This Issue Is Not Going Away.

Well, then I might as well address it. I am talking about this whole AUKUS affair and France losing huge contact on submarines for Royal Australian Navy. At this stage I am not interested in technical minutiae of this whole scandal, because it is useless anyway to concentrate on technical details of something which may change many times before, and if, it comes to fruition. I am, however, as always, interested in fundamental factors defining the framework. Le Drian and anyone in France' political top can express their frustration and play geopolitical games whatever they want, such as running to India:

On Friday, France recalled its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra after Australia scrapped a major submarine program with France in favor of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines with the help of the US and UK. Paris furiously protested the new arrangement between Australia, the US and UK, known as AUKUS. Le Drian called the ditching of French-Australian submarine program “a stab in the back.”

It still doesn't change the fact that in the times of a severe, terminal crisis of Pax Americana and Western liberalism, France is not a global superpower and is only important as an attachment to the Anglo-Saxon world which is in a desperate fight for its survival as one of the global power poles. Simple as that. France is simply not that important for this existential struggle. In the end, D.C. and London care about themselves first, however distorted and delusional this care is, and Paris is viewed merely as a "food" and will be consumed if necessity and opportunity arise. You all may counter that France has her own nuclear deterrent, she has Renault and is the home for Airbus, she has her own space program etc. Right. It all is present, but let's not forget the definition, not West's political pseudo science BS, of global power. Right, the definition is Jeffrey Barnett's (not to be mistaken with Corelli Barnett) 14 points and allow me to remind you what they are. Barnett listed them in the US Army War College quarterly Parameteres in 1994.  No matter how France's achievements are considered, some of them with well deserved respect, France simply does not dominate any of those 14 points. 

France does not dominate access to space, US, Russia, China and India do, France doesn't control Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOC), the United States, China and Russia do, France certainly does not provide the majority of the finished goods, China does and France certainly does not dominate the high-tech weapons industry, US and Russia do. Even if to imagine that tomorrow Marine Nationale will add two other nuclear powered aircraft carriers to its order of battle, this still will not make France a global power. Militarily and economically France is a second tier power, which surrendered part of her sovereignty to supranational organizations such as NATO and EU and thus fails in the most important criterion defining global or superpower--fully independent and protected global policies. France also is not capable to create and maintain any kind of meaningful alliance on her own. The United States and Russia can, while China, due to her economic and demographic enormity, is an alliance in and of herself. Plus China and Russia DO have alliance between each-other. 

So, in this case, being a second tier regional power, France cannot expect her interests to be seriously considered when one talks about such immense, financially, projects as AUKUS. Alliances are created not only against someone but also for an exclusive access to capitals and markets, especially weapons markets, within those alliances. In this particular case France is an outsider and no matter what hyperbole frustrated French politicians use describing "betrayal" of France by Anglo-Saxons, it is what it is. Scott Ritter may well be right when describing this AUKUS thingy as: this is a story of geopolitically driven military procurement gone mad. But when one considers US' economic state which can only be described as FUBAR or clusterfuck, all means are good for maintaining a cash flow and France was simply removed on the road to this cash flow. Simple as that. Desperate times, desperate measures. Truism, really. 

So, no matter how much we discuss technical details of this whole circus, some lessons from it are already obvious and here I subscribe to every word in Ritter's conclusion:

But the fact remains that the US has no meaningful military counter to China, the UK is not capable of sustaining any credible military presence in the Pacific, and Australia cannot afford to acquire and operate a force of eight nuclear-powered attack submarines. The Australian nuclear submarine project is a dangerous joke that only further exacerbates the existing geopolitical crisis with China by injecting a military dimension which will never see the light of day. 

This whole AUKUS thing, as I already stated previously, is a great indicator of a waning power of the United States, which in desperate attempts to preserve the remnants of her once self-proclaimed global hegemony, will go to any length, hopefully, short of nuclear war, and if it takes to humiliate and "sacrifice" France, so be it. Western Europe should get ready to be, as I wrote for many years (I quote one from 2 years ago):

Macron makes one mistake here. Well, several mistakes, actually. For starters "Pushing Russia from Europe" was not a "strategic mistake"--that was the plan and main objective of Washington, headed then by Obama and being continuously implemented now by Trump Administration. Moreover, "pushing Russia" out is not just about Russia, but by implication about Europe itself. Europe as it exists today is of no interest to Russia in any metaphysical sense, except for purely economic interest as a market, but majority of Russians are counting their blessings now because of this "pushing out" largely succeeding. Europe, meanwhile, is a sacrificial lamb for the United States, which, in a desperate attempt to save herself, will demolish Europe economically because European elites are a pathetic parody on a required political leadership, some of them are outright imbeciles, not to mention that vast swathes of them are effectively products of the American selection. So, no--let Europe deal with the US, or vice-versa, and keep Russia out of it. 

