G-8 Russian Poll.

Russian daily Vzglyad positions itself as a business daily. It does, indeed, attract many comments from all kinds of public ranging from uber-liberal loonies to normal people to armies of mostly Ukrainian trolls. I use Vzglyad merely as news aggregator and, once in a while, source of either decent or, opposite, down right stupid opinion pieces. In all, I don't take it too seriously. Yet, Vzglyad does provide good feel for public opinion in Russia (granted very roughly approximate) and here is one from two days ago regarding possible Russia's return to G-7, or G-8, if one wishes. 

25, 576 people were polled on-line and 92.3% of those responded negatively to the question if Russia should return to Great Eight. Here are slightly updated results--nothing changed. To interpret these results is really easy for anyone who knows Russia not from pages of NYT or WaPo, or Moscow Times, or Kommersant, but knows Russia's and Russian people. Russia doesn't want to deal with the so called West and doesn't see herself as a part of it, she sees her future in Eurasia. Modern West lost any value for overwhelming majority of Russians and this is not the heat of the moment poll--it is a well defined long term trend which has massive geopolitical ramifications. Why? How about this little piece of news: Russia and China signed new package of documents on military cooperation, which allowed Sergei Shoigu to call it (in Russian) a new stage of Russian-Chinese cooperation. This somehow coincided with Igor Korotchenko, who is one of Russia's main insiders on defense, stating three days ago at Solovyov's show, that Russia should extend her anti-missile umbrella over China (in Russian).

So, something is up and who knows what we will observe in coming months. Chinese meanwhile are moving people and hardware to Russia for Center 2019 military exercise. These are very big maneuvers and they also are designed to address some issues with inevitable exit of the United States from Afghanistan and a shitstorm which will happen there once US leaves. Somebody needs to clean up the mess, once the Taliban scourge starts pouring over the borders. I wish Zbig was still alive to see the fruits of his policies. 

    

Macron Came To The Conclusion.

That Russia, as he twitted in Russian language, is "deeply European country". Well, we all know that and Macron twitting in Russian after meetings with President Putin, who was on a state visit in France yesterday, is a nice gesture, in addition to bloviating about Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok, but it seems that Macron missed the point. Forget Russia, it is Europe which is not European anymore. And nobody, except for a very narrow strata of Russian "liberals" in economic block really cares about "return to G-8". Indeed, why? To do what? Photo-ops? I understand that Macron views Putin' visit as a tool for his domestic politics but let's be honest: what can possibly be discussed with a leader of the nation which resides in the economic and cultural limbo for a decade now and whose real global weight is not that significant? 

Obviously Russia and France (and EU) have drastically different views on Syria and they are irreconcilable. Ukraine? Ukraine is under external control from Washington D.C. and, partially, from Berlin. Europe as a whole still remains and will continue to remain a US' slap bitch, so nothing strategically meaningful can be discussed in Paris, other than some tactical questions and protocol cliche' pleasantries about "Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok". And then there is this:

Moscow (AFP) - Russia and China warned Tuesday that a new US missile test had heightened military tensions and risked sparking an arms race, weeks after Washington ripped up a Cold War-era weapons pact with Moscow. The US and Russia ditched the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty this month after accusing each other of violating the accord. Washington said the agreement also tied its hands in dealing with other powers such as China. The US Department of Defense announced on Monday it had tested a type of ground-launched missile that was banned under the 1987 INF agreement, which limited the use of nuclear and conventional medium-range weapons. "The US has obviously taken a course towards escalation of military tensions. We won't react to provocations," Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told state news agency TASS. "We will not allow ourselves to get drawn into a costly arms race."

Pay attention to how the article is formulated--see highlighted in yellow. Oh, the ambiguity, oh, the Minitrue mentality. Russia, obviously, will move her forces if the Land-Based Tomahawks (or whatever their current derivative) and possible modern iteration of "Pershing-II" will be deployed to Europe--Russia already has instruments to respond to this, but here is this "Europe" thing: Poland, Romania and other "new" Europeans are certainly contemplating such a move and neither Paris nor Berlin have any say over it. So, let Europeans (or whoever passes today under this moniker) and Americans sort it out between themselves before looking at Russia as some kind of instrument in domestic political processes, plus, as I repeat it ad nauseam--combined West is simply non-agreement capable, because the United States is non-agreement capable. Period. So, no amount of visits and pleasantries can change the situation, especially among people who know dick about Russia and her history.

UPDATE (same day): I know, some Russiagaters may have suffered a stroke, while many Russians got really tense, as in: Thanks, but no thanks. 

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump said Tuesday he believed Russia should be invited back into the Group of Seven club of industrialized nations. “I think it’s much more appropriate to have Russia in,” Trump told reporters ahead of his trip later this week to France where he will join other G-7 leaders at a summit.

Frankly, I already got tired of commenting on that--7 most "industrialized" nations? I am sure China has issues with that. And no, Russia is not "European" or "Western" nation by the metrics of contemporary Europe or US.  

Ad Nauseam

Ad Nauseam-- is a Latin term for argument or other discussion that has continued 'to [the point of] nausea'. Evidently Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has no idea when to stop with his appeals to Russia to consider herself a part of a deceased G-8. I wrote about this on several occasions but for Germany's Ministry Of Foreign Affairs I will reiterate a number of the key points which may (I kid, I kid) help this Ministry and its head stop bothering people to the point of nausea, since Steinmeier seems to be fixated on this whole G-8 "business". Here is what Kremlin responded to this yet another G-8 overture by Steinmeier:

The G-20 Format Is More Objective Than G-8. 

