About Saving Face.

Alexander Mercouris gives a good explanation on the diplomatic situation around Ukraine and as I say and write for years: before any diplomatic moves always look at the military capabilities of the parties to this activity. 

As for NATO's build-up, it is merely a long-planned Defender-Europe 21 exercise whose timeline may have contributed to the Ukrainian stupidly with its own "build-up" and provocations, to make it look like a coordinated "effort". I can totally see those imbeciles in Kiev doing this and thinking themselves to be crafty. As Alexander correctly states, Russia, while having no desire to go all the way, especially having to take care of that shithole of a country which will fall into Russia's lap as a war trophy in case of real war, is ready for any contingency and that is the message, evidently, the West finally got. 

West, being culturally and politically superficial, is, obviously, all about the face and projecting outward of all kinds of pathlogies as a norm, so the projection of utter incompetence of its diplomacy and strategic planning is OK, in West's mind. Exposing that it is a domain filled amateurs and morons is not, even they understand that--they don't like to look weak and incompetent, despite these two being their defining traits. For the students of late Zbiginew Brzezinski pseudo-scientific geopolitical fantasies it took "merely" 20 years to figure out that Russia wants to be left alone but if need be, she will enforce this regime for herself. I am sure such a realization created a cultural shock when Brussels and D.C. started to suspect that Russia doesn't "want" Ukraine. What Russia wants is for this country to rot and implode without excrement from this implosion hitting Russia. West's paying for the clean up of this clusterfuck is also in Russian plans for Ukrainian Bantustan. 

It is a shocking development and revelation for the West since Brzezinski's geopolitical Bible revealed that Russia wants an empire and that such an empire is impossible without Ukraine. In fact, it was separation from Ukraine, and other freeloading former Soviet republics, which spurred Russia's revival. But then again....ahem. The "gas station masquerading as a country" with economy "left in tatters" and being "smaller than the economy of Spain". You all know the routine. But while at it:

The upward revision for Russia came as the IMF revealed a more optimistic forecast for the global economy amid vaccine rollouts. The fund now expects it to expand by 6% in 2021. The fund said that Russia’s fiscal policy was countercyclical in 2020. It also revised the figures for the crisis year, when Russia, like most countries, implemented lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. According to its latest estimates, the Russian economy shrank 3.1%, not the previously reported 3.6%. “There will be some degree of consolidation in 2021 in line with economic recovery, and the deficit is likely to come back to the fiscal rule’s limit in 2022,” the IMF said.... The IMF improved projections for the Russian economy shortly after the World Bank did the same. However, the World Bank is less optimistic, projecting the country’s GDP to grow by 3.3% this year and 3.4% next year.

Well, just to give some comparison. Europe's "economic locomotive", Germany that is, sees the 28th month in a row of Germany's real economy (industrial processing and production) shrinking. That gives one a bit of insight into Russia's rather cool attitude to economic ties to Europe in a sense of seeing a rather grim mid to long-term picture of Europe's economy. So, here is the deal for today. 

A Superb Dedication To Gagarin...

From Whiskey and Gunpowder. A must read tribute by great American mind to Yuri Gagarin and the first step for humanity into space.  

                       The First Starman

Today, we’ll discuss something that happened 60 years ago — April 1961 — that changed the world; indeed, it changed the world and outer space beyond. We still live with the impact of this event.

In related news, Biden calls "killer Putin" and offers to hold a summit to discuss you know...that thing(c), whatever that is. Putin should be very cautious when meeting good ol' (literally) Joe, since if Biden, God forbids, dies, Putin will be blamed because he is, you know, a killer.

WASHINGTON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden called on Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to reduce tensions stirred by a Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border and proposed a summit of the estranged leaders to tackle a raft of disputes. The White House and the Kremlin reported only the second conversation between the two since Biden took office in January, after Western officials urged Moscow to end the build-up and Russia, in words recalling the Cold War, said its "adversary" should keep U.S. warships well away from the Crimea region.

I mean, it is a good development, no doubt about it, it is better to talk than fight, plus Russia is really leaving West for good, after Lavrov's confirmation in his interview to Iranian IRNA yesterday (in Russian) that Russia basically is ready to discard Western pay systems such as Visa and Mastercard and, of course, insulating Russia from other sanction risks from the US and EU. Obviously, the course on the dedollarization was also reiterated. Now Biden, or rather those who control him, suddenly want "stable and predictable relations with Russia". Dudes, supporting a Nazi shithole like Ukraine and calling the President of a superpower "a killer" is a very wrong way of going about it. Again, Russia's departure from the West cannot be stopped any more and for that US "diplomacy" and "intelligence", or whatever passes in the US for these, otherwise respectable and real professionals'-oriented, occupations are responsible together with a cesspool of lowlifes known in the US as main stream media. You get what you paid for, folks.

