

Well, they want to stop 747s manufacturing by 2019, albeit 747s run was extended thanks to Russia's Volga-Dnepr Cargo carrier which ordered 20 747-8 freighters. The reason for ending 747s is well known--economy. Well, not really economy but profits. Make no mistake, I get it, airlines have to operate for a profit and 4-engine jumbo is bit too thirsty for their taste, ergo--less profit. But here is my take: between me being stuck in 747's steerage and the same in some two-engine newbie I would rather feel somewhat spatially limited in 747 than in anything Airbus throws at you, or, rather throws you in. I'd rather feel safe and moderately comfortable than comfortable and having just a double, as opposed to quadruple, redundancy. But here are another considerations which go into travel: safety, aesthetics, tradition, class and 747s' latter part of life is a testament to that. Speaking in plain language--I don't want to see these magnificent birds being grounded and, eventually, terminated. Sure, with modern day engineering it is possible to develop a jumbo even with a single engine. Can you imagine an economy on this one? But would you fly on it? I sure as hell would do my utmost to never put my ass in the most comfortable seat they may offer me in this flying thing. A simple truth of modern air travel is that the same as in 1967, in 2017 we still fly air breathing jet-engines. Yes, they are way more sophisticated and reliable than their parents but the engineering truism still remains: a probability of the failure of a complex system is in direct variation with the square of a number of all (mechanical, electric, hydraulic etc.) connections in this system. This is when you begin to appreciate a gentle rumble of all 747's four engines and this allows you to relax a bit at 11 000 meters over Atlantic. 

Now come those crazy Ivans who yesterday said--screw your (super) profits we will stick for awhile with four engine configuration. United Aircraft Corporation and Ilyushin signed yesterday a contract for development and production, starting in 2019, of Ilyushin-96-400M (In Russian). Suck on it, accounting. Not only profits (however important) should be considered when making decisions on how people fly. Soviets and then Russians were always in love with Ilyushin machines, from legendary Il-2 Shturmovik of Great Patriotic War to venerable Il-62s which flew long-distances, including internationally, including transatlantic and over Pacific, to early versions of Il-96s. News of a freshly signed contract were met with a huge outpouring of public joy both for resumption of production of a beloved, albeit deeply modernized, including new engines, jumbo which will be able to carry 390 passengers and for still seeing, in the age of air breather, so loved and so ensuring quadruple redundancy. 

   

This, and, of course, something that makes those magnificent birds so special with their 4 engines, harking back to the times when the long-range flight was an event. Flying over Atlantic, Pacific or over Norther Siberia, where there are no airfields for thousands of kilometers, or over Northern Pole, on all four makes it so much more comfortable emotionally. In our insane world this is worth a lot, way more than some marginal profitability which goes straight into the pockets of airlines' fat cats and stock buybacks. For the rest, there are two-engine work horses. Until we fly on air-breathers and not on anti-gravity drives or by folding space, seeing those wonderful 4-engine machines makes me feel reasonably safe and happy, isn't it what the travel should be about?