So, don't tell me that I didn't warn you. Oh, come on, the United States needs to eat too. The moment France reintegrated into NATO fully in 2009, a process championed by then President Sarkozy, it was all over for France. Too bad they didn't see it coming. Well, they see it now. As they say: better late than never. Tolstoy saw it long time ago:

A Frenchman is self-assured because he regards himself personally, both in mind and body, as irresistibly attractive to men and women. An Englishman is self-assured, as being a citizen of the best-organized state in the world, and therefore as an Englishman always knows what he should do and knows that all he does as an Englishman is undoubtedly correct. An Italian is self-assured because he is excitable and easily forgets himself and other people. A Russian is self-assured just because he knows nothing and does not want to know anything, since he does not believe that anything can be known. The German’s self-assurance is worst of all, stronger and more repulsive than any other, because he imagines that he knows the truth—science—which he himself has invented but which is for him the absolute truth. 

Well, what can I say. It is the 21st Century and France learned absolutely nothing since her last Titan and Hero departed in 1969. Or, rather, was forced out by what many still consider a color revolution organized by the US. Time to face consequences.  

Meanwhile Russia continues to build those missile corvettes as if there is no tomorrow, the latest one, Grad (Hail), was floated out at Zelenodolsk yesterday (video in Russian). 

With new 4,500 kilometer range 3M14M coming up, these ships can pretty much strike anything in Europe from some river or lake deep within Russia's territory. Just in case. In other rfelated news:

TEHRAN (Iran News) – Moscow Signs Deal With Tehran to Boost Aircraft Sales.The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsia) and the Civil Aviation Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on September 6, 2021, intended to “create favorable conditions for the approval of the standard design of Russian civil aviation equipment when exported to Iran.” The agreement is the result of negotiations that took place between the two aviation authorities in June 2021, Rosaviatsia explained in a statement.

Iran will get a large number of fully Russified SSJ-100Rs. MS-21 is in line, once Russia satisfies her internal commercial aviation needs.

This Is Huge.

All participants of summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) signed the document about initiation of the procedure for acceptance (admitting) of Iran to SCO. 

ТЕГЕРАН, 17 сентября. /ТАСС/. Участники саммита Шанхайской организации сотрудничества (ШОС), который проходил в Душанбе, подписали документ о сотрудничестве, предполагающий начало процесса приема Ирана в организацию. Об этом было объявлено в пятницу в ходе саммита. "О начале процедуры приема Исламской республики Иран в члены ШОС", - объявили название подписанного документа. Ранее президент РФ Владимир Путин на саммите ШОС заявил, что Россия поддерживает начало процедуры приема Ирана в организацию.

Translation: TEHERAN, September 17. / TASS /. Participants of the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which took place in Dushanbe, signed a document on cooperation, suggesting the beginning of the process of admitting Iran to the organization. This was announced on Friday during the summit. "On the beginning of the procedure for admitting the Islamic Republic of Iran to the SCO membership," the title of the signed document was announced. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the SCO summit that Russia supports the beginning of the procedure for admitting Iran to the organization.

We knew it was coming, but geopolitical ramifications of that are enormous. Multipolar world is here, it is now and we can only guess what work is being done behind the scene for unification of a colossal Eurasian land-mass and market into a single geopolitical entity. Keep in mind the size of this whole thing--it dwarfs both EU and North America in every single metric including, which is hugely important, militarily. Now recent words by Borisov about India being "in-line" for S-500 get new meaning. But then again, I am writing on Eurasian security perimeter for years. 

It is Friday, alright, and I mourn the untimely death of Norm Macdonald, a real comic and a closet intellectual. His impression of Bob Dole and his SNL Weekend Update in times when SNL was genuinely funny are immortalized today thanks to internet and YouTube. I salute you Norm. 

You were more than just a great comic, you were a great human.

Karmik Bitchitude.