This Father Is... Cool.

For many people this looks like something really...out there. But it is not. I wrote many times, the creek will turn into the river, inevitably. 

Russia is just the country, which also knows that it is an...arc.

Some Issues Of Numbers.

I wrote yesterday a piece exclusively for Andrei Raevsky (The Saker) where I address some issues re: the salvo of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in case NATO decides to "fight". I don't think that this scenario is likely but just in case, here are some conclusions by me:

...there is plenty of subsonic, supersonic and hypersonic goodness to spread around by Russia’s Black Sea Fleet alone and competent people in Pentagon know this. That is why the appearance of those two US destroyers in the Black Sea is, literally, for the appearance primarily and for trying to collect some intel for what seems today a diminishing probability of confrontation in Donbass. I often write that many people in the US, and I am talking about policy-makers, cannot grasp the scale of the America’s trailing Russia in fire power in all domains. It is not just quantitative; it is qualitative and the gap only continues to widen. But I warned about it for years, didn’t I?

Andrei Raevsky titled (correctly) my piece: Why It Is Not Advised. It is a symptomatic title since today, as if he read my books amd recent writings, Colonel Douglas Macgregor penned a piece for The American Conservative which has a title: Facing the Facts of War with Russia. The Biden administration appears willing to get us into a fight we’re not ready for. I was calling on the US political elites to face the facts for many years now. Now American senior officer, a real professional, with reputation for realistic view of the world outside writes today:

If Russian military power prevails, President Biden’s promise of support means U.S. or Allied NATO air or ground forces may intervene to rescue the Ukrainians from defeat. In Europe, U.S. Army and Marine ground forces are too weak to intervene 500 miles east of the Polish border, even if reinforced in a timely manner by armored brigades. None of NATO’s ground forces are ready to cope with Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH Rocket Artillery Formations. Rockets fired from just five of Russia’s BM-30 SMERCH rocket launchers can devastate an area the size of New York City’s Central Park (843 acres, or 3.2 square miles) in minutes. Thus, if U.S. and allied forces do intervene, they are likely to do so with air assets. How effective Russian integrated air defenses will be is unknown, but it would be ill-advised to underestimate the impact of Russian IADs with phased array radars. Some of the newest air defense systems—like the Russian S-500—are so capable that many U.S. Defense officials privately worry that even warplanes like the F-22, F-35, and the B-2 risk destruction if they attempt to penetrate them.

Macgregor makes one small mistake though. Russia does not need S-500 to close off the skies over Ukraine. The line of modern S-series AD complexes, ranging from S-400 of AD forces to S-300V series of army specific (troops) AD and down to Buk-M3 and Tor-M2--are all integrated into flexible and well-protected network which has NO problem detecting, tracking and shooting down any target, be that small UAV or the most stealthiest aircraft or missile. Plus, of course, if shit hits the fan, Russian Air Force has enough assets to challenge any US air assets, the ones which will survive strikes at air field and bases. 

But this is not what really is important in Macgregor's piece, most important is his corroboration of what I am writing and warning non-stop: the US is nuclear-biased and will initiate nuclear exchange because what is expecting US troops in case of the United States directly intervening into a possible conflict in Ukraine, is the level of human and materiel losses US Armed Forces never experienced in their history. Macgregor, essentially, agrees:

Since prevailing winds in Eastern Europe would spread nuclear fallout across Russia and Central Asia all the way to Korea, the Russian use of nuclear weapons is very unlikely—unless of course, U.S. forces use so-called “tactical nuclear weapons,” which would trigger Russian escalation to the strategic nuclear level with ominous consequences for planet Earth. However, virtually all U.S. and allied military installations, from Estonia to Spain, will be within range of Russian Kalibr Cruise Missiles carrying 1,000 pound, high explosive, conventional warheads.

As I am on record constantly--the United States never fought a war with its Command and Control system under the relentless sustained fire impact and its rear attacked and disorganized. Conventionally, the United States cannot win against Russia in Europe, at least Eastern part of it and Biden Admin better wake up to the reality that it may, indeed, not survive any kind of escalation and, in fact, modern Kalibrs, 3M14Ms, as a matter of fact, have a range of a 4,500 kilometers, as well as 5,000+ kilometer range of X-101 cruise missiles, which will have no issues with penetrating North American airspace when launched by Russia's strategic bombers without even leaving the safety of Russia's airspace.

