72 Hours, No Less.

Incoming (pun is intended) Biden Admin, same as Germans, has a knack for appointing unqualified people (the fact that they are women is secondary here) to most important government posts. Enter Michele Flournoy a new Sec.Def. Let's open the biography of this "remarkable" woman. We start with "education":

Flournoy attended Beverly Hills High School in Beverly Hills, California. She was an exchange student in Belgium for one year, where she learned French. She studied at Harvard College where she received a bachelor of arts degree. She received an M.Litt. in international relations in 1983 from Oxford University, where she was a Newton-Tatum scholar at Balliol College. From 1989 until 1993 she was at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, where she was a research fellow in its International Security Program.

As you can see yourself--Flournoy has an educational background which forms, always, professional outlook in any person with IQ higher than room temperature, from the git go, in humanities. Flournoy's "foundation" is that in the literature, or, speaking broadly, degree in glorified English. In this case, how the Harvard's JFK's School of Government can help run a DoD remains a complete mystery to me, because studying "government" and "researching" it is really easy for anyone with a half-brain in the their heads, especially the way it is being done in the US, while, as an example, studying Theory of Operations or principles of weapons' design and integration is hard. Really really hard, because to even approach these studies one needs to be really good in math, physics and other natural sciences in mid to high school, then carry this "goodness" over to educational institution which trains one in STEM expansion to the robust university level and only then, one may start talking about even approaching the level of "foundation" which is imperative for understanding military, any military, but especially one on the level of the US military. 

Recall Russia's Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's truism. 

I know a large number of absolutely wonderful financiers, economists who used to be not very good engineers, but I don't know a single, even not a very good one, engineer who used to be good financier or economist.  

Mind you, Mishustin graduated Russia's (much deeper and much harder programs than Western Bachelor of Science) famous STANKIN and completed his post-graduate studies there with specialization in Systems Engineering. So, the guy knows what he is talking about. And this is what precisely applies to Flournoy whose accomplishments under Clinton and Obama, when she was involved, include:

1. While serving under the Clinton administration as a deputy assistant secretary of defense, Flournoy assisted in drafting the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review, which argued that "determined U.S. forces must be capable of fighting and winning two major theater wars nearly simultaneously." I know, I know, keep your smirks to yourself, I do;

2. While serving in the Obama administration, Flournoy crafted the administration's policy of counter-insurgency in Afghanistan. She supported the surge of troops in Afghanistan and helped to design the administration's policy in that regard. In 2009, as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, she also supported a US "civilian surge" in Afghanistan, coupling increased economic aid with at least 400 new counter-insurgency experts, and doubling the US military presence to 68,000 troops by the end of the year.

As you can see, Flournoy's list of "accomplishments" (LOL) includes some really fascinating things which Arkady Averchenko long ago described in his immortal "The Specialist In Military Affairs". I elaborate on the "quality" or, rather lack thereof, of America's "elites" who are utterly uneducated and unqualified to run the country in depth in all my books. Those who read them know how many examples I present in them--many, very many. Flournoy fits the bill of America's military incompetence really well. So, Flournoy's recent stratagem is a fucking wowser!

The next Pentagon chief could cement the US’ already hard defence line on China, with one contender suggesting that American forces could bolster deterrence with the ability to “sink all” Chinese vessels “within 72 hours” in the South China Sea

Let me be very clear here, before I comment on this absolute fucking stupidity which can only be used as an Exhibit A of human arrogance and lack of any culture--the United States Navy is much better than PLAN. Even if to consider the US Navy's rough shape today. It is better not only because the US Navy has submarine forces which make China's submarines look like a bunch of obsolete jalopies, or because the US Navy has more aircraft carriers. No, within First Island Chain even this advantage drops precipitously because the US Navy simply has no viable weapon systems which are adequate to deal with modern Air Defense which China has, ranging from Chinese "versions" of S-300s to Russian-made S-400. No, the US Navy's advantage is in its operational history and still (for how long, I don't know, probably another 10-15 years) very high level of professionalism of the officer corps and still very impressive esprit de corps' which rests on the foundation of a magnificent history in the Pacific Theater in WW II. China simply has nothing comparable and, in the open ocean, such as Indian Ocean SLOCs, the US Navy would tear a new one to PLAN, especially if it deploy there couple-three CBGs if, God forbids, shit hits the fan in biblical amounts. 

