Sunday, November 22, 2020

Recall This?

I will remind you what I wrote in March this year once the whole thing with COVID-19 unfolded. 

Now, I can be more specific. Before being more specific I need to remind you couple things: 

1. You all well know that I am no Sinophile--I am on record, constantly, that Russian-Chinese "alliance" is a situational one, and that it is predicated on political and economic stability of China. Russia is a thing in itself and is civilization on her own. But modern Russia IS NOT an Asiatic country.

2. China is a great civilization with rich culture and an extremely complex ethnic and cultural composition. It also has a mind-boggling variety of dialects, which precludes any person without highly focused effort to study China, to be called a Sinologist. I am no Sinologist, not even close and I fully understand this. I, as well as many others in my line of writing, thus are forced to rely on the opinions of real Sinologists. 

I have couple of sources I use for insights into China's economic and political reality, one of those sources being Nikolai Vavilov (no relation to other Vavilov, a geneticist of Stalin-times fame) who has an excellent grasp of Chinese political and economic elites. Here is  one of his books on China (The Uncrowned Kings of China) in Russian, New one came out recently and Nikolai has a serious claim on knowledge on China, not only he lived and worked in China for many years, including work for Chinese Xinhua news-agency. He is fluent in many Chinese dialects, so when he speaks, I listen. And now important stuff. 

1. China DOES NOT offer world the alternative to globalism. China IS a globalist power and for many people who for years have been misled by China's massive scale economic plans, the recent G-20 address by Xi should come as an unpleasant surprise. Here are some points, we start with this:  

This is, for now, merely a suggestion but the nature of this suggestion is that the world should follow China's already in place and in active use code system which does this (In Russian):

a) Each Chinese city has its own "platform" on Alipay or WeChat, where everyone is obliged to register with their own "code";

b) The system tracks everyone by their QR-code and assigns the color in which "green" means that you can go pretty much anywhere, and then limitations are imposed if the code is "orange", let alone "red" which forbids any movements. 

Well, my friends, if this de facto electronic concentration camp (or ghetto) hasn't been implemented yet in your neighborhood, let's open Comrade Xi's remarks on the BRICS summit five days ago and here is what he said:

Around the world, COVID-19 is posing a grave threat to people’s life and well-being. The global public health system is facing a severe test. Human society is going through the most serious pandemic in the past century. International trade and investment have shrunk considerably. The flow of goods and personnel has been impeded. Factors for uncertainty and instability are numerous. The world economy is witnessing the worst recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Unilateralism, protectionism and acts of bullying are becoming rampant, and the deficit in governance, trust, development and peace is widening instead of narrowing. Despite all this, we remain convinced that the theme of our times, peace and development, has not changed, and that the trend toward multipolarity and economic globalization cannot be turned around. We must keep people’s welfare close to heart and pursue the vision of a community with a shared future for mankind. Through concrete actions, we will contribute our share to making the world a better place for everyone.

Wait a minute! No, no, no, no--this is NOT how it works--it is precisely economic globalization and the orthodoxy of a Free Trade which are in the foundation of the global economic crisis, for which grossly inflated threat of COVID-19, serves as a good excuse. Including a strange correlation between Chinese so called Komsomol (Hu Yaobang's Trotskist and globalist heirs) leaders getting to power with American Democratic Party Presidents being elected. Correlation doesn't mean causality, do not misinterpret me, but what is not open for misinterpretation is the fact that:

1. China needs globalism because...

2. Chinese economy, for all its gigantic size, is not doing that well

3. US Democrats are truly neo-left globalist cabal who also seem to "influence" Comrade Xi at BRICS Summit. Like this, as he himself states:

Fifth, we need to pursue green and low-carbon development, and strive for harmony between man and nature.

How not well, you may ask, is China's economy? Simple: China STILL is dependent on these two markets:

1. The United States--a lot of statistics is being faked to show China "reducing" this dependency. Reality, however, is grim for China and the US--the level of mutual dependency remains very high.