It is good that Douglas Macgregor goes on record in this case and underscores the fact that Russia can and will, God forbids it comes to this, win conventionally, while the United States loses even in a nuclear conflict. But then again, in this case we all lose. Conveying this reality that the US has no good options against Russia is very important, especially to those people in current admin who have no clue about modern war and how it is fought--and that is the overwhelming majority of the US elites. I don't want to end up being prophetic about the events which I am desperately trying to prevent. Having opinion of such a heavyweight as Douglas Macgregor being very similar to mine helps enormously. 

In related news, Ukrainian clown worries:

A spokesperson for Ukraine’s president say's they've been trying to talk to Russia’s Vladimir Putin about the build-up of Russian troops on the border, but Putin isn't taking the call.

Poor, poor baby. He ain't seen nothing yet. When Russia begins a real build-up of Russian troops, he better be sure he has his jet fueled and ready to go in Borispol airport in Kiev. But this is just in case if he obliges and carries out his orders from his handlers in Washington. He still thinks that the United States is this "the finest fighting force in history", well, he may learn soon enough the real situation if he is not cautious. As Peskov today responded to Blinken's threats about "consequences" (in Russian) almost in Fulbright's manner, that constant threatening with consequences and "paying a price" completely devalues those threats. Recall:

“It is simply not necessary for us to go around forever proclaiming: ‘I am the greatest!’ The more one does this sort of thing, in fact, the more people doubt it….” 

The United States simply exceeded a bragging limit. 

P.S. Today is 60th Anniversary since this guy and those backward Russian peasants launched first human in space. 

I am sure in woke America this will be viewed as "white privilege" and as being very racist.

I Never Liked Them. But It Is Friday....

Canadian rock-scene was always...ahhh....mixed.  But this one was good. 

But still, my favorite will always remain....no, not even Rush...but this great Canadian virtuoso prog-rock band....short version.

Here is the full one. 

It is Friday........

OK, let's get it into a lighter territory;)))

Alrighty, then;))

Another Day--Another Tune.

No shit, pardon my French, and what did they expect? 

КИЕВ, 9 апр — РИА Новости. "Освобождение" Донбасса силовым путем приведет к массовой гибели мирного населения и военнослужащих, а это неприемлемо для Киева, заявил главнокомандующий Вооруженными силами Украины Руслан Хомчак. "Будучи преданным общечеловеческим ценностям и нормам международного гуманитарного права, наше государство на первое место ставит жизнь своих граждан", — цитирует его пресс-центр Генштаба. По словам Хомчака, украинские власти считают политико-дипломатический путь урегулирования ситуации в Донбассе приоритетным. 

Translation:  "Liberation" of Donbass by power means will lead to mass loss of life among civilians and military personnel--this is unacceptable for Kiev, stated  the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Ruslan Khomchak. "Being dedicated to universal human values and norms of humanitarian law (I am under the table trying to get up....), our state places the life of its citizens on the first place (I tried to get up, fell again...)", the press-center of Ukraine's General Staff quotes him. In accordance to Khomchak, Ukrainian political power considers political and diplomatic way of settlement around Donbass to be a priority (I am still lying under the table, LOL).  

 

What happened and how this could be, that mighty Ukraine and her US handlers suddenly want to prioritize "political and diplomatic way". Well, here is some snippet of suddenly a much more peaceful mindset with a bit of explanation of this sudden (not really) change:

The United States on Thursday said it was discussing Russia’s military build-up near the Ukrainian border with Nato allies as fresh reports showed Russia deploying ballistic missiles to the area. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said that Washington was “increasingly concerned” about what has been described as Russia’s largest military manoeuvres in the area since the break-out of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in 2014. “Five Ukrainian soldiers have been killed this week alone. These are all deeply concerning signs,” Ms Psaki told reporters on Thursday.

Oh no, Jen, you got it all wrong, if you want to see how real "largest manoeuvres" by Russia look like, take a look at Vostok-2018. If Ukraine wants to face this after its whole command, control and communications will be annihilated, sure:

But that will be merely a finishing touch, mopping up of whatever will remain of Kiev regime's shell-shocked, demoralized and scattered forces, including all those "advisers" and volunteers from NATO. This is not a perspective anyone looks forward to, but that is how the armed forces of the 21st Century (Russian ones) will deal with the armed forces which are still stuck in 1990s of the last century, despite all attempts to put a lipstick on a pig. Both Kiev and Washington know that once serious shooting starts it will be Moscow which will be deciding what to do with Ukraine. 

