Russians are keenly aware of that and are merely doing their due diligence by responding to NATO's "messages" with their own, such as today, with Vladimir Monomakh demonstrating that it has zero problems launching four Bulava's from Pacific towards the West, namely from the bastion in the Sea of Okhotsk at the range Chizha in Arkhangelsk region, way-way within the 9,000 kilometers (official) range of Bulava SLBMs.
Just a reminder, RSM-56 Bulava carries between 6 to 10 MIRVs, each 100-150 kilotons, which with a clinical accuracy can reach any European capital even when launched by Pacific Fleet SSBNs. In fact, if to consider that four Bulavas have been launched in a very tight sequence, we are looking at 4x6=24 or 4x10=40 MIRVs reminding European part of NATO that rearranging stones in Europe could be done by a wide variety of methods if NATO decides to commit a suicide. So, the message for Europeans (that is why a direction of the salvo--from East to West) is clear. This is the first such a salvo from Project 955 Borei SSBN in terms of shooting Bulavas from East to West. As results show--they fly just fine and hit targets as expected.
Andrei arrives to a correct conclusion:
At the core of it all, there is a cultural difference: Europeans (and
nevermind their US bosses!) are not really afraid of war. That is why
they are not really prepared for it at all. The Russians are very, very
afraid of war, because they know and remember it. This is why the West
is all threats and no action, while Russia is all actions and no
threats. From the Russian point of view, the best way to avoid war is to
really, really prepare for it. One could argue that 1000 years of
Russian history were a never ending lesson in preparation for war, especially since most wars fought by Russia were existential.
I will only add to it, that the fear of war in Russia grows with understanding of the fact that Western "elites" are a bunch of clowns who, far from knowing what war is, do not even have a grasp of basic governing principles. They, sure as hell, are very good at creating laughable doctrines, be that in economic or military fields, but in practice they are proverbial monkeys with the grenade. So, in this case, reminding those elites, be them sitting in Brussels or in D.C. that should they do a stupid thing they will be blown to smithereens, everything and everyone dear to them included, is one of the first orders of business for Russia. As Al Capone used to say "You can get much farther with a kind word and a gun than you can with a kind word alone." Simple as that, especially when you have to deal with desperate retards who are guided by a variety of psychiatric disorders because they can not get their way. Plus, how you make any conversation, forget signing any treaties, with the country which cannot even elect its president without total corruption and subversion of electoral process? Who do you talk to?
Main issue today is the safety of the US nuclear arsenal, because the possibility of US literal disintegration into several states, or localities, is by now means excluded. Hopefully this will not come to that, but even if Biden is declared POTUS, his "foreign policy team" is Obama's team and these are utterly unqualified people with little skills but, surely, very high opinion about themselves, as it is generally the case with most American politicos, who are, as a rule, very uncultured and badly educated. The trend on deterioration of the "quality" of the elites is very pronounced and that means a steady lowering of the awareness threshold in so far as the recognition of the factors leading towards possible war goes among US decision-makers. This is a problem for Russia's military-political top--American elites are not rational, as Dmitry Orlov correctly points out. So, we have to wait and see how this whole third-worldization of America plays out. Meanwhile, one has got to do what one has got to do and respond to messages with messages of its own. In fact, as Russians say (in different iterations)--we don't need your respect, we are fine with you fearing us. I agree, even the most insane patients can recognize the feel of a baton of the orderly in the asylum when it hits their limbs or backs. And that is good enough for now, everything else is after the patient is locked up in the padded room, then the course of treatment could be discussed.
While Western mass-media sewer (and circus) continues its miasma-generating cycle non-stop, so much so that people who have some decency left can not take this anymore, such as William Arkin of NBC, what really matters and people who really matter remain beyond the focus of this swamp. Too bad, because when Yuri Solomonov speaks, all those Western and many, allegedly Russian, military "experts" better listen. The Chief Designer of strategic ballistic missiles of Topol and Bulava fame, Solomonov spoke recently to Russia's Argumenti Nedeli (Arguments of the Week) weekly, including on video. It is a long interview (in Russian) and Solomonov speaks on a variety of issues, including creation of Russia's brand-new heavy rocket which will take Russia to the Moon and beyond and, of course, he speaks about strategic stability and about, in particular, US ABM technology. Here is one of his opinions:
Q. Several words about US anti-missile system which will be deployed in Northern Europe and Alaska, in order to intercept our intercontinental missiles with nuclear warheads. Please tell, should we be worried?
A. No, don't worry about that. Everything what is related to existing anti-missile defense long ago stopped being a military-technological matter and migrated into military-political field. In reality and in general words the effectiveness of these ABM means is extremely low. Another matter, when we talk about means of anti-missile defense deployed in European continent, this is the threat of a totally different type. These means of anti-missile defense could be reconfigured into strike means and that must be taken under consideration.
Solomonov articulated here, again, Russia's worry about Aegis Ashore installations in Romania and Poland and possibility of those armed with TLAMs (It will happen one way or another, Solomonov thinks otherwise--we'll see, will be glad to be wrong). But Russia's worry is not just TLAMs whose launch will be detected and facilities will be obliterated within minutes, it is also not far fetched to state that most of those TLAMs will be intercepted by VKS. Russians worry about people in US, and there are plenty of those around, with "experiences" in law, journalism, political "science" and "economics", who still believe that there is a chance of "defeating" Russia by some strike of TLAMs while being able to sit out the shitstorm which will engulf Europe after that. Yes, I kid you not--there are people like that in the top echelons of US government and they do have a say in formulation of what passes in US for foreign "policy", that is a combination of bizarre ideas and delusions which are totally foreign to any competent policy--that is what defines it as US foreign policy.