2. Japan. And then South Korea.

Remove them and China's economy collapses. But then, of course, there is this:

In this report, we show how China’s production of coal-intensive products is accelerating. In October, steel production rose 13% year-on-year, aluminium  rose 11%, cement rose 10%, and electricity production rose 7%. China’s GDP data confirms that the industrial sector provided a higher proportion of its economic growth this summer than at any time since at least 2016. Consequently, China has produced almost 60% of the world’s steel, aluminium and cement so far this year. In addition, steel and aluminium exports have collapsed, meaning China itself is using more of these products. Meanwhile, China’s coal-fired electricity generation is unchanged from last year, because of high electricity demand outpacing clean electricity investment. Coal generation in the rest of the world, by comparison, is expected to fall by about 12% this year, meaning China’s share of global coal generation will rise to 53%.

Pay attention to highlighted and remember, 65% of China's electricity generation is based on coal, which increasingly becomes scarce and increasingly expensive to extract with many mines in China already going as deep as 1,000 meters (1 kilometer). And we all know what that means, right? Just to give you some idea on generation--in the United States coal amounts to 22.8% of generating sources, In Russia--it amounts to around 16%, so you get my drift, right? Well, this also is not the whole story, costs for China will continue to grow and the shift from coal to gas, nuclear and other sources is a daunting task for the export economy the size of China's and which is dramatically vulnerable to fluctuations on markets. Let's remember what was the foundation of Trump's economic platform which he was running on--right, decoupling from China. Recall also an abrupt limitation to education of Chinese students and researchers in the United States. Nasty, aggressive? Undeniably so, typical arrogance BUT...give Trump, for all his bluster and being full of shit, a credit, he found Chinese cojones and grabbed them. And now the main part:

1. China's attempt to focus on domestic consumption to support her economy has failed (in Russian);

2. "Second circulation" policy is now in place, another attempt at internal market. Enter Nikolai Vavilov (sadly in Russian only). 

Right, 12 years China was effectively printing money, they went, right, right, right, into the real estate. Guess, China was becoming the US 2.0 by producing debt. Guess what this second attempt will be? Right, inflation and debt and "export", again. But now even more, while many praise recent RCEP signed by China and East Asian nations, many forget that this same RCEP, which originally was a Japanese idea, reduces 90% of tariffs not only for China-made consumer goods, but for such things, among many, as Japanese cars and parts for them, same goes for Korean automakers. Bye, bye Chinese auto-industry. Now that you know these peculiar facts, ask yourself a question if at least some influential parts of Chinese elites were not interested in removing radically anti-Chinese Trump and getting a democrat in the office? There is another funny fact, the origin and spread of COVID-19 somehow was limited to the cities and provinces which are managed by those very same representatives of China's Komsomol who made fortunes at the American market. Coincidences, coincidences. How can you remove Trump? Right. 

But in general, especially after Xi's remarks at BRICS' summit it remains patently clear that the only way China can remain more or less (primarily less) healthy, for now at least, economically is to continue to export until the whole thing collapses, because globalism and Free Trade are collapsing. Yet, Xi praises these moribund practices as if nothing what is happening in the world today is related to the subjects he praised. I will omit here the sheer anti-scientific idiocy of CO2 emissions. Of course, Chinese didn't congratulate uncle Joe with becoming a President-elect (and he is still not), in fact, the statement of Chinese Foreign Ministry (a level below official protocol) was down-right humiliating to Biden, who insulted Xi and China not for once. But behind globalist totalitarian mafia of the Democratic Party we all can see the silhouettes of the Clintons and the Obamas and their vast network of political operatives who want to turn the United States, the remnants of the flawed Republic, into the playground of the most destructive, amoral, anti-human and criminal forces which will stop at nothing, including high treason to get to power. Remember this? 

I do. It is a good idea to refresh sometimes a decade old statements, they contain so much in them. Recall who was China's President then? Right, and read what Hu Jintao's one of the main foreign policy "accomplishments" was during his term.

This phrase opens a whole new can of worms which allows to understand why Russians are really nonchalant about CREP and why all this blatter about Russia being junior partner in Russian-Chinese duo is just that--pure BS. There are many things we don't see, as it is supposed to be in the real life, but there is a reason why I constantly point out to a simple fact of China still preferring Russia to lead in geopolitical arena. So, do I say that COVID-19 is a global operation of influence? No, what I say it that there is a viable motive. And again, correlation does not mean causality but only sober and factual assessment of real strength of participants in the game can give good insight into intentions of everyone. 

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