US media may have an excellent expertise in creating a narrative (a euphemism for BS) but Russia has an excellent expertise in combined arms operations, and it is the latter, not the former, which in the end decides the issue, no matter how one tries to spin it. Good that they got the message. As I am on record for years--those people, be that Kiev or Washington, understand only one language or as Crocodile Dundee would say:

Just kids having fun(c). 

Now, jokes aside. A couple of the US Navy ships which should enter the Black Sea soon will be there primarily for recon mission and, possibly, in case the shit hits the fan, providing some data to Ukies. They will be big fat targets for the Russian Navy and attached forces, so I do not expect any serious conflagration, especially with Ukraine having shifted into a rear gear. And now that Ukraine' clown (aka President) is calling for a truce in Donbass (in Russian), one can clearly see that massive military power can decide a lot of issues and be a guarantor of a peace. This, however, doesn't resolve Ukraine's issue but this latest shitstorm gives Russia a good justification for an accelerated integration of LDNR with Russia, while keeping this whole clusterfuck of a situation frozen, which suites Russia just fine for now. As I said, Russia and Russians DON'T care about Ukraine and Ukrainians anymore and that is the only thing, in the end, which matters under these circumstances because, eventually, this Nazi shithole of a country Delenda Est.

Some Points For Today.

Ron Unz published my piece on the situation in the world at Unz Review and you can get acquainted with it there.  Here is some taste:

So, to convince those 447 million EU’s residents that they need America’s protection and weapons, America needs Russia to get into the war in Ukraine and if it will end up with utter destruction, and it will if Russia really decides so, of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and, likely, Ukrainian statehood, so be it. Americans never really cared how many aborigines die, as long as it works for the US bottom line. Or, if one may, a condition of American condition, which is deteriorating steadily because not only the United States increasingly has very little of substance, that is of high value added, to sell to the world, but forming economic and military monster of Eurasia removes the United States from its, grossly exaggerated to start with, self-proclaimed status of global hegemon to the status of, at best, one of the few big shots on the planet. At worst, the United States is removed from Eurasia as a viable competitor and is relegated to a status of a regional power—still powerful relative to its continental neighbors but not having a shot at this second number of 4.67 billion.  

As you may have guessed already--4.67 billion is a population of Asia. And if willing to confirm the posture of Russia which I am describing for the last week or so, Dmitri Kozak--a Deputy Head of President's Administration--nonchalantly stated to the major media that:

Козак: начало боевых действий в Донбассе со стороны Киева станет началом конца Украины

Translation: the initiation of hostilities in Donbass by Kiev will be the end of Ukraine. 

Cannot get any clearer than that, can it? Russia is ready, as I already stated, if need be, to finish the job. And in related news. Amphibious and artillery ships of Caspian Flotilla (in all--10 ships) will start the transfer from Caspian to Black Sea in coming days (in Russian). Guess from three times why these ships (of course, combat training, wink, wink) are being transferred to the Black Sea THROUGH Azov Sea? Right! Azov Sea is very shallow and these guys are perfectly suited for operations in shallow waters.

These little guys pack a massive cannon and MLRS high precision firepower and will have no problems with both sinking whatever Ukraine may have on the surface and with assisting the landing of marines on the shore, just in case. As a result of all these moves by Russia suddenly we have this:

The United States is aware of Russian military movements along the eastern border of Ukraine and supports easing tensions in the region where cease-fire violations have escalated in recent weeks.

No, no, guys, this is not how it works. While there is very little doubt that the United States pushes Ukraine into suicide, let's not forget that many in Ukraine want to obliterate Russian Donbass and if it takes genocide--they are ready to commit it. Now, this clown Zelensky has to decide how he and his regime of fanatical Russophobes will proceed and he is in a Catch 22 situation--damned if you do (attack), damned if you don't. The festering abscess of Ukraine has to be dealt with, because Russia has all means and intentions to deal with it, if it comes to that, in a surgical manner. Without anesthesia. But then again, as I repeat ad nauseam, when one has such an escalation dominance as Russia has, it is not difficult to have many options of response. And yes, people from Kremlin do not speak their "personal opinions" for the press, as it is the case in the US, statements from people of such level as Kozak, who also happened to be Vladimir Putin's personal friend, indicate that the decision has been made and Russia is ready for any contingency.