The other level of this delusion is precisely what Solomonov defines as a military-political, that is unrelated to technology, matter--some kind of pressure or spoiling instrument which should alter Russia's "behavior". This is where we also observe a very severe case of delusion since it is akin to trying to influence a guy carrying loaded Mossberg 12-gauge shot gun with Daisy bi-bi gun. "Influencing", in general, works in dyadic relations only when one side can make the other side hurt in order to condition its responses, that is to say influence its behavior (Pavlovian responses that is)--the United States long ago lost this ability, after March 1st 2018 (in reality, much earlier) this ability was completely reversed, with Russia having more options for response and thus being very flexible. Solomonov merely elaborates on what is already clear for a long time to anyone with even rudimentary understanding of the process of calculation of required force and about response-head-on (otventno-vstrechnyi) strike.
In a clown show by Al-Jazeera with such "experts" as Pavel Falgnehauer, Richard Weitz of Hudson Institute went as far as stating that latest news on Avangard "do not fundamentally change" the calculus of Russian-American nuclear deterrence, since both sides still retain the ability to mutually "overwhelm" each-other defenses.
Well, this statement, indeed, could have been made only by an "expert" with degrees in political "science" and "economics" not by professional. Weitz is no professional, he is an agenda-pusher from RAND-induced "think-tank" and has no expertise in modern warfare, Solomonov, however, does. In fact, he is the guy with a world-class top level technological education and military service, you may have guessed it already, in Strategic Missile Troops. Solomonov thinks, when one considers well-known inability of US missile defense to stop even single primitive North Korean missile, and is explicit in defining new military paradigm.
В этом смысле ядерный потенциал Соединённых Штатов как был мощным,
так и остаётся. Другое дело, что, приняв на вооружение несколько
модифицированную систему по сравнению с той, что была в Советском Союзе,
мы создали новое поколение наземных и морских стратегических ядерных
сил, которые минимизировали затраты на их создание благодаря унификации.
За последние 10–15 лет мы ушли далеко. С точки зрения
тактико-технических характеристик и характеристик, которые вытекают из
условий боевого применения, по сравнению с западными аналогами. Это то, чем мы сегодня обладаем по сравнению с американскими
аналогами – с точки зрения инвариантности к меняющимся внешним условиям.
Ну, например, это появление более совершенных систем ракетной обороны.
Например, нанесение ответного удара в более жестоких условиях
упреждающего удара, живучести, сохранение средств боевого управления и
связи в критических ситуациях неожиданной агрессии и т.д., всё это
создало наше преимущество. Действительно, имеет место опережение
американцев минимум на 10–15 лет. Это не значит, что они этого не
сделают. Если займутся, лет через 10–15 смогут сделать то же самое.
-Кто дышит нам в спину? Нам и американцам. Я имею в виду членов ядерного клуба.
– Никто. С точки зрения возможности нашего стратегического ядерного
потенциала мы далеко впереди. Это не хвальба. Это объективно.
Translation:
A. (In this sense) the American nuclear potential was and remains strong. Another matter that, by accepting a somewhat modernized system, when compared to the Soviet one, we created a new generation of land-based and naval strategic nuclear forces, which minimized our expenses due to their unification. In the last 10-15 years we moved very far, from the point of view of tactical-technical characteristics and characteristics which are defined by the conditions of combat use, when compared to Western analogues. This is what we have compared to American analogues--from the point of view of invariance to new, changing external conditions. For example, such as the appearance of more advanced anti-missile defense systems. As an example, a response strike under much more difficult conditions of a preventive strike, survivability, retention of the means of control and communications in critical situations of unexpected aggression etc., all that is our advantage. Indeed, we lead Americans by 10-15 years. This doesn't mean that they will not be able to do the same. If they put their minds to it they can do the same.
Q. Who is breathing down our necks? I mean us and Americans, I mean members of the nuclear club?
A. Nobody. From the point of view of our nuclear potential we are far ahead. This is not bravado, it is objective.
So, I would suggest Mr. Weitz to read attentively and take in what Solomonov said a week ago and try to understand a simple military truism which today is as valid as it ever was--those who can control escalation, control the war and they create conditions for victory. It is especially true for nuclear age--here it comes--because Russia can conduct strategic strikes at US proper both in nuclear and conventional way and that opens the whole other strategic (and political, and philosophical) can of worms altogether. Continuous deployment of hyper-sonic weapons by Russia today, be that 3M22 Zircon, Kinzhal, Avangard and whatever comes next after them, together with other stand-off weapons, allows Russia to defeat any combination of threats WITHOUT resorting to nuclear weapons. I cannot convey enough a significance of this paradigm shift in warfare, nor can I foresee all ramifications of this, I just know that they are gigantic. But then again, the US either rethinks and cleanses her whole "expertise" field, especially in relation to Russia and warfare, or she will continue to believe in validity of her, mostly wrong, assessments of the outside world and will either stumble into disastrous conflict or will completely fade away as great power.
P.S. I will comment later on China's military role in all this--I have some piece on that--I may try first to run it by Ron Unz.
P.P.S. Recall Frank Herbert's Dune and convention on the use of the atomics--if used without authorization by Landsraad, any house would be completely destroyed. In related news, any Bulava SLBM is capable of carrying several hyper-sonic highly maneuverable blocks capable to provide conventional strikes.