But South China Sea? Did Flournoy even bother to look at the map? Does she even have a concept of how naval forces deploy, how they interact with heterogeneous forces such as Air Force, Air Defense forces, how targeting is developed, what is required.... But wait a minute, even these guys understand some, hm, "minor" issue with South China Sea, because the Island of Hainan is located so strategically into the South China Sea that:

Two data points, including a Notice to Airmen that cordoned off a patch of airspace southeast of Hainan Island and a maritime exclusion zone announced recently by the Hainan Maritime Safety Administration, paint a picture of a ballistic missile test. (See this helpful map from Henri Kenhmann at East Pendulum.)...In fact, Sunday’s ASBM test may have inaugurated the PLARF’s new base on Hainan Island, which is China’s southernmost province, adjacent to the South China sea. As analysts noted last year, a new PLARF base has been established some 10 kilometers west of Danzhou city on Hainan. The base’s location makes it an excellent candidate site for a possible ASBM launch that would have flown through the NOTAM zone and splashed down in the maritime exclusion zone. The range from the Danzhou PLARF base to the maritime exclusion zone suggests that missile in question may have been the 1,500 kilometer-range DF-21D.

I understand, they do not teach those things in Literature programs in universities or in JFK School of Government, but if they would, they would have provided a serious review of China's military capabilities in this precise area and how China's system out-ranges anything the United States has in its arsenal to attack China's naval assets there. Flournoy, obviously, doesn't understand the concept of a salvo(s) and deployment of forces for launching it(them). She obviously doesn't understand how criteria of effectiveness (usually P(s)--probability of success, predicated on the probabilities P(k) of hitting and killing targets) are calculated not how required forces are calculated also. I am sure she read some books on war while writing her Literature thesis--you know Lord of the Rings or Star Wars books--but evidently this lady has about the same grasp of the modern war as I have of the Chinese choreography. She really should look at the map, for a warmup, and using compass try to draw circumferences which stand for the ranges of Chinese (and Russian-made) missiles and combat aircraft of PLAAF which could be brought to bear in the South China Sea if the United States decides to commit a suicide by "sinking in 72 hours" whatever the PLAN has there. Good luck doing this, especially once Chinese Air Force (PLAAF) deploys there part of its fairly impressive combat aviation--a thing US carrier aviation never encountered in ages, in fact since the Vietnam War. Add here Russians providing real time situational awareness and targeting to Chinese... so, you get the idea. If ever new Russian 3M54 appear there, the survival rate of the US Navy surface assets will drop precipitously, but then again, who knows what Chinese already have from Russia. I know redeployment of Chinese SU-35s and SU-30s alone to the theater may pretty much close the issue of US CBGs in the area, not that they are not going to be fat prestigious targets. 

I can go on, and on, and on on this issue but... behold, this is America's (most likely) new Sec.Def--a person with degree in arts and in how to "run" the US, which is ungovernable at this stage in principle. Scary, eh? Well, welcome to the brand new world where your gender, or skin color, are the main criteria for being hired. This is not to speak of womanisation of the Western governance in general, when women with at best questionable backgrounds are being assigned top positions only because they are women, not because they are competent--there are many competent women out there, who are no political appointees but top notch professionals. They will never make the list. So, and you though Trump's national "security" team was bad. LOL. Get the load of that--that could be fun. Boy, you should read a biography of incoming Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, I don't know how Russia's professionals are going to communicate with her--excusing themselves to leave the room to go out and laugh hysterically, before returning back to the negotiating table. The farce of the American governance can not be hidden anymore, what is transpiring has only one name--full disintegration of institutions of power and that is already having very serious ramifications but don't try to explain it to incoming Administration--they will not be able to even grasp it, they are that unqualified across the board. I am sure they will be hard at work planning defeat of Russia and entering Kremlin in five days after the start of the war. Hey, and why not? I am sure Michele Flournoy can even write a book on that, after all--she has a graduate degree in literature. I am sure she can write this book in 72 hours, or 12 parsecs, or whatever...