Maria Zakharova certainly knows physical principles of boomerang and reacting to Australia "choosing" US-British nuclear subs instead of French diesel ones and we are talking about gigantic multi-billion dollar contract. 

МОСКВА, 16 сен — РИА Новости. Официальный представитель МИД России Мария Захарова, комментируя разрыв контракта между Австралией и Францией на создание подлодок, напомнила Парижу об их решении в ситуации с производством авианосцев "Мистраль".

Translation: MOSCOW, September 16 - RIA Novosti. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova, commenting on the breaking the contract between Australia and France for submarines, reminded Paris of their decision in the situation with the production of the Mistral aircraft carriers.

Ah, the karma, what a bitch. Thankfully, Russia never got her Mistrals and that was a huge blessing in disguise, but then again, as I state in my video, it is about both shrinking financial pie of the combined West and about dropping non Anglo-Saxon "ally" of France in favor of the increase of the "cohesion" of Anglo-Saxondom in a face of a lot of geopolitical centrifugal forces exacerbated by the Washington's desire to "counter" China. 

Now French complain: 

France's foreign minister has spoken of his "anger" and "bitterness" and has criticized the US and Britain, after the allies agreed a deal to supply nuclear submarines to Australia, undoing Paris' $40-billion deal for French subs. "I am angry and bitter. This isn't done between allies," Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told franceinfo radio on Thursday morning, after the leaders of Australia, the UK and US convened a virtual press conference on Wednesday night, announcing the AUKUS pact and the delivery of conventionally-armed nuclear-power submarines to Canberra.The delivery of the nuclear subs under the AUKUS (Australia, UK, US) pact means Canberra will scrap a 2016 deal with French firm Naval Group to upgrade its fleet with more diesel submarines. The scrapped deal was reportedly worth $40 billion."This brutal, unilateral and unpredictable decision reminds me a lot of what Mr Trump used to do," Le Drian stated. He also took aim at Canberra, "it's a stab in the back. We created a relationship of trust with Australia and that trust has been broken." 

I am really impressed with France's insouciance in the times leading to this breach of the contract--did Elysee Palace even try to figure out a pecking order recently? Nah, with people like Macron trying to play a big honcho, it is not surprising that France is bitter because she was decisively shown her proper place of a US lap-dog and that of merely regional power, despite France having her own nuclear deterrent. Macron and his people better wake up and face the reality or, for that matter, learn France's recent history when France actually mattered--yes, yes, I am talking about the times of Charles de Gaulle and France's independent foreign policy. Today, France is just another EU and NATO country living with the phantom pains of past greatness, with the rare exception of football. One had to ask the question, really, on why UK decided to leave the EU? For all degeneracy of British "elites" one cannot deny them some level of intuition and cynicism when deciding which camp to join: doomed EU with a bunch of continental nobodies when taken separately or the United States, which, while in a very rough clusterfuckish shape, at least has some shot at some future, plus London loves to think about itself that it matters, and within the framework of Anglo-Saxondom it does, unlike it is the case when global power balance is considered. 

 

Unlike the UK, France has nobody to run to. Moscow now puts a lot of popcorn in those Kremlin microwaves and is preparing for a circus and a delightful time of schadenfreude. I would. Especially now, when S-500s started to arrive to the front line units (in Russian) and if that wasn't enough, Borisov dropped another bomblet of sorts, when stated that potentially India may become a buyer of S-500s but only after Russia's Air Defense will have all of its needs satisfied (in Russian). After that he proceeded to underscore that Russia will preserve her lead in hyper-sonic weapons and with S-500s now in serial production and being procured to the front line units it becomes clear that any attempts to place any type of low orbit vehicles (that is why the Starlink constellation of mini-satellites is being developed really) and control them there will be, in case of, God forbid, war, stopped and any combat assets destroyed. These are the quickening times and Australia getting (or having them shoved it down her throat) nuclear subs is but one of the increasingly manifest signs of a new multi-polar world taking shape.  

My Fast Input.

It is not necessarily THAT sensational. 

The US, UK and Australia have announced a new military initiative, dedicated to a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” The first step of the alliance that appears aimed against China is to provide Canberra with nuclear submarines.British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison joined US President Joe Biden in a virtual three-way announcement of what Biden called the “new phase of trilateral security cooperation” between the old allies on Wednesday.The future of the three countries and even the world “depends on the free and open Indo-Pacific enduring and flourishing in the decades ahead,” Biden said, adding that AUKUS would be about making sure each nation has “most modern capabilities we need.”