 
Now to "reading my lips"(c):

1. Germany, who, together with the US, was a main enabler of the atrocity in Ukraine, fails to understand that there is not going to be business as usual with Russia. It seems that last 2.5 years should serve as a great indicator of that. But no, somehow EU political elite fails to recognize it. They should take a cue from the US "elites" who went full "Cold War 2.0" retard, despite a real health hazard for them:

        

but at least they are consistent. If Germany's ruling class doesn't understand the risks and hazards associated with trying to sit simultaneously on several chairs--well, too bad. But now to a more serious reasons.

2. G7 is not really G7, it is G1+6. Peskov, whom I don't like, is actually correct--it is a club of American vassals who have no political subjectivity.  Germany, certainly, doesn't have any--it is a declining nation and today it is totally subservient to the US. In general, any statements by German politicians have no real political weight. For Russia, however, G-7 (or 8) doesn't have any political weight either since having herself as a part of G8 or otherwise makes no difference for Russia whatsoever. As they say in Russia: umerla tak umerla (if it is dead, let it stay dead). Indeed--what's the point? Yes, trade with Germany is a good idea, but after Germany's about-face in 2014 with MTU and other projects, when Russia suddenly was left without some key technological components, such as ships' power-plant (thankfully), who in their own mind in Moscow will make any deals with Germany on something that really matters for Russia? Well, there is a specific strata of Russian population (about 0.1 to 0.2%) known as Moscow's so called liberal "intellectuals", such as German Gref or Mr. Kudrin, who would gladly reduce Russia to the raw materials' appendage to the "West", but thankfully the winds blow in a very different direction today. 

Not only Russia successfully substitutes those German imports with own production, but in reality the imports from Germany should be reduced to things of mostly consumer nature--such as cars, consumer goods such as some food, shoes, clothes, may be some home electric devices and consumer electronics. The rest, including a serious German presence in Russia's machine building sector, has to be completely eliminated. It is happening as I am typing this. The same should apply to the rest of Europe. Great examples of such approach are design and manufacturing policies for MC-21 commercial jet, which is highly localized and even when using foreign parts and aggregates (such as Israeli avionics) it still has its ready Russian-made analogues. Same goes to such project as PD-14 jet engine which is completely Russian-designed and manufactured, the same could be said about Russian-made processors or displays for IR and night vision used in Russia's weapon systems--the list is too great to discuss it in this post. Russia producing her own MRI or CT Scanners or CNC machining centers based on Russian made Baikal processors are not a very good news for Siemens (among many) and that should stay this way.  If Europe in general, and Germany in particular, want to have serious business with Russia--they better first coordinate their desires with their master. In general, Russia doesn't negotiate seriously with non-sovereign actors and the times of economic "globalization" and post-industrial delusion, when industrial and technological, together with national, sovereignty was a trade commodity are over. Any contender for a global player status, in order to be treated as such, has to bring to negotiating table a powerful industrial economy, mighty military, scientific and educational schools and much much more in addition to it. 

3. Russia can and is dealing with G-7s big honcho directly. She doesn't need G-7 or G-8 for that. What can possibly G-7 add to a strategic, however dysfunctional and strained, Russian-American discussion? What are the benefits for Germany (or other G-7 members) of having Russia in this less and less exclusive debate (or rather taking notes from master) club? I don't see any benefits. G-7 is the economic equivalent of NATO, which brings us to the square one--Russia speaks with NATO's main actor directly and does not need Germany or France to mediate anything. Slaves do not mediate--they do the will of an owner. Russia's insistence on G-20 format as a more legitimate and, yes, democratic economic club is based in reality. Indeed, the PPP GDP of just 3 members of BRICS--Russia, India and China--is about 33 billion dollars, EU's PPP GDP is about 20. The immediate question comes to mind--where Russia's exports, which, unlike a favorite meme by Russia's "experts" about gas and oil being only Russia's exports, consists of a wide variety of hi-tech products, from state-of-the-art weapons to complex machines and software, has a better chance of being in demand? Of course not in EU or USA, albeit even there Russian expertise and technology are needed. Yet, Russian technology and expertise are in high demand globally elsewhere other than G-7 realm and it is only natural that economically Russia would gravitate more towards G20-G7=G13 and others. At this stage Russia is in the process of carrying out several major national projects: from expanding Vostochnyi Cosmodrome to expanding Zvezda Shipyard at the Far East, thus making it capable of building large (up to 250 000 tons) commercial vessels, to becoming one of the major participants of the New Silk Road. A lot of things are happening in Russia whose REAL economy, which is industry, left recession and which are of great interest to Europeans. But before Europe tries to build equal and truly mutually-beneficial economic relations with Russia, let Europeans deal with their own subservient position vis-a-vis their master across the pond but I wouldn't hold my breath for it. EU is bound to collapse for a number of economic, geopolitical and socio-cultural reasons and in this case Russia makes a very correct decision by ignoring treacherous, rotten to the core and useless, other than a prestigious facade, G-7, even despite Steinmeier's calls to reconsider. The calls which by now can only create an urge to blow chunks. In this case the quote from American so called "diplomat" seems quite appropriate: Fuck the EU (c).