I explain why it is not that sensational in my latest video. 

This is the work in progress. So, don't judge too harshly. Do not forget (if you can) to support me on Patreon. I really need that second Ferrari;))

I Love It. Great Primer.

For people who really want to know basics, not some protocol of modern Combat Informational Control System doing it for you with sensors feeding data straight to it, here is some great stuff on early ASW. USSR also had a huge number of similar films. So, enjoy, it is very basic, without any math--the physics and mathematics remained essentially the same since then, technology changed. But it is a great intro for those who want to have some visual representation of aerial ASW. I know one person here who will have a blast watching it;))) And he is my good friend. 

Remember, this was the time when the officer and operators were doing actual "signal processing". I love this polygraph MAD (Magnetic Anomaly Detector). Enjoy.

Understanding Is Good.

Like General John Hyten understands. Especially when talking to such a "think-buggy" as Brookings, known to be a nest of exceptionalist and neocon ideas. 

Speaking at a meeting hosted by Washington think-tank The Brookings Institution on Monday, Vice Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General John E. Hyten warned of the risks if conflicts spiral out of control, and expressed hope that cooler heads can prevail. "We never fought the Soviet Union," he said. "As for the great powers, our goal is to never go to war with China and Russia." According to Hyten, such an event would "destroy the world and the global economy. It will be bad for everyone, and we have to ensure that we do not go down that path." However, the general went on, previous deals between Moscow and NATO after the fall of the USSR concluded "Russia was not a threat any more." At the same time, however, he alleges that the Russians were "modernizing their entire nuclear arsenal." This, he says, was because "I think they were worried about the US."

Actually, give it up for Hyten--he talks totally common sense things and, what is really important, and I know it for sure, neither Russia nor China want the war with the United States. In fact, his conclusion on modernization of Russia's nuclear arsenal is spot on--Russia was worried about the US. Russia still worries about the US, this time because of a major clusterfuck the country has become and Russians are keenly aware that bat shit crazy element in US decision-making circuit is still present and one cannot completely exclude a possibility of those people pushing the United States to the brink of unleashing a war of desperation. Good that Hyten speaks to one such institution where neocon ideas are popular due to military ignorance of people exercising those and the words of General Hyten can only be commended. But as I am on record non-stop, the remaining expertise about the outside world rests today primarily, not exclusively, with some segments in the US military, who, by the virtue of their profession, have understanding of a horrendous price if the United States decides to unleash a suicidal war. 

Russians worry, alright. They train today, at Zapad-2021 maneuvers, a creation of a local AD network, designed to repel a massive attack on Russia's forces in case of real war. 

For those who may ask, S1 Pantsirs have a ground-attack capability and their guns are actually extremely effective against armored ground targets and personnel. In related stream of military porn from Zapad-2021 remotely controlled and robotic combat means (such as Uran-9 which was improved after Syria's underwhelming performance) and some new combat vehicles such as BMD-4. 

As they say, Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum.  Especially in times like these we have on our hands. 

 

It does look real hm... skynettish. But then again, it is 21st Century, after all. Russia finally recognized that you either are powerful or you are a slave. Russians don't like to be slaves and that is why they build ultra-modern armed forces. 

Now, I want to thank all those people who became my patrons on Patreon. I hope our relations will be long-lasting and to the benefit of both parties. I hope to start making new videos by the end of this week. But, yes, I will need all support I can get to develop my teeny-weeny media "empire", especially after reading materials such as this (thanks to Bernhard from Moon of Alabama for finding these "pearls"), damn, the delusion is strong on this one. 

The new age of American power. Despite forecasts of decline following the Afghanistan withdrawal, the US military is planning another century of global domination.

You see, this is why I welcome sober and realistic opinions of real professionals, such as General Hyten, especially spoken to those who still reside in their make-believe world of America's omnipotence.

Some Dollars and Cents.

I think, guys, you can support me now at Patreon. And I don't know how it works yet but my page, I think, is:

 https://www.patreon.com/martyanov

So, this is still an ongoing process, but I think I will keep all of what I do totally public for anyone while I'll observe how financial support may develop and depending on what I get as a support, if anything, I will just continue to keep it fully public. So, here it is--please, become a patron.